NFL Anytime Touchdown Strategy: Why Red Zone Usage Beats Luck

There is no more popular bet in sports right now than the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD).

It’s simple, it’s exciting, and the odds are usually juicy (+150, +200, +500).
But for most bettors, picking a touchdown scorer is purely based on “Recency Bias.”

• “Tyreek Hill scored two touchdowns last week, so I’ll bet him to score again.”

This is a losing strategy. Touchdowns are high-variance events. A player can have 150 yards receiving and zero touchdowns because he gets tackled at the 1-yard line. The next week, a backup Tight End catches a 2-yard pass for a score.

If you want to win long-term on ATD props, you need to ignore the Result (Did he score?) and focus entirely on the Opportunity (Did he get the ball in the Green Zone?).

Here is how to use data to find value in the Touchdown market.

What is an Anytime Touchdown Bet?

First, the house rules. An Anytime Touchdown bet requires your player to cross the plane of the goal line with the ball, or catch a pass in the end zone.

• Passing TDs do NOT count. If Patrick Mahomes throws a TD to Travis Kelce, Kelce wins the ATD bet. Mahomes does not. (You would need to bet “Mahomes 1.5+ Passing TDs” for that).
• Defense/Special Teams: Usually separate bets. If a player returns a punt for a TD, his individual ATD bet wins.

The Metric That Matters: “Inside the 10”

Yards are great for fantasy points. They are useless for Touchdown betting.
A 50-yard bomb that gets tackled at the 5-yard line is worth zero for your betting slip.

You need to identify the players who own the High-Value Touches.

1. The “Green Zone” Back (Carries Inside the 5)

Coaches tend to have specific roles for their Running Backs.

• Between the 20s: They might use a fast, explosive back (e.g., Jahmyr Gibbs).
• Inside the 5: They sub in the “Hammer” (e.g., David Montgomery).

If you are betting on an ATD, you don’t care who gets the 40-yard run. You care who gets the ball when the field shrinks.
The Strategy: Look for RBs with a high percentage of the team’s “Carries Inside the 5.” Even if they only have 40 yards rushing total, if they get 3 carries at the goal line, they are a massive value at +120 odds.

2. The Red Zone Target (The Trust Factor)

When the field shrinks, speed matters less, and size/trust matters more.
Field stretching Wide Receivers often disappear in the Red Zone because there is no room to run past the defense.
This is where Tight Ends and Big Body Receivers eat.

The Strategy: Check the “Red Zone Target Share.”
You might see a WR who has 10 targets on the season, but 6 of them came inside the 20-yard line. This player is a prime candidate for a Touchdown bet, even if his yardage prop is low.

The Concept of “Positive Regression”

This is how pros make their money. They bet on players who should have scored but didn’t.

Scenario A:
A Wide Receiver had 10 targets last week. 3 of them were in the end zone. He dropped one, and the defender tipped two away. He finished with 0 Touchdowns.
Public Perception: “He didn’t score. I’m not betting him.”
StatsBench Reality: He had massive opportunity. The ball is going his way. He is Due.

Scenario B:
A Wide Receiver had 1 target last week. He caught a screen pass, broke 3 tackles, and ran 70 yards for a TD.
Public Perception: “He’s explosive! Betting him to score again.”
StatsBench Reality: That was a fluke play. He had zero Red Zone targets. He is a Fade.

The “Vulture” Factor

In the NFL, touchdowns are often stolen by “Vultures.”

• The Taysom Hill Factor: Some teams bring in a gadget player or a Running QB specifically to score at the goal line.
• The Goal Line Vulture: If a team has a rushing QB (like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen), the value of their Running Back’s ATD prop drops significantly. Why? Because inside the 1-yard line, the QB is just as likely to run it in himself.

Strategy:

• Avoid: RBs playing with “Tush Push” Quarterbacks (unless the odds are heavily discounted).
• Target: RBs playing with “Pocket Passer” QBs (like Joe Burrow or Jared Goff). When they get to the 1-yard line, they have to hand it off.

How to Find TD Value on StatsBench

Use the tools to filter out the noise.

1. Check “Red Zone Targets (L5)”: Who has been getting looked at in the last 5 games when the team is in scoring position?
2. Check “Defensive Vulnerability”: Does the opponent allow a high number of TDs to Tight Ends? (Some defenses are great against WRs but terrible against TEs).
3. Check “Implied Team Total”: Only bet ATDs on teams expected to score points. If a team’s Total is 13.5, there might only be 1 touchdown scored all game. Avoid that mess.

Summary

Stop betting on the highlight reel.
A 1-yard plunge counts the same as a 99-yard bomb.
Find the players who get the ball when it matters most. Look for High Red Zone Usage, Goal Line Carries, and Positive Regression candidates who are getting the looks but haven’t found the paint yet.

See Red Zone Usage trends on the Free StatsBench Cheat Sheet

Frequently Asked Questions