This page refreshes every day with a new board, so bookmark it instead of hunting for a fresh post each morning. Today is October 23, 2026, and the slate gives us two games worth mining: Montreal at Chicago and Tampa Bay at Colorado. Below are seven NHL prop picks today that clear the bar on recent hit rate and price, with the exact line, odds, and last-10 sample listed for each one.
NHL Prop Picks Today: The Board at a Glance
Every rate below is the over side of the posted line, counted across the player’s last 10 games. Prices come from the books named in each pick.
| Player | Market | Line | Last 10 | Last 5 | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson | Shots on goal | Over 1.5 | 9/10 (90%) | 100% | -150 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | Points | Over 0.5 | 7/10 (70%) | 100% | +105 |
| Connor Bedard | Assists | Over 0.5 | 7/10 (70%) | 60% | +100 |
| Brandon Hagel | Points | Over 0.5 | 7/10 (70%) | 80% | -170 |
| Josh Manson | Hits | Over 1.5 | 7/10 (70%) | 80% | -205 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | Points | Over 0.5 | 6/10 (60%) | 80% | +120 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Points | Over 1.5 | 6/10 (60%) | 40% | +105 |
Montreal at Chicago
Lane Hutson OVER 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150, DraftKings)
Nine of ten recent games over 1.5 shots on goal is the top rate on this board, and the last five at 100% agrees with it. No fade signal hiding in the recent form. The catch is the price: -150 needs roughly 60% to break even, and the +34.2% recent-form gap is built on a 10-game sample that tends to overstate things. Shop for the best number before you commit.
Connor Bedard OVER 0.5 Assists (+100, DraftKings)
Bedard’s assist line has cleared in 7 of 10 recent games, though the last five slipped to 3 of 5 (60%), so there is mild softening in the trend. The +23.5% recent-form gap is large for an assist market, and +100 means you aren’t paying a premium for it. One thing to know: Bedard also has a points line posted at -225 tonight, and that is the same player’s performance driving both markets. Don’t treat them as two independent bets.
Correlation note: Hutson and Bedard sit on opposite sides of the same game, so one scoreline and one pace of play drives both props. Play them as one position, not two.
Colorado vs Tampa Bay
Artturi Lehkonen OVER 0.5 Points (+105, DraftKings)
A points prop here means a goal or an assist, nothing else. Lehkonen cleared 0.5 in 7 of 10 recent games and went 5 for 5 in his last five, which is the direction you want to see. At +105 you’re getting plus money on a 70% recent rate, and the +24.8% recent-form gap says the market line hasn’t caught up. Small-sample caveat applies, but this is the cleanest price-to-rate combo on the slate.
Brandon Hagel OVER 0.5 Points (-170, DraftKings)
Hagel has cleared 0.5 points in 7 of 10 recent games and 4 of his last 5 (80%), so the short-term trend and the baseline agree. The issue is the -170 price, which needs roughly 63% to break even against a 70% recent rate. That’s a thin cushion for a 10-game sample, and the +11.4% recent-form gap is the smallest among the forwards here. Take it at -170 or better, and pass if the number climbs.
Josh Manson OVER 1.5 Hits (-205, Stake)
Hits props run streaky, so a 7 of 10 base with a 4 of 5 recent run is about as steady as this market gets. The -205 at Stake is the steepest price on the page, needing about 67% to break even against a 70% base rate. That’s close to a wash on value, and the +10.2% recent-form gap is modest confirmation rather than a reason to load up. Play it small or skip it.
Gabriel Landeskog OVER 0.5 Points (+120, DraftKings)
Six of ten recent games is the weakest baseline in this group, but the last five went 4 of 5 (80%), so the trend line is moving the right way. Plus money at +120 on a player heating up is the appeal, and the +17.8% recent-form gap backs the idea that the price is behind the form. Points means goal or assist, so usage and role matter more than shooting luck here.
Nathan MacKinnon OVER 1.5 Points (+105, DraftKings)
The honest read: 6 of 10 over 1.5 points across the recent window, but only 2 of the last 5 (40%). That is a fading trend, and it’s the one pick here where the last five and the last ten disagree in a way that matters. The +14.8% recent-form gap is propped up by the earlier games in the window, and +105 is the main thing keeping this on the page. If you play it, keep the stake small.
Correlation note: Lehkonen, Manson, Landeskog and MacKinnon all play for Colorado, while Hagel is on the Tampa side. Five props from one game means one scoreline drives all of them. Stacking them multiplies the same risk, it does not diversify it.
How StatsBench Builds These Numbers
Every hit rate on this page comes from a player’s actual game logs, counting how many of his last 10 games cleared the posted line. The recent-form gap compares that last-10 over rate to a de-vigged fair price pulled from sharp books, so it measures form against the market, not a projection.
Two things to keep straight. A 10-game sample is small, and a big gap off a tiny sample is a reason to shop the line, not a lock. The long-run edges that hold up over thousands of bets sit in the single digits, nowhere near the headline numbers you see above.
Bet within your means, and treat this as research plus your own judgment. Nothing here is a guarantee, 21+ only, and short-run variance can make a good process look bad for weeks. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the recent-form gap mean in these NHL prop picks?
It’s the player’s last-10 over hit rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability on that line. It’s a form signal only, not an edge or a projection. A large gap built on 10 games overstates the case, so use it to decide whether to shop the price, not as a reason to bet bigger.
Why are so many of today’s picks from the Colorado vs Tampa Bay game?
That game has the deepest set of props clearing our filters on this slate. It also means those picks are correlated: one scoreline drives Lehkonen, Manson, Landeskog and MacKinnon at the same time. Stacking them multiplies the same risk instead of spreading it.
How does StatsBench calculate the hit rates?
We count how many of a player’s last 10 games cleared the exact posted line, using real game logs. That’s why you’ll see rates like 7/10 or 9/10 rather than a season-long percentage. Early in the year, those 10 games can reach back into last season.
Are these picks guaranteed to win?
No. These are research-backed looks at mispriced lines, and any single night can go against you. The long-run edge is small and variance is real, so bet within your means. 21+ only.
