Burnley host Wolves on October 15, 2026, and the fixture (per the EFL schedule) sets up a board that leans on tackles and fouls rather than goals. This page is rebuilt every day with the latest EFL Championship prop picks, so the lines and prices below are today’s, not last week’s leftovers.
Everything here comes from real match logs. Each pick shows the line, how often the player cleared it in recent matches, the last-five trend and the price the book was hanging. No projections, no filler, and no number that isn’t in the data.
EFL Championship prop picks today: the Burnley vs Wolves board
| Market | Recent hit rate | Last 5 | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pires Silva OVER 1.5 tackles | 71.4% (5/7) | 100% | -175 at sportsbet |
| Mateus Bula Dami Mané OVER 0.5 fouls | 77.8% (7/9) | 80% | -227 at bwin |
| Adam Armstrong OVER 0.5 fouls | 70% (7/10) | 100% | -204 at bwin |
| Largie Ramazani OVER 0.5 tackles | 71.4% (5/7) | 80% | -278 at sportsbet |
| Igor Júlio dos Santos de Paulo OVER 0.5 fouls | 80% (4/5) | 80% | -213 at bwin |
| J. Bellegarde OVER 1.5 tackles | 66.7% (2/3) | 66.7% | -145 at sportsbet |
| Ladislav Krejčí OVER 0.5 shots | 66.7% (2/3) | 66.7% | -175 at betmgm |
| Burnley vs Wolves: Both Teams to Score YES | 79% combined (Burnley 90%, Wolves 67%) | n/a | -175 |
Every pick below is the over side of the line (or the yes side on the goals market), because that’s the side StatsBench scores. The percentage is simply how often it cleared across recent matches.
Which picks on this page are correlated?
All eight picks come from one fixture, Burnley vs Wolves. One game script, whether that’s an early goal, a red card or a side sitting deep, moves every one of them at once. Stacking several of these multiplies the same risk instead of spreading it, so treat the list as a menu rather than a parlay.
Two players also show up more than once on the full snapshot board. Largie Ramazani has a fouls line and a tackles line, and Ladislav Krejčí has shots, fouls and score-or-assist markets. This page uses one market each, so no single player’s night gets counted twice toward the results.
The player props
Quick read on the matchups attached to these props:
- Soft spots: Silva, Bellegarde and Krejčí all draw opponents who allow more than the league average in the relevant stat.
- Tough spots: Mané and Armstrong both run into a Burnley side that allows 2 fouls per match to forwards, 3rd-fewest of 24.
- No matchup line: Ramazani and Igor, so those two stand on their own form only.
Lucas Pires Silva OVER 1.5 tackles (71.4%, -175 at sportsbet)
Silva has cleared 1.5 tackles in 71.4% of his recent matches (5/7), and the last five are perfect at 100%. His workload backs that up: 65.2 minutes per match over the L5 versus 50.3 over the L10, a rise of 14.9 minutes. More pitch time means more tackle chances, and Wolves profile as a soft opponent for defenders. They allow 8 tackles per match to defenders, 24th-fewest of 24 (league average 5.6), a soft matchup that favors the over.
Mateus Bula Dami Mané OVER 0.5 fouls (77.8%, -227 at bwin)
Mané owns the sturdiest foul sample on this board at 77.8% across recent matches (7/9), and the L5 sits at 80%, so the shorter window agrees with the bigger one. He needs one foul to cash. Burnley makes that harder, since they allow 2 fouls per match to forwards, 3rd-fewest of 24 (league average 2.7), a tough matchup. The rate is real, but he’ll likely have to earn it himself.
Adam Armstrong OVER 0.5 fouls (70%, -204 at bwin)
Armstrong is at 70% over his recent matches (7/10) with a perfect 100% across the last five, so form is moving his way. His minutes are moving too: 89 per match over the L5 against 67.3 over the L10, a 21.7-minute jump that gives him more chances to get involved. Same wrinkle as Mané, mind you. Burnley allows just 2 fouls per match to forwards, 3rd-fewest of 24 (league average 2.7), a tough matchup for the over.
Largie Ramazani OVER 0.5 tackles (71.4%, -278 at sportsbet)
This is a one-tackle line, and Ramazani has cleared it in 71.4% of recent matches (5/7) with the last five at 80%. The L5 confirms the headline rate instead of contradicting it, which counts for something in a market where one tackle settles the bet. The -278 price is the cost of that comfort. There’s no matchup line on this prop, so the case rests on his own numbers.
Igor Júlio dos Santos de Paulo OVER 0.5 fouls (80%, -213 at bwin)
Igor has cleared 0.5 fouls in 80% of recent matches, though that’s a 4-of-5 sample, so one match swings the rate by 20 points. The L5 reads 80% as well, which says nothing has changed lately. No matchup line is attached to this prop, so the case is his own form against a -213 price.
J. Bellegarde OVER 1.5 tackles (66.7%, -145 at sportsbet)
Bellegarde’s 66.7% comes from a three-match sample (2/3), and the last five shows the same number. That’s a thin window, so treat this as a price check rather than a strong read. The matchup helps, though. Burnley allows 7.7 tackles per match to midfielders, 20th-fewest of 24 (league average 6.4), a soft matchup that favors the over, and -145 is the shortest tackle price on the board.
Ladislav Krejčí OVER 0.5 shots (66.7%, -175 at betmgm)
Krejčí sits at 66.7% (2/3) with an identical last-five figure, another three-match sample where one quiet outing rewrites the story. Burnley gives defenders room to shoot: they allow 2.1 shots per match to defenders, 22nd-fewest of 24 (league average 1.8), a soft matchup that favors the over. He needs a single shot at -175, and the snapshot board also lists him in fouls and score-or-assist markets.
The fixture market
Burnley vs Wolves: Both Teams to Score YES (-175)
Over their last nine matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Burnley’s and 67% of Wolves’, a combined 79%. Burnley’s side is carrying that number, and the gap between the two is wide. The yes price is -175. It’s a fixture market, so it doesn’t hinge on one player’s minutes or a starting XI call, but it rides the same game script as the props above.
Where do these hit rates come from?
Hit rate is the share of a player’s recent league matches where he cleared the line, counted from real match logs. A 7/10 means he cleared it seven times in his last 10. No projection model sits behind it.
Sample size decides how much a number is worth. A 7/9 sample is sturdier than a 2/3 one, and the last-five column shows whether the rate is holding or fading. When the L5 and the bigger sample disagree, the writeup says so instead of hiding it.
Soccer props on StatsBench don’t carry an edge percentage, just the hit rate, the sample and the price you can actually get. Prices move, so shop the number across books before you commit. StatsBench tracks roughly 60 sportsbooks, and the prices above came from the best of them when this page was built.
21+ and please bet responsibly. Nothing here is a guarantee, and short samples swing hard in both directions. The math only works over a long run, with stakes you can afford and only where betting is legal where you live. If it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EFL Championship props stand out on October 15, 2026?
The board is built around Burnley vs Wolves. Lucas Pires Silva OVER 1.5 tackles has the cleanest trend at 71.4% in recent matches (5/7) with the last five at 100%, and Mateus Bula Dami Mané OVER 0.5 fouls has the biggest foul sample at 77.8% (7/9). Treat the list as researched numbers, not guarantees.
What does hit rate mean on these props?
It’s the share of a player’s recent league matches where he cleared the listed line. A 7/10 means he cleared it in seven of his last 10 matches. The sample size is always shown so you can judge how much weight it deserves.
Why do some props here have a 2/3 sample?
Those players have shorter recent-match windows on the board. A 2/3 rate means one match flips the whole read, so the matchup and the price matter more than the headline number. We flag the thin samples rather than dress them up.
What is the both-teams-to-score record for Burnley vs Wolves?
Over their last nine matches, both teams scored in 90% of Burnley’s and 67% of Wolves’, a combined 79%, priced at -175. Burnley’s side carries the number. It’s a fixture market, so it doesn’t depend on any single player’s minutes.
Are these prop picks guaranteed to hit?
No. These are data-backed research notes, and every number carries a failure rate with it. Short samples swing hard, which is why bankroll management matters more than any single pick.