This page updates every day with fresh numbers, and today is October 15, 2026. Today’s Bundesliga prop picks all come from one fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln, plus the both-teams-to-score market on that same match.
Hit rates below come from real match logs. They tell you how often a player cleared a specific line recently, and they come with the sample size so you can judge how much weight the number deserves. Odds are the best price StatsBench tracked when we wrote this, and they move all day, so shop the line before you bet.
Bundesliga prop picks for October 15, 2026
| Prop | Recent hit rate | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Thijs Dallinga OVER 0.5 shots on target | 100% (3/3) | -200 (bet365) |
| Luka Lochoshvili OVER 0.5 shots | 80% (4/5) | -130 (BetMGM) |
| Ansgar Knauff OVER 0.5 fouls | 80% (8/10) | -256 (sportsbet) |
| Said El Mala OVER 0.5 shots on target | 80% (8/10) | -300 (bet365) |
| Mikey Steven Danny Moore OVER 0.5 shots on target | 75% (3/4) | -125 (bet365) |
| Can Uzun OVER 0.5 shots on target | 70% (7/10) | -182 (BetRivers) |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln, both teams to score | SGE 90% / KOE 100%, combined 95% | -320 |
Thijs Dallinga OVER 0.5 shots on target (-200, bet365)
Dallinga has cleared 0.5 shots on target in 100% of his recent matches, but that sample is 3/3, so treat the percentage as a hint rather than a rule. The matchup helps him: Frankfurt allow 4.4 shots on target per match to forwards, which ranks 17th-fewest of 18 against a league average of 2.8 (5-match sample), and our model tags that as a soft matchup for the over. At -200 the price is short, so the case rests on the soft matchup more than on three matches of history.
Luka Lochoshvili OVER 0.5 shots (-130, BetMGM)
Lochoshvili is 4/5 on this line, and his last five matches sit at 80%, the same as the wider window, so there’s no fade signal hiding in the trend. The matchup is neutral rather than helpful: Frankfurt allow 2.2 shots per match to defenders, 7th-fewest of 18 against a league average of 2.5 (5-match sample), an average spot by our numbers. At -130 he doesn’t need to dominate, just to get one shot away across 90 minutes.
Ansgar Knauff OVER 0.5 fouls (-256, sportsbet)
Knauff’s last-10 rate is 8/10 on fouls, and the last five is even better at 100%, so recent form is running with him, not against him. His minutes are climbing too, from 43.6 per match across the L10 to 57.4 across the L5, which is more time on the pitch and more chances to make a challenge he doesn’t win cleanly. The catch is the opponent: Köln allow 2.6 fouls per match to forwards, 5th-fewest of 18 against a league average of 3.1 (5-match sample), a tough matchup for the over. At -256 you’re paying a steep price in a spot where the defense works against you.
Said El Mala OVER 0.5 shots on target (-300, bet365)
El Mala has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 matches, and the L5 sits at the same 80%, so the trend is flat rather than fading. Frankfurt allow 4.4 shots on target per match to forwards, which is 17th-fewest of 18 against a league average of 2.8 (5-match sample), a soft matchup for the over. He’s priced at -300, the shortest number on this page, so the market already knows what the logs say.
Correlation note: El Mala’s score-or-assist market is the same player in the same match. One quiet afternoon sinks both, so don’t treat them as two separate bets.
Mikey Steven Danny Moore OVER 0.5 shots on target (-125, bet365)
Moore is 3/4 on shots on target, and at -125 he’s the cheapest price on this list. That 3/4 sample is the smallest on the page, so the percentage should carry less weight than the price does. He also has a shots over 1.5 market in the same fixture, and that’s the same player, not a second opinion.
Can Uzun OVER 0.5 shots on target (-182, BetRivers)
Uzun is 7/10 over his last 10 matches, but the last five drops to 60%, which is a split worth flagging instead of hiding. That’s a mild fade signal, and it’s why this pick sits lower on the page. The matchup is friendly: Köln allow 2.2 shots on target per match to midfielders, 14th-fewest of 18 against a league average of 1.6 (5-match sample), a soft matchup for the over. -182 is a middle-of-the-road price on a player whose recent form is drifting the wrong way.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln: both teams to score (-320)
Both sides are scoring right now. Frankfurt have hit this in 90% of their last 10 matches and Köln in 100%, a combined 95%. Köln are the side carrying the number, and the two prior meetings between these clubs both went over. That head-to-head count is history rather than current form, so don’t read 2/2 as a trend. At -320 you’re being paid very little for a lot of agreement, which is the honest trade here.
Do these props all move together?
Yes, and that matters more than the individual percentages. Every pick on this page comes from Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln, so the game script is a shared variable. A slow, cagey match with few fouls and few shots can sink five or six of these at once.
Two pairs are tied to a single player:
- Said El Mala: shots on target and score or assist are the same performance.
- Mikey Steven Danny Moore: shots on target and shots over 1.5 are the same performance.
Stacking correlated props multiplies the same risk rather than spreading it. If you play two or three of these, size them like one bet, not like three.
How StatsBench builds these hit rates
Hit rate is straightforward: we log how often a player cleared a specific line across his recent matches, then show the sample size so you can judge it yourself. The last-5 column matters because a player at 80% over 10 matches and 40% over five is heading the wrong way, even when the headline number still looks fine.
Where a card shows a gap between the last-10 hit rate and the de-vigged market price, we call it a recent-form gap. It is not EV, it is not a projection, and a 10-match sample will overstate it. Treat a big gap as a reason to shop the line across books, not as a lock.
Odds shown are the best price we tracked at the time of writing, pulled from roughly 60 sportsbooks. They move all day, and line shopping is free closing line value if you take the time.
A quick responsible gambling note
These are research notes, not guarantees. Even a 100% hit rate over three matches is still three matches, and variance runs both ways over a season. Bet within your means, 21+, and if betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are today’s Bundesliga prop picks?
All seven markets on this page come from Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln, including four shots on target lines, two fouls lines, one shots line, and the both-teams-to-score market. Each one lists its recent hit rate with the sample size and the best price StatsBench tracked.
How does StatsBench calculate these hit rates?
We log how often a player cleared a specific line across his recent matches, then publish the rate alongside the sample so you can weigh it. A 3/4 sample and an 8/10 sample are not the same thing, even when both readings look strong.
Should I bet all of these picks together?
No. Every pick here comes from the same fixture, and two of them pair up on the same player, so stacking multiplies one shared risk instead of diversifying it. If you play several, treat them as a single position.
Are these props guaranteed to hit?
No. Hit rates describe what already happened in a small sample, and short prices like -300 still lose regularly. Bet within your means, 21+, and call 1-800-GAMBLER if you need support.