We have all been there.
You bet the Over 27.5 Points on Jayson Tatum.
By the end of the 3rd Quarter, he has 26 points. You are thrilled. He only needs one more bucket in the final 12 minutes to cash your ticket.
But then, disaster strikes. You look at the scoreboard and realize the Celtics are up by 32 points. The coach pulls the starters. Tatum puts on his warm-up hoodie and sits on the bench for the entire 4th Quarter.
Your bet loses.
This is the “Garbage Time” trap. It is one of the most frustrating ways to lose money in the NBA, but it is also one of the easiest to avoid if you know what to look for.
Here is how to predict blowouts, why “Season Averages” are lying to you, and how to use the StatsBench Minutes Filter to see what a player actually does when they play a full game.
What is “Garbage Time” in Betting?
“Garbage Time” refers to the final minutes (or sometimes the entire 4th quarter) of a game where the score is so lopsided that the outcome is already decided.
Coaches want to protect their stars from injury, so if the lead is 20+ points heading into the 4th, the starters sit.
If you bet an “Over” prop, Garbage Time is your enemy.
If you bet an “Under” prop, Garbage Time is your best friend.
The “Average” Lie: Why Most Data Sites Fail You
This is where casual bettors lose their edge.
Most free apps and websites show you a player’s Season Average or their Last 10 Games.
Let’s say a player averages 22 Points Per Game. That looks great for an Over 20.5 bet, right?
Wrong.
That “22 PPG” average might include three blowout games where he only played 24 minutes instead of his usual 34.
- Game 1 (Blowout Win): 18 Points (24 mins)
- Game 2 (Close Game): 30 Points (36 mins)
- Game 3 (Blowout Loss): 14 Points (22 mins)
If you look at the raw average, you see inconsistent scoring. But if you look at the Context, you see that every time he plays 30+ minutes, he smashes the Over.
You don’t need to guess. You need to filter out the noise.
How to Use the StatsBench “Minutes Filter”
At StatsBench, we built a specific tool to solve this exact problem. We don’t just show you what a player did; we show you why.
When you are researching a prop, use the Minutes Filter to strip away the Garbage Time games.
The Workflow:
- Open the Player Profile.
- Set the Minutes Floor: If a player usually plays 32 minutes, set the filter to > 28 Minutes.
- See the “True” Average: Suddenly, all those low-scoring “red” games disappear. You might see that when this player actually gets his full run, he hits the Over 90% of the time.
This is how you find value that the sportsbooks (and other bettors) miss. The books price the line based on the average. You bet based on the reality.
3 Signs a Blowout is Coming (Red Flags)
You can’t predict the future, but you can predict the risk. Before locking in a player prop, check these three factors.
1. The Spread is Double Digits
If the spread is -12.5 or higher, Vegas is telling you this game is going to be ugly.
- Strategy: Be very careful with “Over” bets on starters. If the favorite covers that spread early, your guy is sitting.
- Pivot: This is a great time to look at 1st Quarter or 1st Half props. The starters have to play the first half, regardless of the score.
2. The “Rest Disadvantage”
Is the Denver Nuggets playing at home (at altitude) against a bad team that played an overtime game last night?
Fatigue leads to bad defense. Bad defense leads to blowouts.
If one team is fresh and the other is exhausted, the risk of a 20-point lead by halftime skyrockets.
3. The “Tanking” Factor
Late in the season, teams like the Wizards, Pistons, or Spurs might be trying to lose for a better draft pick. If they go down by 15, they might pull their starters even earlier than usual to “see what the young guys have.”
Always check if a team is in “Tank Mode” before betting their overs.
Summary: Protect Your Bankroll
Betting is about minimizing variables. You can’t control if a player misses a shot, but you can control if you bet into a blowout trap.
Don’t bet blind.
- Check the Spread.
- Check the Schedule.
- And most importantly, use the StatsBench Minutes Filter to see the player’s true potential, not just their raw average.
Click here to access the Free StatsBench Cheatsheet and start filtering for the winners today.
Garbage Time refers to the final minutes of a basketball game when the score is so lopsided (usually 20+ points) that the outcome is already decided. During this time, coaches pull their starters to prevent injury, leaving only bench players on the floor to finish the game.
Yes. Every point, rebound, or assist scored during Garbage Time counts toward your bet ticket. However, because starters typically sit out during these minutes, they lose the opportunity to accumulate stats, which often kills “Over” bets.
While you can’t predict the future, you can spot high-risk games by looking at the Point Spread (lines of -12 or higher indicate blowout risk) and Rest Disadvantage (teams playing on a “back-to-back” are more likely to get blown out).
Yes. The StatsBench player research tool includes a Minutes Filter. This allows you to exclude games where a player played low minutes (due to a blowout or injury) so you can see their true scoring average when they play a full rotation.