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The matchup split estimates Iron Wing at 55% to draw first blood against Team Spirit’s 45%, and Iron Wing’s form is what drives it. They take first blood in 63.3% of tracked games, with a weighted recent mark of 78.7% and 8 of their last 10. The counter is real though: Team Spirit sit at 61.7% overall and are a monster on Dire at 79.3% over 29 games, so side assignment swings this a lot. Prices are posted at home -119 / away -116, which is standard juice on both sides, so any edge here is thin rather than obvious.
TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys, first blood (Game 1)
This one is close to a coinflip on the model: 52% TEAM VISION, 48% BoomBoys. Both teams take first blood in 53.3% of tracked games, but the recent form diverges. TEAM VISION’s weighted recent rate holds at 53.1% with 6 of their last 10, while BoomBoys have slipped to 42.9% weighted and just 3 of 10. The head-to-head cuts the other way, with TEAM VISION taking first blood in only 2 of 7 recent meetings, and at -139 home versus +100 away, the underdog price is where the value question actually lives.
Team Liquid vs Team Yandex, first blood (Game 1)
Another near-even estimate at 52% Liquid, 48% Yandex. Liquid’s profile is stable rather than spiky: 53.3% of tracked games, 55.3% weighted recent, 6 of the last 10, and side splits that barely move (Radiant 55.2% over 29, Dire 51.6% over 31). Yandex actually own the higher raw rate at 55%, but their weighted recent number drops to 46.3%, which is the gap the model is reading. Their Dire split of 62.1% over 29 games is the counter-argument, and with Game-1 prices at -120 home / -115 away, you’re paying juice on both sides of a near-tossup.
How these first-blood reads are built
Everything above comes from tracked Dota 2 game logs: how often each team draws the opening kill, how often they concede it, and how those rates split by Radiant and Dire with the sample size attached. The head-to-head number is a log5 estimate, not a forecast. It’s a way to combine two teams’ rates into one shared scale.
- Weighted recent rates lean on newer games, so they move faster than season totals.
- Side splits only matter once the draft assigns Radiant and Dire, so treat them as conditional.
- Posted prices are cited exactly as shown. Where no price is listed, there’s no EV calculation to make.
- Small samples (an n of 20 to 40 games) move a lot with a handful of results.
First blood is a high-variance market with real vig baked in. Most posted lines here are juiced on both sides, which means the fair-value gap has to be meaningful before a bet is worth making. Research first, then decide for yourself.
A note on variance and betting responsibly
These are research reads, not predictions, and there’s no guaranteed outcome in any of them. First blood swings on a single rotation, so expect long runs that look nothing like the percentages. Bet 21+, only with money you can afford to lose, and treat it as entertainment. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for help.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is a first blood bet in Dota 2?
It’s a market on which team scores the first kill of the map. It’s zero-sum, so one team’s first-blood rate is the other team’s concession rate. Most books post it per game, often just for Game 1 of a series.
Why do Radiant and Dire splits matter for first blood?
Side assignment changes early lane and jungle geometry, so many teams have very different opening-kill rates by side. Team Spirit, for example, take first blood in 79.3% of 29 tracked Dire games versus 45.2% of 31 Radiant games. Those splits only apply once sides are known.
What does the 55% / 45% matchup split actually mean?
It’s a log5 head-to-head estimate that blends both teams’ first-blood and concede rates into one shared scale, and the two sides always sum to 100. It’s an estimate, not a certainty or a settled probability.
Is there a graded record for these first-blood reads?
No. StatsBench does not publish a settled-bet record for this market, and nothing on this page should be read as a tracked win rate. The numbers shown are team rates, samples, matchup estimates and posted prices.
How often does this page update?
Daily. The same URL is refreshed with the current slate rather than published as a new post, so today’s version reflects the August 19, 2026 board and the fixtures listed above.