If you look at any sportsbook on a Sunday morning, you will see a tempting option called a Teaser.
It feels like a cheat code. You get to move the line 6 points in your favor?
- Instead of the Chiefs -7, you get them at -1?
- Instead of the Cowboys +2, you get them at +8?
It seems like free money. But sportsbooks aren’t in the business of handing out free money. While NFL teasers can be one of the most profitable strategies in sports betting, NBA teasers are essentially a “math tax” on unsuspecting bettors.
Here is the data-driven guide on when to play a teaser, and when to run away.
What is a Teaser?
A teaser is a type of parlay where you adjust the point spread or total for two or more teams in your favor. In exchange for these “easier” lines, the payout is lower than a standard parlay.
Standard 2-Team NFL Teaser (6 Points):
- Line Move: 6 Points
- Odds: Usually -120 or -130 (depending on the book)
- Requirement: Both teams must cover the new adjusted line.
The NFL Strategy: The “Wong Teaser”
In the NFL, points are scarce. Games are often decided by “Key Numbers”—specifically 3 (a field goal) and 7 (a touchdown). Roughly 25% of all NFL games end with a margin of 3 or 7 points.
Because these numbers are so common, being able to “cross” them is mathematically powerful. This is the foundation of the Stanford Wong Strategy.
The Rules of a Profitable NFL Teaser:
- Cross the 3 and the 7: You only bet teasers that move a line through these key numbers.
- Teasing a Favorite: Move a -7.5 or -8.5 favorite down to -1.5 or -2.5. (You capture the 3 and 7 win margins).
- Teasing an Underdog: Move a +1.5 or +2.5 underdog up to +7.5 or +8.5. (You capture the 3 and 7 loss margins).
- Never Tease Through Zero: Moving a line from -3 to +3 is mathematically wasted value because NFL games rarely end in a tie.
Why You Should AVOID NBA Teasers
If it works in the NFL, why not the NBA?
The answer is variance and volume.
In the NFL, 6 points is huge. It’s two full scoring possessions (Field Goals).
In the NBA, 6 points is nothing. It is two three-pointers. A 6-point lead can vanish in 45 seconds.
The “Possession” Problem:
- NFL: ~10-12 possessions per game. A 6-point move covers ~15% of the game’s scoring variance.
- NBA: ~100 possessions per game. A 4 or 5-point teaser moves the line by a tiny fraction of the total variance.
The Math:
Sportsbooks charge a “premium” (juice) for teasers. In the NBA, the frequency of a team covering a teased line does not overcome the extra juice you pay. Over the long run, betting NBA teasers is a negative expected value (-EV) strategy.
Better Alternative for NBA:
If you like a team but want a safer line, don’t play a teaser. Instead, look for an Alternative Spread or buy The Hook. Or, use StatsBench to find a prop bet with a higher edge.
Summary: The Golden Rules of Teasers
Before you lock in that teaser for this weekend:
- Stick to the NFL. The math supports football; it fights against basketball.
- Hunt Key Numbers. Only move lines that cross the 3 and the 7.
- Check the “Push” Rules. Some books count a “Push” (tie) as a loss in a teaser. Others drop it to a single bet. Read our guide on Push rules here to know your book’s rules.
Want to find lines that don’t need teasing?
Use the StatsBench Market Tool to find disparities in lines across different sportsbooks.