Liverpool vs Real Madrid 4.11.2025 Preview
Champions League | Anfield | Tue, Nov 4 | 20:00 GMT
Two European heavyweights collide at Anfield as Arne Slot’s Liverpool look to derail Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid, who sit five points clear in La Liga and have gone a perfect 3-0-0 in Europe so far.
Liverpool ended a rough patch with a composed 2-0 win vs Villa, but now face a Madrid side that has won 13 of its last 14 in all competitions.
🧩 Predicted Lineups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1)
Mamardashvili — Bradley, Konaté, Van Dijk, Robertson — Gravenberch, Mac Allister — Szoboszlai, Salah, Gakpo — Ekitiké
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
Courtois — Carreras, Huijsen, Militão, Camavinga — Tchouaméni, Valverde — Güler, Bellingham, Vinícius Jr. — Mbappé
Liverpool VS Real Madrid -> Click To Reveal Cheat Sheet
🔢 Current Form
| Last 5 (All Comps) | GF / GA | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | W-L-L-W-L | 9 / 10 | 2-0 vs Villa stopped 3-game skid |
| Real Madrid | W-W-W-W-L | 13 / 4 | Mbappé 🔥 18 G + 2 A |
🧩 Tactical & Player Notes
- Slot’s midfield reset (Mac Allister–Gravenberch–Szoboszlai) restored control vs Villa – expect same trio.
- Ekitiké continues at ST with Isak out. Salah & Gakpo flank him.
- Alonso has Madrid playing fluid 4-2-3-1: Camavinga + Tchouaméni anchor, Bellingham free ahead, Vinícius & Mbappé wide/central rotation.
- Alexander-Arnold expected bench cameo; Valverde likely RB cover.
📊 Shots & SOT Trends (L5 matches)
| Team | Top Shooter | Avg Shots P90 | Avg SOT P90 | Over Prop Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | Salah 3.26 sh / 1.24 SOT | 63% Over 3.5 shots hit | 67% Over 1.5 SOT hit | |
| Ekitiké 3.32 sh / 0.98 SOT | 60% Over 2.5 shots | — | ||
| Gakpo 2.83 sh / 0.63 SOT | 50% Over 2.5 shots | 40% Over 0.5 SOT | ||
| Real Madrid | Mbappé 5.84 sh / 3.34 SOT | 80% Over 3.5 shots hit | 80% Over 1.5 SOT hit | |
| Vinícius 4.03 sh / 1.76 SOT | 60% Over 2.5 shots hit | 60% Over 0.5 SOT | ||
| Bellingham 3.56 sh / 2.06 SOT | 75% Over 1.5 SOT hit | 67% Over 0.5 SOT |
📈 Data takeaway:
- Madrid average 9.2 SOT per game in UCL (best in competition).
- Liverpool concede 6+ shots on target per game in last 3 UCL fixtures.
- Expect high-tempo, both sides clearing 12+ total SOT.
🚨 Fouls & Discipline
| Player | Fouls Committed P90 | Fouls Won P90 |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley (LIV) | 1.88 | 0.22 |
| Ekitiké (LIV) | 2.15 | 0.98 |
| Konaté (LIV) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Mastantuono (RMA) | 2.48 | 3.14 |
| Bellingham (RMA) | 2.06 | 2.39 |
| Vinícius (RMA) | 1.01 | 2.90 |
🔹 Bradley (RB) & Vinícius (LW) face each other → 🔥 foul zone.
🔹 Expect Bradley 2+ fouls (avg 1.88, over 1.5 @ 2.25).
🔹 Bellingham to win 2+ fouls priced ~1.70.
💡 Bet Builder Ideas (powered by StatsBench data)
| Leg | Selection | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS – Yes | 3-2 scorelines trend (LIV 3 BTTS in 4 UCL home games) | |
| Liverpool GK 3+ saves | Madrid 37 SOT this UCL season | |
| Vinícius 2+ shots | Hit in 6 straight starts | |
| Bradley 2+ fouls | Defends Mbappé/Vini zone avg 2.0 F P90 |
Combined @ ≈ 3.22 (Boost eligible on Sky Bet)
🧠 Quick Props to Watch
- Salah Over 1.5 SOT @ 2.87 – uptick after Villa goal.
- Mbappé Anytime Goal @ 2.00 – 18 goals in 14 apps.
- Ekitiké Over 2.5 shots @ 2.50 – averages 3.3 P90.
- Bellingham 1+ SOT @ 1.83 – hit 5/6 last.
🏁 StatsBench Verdict
🔮 Liverpool 3 – 2 Real Madrid
Anfield chaos special. Liverpool feed off the atmosphere; Madrid will create more xG, but the Reds’ pressing and Ekitiké’s directness could nick it. Expect end-to-end, high-SOT, card-heavy fixture.
📊 Expected Total Shots: 27-30 | Total Fouls: 22-26 | xG: 3.9 combined