Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings

Line: BAL -4 | Total: 48.5–49
Kick: Sun 1:00 ET, U.S. Bank Stadium

Ravens @ Vikings -> Cheat sheet

Quick view (for bettors)

Projection lean: Tight, slightly high-scoring game.

Momentum: Both QBs returned and won in Week 9. Lamar looked healthy and vertical; McCarthy accounted for 3 TDs.

Totals trend: Ravens games 6–3–1 Over last 10.

How the matchup sets up

Baltimore offense vs. Minnesota defense

Baltimore’s identity this month is simple: Lamar + Derrick Henry. Featuring Henry (19+ carries in three straight) stabilizes early downs, and Lamar’s legs punish man looks.
Minnesota’s defense is scrappy at home but gives up explosive plays when forced to defend the QB run for four quarters. Red-zone rate and late downs favor Baltimore when Lamar is healthy.

Minnesota offense vs. Baltimore defense

McCarthy has been decisive on designed movement and quick game. When Minnesota stays on schedule, they can stack first downs and feed Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Baltimore’s speed in the middle (Kyle Hamilton) and new juice up front make the margin thin for a rookie QB. One mistake flips field position.

Props I’m playing (Last-10 hit rates from your sheets)

Ravens

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Pass TDs — Avg 2.5, 90% hit, strong edge.
Lamar Jackson Over 38.5 Rush Yds — Avg 47.2, +8.7 vs line.
Derrick Henry Anytime TD — Rush TD avg 0.9 last 10.

Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Over 0.5 INT — Avg 1.3, 100% hit.
Jordan Addison Over 3.5 Receptions (or Targets 5.5 Over) — Averages 4.5 rec / 7.3 targets; 60–80% hit.
Jalen Nailor Over 20.5 Receiving Yds — Avg 26.4, 70% hit.
Aaron Jones Sr. Over 40.5 Rush Yds — Avg 50.5, 70% hit. (Keep an eye on shoulder/toe status.)

Side & Total

Over 48.5 (0.35u) — Both teams have clear scoring paths (BAL ground + QB legs; MIN volume passing).
Live MIN +7.5 or better if Baltimore opens with a lead. Pre-kick, I’m closer to BAL -3 than -4.

Card (units = confidence)

Lamar o1.5 Pass TDs — 0.7u
Lamar o38.5 Rush Yds — 0.5u
Henry Anytime TD — 0.4u
McCarthy o0.5 INT — 0.5u
Addison o3.5 Receptions — 0.35u (or o5.5 Targets if offered)
Nailor o20.5 Rec Yds — 0.25u
Over 48.5 — 0.35u

Same-Game Parlay

Lamar 2+ Pass TDs
Lamar 40+ Rush Yds
Derrick Henry Anytime TD
Jordan Addison 4+ Receptions

Longshot SGP (Lotto)

Lamar 2+ Pass TDs
Lamar 50+ Rush Yds
Derrick Henry 2+ TDs
McCarthy 1+ INT

Injury/Status notes to check pre-kick

MIN RB Aaron Jones Sr. (shoulder/toe) — if full go, keep rush over; if limited, skip.
BAL OL health (Ronnie Stanley often managed) — any late scratch would slightly bump Lamar rush and the Over on sacks/pressures, but I’m staying on the TD/Rush yards angles.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: TB -2.5 | Total: 48–48.5
Kick: Sun 1:00 ET, Raymond James Stadium

Patriots @ Buccaneers — cheat sheet

Read on the matchup

Pass funnel on both sides. NE are elite vs the run (~75 rush yds allowed) but below-avg vs the pass (~237). TB are top-10 vs the run (~93) and bottom-eight vs the pass (~253). Expect throw rates above baseline.
Drake Maye’s efficiency travels. Last 5 full: 259/282/222/261/273 yards, 10 TD/2 INT season run; 74% completion. NE live in the intermediate windows that Tampa concedes.
Baker off the bye, but light on weapons. Knee/oblique trending up; still no Chris Godwin Jr., run game 24th. If Tampa can’t run, Baker faces a top-6 NE sack rate on longer downs.
Hidden yards lean NE. Pats own a top-5 FG% and punt-return edge; small but real in a tight total.

Betting card

NE +2.5 (buy to +3 if you can) — Matchup favors Maye’s efficiency vs TB’s pass D; NE’s run D forces Baker one-dimensional.
ML sprinkle: New England — Field-goal game profile.
Total: Lean Over 48.5 (pass-heavy scripts + red-zone upticks). If you want safety, Over 44.5 in parlays.

Player props (L10 data from your sheets)

Drake Maye Over 1.5 Pass TDs — 70% hit L10; TB allow 1.4 pass TD/g and explosive Y/A.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Pass TDs — 70% hit L10; NE are best attacked through the air.
Drake Maye Over 5.5 Rush Attempts — 60% hit, 5.9 avg; man looks open lanes on 3rd-and-medium.
Austin Hooper Over 14.5 Receiving Yards — 20.1 avg, +5.6 edge, 60% hit; TE usage vs two-high looks.

Same-game parlay (build around pass scripts)

Maye 1+ Pass TD • Baker 1+ Pass TD • Over 44.5 (alt) • Hooper 10+ Rec Yds

Luck-shot ladder (high payout)

Maye 2+ Pass TDs • Maye 25+ Rush Yds • NE ML
Correlated with a shootout where Maye’s legs extend drives.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Line: CAR -5.5 | Total: 38.5
Kick: Sun 1:00 ET, Bank of America Stadium

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers – cheat sheet

Handicap

Form & context: Carolina are 5–4 (6–3 ATS) and finally playing winning, low-variance football. New Orleans are 1–8 (3–7 ATS) and just traded pieces; they’re starting rookie Tyler Shough again behind a banged-up OL (RT Taliese Fuaga out).
Matchup lean—Car run game vs NO front: Panthers’ offense leans run (139.8 rush yds/g, top-5; 29.9 rush att/g, top-3). Saints’ defense is allowing 129.4 rush yds/g and 10.4 yards/comp with a 105.3 opponent QB rating, so you can stay balanced and still find explosives off play-action.
Saints offense problems: Last in scoring (15.3 ppg) with bottom-tier efficiency across the board; QB carousel has produced 4 TD / 6 INT in recent games. If Carolina plays clean, NO will struggle to reach 20.
Panthers defense trend: Average overall but opportunistic, with multiple recent impact games from the secondary (Tre’von Moehrig DPOW). That’s a decent fit versus a rookie QB making his second start on the road.
Totals angle: Both teams rank bottom-10 in pace late (fourth-quarter scoring: NO 3.3 ppg, CAR 7.8 but often via ground control). Market total at 38.5 is tight; Carolina’s run rate + NO’s offensive ceiling points me slightly Under unless you expect short fields.

Betting Card (lean → strongest last)

Under 20.5 New Orleans Team Total (lean): Saints’ recent outputs vs similar/stronger fronts sit in the mid-teens; OL injuries don’t help.
Carolina -5.5 (like): Better trench play, healthier QB room, and a run script that travels. I make it CAR -6.8.

Player Props (L10 hit rate shown)

Chuba Hubbard o21.5 Rush Yds — 90% L10, avg 57.5 (+36 edge). Even with Rico Dowdle active, Hubbard’s early-down role + NO’s 129.4 rush yds allowed fits.
Chuba Hubbard o6.5 Rush Att — 90% L10, avg 14.5 (+8). Correlated with game script.
Bryce Young o27.5 Pass Att — 60% L10, avg 30.6 (+3.1). Saints’ defense permits long drives; if CAR runs efficiently, PA/quick game still pushes attempts near 30.
Chris Olave o55.5 Rec Yds — 60% L10, avg 57.3 (+1.8). Volume is sticky (8.8 targets, 60% L10 to 8.5+); if NO chases, Olave is the path.
Juwan Johnson o38.5 Rec Yds — 60% L10, avg 47.9 (+9.4). Friendly LB/Safety matchup zones for the rookie QB.

Same-Game Parlay (longer-odds “script”)

Panthers ML
Chuba Hubbard 40+ rush yds
Juwan Johnson 40+ rec yds
(+650 to +800 range depending on book)

Final Score Lean

Panthers 23, Saints 13
Carolina covers; Saints land below 20 more often than not.

New York Giants @ Chicago Bears

Line: CHI -4.5 | Total: 45.5
Kick: Sun 1:00 ET, Soldier Field

New York Giants @ Chicago Bears – cheat sheet

Chicago have won 5 of 6 and just hung 576 yards on Cincinnati. Caleb Williams is pushing the ball well (244.2 pass yds/g last 6; 5/3 TD-INT) and got a real lift from rookie TE Colston Loveland. The matchup is friendly: New York’s defense sits bottom-10 vs both run (150 yds/g allowed) and pass (pass TDs allowed trending up), while Chicago’s offense ranks top-10 in yards/play and scoring. DJ Moore versus a banged-up NYG corner group is the cleanest edge.

New York’s path is Brian Burns wrecking drives and Jaxson Dart leaning on quick game to Wan’Dale Robinson/Daniel Bellinger. The Bears’ defense is the leak (bottom-5 in points allowed and pass TD rate), so the Giants should still move the ball, but their red-zone/kicking situation (new K this week) and cluster injuries tilt the late-game edges to Chicago.

Leans

CHI -4.5 (spread) — Bears’ offensive balance vs NYG’s 32nd-ranked rush D + Moore mismatch.
Over 45.5 — Both defenses allow points; Bears’ pace spikes at home and CHI D gives up explosive passes.

Player Props (form last 10; use closest available lines)

Chicago

DJ Moore Over 41.5 Rec Yds — Avg 54.3; 80% hit L10; +12.8 yd edge vs NYG’s weak secondary.
DJ Moore Over 3.5 Receptions — Avg 4.5; 70% hit L10.
Caleb Williams Over 18.5 Completions — Avg 19.5; 70% hit L10; CHI top-10 yards/attempt at home.
D’Andre Swift Over 51.5 Rush Yds — Avg 60.2; 60% hit L10 vs NYG run D (150 yds/g).
- Alt/ladder: Swift Over 16.5 Rec Yds — Avg 25.3; short targets vs pressure have been there.

New York

Wan’Dale Robinson Over 5.5 Receptions — Avg 5.7; 60% hit L10; CHI soft in underneath zones.
Daniel Bellinger Over 8.5 Rec Yds — Avg 20.3; 60% hit L10 with a double-digit yardage edge.

Same-Game Parlay (moderate)

CHI ML + DJ Moore 40+ Rec Yds + D. Swift 40+ Rush Yds (~+250 to +325 depending on book)

Longshot sprinkle

DJ Moore 70+ Rec Yds (+280 to +350) — usage plus coverage matchup points to a ceiling game.

Notes: Monitor final statuses for D’Andre Swift (listed questionable earlier) and Chicago’s defensive injuries; if Swift were limited, pivot to Kyle Monangai Over 7.5 Rec Yds (avg 10.4; 63% hit).

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Line: HOU -1 | Total: 37.5
Kick: Sun 1:00 ET, NRG Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – cheat sheet

Read on the matchup

Quarterbacks: C.J. Stroud is OUT (concussion). Davis Mills starts for the Houston Texans. That’s a big downgrade against a defense that ranks #1 in total defense and top-5 vs pass & rush by most splits.
Defense vs. Defense: The Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing ~194 pass yds/g (No.3) and 90 rush yds/g (No.6). Houston’s D is also legit vs both phases (weak for fantasy volume; good for an Under).
Jaguars’ plan: Banged-up WR room, so expect another run-lean + short game from Jacksonville (Lawrence QB keepers + Travis Etienne usage; new WR Jakobi Meyers added for chain-moving).
Texans’ plan: With Mills, Houston should be quicker-game / underneath to the ancillary WRs/TE and Nick Chubb for balance, but TDs will be hard to come by vs this Jags front.

Betting leans

Jaguars ML (or +1): Better defense, healthier trench play, and the Stroud → Mills drop pushes me to JAX.
Under 37.5: Both defenses top tier; Jacksonville comfortable playing slow/grounded; Mills caps Houston explosives.

Derivative I like

Houston Texans Team Total UNDER (18.5 or better).

Player props (player-focused edges)

(Use the best available number; edges from your board in parentheses)

Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars) o3.5 receptions — steady role right away, short-area outlet (Avg 4.9; +1.4).
Dyami Brown (Jaguars) o32.5 receiving yards — vertical/over routes off play-action (Avg 44.8; +12.3).
Nick Chubb (Texans) o35.5 rush yards — volume path even in a tough matchup (Avg 44.4; +8.9).
Jayden Higgins (Texans) 1+ reception / o6.5 yards — Mills’ underneath tendencies help (hit-rate strong; +13.4 yds).

Bet Builder

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (alt)
Under 43.5 (alt)
Jakobi Meyers 3+ receptions
Dyami Brown 25+ receiving yards

Long-odds “Luckshot” (ladder for sprinkle)

Jacksonville Jaguars win + Trevor Lawrence Anytime TD + Nick Chubb 50+ rush yds.
Narrative: JAX red-zone QB keeper; Texans lean on Chubb volume; defense carries Jags.

Final read: With Stroud sidelined, the Jaguars’ top-ranked defense should control game flow. I’m on JAX and the Under, and I’ll build around Meyers/Brown short-yardage production plus a modest Chubb yards ladder rather than Texans TDs.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Line: Buffalo Bills -8 | Total: 50–50.5
Kick Sun 1:00 ET, Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – cheat sheet

Matchup snapshot

Buffalo Bills offense (No. 1 by yards) vs Miami Dolphins defense (No. 24 yards, No. 27 YPP)
Buffalo’s balance is the story: 161.5 rush YPG (No. 1) on 32.0 attempts (No. 1). Miami’s run D is the soft spot (146 rush YPG allowed to RBs; bottom-3). That points straight at James Cook and designed QB runs.
Miami Dolphins offense (No. 27 yards) vs Buffalo Bills defense (top-12 overall)
Miami has struggled to sustain (bottom-10 yards/play & rush YPG). Buffalo’s pass unit limits volume (27 attempts allowed on avg) and has handled Tua well historically.

Recent form & context

Bills: 6–2 (7–3 last 10). Back-to-back wins including KC. Offense humming; Allen 123.2 rating last week, Kincaid re-emerging.
Dolphins: 2–7. Turbulent week (front-office shakeup; Jaelan Phillips traded). Chop Robinson still not cleared; several defenders/questionables. Miami has lost 7 straight head-to-head vs Buffalo.

Trench edges

BUF run game → big advantage: Miami’s RB yards allowed rank near the bottom; Cook’s recent role + explosive rate line up with a 18–20 carry script if Buffalo leads.
MIA pass pro vs pressure: With Phillips gone and Robinson iffy, Miami’s own rush on defense takes a hit; on offense, Tua has faced tighter windows vs Buffalo (8 TD / 7 INT in recent sample).

Prop angles I like

James Cook over rushing yards (84.5) — Projection ~100–105. The matchup is perfect (MIA bottom-3 vs RB rush yards), and game script favors carries.
Josh Allen over rushing yards (29.5) — Allen historically runs more vs Miami; projection low-30s.
Keon Coleman over 2.5 receptions — Bills scheme easy perimeter wins vs off-coverage; 3–4 catches is a fair median.
Tua Tagovailoa over 0.5 interceptions — Buffalo compresses the middle; Tua’s INT rate climbs vs zone-heavy looks.

(Smaller leans: Dawson Knox over 10.5 rec yds as a single seam catch cashes; De’Von Achane anytime TD is live on limited touches given Miami’s red-zone usage.)

Betting card

Bills -8 (play to -8.5) — Talent gap + run-game edge + situational stability.
Under 50.5 (prefer 50.5; play to 49.5 small) — Bills can bleed clock on the ground; Miami’s offense profiles closer to league-bottom than market remembers.
Same-game lean: Bills ML + Cook 60+ rush alt ladder.

What flips this?

Early Miami explosives to Jaylen Waddle or Achane that force Buffalo out of the ground script, or multiple Bills secondary inactives clustering on gameday.

Pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 17.

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets

Line: Browns -2 | Total: 37.5
Kick: Sun 1:00 ET, MetLife Stadium

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets – cheat sheet

Read on the matchup

Game state: Low total, two bottom-tier offenses. Cleveland has stayed under 20 points in 6 of 8; New York leans run-first and is even thinner on defense after deadline moves.
Trenches tilt: The Jets’ strength is the ground game with Breece Hall, but Cleveland’s front is top-10 vs the run (rush yards allowed rank ~9). If the Jets can’t run on early downs, Justin Fields is forced into longer 3rd downs against a pass rush led by Myles Garrett.
Browns path: Dillon Gabriel has been conservative (sub-6.0 Y/A most weeks). Expect Stefanski to lean on Quinshon Judkins and quick game to David Njoku/Cedric Tillman against a Jets defense that just traded blue-chippers and has bled explosive plays.

Numbers that matter

CLE offense: 32nd in yards; 29th rushing; passing rarely pushes downfield.
NYJ offense: 25th in yards/play; 3rd in rushing yards per game but faces a stiff front here.
Defensive split to exploit: Jets run D is mid (94–96 rush yds allowed rank ~9 is Browns, Jets are weaker on the interior). Browns pass rush vs NYJ protection is the single biggest mismatch.

Player props I like

David Njoku O 30.5 receiving yards — volume funnel in a compressed total; his recent average sits well north of the line.
Cedric Tillman O 26.5 receiving yards — role bumps with WR injuries; Jets’ CB room lost star power.
Garrett Wilson O 4.5 receptions (monitor status) — still the Jets’ chain mover on slants/screens in negative scripts.

Betting card (graded leans)

Browns -2 (spread) — Lean. Defensive edge + Jets one-dimensionality.
Under 37.5 — Stronger lean. Both offenses are methodical; red-zone TD rates shaky.
Small SGP angle: Njoku 25+ yds + Under alt 41.5 for plus money.

Projection: Browns 20, Jets 16.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Line: SEA -7 | Total: 45.5
Kick: Sun 4:05 ET, Lumen Field

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks – cheat sheet

Quick read: Seattle are humming (6–2, three straight) and just added Rashid Shaheed to a passing game that’s already surged behind Sam Darnold (284.2 pass yds/gm last five, 12 TD, 3 INT). Arizona have stabilized with Jacoby Brissett, but they’re thin again on defense and draw one of the league’s stingier run fronts. This sets up as a Seahawks script: win early downs with the pass, make Arizona chase, and lean on a top-5 run D to close.

Matchup notes

Seahawks O vs. Cardinals D
- SEA top-10 in yards and yards/play; ARI defense sits bottom-10 in yards allowed and middling vs. explosives.
- Darnold’s last 4: 330/4 TD, 213/1, 295/2, 341/4. He’s pushing it downfield (10.0 Y/A recent form).
Cardinals O vs. Seahawks D
- Brissett competent (256 pass yds/gm sample, 8 TD, 3 INT) but ARI run game is average and SEA run D is elite (top-3 in rush yds allowed). One-dimensionality favors Seattle’s rush + simulated pressure looks.
Skill edges
- SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba volume monster; Cooper Kupp trending toward playing but monitor tags. New arrival Rashid Shaheed brings lid-lifting speed against an ARI secondary missing pieces.
- ARI: Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are the engine; both draw workable volume vs zone.

Betting angles

Side: Seahawks -7 (to -7.5). Seattle’s down-to-down efficiency + run defense match Arizona’s weaknesses; home field at Lumen tilts the late script.
Total: Lean Over 45.5. Seahawks’ pass rate over expectation plus ARI’s concentrated target tree points to steady scoring. If you prefer correlation: SEA TT Over 26.5.

Prop looks (price sensitive)

Rashid Shaheed O2.5 receptions. Fast track debut, designed touches and deep crossers vs a secondary allowing clean in-breakers.
Marvin Harrison Jr. O56.5 receiving yards. ARI’s path is through MHJ volume; SEA concedes underneath/ intermediate when ahead.
Trey McBride O7.5 targets (or alt 6+ ladder). Hot read vs zone; red-zone involvement steady.
Zach Charbonnet O10.5 rush attempts (if Kenneth Walker is limited at any point). Game script friendly in H2.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba alt 70+ sprinkle if Kupp is limited; JSN leads the league in yards and holds the every-down role.

Projection

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 20
Seattle covers; slight edge to the Over.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Line: LAR -6 | Total: 49.5
Kick: Sun 4:25 ET, Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara)

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers – cheat sheet

Why it matters

NFC West power tilt: Rams 6–2 tied for NFC’s best record; 49ers 6–3 one step back.
L.A. won 34–10 last week; SF bounced back with a 34–24 win at NYG.

Form & matchup notes

Rams offense (7th yards, 9th YPP) vs 49ers defense (17th in both) → edge to Stafford’s passing game.
49ers offense (10th yards) vs Rams defense (10th yards allowed) → more balanced; SF’s run game has been middling (26th rush yds).
Stafford’s recent run: efficient stretch (TD/INT 16/0 in last five).
SF’s Mac Jones was sharp last week (19/24, 235, 2 TD) and carved LAR in Week 5 (342, 2 TD).

Injuries / status

Rams: WR Puka Nacua (rib/chest) trending in; CB Darious Williams back; WR Jordan Whittington questionable.
49ers: Brock Purdy (toe) questionable; Ricky Pearsall out. Multiple front-seven Qs (Tatum Bethune, Dee Winters, Ben Bartch, Alfred Collins, Kalia Davis, Keion White).

Prop & angle shortlist

Kyren Williams O64.5 rush yds — avg ~76.8; SF allowing ~109 rush yds/gm.
Puka Nacua O91.5 rec yds — avg ~98; heavy target share even with Kupp if active.
Tyler Higbee O2.5 receptions — TE usage has ticked up; SF can cede TE volume.
Correlated SF darts if chasing: Kyle Juszczyk O7.5 rec yds / Mac Jones O2.5 rush att (scramble risk vs LAR rush).

Betting lean

Rams -6 if Puka active and Purdy sits/limited; L.A.’s offense has the cleaner matchup.
If Purdy plays and SF front holds up, Over 49.5 has paths via both passing attacks.

Pick: Rams -6 (stronger), small sprinkle Over 49.5.

Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders

Last meeting: Jan 18, 2025 — Washington 45, Detroit 31

Kickoff: Sun, Nov 9 — Landover, MD
Market snapshot (bet365): Lions -8.0 (-110) | Total 49.0 (-110) | ML DET -450 / WAS +350

Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders – cheat sheet

Preview

Detroit (5–3) arrives off a 27–24 home loss to Minnesota and Dan Campbell’s message was simple: play their brand for 60 minutes. The Lions didn’t make deadline moves, but they still boast a top-12 offense by yards and EPA with a balanced Gibbs/Montgomery backfield and Jared Goff distributing efficiently behind an elite tackle duo (Penei Sewell cleared).

Washington (3–6) has dropped four straight and will turn to Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels sidelined (elbow). The Commanders are also without Terry McLaurin (quad) and remain vulnerable vs the pass (last in yards/attempt allowed; 4th worst in pass TDs allowed). Dan Quinn’s defense has struggled to generate consistent pressure, which sets up clean pockets for Goff and high-volume looks for Sam LaPorta and the RBs in the short game.

There’s a revenge undertone after last year’s playoff upset when Washington knocked out the top-seeded Lions 45–31. Expect Detroit to lean into tempo and early-down efficiency, while Washington tries to shorten the game with Mariota’s legs and Jacory Croskey-Merritt on the ground.

Prop Targets (Edges from the StatsBench board)

Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs — Receptions o2.5 (-163)
Avg 4.0 | Hit 70% | Edge +1.5
WAS funnels RB targets; Gibbs’ route rate steady even when Montgomery active.
Jahmyr Gibbs — Receiving Yards o20.5 (-120)
Avg 29.8 | Hit 60% | Edge +9.3
Sam LaPorta — Receiving Yards o44.5 (-112)
Avg 55.0 | Hit 60% | Edge +10.5
WAS LB/S coverage has bled chunk gains to TEs.
Kalif Raymond — Receptions o0.5 (-250)
Avg 1.3 | Hit 70% | Edge +0.8
Kalif Raymond — Receiving Yards o7.5 (-118)
Avg 11.2 | Hit 60% | Edge +3.7
David Montgomery — Receiving Yards o8.5 (-105)
Avg 13.7 | Hit 60% | Edge +5.2
Jared Goff — Completions o21.5 (-100)
Avg 22.7 | Hit 60% | Edge +1.2
Volume path vs WAS secondary; sacks a concern but quick game mitigates.
Sprinkle: Gibbs Anytime TD o0.5 (-145) | 70% | Edge +0.2

Washington Commanders

Treylon Burks — Receptions o0.5 (-250)
Avg 1.2 | Hit 80% | Edge +0.7
Treylon Burks — Receiving Yards o8.5 (-110)
Avg 14.6 | Hit 70% | Edge +6.1
Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Rush Attempts o8.5 (-130)
Avg 10.4 | Hit 67% | Edge +1.9
Game plan lift with Mariota: heavier rush rate, zone-read looks.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Receptions o0.5 (-165)
Avg 0.9 | Hit 67% | Edge +0.4
Zach Ertz — Receiving Yards o35.5 (-115)
Avg 39.5 | Hit 60% | Edge +4.0
Longshot: Deebo Samuel — Anytime TD o0.5 (+210)
Avg 0.6 | Hit 60% | Edge +0.1
Designed touches near the stripe; price-driven dart.

How to Bet It (quick card)

Gibbs o2.5 Rec
LaPorta o44.5 Rec Yds
Goff o21.5 Completions
Croskey-Merritt o8.5 Rush Att
Burks o8.5 Rec Yds
Sprinkle: Gibbs Anytime TD (ladder small)

Game lean: Lions -8 or DET TT Over (Washington pass D matchup + DET red-zone weapons).