Date: Monday, Nov 3, 2025 — Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Line: Cowboys -3.5 | Total: 53.5
Reveal Cheat Sheet
Matchup Snapshot
Two teams with plenty to prove meet under the lights — Dallas (3–4–1) aims to bounce back from a blowout in Denver, while Arizona (2–5) looks to end a five-game skid after the bye.
Dallas remains unbeaten at home but has leaked big plays defensively, ranking 31st in pass yards allowed (273 YPG). Arizona hasn’t fared much better, sitting 30th in rush defense (146 YPG). Expect offense — and fireworks.
| Metric | DAL Offense | ARI Offense |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards/Game | 278 (1st) | 242 (13th) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 124 (12th) | 102 (22nd) |
| Points/Game | 29.4 (2nd) | 21.3 (19th) |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 47% (5th) | 42% (10th) |
Jacoby Brissett gets the start again with Kyler Murray still nursing a foot injury. He’s quietly thrown 4 TDs over his last two games and faces the NFL’s second-worst pass defense.
Dak Prescott leads the league in QBR and has gone 3+ passing TDs in 4 of his last 8.
CeeDee Lamb (82.5-yard line) has topped 80+ yards in back-to-back games, and George Pickens has quietly become Prescott’s go-to vertical threat.
Best Bets & Props (StatsBench Model Edge)
| Player | Prop | Line | Hit% (L10) | Model Edge | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Passing TDs | 2.5 (+164) | 60% | +0.8 | Over 2.5 TDs |
| George Pickens | Receptions | 4.5 (-114) | 60% | +0.4 | Over 4.5 Recs |
| Jacoby Brissett | Passing Yards | 243.5 (-112) | 70% | +19.8 | Over 243.5 Yds |
| Kyler Murray | Rush Yards | 25.5 (-110) | 60% | +6.2 | Over 25.5 Yds |
| Zonovan Knight | Rush Attempts | 12.5 (+100) | 40% | -2.8 | Under 12.5 Att |
| CeeDee Lamb | Targets | 9.5 (-137) | 50% | -0.7 | Lean Under |
Advanced Notes
- Arizona WR Greg Dortch has quietly posted 70% hit rate on his rec yards line (8.5) — sneaky flex play or DFS value.
- Dallas TE Luke Schoonmaker has hit his 0.5 receptions line in 6 straight, ideal for ladder parlays.
- Ryan Flournoy’s 10.5-yard line remains low; he’s averaging 20.3 yards over the last 3.
Game Prediction
Both teams rank bottom-10 in pass defense — this shapes up as a shootout unless red-zone inefficiency kills drives.
Projected Score:
Cowboys 31 – Cardinals 27
✅ Lean: Over 53.5
✅ Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (slight edge home)
✅ MVP: Dak Prescott (3 TDs, 280+ yards)