NHL Shots on Goal Betting: Why “Volume” Beats “Accuracy”

Betting on an “Anytime Goalscorer” in the NHL is exhilarating. Watching the red light go on and the horn blast is the best feeling in sports.

But from a mathematical standpoint, it is a nightmare.

Even the best goal scorers in the world—superstars like Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid—go through cold streaks where they don’t score for 3 or 4 games. A hot goalie, a hit post, or just bad puck luck can kill your bet instantly.

Enter the Shots on Goal (SOG) market.
This is the “Bread and Butter” of data-driven hockey bettors. It removes the randomness of the goalie and focuses entirely on the one thing we can predict: Volume.

Here is how to crush the SOG market using advanced volume metrics rather than just looking at the box score.

The Metric That Matters: Shot Attempts (Corsi)

Most bettors just look at the “Shots on Goal” column in a standard box score.

• Shot on Goal (SOG): A shot that would have gone in the net if the goalie didn’t stop it.
• Missed Shot: A shot that goes wide or over the net (Does NOT count as SOG).
• Blocked Shot: A shot blocked by a defender (Does NOT count as SOG).

However, smart bettors look at Shot Attempts (often called “Corsi” in the analytics community).

The Strategy:
Imagine Jack Hughes has a betting line of Over 3.5 SOG.
In his last game, he had 2 SOG. The public sees this and thinks, “He’s cold. Fade him.”

But you look at StatsBench and see he had 12 Shot Attempts.

• 4 were blocked.
• 6 went wide.
• 2 hit the net.

The Conclusion: He isn’t cold. He is extremely active. He just had bad aim for one night. A player with 12 attempts is a ticking time bomb. You bet the Over immediately because the volume is there.

Strategy 1: Target the “Sieve” Defenses

Defense in the NHL isn’t just about preventing goals; it’s about suppressing shots. Some teams play a tight, defensive structure (like the Carolina Hurricanes). Others play “run and gun” hockey and allow shots from everywhere.

You want to target teams that bleed shots.

• The Target: Look for opponents ranked in the Bottom 5 for “Shots Allowed Per Game.” (Teams like the San Jose Sharks or Anaheim Ducks often fit this profile).
• The Play: Find a high-volume Center playing against a bottom-tier defense. It doesn’t matter if they win or lose; the puck will be in the offensive zone all night.

Strategy 2: The “Game Script” Correlation

In the NBA, blowouts kill player props because starters sit.
In the NHL, the score dictates the aggression.

• Trailing Teams Shoot More: When a team is losing by 1 or 2 goals in the 3rd period, they stop looking for the “perfect pass.” They start throwing pucks at the net from every angle to create chaos.
• Leading Teams Turtle: When a team is winning, they play conservatively (“dump and chase”) to kill the clock.

The Play: If a strong offensive team (like the Oilers or Avalanche) is playing a team with a hot goalie, they might fall behind early. This is the perfect scenario for SOG Overs. They will be chasing the game for 60 minutes.

Strategy 3: The “Empty Net” Bonus

This is the hidden edge that casual bettors miss.
If a team is losing by 1 or 2 goals with 2 minutes left, they pull their goalie for an extra attacker (6-on-5).

• The Boost: The top line (your star players) stays on the ice for the entire final 2 minutes.
• The Result: They will frantically shoot to tie the game. That extra 2 minutes of ice time is often the difference between ending with 3 shots (a loss) and 4 shots (a win).
• Target: Always prioritize players who play on the PP1 (First Power Play Unit) and are part of the “6-on-5” closing lineup.

Summary: Process Over Results

Goals are random. Volume is consistent.

If you want to stop sweating over whether a puck hits the post or the net, switch your focus to Shots on Goal. Use the data to find the players who are shooting the most, regardless of whether the red light turns on.

See today’s SOG Projections and Hit Rates on the StatsBench Cheat Sheet