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yatsuka has gone OVER 13.5 map 1 kills in 90% of recent series (9/10), and the last 5 are a clean 100%. That’s a +36.4% recent-form gap versus the market line, with the over priced -141 at Thunderpick. Form and sample agree here, which is rare on a 90% row, so this is the cleanest of the DFM group.
Correlation note: this pick shares a game with Akame and SSeeS below. Stacking all three multiplies one game script, it does not spread your risk.
Lysoar OVER 14.5 map 1 deaths (XLG Esports @ Bilibili Gaming)
Lysoar has cleared 14.5 map 1 deaths in 90% of recent series (9/10), including 100% of the last 5. The recent-form gap sits at +35.5% with the over at -147. Deaths props like this one lean on losing or close maps, and XLG going on the road at Bilibili Gaming fits that shape. Verify the price before you fire, because -147 already prices in a chunk of the form.
trent OVER 12.5 map 1 deaths (G2 Esports @ M80)
trent sits at 90% over 12.5 map 1 deaths across recent series (9/10), with the last 5 at 80%. The slight step down in the L5 is worth noting, but a 4/5 stretch under a 9/10 baseline is normal noise, not a fade. Recent-form gap is +36.2% and the over is -143 at Thunderpick.
Correlation note: trent, valyn (twice) and Spaz all come from G2 vs M80. Four bets, one game script.
valyn OVER 13.5 map 2 deaths (G2 Esports @ M80)
valyn has gone over 13.5 map 2 deaths in 90% of recent series (9/10) and 100% of the last 5, the biggest recent-form gap on the board at +40.4%. The over is -118 at Thunderpick, which is the softest price attached to any 90% row today. Map 2 windows also require the series to reach a second map, so a 2-0 sweep in either direction is the only real structural risk.
valyn OVER 13.5 map 1 deaths (G2 Esports @ M80)
Same player, earlier map window. valyn cleared 13.5 map 1 deaths in 80% of recent series (8/10) with the last 5 at 80%, a +30.4% recent-form gap at -118. The map 1 version carries no “does the series get there” risk, so it’s the more conservative of his two lines.
Correlation note: this and the map 2 deaths pick are the SAME player. One rough series from valyn cashes both, one dominant series kills both. Treat them as one position, not two.
Spaz OVER 12.5 map 2 kills (M80 vs G2 Esports)
Spaz has gone over 12.5 map 2 kills in 80% of recent series (8/10), with the last 5 also at 80%. Steady is the point here: the L5 and L10 agree, so nothing is quietly fading. The recent-form gap is +30.5% at -118. Note the natural pairing with valyn’s map 2 deaths, since kills for M80 and deaths for G2 come out of the same map.
WsLeo OVER 14.5 map 1 deaths (XLG Esports @ Bilibili Gaming)
WsLeo is 8/10 over 14.5 map 1 deaths in recent series, with the last 5 at 80% and a +30.7% recent-form gap. The over is -116, the better price of the two XLG death props. He and Lysoar are on the same team in the same map window, so buying both is one concentrated bet on XLG getting run over early.
SSeeS OVER 12.5 map 1 kills (DetonatioN FocusMe vs QT DIG∞)
SSeeS has cleared 12.5 map 1 kills in 80% of recent series (8/10), last 5 at 80%, for a +29.1% recent-form gap at -125. The line is a full kill lower than yatsuka’s, which is the tell that the market sees him as the secondary source of frags. If you want DFM exposure without doubling up, pick one of the two kill props rather than both.
Akame OVER 14.5 map 1 deaths (DetonatioN FocusMe vs QT DIG∞)
Here’s the one to be honest about. Akame is 80% over 14.5 map 1 deaths across recent series (8/10), but the last 5 sit at just 60%. The L10 and L5 disagree, and that’s a cooling trend, not a hot one. The +31.2% recent-form gap and the -114 price are the two things keeping it on the page, and it’s the smallest position of the group for me.
Fixture markets worth a look
Three team-level rows today. These settle on the match, not a player, so they don’t stack with the props above unless they share a game.
M80 vs G2 Esports OVER 21.5 map round total
Both sides carry this one evenly. M80 have gone over 21.5 rounds in 70% of their last 10 maps and G2 in 70% as well, for a combined 70%, with last-10 averages of 21.8 for M80 and 22.5 for G2. Priced +101 with EV +41%, which is the largest listed EV on the board. Neither team is doing the heavy lifting alone here, and that balance is what makes the number believable.
Correlation note: this is the same game as the valyn, trent and Spaz props. Long maps produce more kills and more deaths, so those four positions all point the same direction.
BESTIA vs Cloud9 OVER 2.5 total maps
BESTIA are doing the work on this one. They’ve gone over 2.5 maps in 60% of their last 10 series (last-10 average 2.9), while Cloud9 sit at 50% (average 2.5), for a combined 55%. That’s a thin combined rate, but +143 with EV +34% pays for the uncertainty. In short: you’re betting BESTIA’s habit of dragging series to a decider more than anything Cloud9 do.
Note that david’s map 2 kills prop (OVER 13.5, 80% of recent series, last 5 at 60%, +28.8% recent-form gap, -127) lives in this same match if you want player exposure instead.
Rex Regum Qeon vs FULL SENSE OVER 2.5 total maps
FULL SENSE are carrying this number. They’re over 2.5 maps in 70% of their last 10 series against RRQ’s 50%, combined 60%, and both average 2.7 maps per series. The over is -105 with EV +17%, the most modest EV of the three fixture rows. Monyet’s OVER 14.5 map 1 deaths from this same match (80% of recent series, last 5 at 80%, +29.9% gap, -120) is the correlated player angle.
How StatsBench builds these numbers
Everything above comes from real recent series logs, not projections. The hit rate is simply how often a player cleared that exact line across their last 10 qualifying series, and the sample is always shown (9/10, 8/10) so you can weigh it yourself.
The “recent-form gap” is the last-10 OVER hit rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability at the listed book. De-vigging strips the juice out of the price to get a fair probability, then we compare it to recent form. It is a form signal, nothing more.
- It is not edge, not EV, not ROI, and not a projection.
- A 10-series sample overstates the gap. Big gaps are a reason to shop the line, not a reason to size up.
- Validated long-run edges are far smaller, usually single digits.
- Prices move. The -118 you read here may be -135 by the time you click.
Key takeaway: a 90% row at short odds is a cue to check the current price across books, not proof of a mispriced line.
Why correlated Valorant props are riskier than they look
Four of today’s rows come from G2 vs M80, three from DetonatioN FocusMe vs QT DIG∞, and two from Bilibili Gaming vs XLG. Two rows are the same player, valyn.
That matters because correlated props multiply one outcome. If G2 get swept in fast maps, valyn’s death lines, trent’s deaths and Spaz’s map 2 kills can all miss together, and the round total goes with them. Betting six correlated overs is one big bet wearing six costumes. Size accordingly.
Responsible gambling
Bet only what you can afford to lose. This page is research, not advice, and no hit rate guarantees anything about tonight. Short samples swing hard, and even a genuine long-run edge goes through losing weeks.
Betting is 21+ and legality varies by where you live. If wagering stops being fun, or you feel like you’re chasing, take a break and call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does a Valorant prop hit rate actually work?
A hit rate is the share of a player’s last 10 qualifying series in which they cleared that exact line inside the stated map window. Because one series contains several maps, the sample is counted in series, not maps. Map 1-2 and map 1-3 windows exclude best-of-1 series.
What is the “recent-form gap” on this page?
It’s the last-10 OVER hit rate minus the de-vigged, market-implied probability at the listed sportsbook. It measures recent form against the current price, nothing else. It is not edge, EV, ROI or a projection, and a 10-series sample tends to overstate it.
Which of today’s Valorant picks are correlated?
Four rows come from G2 Esports vs M80 (valyn twice, trent, Spaz) plus that game’s round total, three from DetonatioN FocusMe vs QT DIG∞ (yatsuka, SSeeS, Akame), and two from Bilibili Gaming vs XLG (Lysoar, WsLeo). valyn’s two death props are the same player. Stacking them multiplies the same risk instead of spreading it.
Why is Akame listed if his last 5 are worse than his last 10?
Because hiding the split would be less useful than showing it. Akame is 8/10 on the L10 but only 60% over the last 5, which is a cooling trend. The line and price still qualify, but that disagreement is a reason to stake it smaller.
How often does this page update?
Daily. The same URL refreshes with new lines, hit rates and prices each morning, so today’s page reflects August 19, 2026. Odds shown can move, so confirm the current number at the book before betting.