This page updates every day with a fresh batch of MLB prop picks today, pulled straight from real recent game logs. Today is July 9, 2026, and the board below reflects the latest slate. Bookmark it, because tomorrow’s picks will look different.
Every prop below is presented as the over, since that’s the side the hit rate and edge numbers describe. StatsBench doesn’t hand out locks. It shows you where a player’s recent performance and the sportsbook line don’t line up, then lets you decide what to do with that gap.
Today’s MLB prop picks (data-backed)
These are the highest-edge props from today’s slate, ranked by how often the player has cleared the line recently and how far off the market seems to be. Each one includes the exact hit rate, edge, and odds so you can check the math yourself.
Bryce Miller (SEA @ MIA) – Strikeouts over 5.5
Miller has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in 6 of his last 6 outings, a perfect 100% hit rate. That’s a +39.8% edge against a market pricing the over at -151 on DraftKings. A perfect recent sample doesn’t guarantee game seven looks the same, but it’s the kind of gap the Positive EV Scanner exists to flag.
Shea Langeliers (OAK @ DET) – Strikeouts over 0.5
Langeliers has recorded at least one strikeout in all 10 of his last 10 games. That’s another 100% hit rate, with a +33.4% edge and the over sitting at -199 on DraftKings. Steep odds, sure, but a batter strikeout prop at 0.5 is often about volume and matchup more than raw power.
Kody Clemens (MIN vs CLE) – RBIs over 0.5
Clemens has driven in a run in 9 of his last 10 games, a 90% hit rate. The edge here is the biggest on the board at +52.7%, and the plus-money odds (+168 on DraftKings) make it worth a second look even with one recent miss in the sample.
Liam Hicks (MIA vs SEA) – Hits + runs + RBIs over 1.5
Hicks has cleared 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs in 9 of his last 10 games. That’s a 90% hit rate with a +38.8% edge, priced at -105 on DraftKings. A combo prop like this smooths out some of the game-to-game noise you’d see in a single hits or RBIs line.
Victor Bericoto (SF vs COL) – Hits over 0.5
Bericoto has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, also a 90% hit rate, good for a +33.1% edge. The over is priced at -132 on DraftKings. Simple prop, simple read: he’s been getting a hit almost every night and the line hasn’t fully caught up.
Isaac Collins (KC @ NYM) – Hits over 0.5
Collins has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, a 90% hit rate and a +28.5% edge, priced at -160 on BetMGM. Consistent contact from the top or middle of a lineup is exactly what this kind of prop is built to catch.
Mike Trout (LAA @ TEX) – Hits over 0.5
Trout has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, a 90% hit rate with a +26.5% edge. The over sits at -174 on DraftKings. Even in a down year for the Angels, Trout’s bat-to-ball ability keeps this line beatable more nights than not.
Steven Kwan (CLE @ MIN) – Hits over 0.5
Kwan has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games as well, a 90% hit rate and a +24.1% edge. The over is priced at -193 on DraftKings. Kwan’s contact rate is one of the best in baseball, which is why this number keeps showing up on the board.
How StatsBench builds these numbers
Every hit rate and edge you see above comes from real recent game logs, not a projection model guessing at the future. StatsBench pulls a player’s last several games, checks how often they cleared the current line, and compares that rate to the odds posted across roughly 60 sportsbooks. When the gap between recent form and the market price is big enough, it shows up as an edge on the Pro Cheatsheet and inside Prop Finder.
Key takeaway: a high hit rate over a small sample is a signal, not a promise. Ten games is ten games. That’s why StatsBench shows the sample size next to every number instead of hiding it.
A quick note on responsible betting
Nothing here is a guarantee. Sports betting involves real variance, and even a 90% recent hit rate can miss tonight. This content is for research purposes and is meant for adults 21 and older. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and treat it as entertainment, not income. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Want the full list before first pitch?
This page only covers a slice of today’s board. Grab the free cheatsheet for the rest of tonight’s high-hit-rate props, sorted and ready before the first game starts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best MLB prop picks today?
Today’s standout is Bryce Miller’s strikeouts over 5.5, which has hit in 6 of his last 6 starts for a +39.8% edge. Several hits-over-0.5 props from Victor Bericoto, Mike Trout, and Steven Kwan are also at a 90% recent hit rate.
How does StatsBench calculate hit rate and edge?
StatsBench looks at a player’s recent game logs, counts how often they cleared the current betting line, and compares that rate to the odds available across roughly 60 sportsbooks. The difference between recent form and market price is what shows up as the edge.
Are these picks guaranteed to hit?
No. A high recent hit rate describes the past, not the future, and every prop carries real variance. Treat this as research to combine with your own judgment, not a guaranteed outcome.
Why are all the props shown as the over?
The hit rate, edge, and odds in this snapshot all describe the over side of each line, so every pick here is framed that way for accuracy.
How often does this page update?
This exact page refreshes daily with a new slate of props, so the picks you see today won’t be the same ones you see tomorrow.