📅 Thursday, Nov 7 — 8:15 PM ET (2:15 AM CET)
📍 Empower Field at Mile High
📊 Line: Broncos -9 | Total: 43 | Moneyline: DEN -500 / LV +375
Denver Broncos vs Raiders Cheat Sheet -> Click to Reveal
Context: A Division Battle of Opposites
The Denver Broncos (7–2) have quietly become one of the NFL’s best stories. After years of quarterback instability, rookie Bo Nix has brought calm to the chaos — and late-game magic. Denver has pulled off four fourth-quarter comebacks during its six-game win streak, sitting tied for the best record in football.
That surge has the Broncos alone atop the AFC West, ahead of the Chargers and Chiefs, as they chase their first division crown — and playoff run — since their 2015 Super Bowl season.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders (2–6) continue to sink. The new Carroll–Geno Smith reunion hasn’t sparked the offense, and turnovers (Smith’s league-leading 11 INTs) have sabotaged an otherwise respectable defense. Four of Vegas’ six losses have come by two scores or more.
“When you play a big-time team like these guys, you have to answer in all phases,” coach Pete Carroll said this week.
“We’re treating it like a championship opportunity.”
Betting Lines & Records
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV Raiders | 2–6 | 3–5 | 4–4 | 1–3 (A) |
| DEN Broncos | 7–2 | 4–4–1 | 3–6 | 4–0 (H) |
Series: Raiders lead all-time 76-53-2, but Denver swept last year (34-18, 29-19) to end an 8-game skid.
Last Week: LV lost 30-29 to Jacksonville, DEN edged Houston 18-15.
Why Denver’s Surge Feels Sustainable
Forget the highlight reels — Denver’s winning formula starts with defense.
- #1 overall defense in total yards allowed (279.9 YPG)
- #1 in yards per play (4.8)
- 40 team sacks, the most in the NFL, with 14 different players recording at least one
- Opponents converting just 19.8% on 3rd down
Coordinator Vance Joseph’s aggressive rotations, coupled with additions Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, have made the middle of the field impenetrable. Even without CB Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos’ pass defense ranks 6th.
On offense, Nix’s composure has masked growing pains. His 17 TDs and steady QB rating are nice, but what separates him is situational poise: Denver leads the NFL in 4th-quarter scoring over its last six games.
Running backs J.K. Dobbins (eight 60+ yard games) and RJ Harvey have provided enough balance — especially in screen packages — to keep defenses honest.
Raiders: Searching for Answers
The Raiders expected the Carroll-Smith reunion to bring veteran stability, not growing pains. Instead:
- Offense ranks: 30th total, 29th rush, 24th pass, 29th scoring
- Turnover differential: -5
- Smith’s 11 INTs tied for NFL lead
Trading Jakobi Meyers only heightens the pressure on Tre Tucker, who’s having a career-best year (32 receptions, 427 yards, 4 TDs). Tight end Brock Bowers erupted last week with 12-127-3 against Jacksonville — but now faces Denver’s elite linebacking core without Surtain in coverage.
“Jakobi was such an impact player,” said OC Chip Kelly. “Now it has to be multiple guys stepping up.”
The problem? That list is short — and the Broncos’ defensive disguise packages have forced veteran QBs into mistakes all season.
Key Matchups
| Matchup | Edge | Why it Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix vs. LV Secondary | 🎯 Denver | Raiders allow 237 pass yds/game (#19); Nix excels at layered play-action. |
| Ashton Jeanty vs. DEN Front | 🔒 Denver | 93 rush yds allowed/game (#8); Jeanty’s efficiency may stall early. |
| Brock Bowers vs. Greenlaw/Hufanga | ⚖️ Neutral | DEN linebackers elite in coverage; Bowers’ YAC ability key to LV’s hopes. |
| Tre Tucker vs. DEN CB2 | 💥 Vegas | With Surtain out, Tucker gets a favorable matchup on go/fade routes. |
What the Numbers Say
| Category | Raiders (Rank) | Broncos (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per Play | 5.2 (26th) | 5.6 (Off. 13th) |
| Yards Allowed | 283.2 (30th) | 279.9 (3rd) |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 109 (16th) | 93 (8th) |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 237 (19th) | 186.8 (6th) |
| Sack Differential | -17 (29th) | +31 (1st all-time thru 9 games) |
Denver’s plus-31 sack differential isn’t a typo — it’s the largest after nine games in NFL history.
That alone explains why bookmakers have pushed this spread to -9 despite modest offensive metrics.
StatsBench Prop Edges
| Player | Market Line | Avg | Edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix Rush Yards | 21.5 | 25.0 | +3.5 | LV gives up scrambles; QB design runs near red zone. |
| Courtland Sutton Rec Yards | 58.5 | 64.1 | +5.6 | Leads DEN in RZ targets; 70% hit L10. |
| Tre Tucker Rec Yards | 46.5 | 47.5 | +1.0 | WR1 role solidified post-Meyers trade. |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 15.5 | +1.0 | Game script dependent, early down usage stable. |
X-Factors
- Dre Greenlaw (DEN) – Back from injury, 14 tackles + 1 sack in limited snaps. His sideline-to-sideline speed could erase Bowers’ seam routes.
- Brock Bowers (LV) – First TE in NFL history with five 10-catch games within two seasons. Must replicate last week’s dominance for LV to stay alive.
- RJ Harvey (DEN) – Sneaky DFS/fantasy flex; five catches for 51 yards last week, becoming a reliable check-down target.
Trends to Know
- Denver has covered four straight at home (9-game home win streak overall).
- Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven division games.
- Unders have hit in 6 of Denver’s 9 games, but total edges now narrow with improving red-zone rate.
- Denver has allowed zero touchdowns in four separate games this season.
Prediction & Betting Summary
Projected Score:
🟣 Broncos 27, Raiders 20
| Pick | Bet Type | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders +10 (-110) | Spread | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Key number + situational edge |
| Over 42.5 (-110) | Total | ⭐⭐⭐ | Projection 44.2 pts |
| Bo Nix Over 21.5 Rush Yds (-110) | Prop | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Designed QB usage + LV man coverage |
| Courtland Sutton 50+ Rec Yds (-125) | Prop | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 70% L10 hit rate |
| Tre Tucker Over 40.5 Rec Yds (-110) | Prop | ⭐⭐⭐ | Expanded role |
| Ashton Jeanty Over 14.5 Rush Att (-115) | Prop | ⭐⭐ | Volume-based value |
Final Word
The Raiders may compete early, but Denver’s composure and defensive suffocation should tell the story late.
Expect another controlled home win — not flashy, just efficient — keeping the Broncos’ playoff push alive while the Raiders’ rebuild talk gets louder.