Today’s LoL prop picks, straight from the game logs
This is our daily LoL prop picks page, refreshed every morning with fresh lines. Today is July 25, 2026, and the board runs across the LCK, LPL and LEC slates. Every pick below is the OVER, priced at Thunderpick, with the recent-form gap listed exactly as our data shows it.
One thing before the picks. Kill props settle over a map window inside a best-of-N series, so a hit rate means how often that player cleared the number across their recent series, not single games. Six of ten is six series, not six maps.
Hope OVER 3.5 map 1 kills vs Bilibili Gaming
Hope went OVER in 80% of recent series (8/10) on this map 1 kills number, with a +30% L10-vs-market gap. The over is priced -118 @ thunderpick, which is the cheapest juice of any 80% row on the board today.
That gap is a recent-form signal off ten series, so treat it as loud, not proven. AL games tend to snowball early, and Hope sits on the receiving end of most of that gold.
Correlation note: this pick shares a game with Xun and knight below. Stacking all three multiplies the same game script risk instead of spreading it.
Elyoya OVER 3.5 map 1 kills vs Team Vitality
Same profile as Hope, different region. Elyoya went OVER in 80% of recent series (8/10) with a +30% recent-form gap, and the over is priced -118 @ thunderpick.
Junglers with kill participation this high are the cleanest map 1 targets because they get paid whether the team is ahead or behind. A 3.5 line on a jungler who keeps clearing it is the kind of number worth shopping across books.
Correlation note: Elyoya, Lyncas and FIESTA are all from KOI vs Vitality. Pick one or two, not all three.
Lyncas OVER 1.5 map 1 kills at Movistar KOI
Lyncas went OVER in 80% of recent series (8/10) at this number, with a +21.8% gap versus the market line. The over is priced -172 @ thunderpick, so you’re paying up for the low bar.
A 1.5 kills line is a floor bet. Two kills in a map is a normal night for almost any jungler, which is why the price is steep. If you can find -160 or better elsewhere, take it there.
Ahn OVER 3.5 map 1 kills vs EDward Gaming
This is the best price on the page. Ahn went OVER in 70% of recent series (7/10) with a +26% recent-form gap, and the over is priced +110 @ thunderpick.
Plus money on a 70% recent rate is exactly what our scanner is built to surface. Verify the line hasn’t moved before you fire, because plus-money kill props on ThunderTalk games get bet fast.
Correlation note: Ahn and Junhao come from the same EDG vs TT game.
Yike OVER 4.5 map 1 kills vs Movistar KOI
Yike went OVER in 60% of recent series (6/10) here, with a +16% gap against the market. The over is priced +110 @ thunderpick.
Six of ten at plus money is a small sample, but the shape is right. A 4.5 line is aggressive, so this one lives or dies on whether KC controls early skirmishes.
Correlation note: Yike and Jojopyun are tied to the same KC vs KOI series.
FIESTA OVER 2.5 map 1 kills at Movistar KOI
FIESTA went OVER in 60% of recent series (6/10) at this number, with a +13.8% recent-form gap. The over is priced +100 @ thunderpick, which is a clean even-money look.
Even money on a 2.5 kills line for a mid laner is a fair starting point. Remember this is the third prop from KOI vs Vitality, so size accordingly.
knight OVER 5.5 map 1 kills at Anyone’s Legend
knight went OVER in 60% of recent series (6/10) on the highest line we’re touching today. The recent-form gap is +6.2% and the over is priced -139 @ thunderpick.
A small gap like this is closer to our validated long-run edges than the +30% rows are. That makes it less exciting and arguably more honest. Shop it, because -139 is not a price you want to overpay past.
Care OVER 2.5 map 1 kills at LNG Esports
Care went OVER in 60% of recent series (6/10), with a +4% recent-form gap and the over priced -154 @ thunderpick.
This is the thinnest gap on the list, so it’s a line-shopping play more than a conviction play. If another book has 2.5 at -130, the bet gets meaningfully better. If not, pass.
Correlation note: Care shares the LNG vs NIP game with Guwon.
How StatsBench builds these LoL prop picks
We pull real recent game logs for every player, then compare their last-10 OVER rate to the de-vigged market price. Odds come from about 60 sportsbooks, and our +EV feed recomputes fair prices every minute.
The number we call the recent-form gap is simple: last-10 OVER hit rate minus the market-implied probability after we strip the vig. It is a form signal, not expected value and not a projection.
- Ten series is a small sample, so big gaps are overstated.
- Our validated long-run edges are single digits, not 30%.
- Map-window props exclude best-of-1 series by design.
- A large gap is a reason to shop the line, not a reason to size up.
Should you stack picks from the same series?
Short answer: be careful. Five of today’s games appear twice or more on this board, and props from the same series move together. If Vitality gets stomped on map 1, Lyncas and FIESTA likely miss together while Elyoya cashes.
That’s not diversification. That’s one bet wearing three jerseys. Pick your favorite side of each game script and move on.
Bet responsibly
This page is research, not advice, and nothing here is a guarantee. Hit rates describe the past. Variance decides the night, and edges only show up over long samples.
You must be 21+ where legal, and legality varies by region. Bet only what you can afford to lose, keep it fun, and if it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Get the numbers behind every pick
Want the full board instead of eight rows? The free player prop cheatsheet gives you hit rates, best prices and consistency grades in one sortable table. It takes two minutes and costs nothing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a map 1 kills prop actually settle on?
It settles only on the first map of the series, no matter how many maps get played. So a player can have a huge series overall and still miss a map 1 line. Map-window props like maps 1-2 also exclude best-of-1 series from the sample.
Why do you say “recent series” instead of “recent games”?
One series contains several maps, and these hit rates are counted per series. Saying 8 of 10 series is accurate; saying 8 of 10 games would imply single maps. It matters when you’re judging sample size.
Is the recent-form gap the same as expected value?
No. It’s the last-10 OVER hit rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability, which is a form signal only. A +30% gap off ten series is overstated, and our validated long-run edges sit in single digits.
Why is a 60% hit rate at plus money interesting?
Because plus money implies the market thinks it hits less than half the time. When recent form disagrees with the price, that’s the gap worth investigating. Always confirm the current line first, since prices move fast.
Do these picks update every day?
Yes. This exact page refreshes daily with new lines, hit rates and prices, so bookmark it rather than hunting for a new post. Today’s version is dated July 25, 2026.