Player prop insights powered by StatsBench models. Data reflects last-10 game averages, opponent defensive ranks, and hit-rate trends.
1. Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears
Key Edges:
- Joe Flacco — Pass Completions o22.5 (+2.4 edge, 70 % hit)
- Noah Fant — Rec Yds o21.5 (+13.3, 90 %)
Analysis:
Flacco’s short-game rhythm continues against a Bears defense ranking #13 vs pass completions but vulnerable in zone gaps. Expect consistent mid-range volume. Noah Fant draws a strong matchup, posting a +13.3-yard edge and 90 % hit rate — ideal for short-field synergy.
2. Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Top Edge:
- J.J. McCarthy (MIN) — Rush Yds o 20.5 (+4.5 Edge | 100 % Hit)
- Jalen Nailor (MIN) — Rec Yds o 18.5 (+14.4 Edge | 80 % Hit)
Lean:
- Jared Goff (DET) — Pass Yds o 240.5 (+7.3 Edge | 50 % Hit | vs #7 DEF)
Analysis:
Goff projects a slight yardage advantage but just a 50 % hit rate facing Minnesota’s elite #7 pass-yards defense. It’s more of a volume-dependent lean than a confident over. Meanwhile, McCarthy and Nailor both hold strong positional value against Detroit’s mid-tier secondary — making the Vikings side more actionable for props.
3. Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
Key Edges:
- Josh Jacobs — Anytime TD (+0.4 edge, 90 % hit)
- Chuba Hubbard — Rush Yds o 20.5 (+39.6 edge, 100 %)
Analysis:
Jacobs remains the red-zone focal point, facing a Carolina front allowing #23 in rush TDs per game. Hubbard’s +39.6 edge and perfect hit streak make him the slate’s top rushing value despite Green Bay’s #3 rush defense — his line is simply too low to fade.
4. Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
Key Edges:
- C.J. Stroud — Pass Yds u 226.5 (−6.5 edge)
- Courtland Sutton — Rec Yds o 55.5 (+15.4 edge, 80 %)
Analysis:
Stroud projects below average facing Denver’s #12 pass-defense rank; expect controlled pacing. Sutton, however, carries strong over value with +15.4 yards, thriving on Denver’s structured play-action looks and red-zone targets.
5. New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons
Key Edges:
- Mac Jones — Pass Yds o 242.5 (+11.2 edge)
- Drake Maye — Pass Yds u 227.5 (−13.2 edge)
Analysis:
Jones gets the cleanest passing signal on the board — +11.2 edge and neutral trend versus Atlanta’s #23 pass-defense rank. Rookie Maye continues to show volatility; fade his line against a zone-heavy Atlanta scheme that limits vertical windows.
6. New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Key Edges:
- Brian Robinson — Rush Yds o 15.5 (+10.2 edge, 70 %)
Analysis:
Robinson’s short-yardage burst pairs well with San Fran’s #11 rush-yards-allowed profile; Fant’s quick-hit routes again surface as high-probability options. Expect low tempo but clean prop value.
7. Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Key Edges:
- Cam Ward — Pass Yds u 203.5 (−1.6, 63 %)
- Justin Herbert — Rush Yds o 16.5 (+12.5, 70 %)
- Tony Pollard — Rush Yds o 39.5 (+12.6, 70 %)
Analysis:
Ward’s negative edge aligns with a Chargers defense ranked #8 vs QB yards. Herbert’s mobility offers +12.5 edge value as Tennessee’s containment ranks #16 vs QB rush, while Pollard’s +12.6 edge marks him a fringe flex target in dual-back setups.
8. Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Key Edges:
- Josh Allen — Pass TDs o 1.5 (+0.1 edge, 70 %)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster — Rec Yds o 11.5 (+25 edge, 90 %)
- Ty Johnson — Rush Yds o 5.5 (+10.3 edge, 80 %)
Analysis:
Allen remains steady in high-total environments; Chiefs’ secondary ranks #4 vs TDs allowed, capping ceiling but keeping base value. JuJu’s +25 edge and 90 % hit rate stand out if he’s active, while Ty Johnson’s small-line rush prop looks mispriced given Kansas City’s #7 RB-yards ranking.
9. Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Edges:
- Jakobi Meyers — Rec Yds o 48.5 (+12.8 edge, 60 %)
- Travis Etienne — Rec Yds o 13.5 (+1.5 edge, 50 %)
Analysis:
Meyers continues to draw reliable mid-depth usage and faces a Jacksonville secondary ranked #26 in pass yards allowed, which inflates his ceiling slightly. Etienne’s short-yard targets offer a modest +EV bump in a matchup where the Raiders allow 103.4 rush yds (#13) but 239.6 pass yds (#21) per game — expect him to benefit more through screens and check-downs than raw carries.
10. Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Key Edges:
- Tyler Higbee — Rec Yds o 15.5 (+13.3 edge, 70 %)
- Juwan Johnson — Rec Yds o 35.5 (+15.9 edge, 70 %)
Analysis:
Both tight ends project favorably here: Higbee’s +13-yard edge aligns with a Saints defense ranked #21 vs rush yds but top-10 vs pass efficiency, forcing Stafford to rely on quick outs. Johnson’s +15.9 edge stems from steady red-zone involvement and the Rams’ #17 pass defense, making this one of the stronger correlated TE overs on the slate.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Key Edges:
- Pat Freiermuth — Rec Yds o 19.5 (+16.5 edge, 50 %)
- Jonathan Taylor — Rush Yds o 96.5 (+18.7 edge, 60 %)
Analysis:
Freiermuth’s +16.5 edge stands out against an Indy defense ranked #30 in pass yards allowed (271.6 / game), giving him solid upside if the Steelers lean on short-area routes. Taylor’s +18.7 edge lines up perfectly versus Pittsburgh’s #18 rush defense (112.7 yds allowed), and with the Colts ranking #3 in rush attempts, he projects as the primary efficiency anchor in this matchup.
Best of luck!
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