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RED Canids own the cleanest early-game profile on the slate. They take first blood in 63.3% of tracked games (weighted recent 56.4%), 6 of their last 10, and they’ve won the opening kill in 5 of 7 recent meetings with Fluxo. Their side splits hold up too: 66.7% on Blue (n=27) and 60.6% on Red (n=33), so they don’t need a specific draft seat to be aggressive. The counter is that the model only estimates this fixture at 51% / 49%, because Fluxo have trended up lately (46.5% baseline but 52.5% weighted recent) and also went 6 of their last 10. At -118 both ways, the price gives you nothing back for that uncertainty, so this is a lean, not a bargain.
Karmine Corp vs Shifters: Karmine Corp first blood
Karmine Corp draw first blood in 56.7% of tracked games, and the weighted recent number is higher at 62.1%. On Blue side they’re at 64.7% (n=34), a real gap over their 46.2% on Red (n=26). Shifters sit at 46.3% (weighted recent 49%) and concede first blood 53.7% of the time, which is why the split estimate lands 52% / 48% toward KC. The honest counter: Shifters have taken first blood in 3 of the last 4 head-to-heads, and at -154 for the away side you’re paying a steep number for a market this close to a coin flip. That’s a clearly negative-EV price unless you think the model is understating KC badly.
Dignitas vs FlyQuest: Dignitas first blood
This one is less about Dignitas being good early and more about FlyQuest being slow. FlyQuest take first blood in just 38.3% of tracked games, with a weighted recent mark of 31.6%, and they concede it 61.7% of the time. Their side splits offer no escape hatch: 38.7% on Blue (n=31) and 37.9% on Red (n=29). Dignitas are a flat 50% (weighted recent 49.6%), which gets the estimate to 53% / 47%, and the home price of -105 is the friendliest number on the board for a side the model likes.
Anyone’s Legend vs Bilibili Gaming: Anyone’s Legend first blood
Anyone’s Legend take first blood in 51.7% of tracked games and are trending up, with a weighted recent rate of 57.2% and a Red-side mark of 57.1% (n=28). BLG have gone the other direction: 45% baseline, 39.9% weighted recent, and just 3 of their last 10. The head-to-head backs it, with BLG winning the opening kill in only 1 of 5 recent meetings. The estimate is 47% / 53% toward AL, and the away price of -109 is the cheaper side of a -128 / -109 pair, which matters in a market this thin.
LOS vs LOUD: LOS first blood
LOS have taken first blood in 7 of 10 recent meetings with LOUD, and their season rate is a steady 53.3% (weighted recent 51.8%) with almost no side dependence (52.9% Blue, n=34; 53.8% Red, n=26). LOUD are the problem for that read. Their baseline is 46.7%, but the weighted recent number jumps to 57.5% and they’ve won the opening kill in 7 of their last 10. That’s why the estimate actually tilts slightly the other way at 49% / 51%, and why the -128 home price on LOS looks like the worse of the two numbers available (-128 / -109).
BNK FEARX vs Nongshim RedForce: BNK FEARX first blood
BNK FEARX are the sharpest form play on the early slate. Their tracked rate is only 43.3%, but the weighted recent figure is 58% and they’ve taken first blood in 8 of their last 10. Nongshim sit higher on season baseline (51.7%) yet are fading, at 46.2% weighted recent and 5 of their last 10. The estimate is a near coin flip at 52% / 48%, the head-to-head is against BNK (3 of 7), and both sides are priced -118, so this is a form lean on a juiced number rather than a value spot.
What goes into these first blood reads?
The method is simple and repeatable. We pull each team’s tracked first-blood rate, a recency-weighted version of the same rate, last-10 form, how often they concede the opening kill, and side splits with sample sizes attached. Then a log5 calculation combines the two teams into a head-to-head estimate that sums to 100.
- Baseline vs weighted recent tells you whether a team is drifting from its season identity.
- Side splits only matter when the sample is big enough, so we always show n.
- Posted price is where expected value lives. No price, no EV claim.
- Head-to-head is small-sample texture, not proof.
Most first blood markets are juiced on both sides. A -118 / -118 pair means you’re paying roughly 8 cents of vig for a market that’s genuinely close to 50/50, so line shopping across books does more for your bottom line than any single read on this page. There’s no graded record for this market here, and none is implied.
A note on variance
First blood is one moment in a 30-minute game. Invades get read, junglers path away from each other, and a 60% team loses the opening kill plenty. Treat these as research inputs and size accordingly.
21+ only, and sports betting legality varies by where you live. Nothing here is a guarantee, and edges (when they exist) only show up over a large sample. Bet within your means, keep it fun, and if it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What does the first blood matchup split mean?
It’s a log5 head-to-head estimate that combines both teams’ first-blood rates into two numbers that sum to 100. It’s an estimate of the lean, not a prediction of the outcome. A 52% / 48% split is basically a coin flip with a slight tilt.
Is this page updated every day?
Yes. The same URL refreshes with the current slate instead of publishing a new post each day. Today’s version covers the August 23, 2026 games across the LCK, LPL, CBLOL, LEC and LCS.
Why do you keep saying most of these prices are negative EV?
Because they usually are. A -118 / -118 pair prices both sides above 50%, so the book keeps the difference. Expected value only exists when a posted price is out of line with the estimated probability, and on first blood markets that’s rare.
Which number matters more, season rate or weighted recent rate?
Neither on its own. The season rate is a bigger sample, the weighted recent rate catches roster and meta shifts. When the two disagree sharply, like FlyQuest at 38.3% baseline versus 31.6% weighted recent, that gap is itself the signal.
Do side splits actually predict first blood?
Sometimes, and only with a decent sample. Karmine Corp at 64.7% on Blue over 34 games is worth noting; a split over 13 games is mostly noise. That’s why every side split on this page carries its sample size.