Today’s data-backed board
These MLB prop picks today come straight off StatsBench game logs for August 23, 2026. This page gets refreshed daily, so the lines, hit rates and prices you see below are the ones our data pulled this morning. Everything here is research, not a tip sheet. You still shop the number and decide.
Seven picks today, all on the over. Three games carry most of the board (BAL vs TB, NYY vs TOR, PHI vs STL), so read the correlation notes before you build anything into a parlay.
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 singles (TB @ BAL)
Simpson has gone over in 100% of recent games (10/10), with the last 5 also at 100%. Against Baltimore he’s 100% across 6 meetings, which is about as clean as a head-to-head sample gets at this price.
The recent-form gap sits at +39.8% versus the de-vigged market number, and it’s priced -186 at DraftKings. That gap is huge because the sample is only 10 games, so treat it as a reason to shop the price rather than proof of a monster edge. Simpson’s whole profile is contact and speed, which is exactly the skill set that keeps a 0.5 singles line alive even on a quiet night.
Alejandro Kirk over 0.5 hits (TOR @ NYY)
Kirk is 10/10 in recent games and 5/5 over the last five, so the trend lines agree instead of fighting each other. He’s also gone over in 100% of 5 meetings with the Yankees.
Price is -204 at DraftKings with a +37.2% recent-form gap. Toronto’s lineup is thinner than usual with Addison Barger on the 60-day IL until February 2027, which keeps Kirk locked into a middle-order spot rather than getting the odd rest day in a stacked card. Note the correlation: this is the same player as pick 7 below, and the same game as picks 9 and 12.
Pete Alonso over 0.5 hits (BAL vs TB)
Alonso has cleared this in 100% of recent games (10/10), 100% over the last 5, and 100% in 6 career-recent meetings with Tampa Bay. The recent-form gap is +33.4% at a price of -245 on DraftKings.
That’s a chalky number and the juice eats most of the value, which is the honest read here. Baltimore is also without Ryan Mountcastle (60-day IL, return listed 2026-09-21), so Alonso is the one true middle-of-the-order bat pitchers have to work around. If you play it, play it small at that price.
Bryce Harper over 0.5 walks (PHI vs STL)
Harper has walked at least once in 90% of recent games (9/10), though the last 5 cools to 80%. Against St. Louis he’s at 80% across 5 meetings, so the matchup history backs the trend without inflating it.
The price is basically a coin flip at -103 with a +43% recent-form gap, and that combination is the most interesting thing on the board. Walk props are stickier than hit props because they don’t need contact luck, just plate discipline and pitchers who don’t want to challenge him. Correlation warning: this and pick 6 are both Harper, so one at-bat log drives both.
Bryce Harper over 0.5 runs (PHI vs STL)
Same hitter, different route. Harper scored in 90% of recent games (9/10) and all 5 of his last 5, but the head-to-head is the soft spot: only 60% over 5 meetings against the Cardinals.
That’s the disagreement worth flagging. Current form is red hot, the matchup history is average, and the +42.7% recent-form gap at -104 is calculated off just 10 games. Runs also depend on the bats behind him, so this one carries more game-script risk than the walks prop. Stacking both Harper legs multiplies the same risk instead of spreading it.
Alejandro Kirk over 0.5 singles (TOR @ NYY)
Kirk’s singles version hits in 90% of recent games (9/10) with a perfect 100% over the last 5, so he’s trending up, not fading. Versus the Yankees it’s 80% across 5 meetings.
You’re paying -119 at DraftKings for a +39.7% recent-form gap, which is a much friendlier price than his -204 hits line. That’s the line-shopping lesson in one row: the same underlying skill priced two different ways. Pick one Kirk leg, not both, because they resolve off the same night.
Alec Burleson over 0.5 hits (STL @ PHI)
Burleson has gone over in 90% of recent games (9/10) and 100% of his last 5, with a perfect 100% across 5 meetings against Philadelphia. The recent-form gap reads +29.5% at -183 on DraftKings.
St. Louis is also missing Ramon Urias (60-day IL, return 2026-08-25), which keeps Burleson’s spot in the order secure rather than rotating. The gap is smaller than the Harper legs, but it’s built on a rising last-5 and a clean head-to-head, and that’s a healthier combination than a big number off a fading trend.
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits (NYY vs TOR)
Bellinger has hit safely in 90% of recent games (9/10) and 100% of the last 5, so the short-term trend is stronger than the ten-game rate. The recent-form gap is +26.9% at a fairly steep -207.
Context matters here. With Aaron Judge on the 60-day IL (return listed 2026-09-18) and Giancarlo Stanton on the 10-day IL (return 2026-09-22), Bellinger is carrying far more of the Yankees’ run production than he normally would. More plate appearances in a premium lineup spot is the quiet part of this number. He’s also in the same game as both Kirk legs and Kazuma Okamoto, so those four are correlated.
How to handle the correlated legs on this MLB prop picks today board
Three games produce almost everything above. Here’s the short version of what ties together:
- Same player: Kirk (2 and 7), Harper (5 and 6).
- Same game, BAL vs TB: Simpson (1) and Alonso (3).
- Same game, NYY vs TOR: Kirk (2, 7), Okamoto (9), Bellinger (12).
- Same game, PHI vs STL: Harper (5, 6), Burleson (10).
Parlaying correlated props feels like diversification. It isn’t. One rain delay, one early hook, one 2-hour lineup change and several legs die together.
One row we’re deliberately not headlining
Pete Alonso’s total bases over 1.5 shows 90% recent (9/10), 80% in the last 5, 100% vs Tampa Bay across 6 meetings, and a +44.8% recent-form gap at +107. Plus money on something that’s hit nine of ten is a red flag, not a gift. That usually means a stale line or a data quirk, so verify the current price at your book before you touch it. His hits-runs-RBIs over 1.5 (9/10 recent, 80% L5, 100% vs TB, +37.5% gap, -128) is the cleaner version of the same idea, and both are still just Alonso having one good night.
How StatsBench builds these numbers
Hit rate is simple: we count how often a player actually cleared that exact line in his real recent game logs, over the last 10 games and the last 5, plus his logs against today’s opponent. No projections, no black box.
The “recent-form gap” is the last-10 over rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability at the listed book. De-vigging strips the juice out of the price so you’re comparing to a fair number, not a padded one. A 10-game sample overstates that gap every time. Real validated long-run edges are single digits, so a +40% gap is a signal to go shop the line across books, not a reason to bet bigger.
Prices shown are DraftKings at the time this page was built. They move. Check the live number on the card before you do anything.
Responsible gambling
21+ only, and only where legal. Nothing on this page is a guarantee, and no hit rate predicts tomorrow. Even a genuine edge loses plenty of nights, because variance over a short run is brutal. Bet money you can afford to lose, keep it fun, and if it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often is this MLB props page updated?
Daily. The same URL gets refreshed each morning with a new board, new lines and new hit rates. Today’s version is dated August 23, 2026.
What does the ‘recent-form gap’ actually mean?
It’s the player’s last-10 over rate minus the de-vigged, market-implied probability at the listed sportsbook. It measures recent form against the price, nothing more. A 10-game sample inflates it, so treat a big gap as a prompt to shop the line.
Why are all the picks on the over?
Every hit rate StatsBench publishes here is the over side of the line, and the embedded data cards show that same side. Presenting a pick as the under would contradict the data attached to it.
Is it safe to parlay these picks together?
Be careful. Several legs share a player (Kirk, Harper, Alonso) or a game (BAL vs TB, NYY vs TOR, PHI vs STL). Stacking correlated props multiplies the same risk instead of spreading it.
Why skip a prop that hit 9 of 10 games at plus money?
Because books rarely leave plus money on a market that keeps cashing. That usually points to a stale line or a data quirk. Verify the current price yourself before treating it as an opportunity.