This page is the StatsBench college football prop picks card for the week, and it refreshes every day through the games. Today is October 15, 2026, and this week’s kickoffs run Friday, October 16 through Saturday, October 17.
Seven overs made the cut. Every hit rate below comes from real game logs, every price is the one the snapshot pulled, and nothing here is a projection. No locks, no guarantees.
| Player | Market | Recent | Last 5 | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA) | Over 6.5 rec yards | 9/9 | 100% | -108 Bovada |
| Jordan Marshall (MICH) | Over 0.5 rec yards | 9/9 | 100% | -111 bet365 |
| Aaron Philo (FLA) | Over 180.5 pass yards | 7/7 | 100% | -110 Bovada |
| Jaylin Carter (MEM) | Over 6.5 rec yards | 9/9 | 100% | -112 Bovada |
| Hogan Hansen (MICH) | Over 12.5 rec yards | 4/4 | 100% | -116 bet365 |
| Carson Hansen (PSU) | Over 4.5 rec yards | 10/10 | 100% | -116 bet365 |
| Jack Foley (WAKE) | Over 49.5 rec yards | 4/4 | 100% | -106 Prophet Exchange |
This Week’s College Football Prop Picks
Mark Fletcher Jr. OVER 6.5 Receiving Yards (MIA vs FSU)
Fletcher has cleared this 6.5-yard line in 9 of his last 9 games, and the last five sit at 100% too, so the short window and the wider one agree. That matters for a back who can clear the number on one short catch. The recent-form gap against the de-vigged price is +51.2%, which is the kind of figure a nine-game sample inflates, so treat it as a reason to shop the number rather than a projection.
FSU is a soft draw for the over. The Seminoles allow 25.7 receiving yards per game to running backs, 93rd-fewest of 136, which lands above the 22.4 league average. Price is -108 at Bovada.
Jordan Marshall OVER 0.5 Receiving Yards (MICH vs PSU)
Marshall is 9 of 9 with the last five also at 100%, and the recent-form gap is +50.9%. Read past the perfect record for a second, though. At 0.5 receiving yards this is really a question of whether he catches one pass, so you’re betting his role in the offense, not his yardage.
The matchup argues for patience. Penn State allows 14.0 receiving yards per game to running backs, 26th-fewest of 136 and well under the 22.4 league average, so the Nittany Lions are among the toughest in the country against backs in the passing game. He’s -111 at bet365.
Aaron Philo OVER 180.5 Passing Yards (FLA @ TEX)
Philo has topped 180.5 passing yards in 7 of his last 7 games, with the last five at 100%, so this is consistency rather than one hot afternoon. Seven games is also the thinnest sample of any quarterback on this page, and a +50.8% recent-form gap off seven games shrinks fast if he has one quiet half.
Texas is the hard part. The Longhorns allow 168.4 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, 22nd-fewest of 136 against a 207.8 league average, so they hold passers under this line on average. A road spot against that defense is the real test. Price: -110 at Bovada.
Jaylin Carter OVER 6.5 Receiving Yards (MEM @ TULN)
Carter is 9 of 9 on this 6.5-yard line, and the last five don’t disagree, which is the read you want: no sign of a shrinking role. The recent-form gap of +50.3% is another small-sample figure, so use it as a nudge to check the best available price instead of a projected total.
Tulane sits right in the middle here. The Green Wave allow 20.4 receiving yards per game to running backs, 65th-fewest of 136 against the 22.4 league average. A neutral matchup means this pick leans on Carter’s usage, and he’s -112 at Bovada.
Hogan Hansen OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards (MICH vs PSU)
Hansen is 4 of 4, the smallest sample on this card, and that’s worth saying out loud. Four games can look perfect by accident, and a +50% recent-form gap at that size is mostly noise. The matchup, not the streak, is what carries this one.
Penn State has been generous to tight ends, allowing 43.7 receiving yards per game to the position, 115th-fewest of 136 and well above the 31.7 league average. A tight end with two or three targets can clear 12.5 yards on a single catch. He’s -116 at bet365.
Carson Hansen OVER 4.5 Receiving Yards (PSU @ MICH)
Ten of 10 is the longest recent sample on this page, and the last five also sit at 100%, so there’s no split between the short view and the long one. The line is only 4.5 yards, which makes this another workload check: one catch clears it. The recent-form gap is +50% and the price is -116 at bet365.
Michigan allows 17.2 receiving yards per game to running backs, 46th-fewest of 136 against a 22.4 league average, so the matchup is close to neutral. Nothing in the defensive data pushes this one either way.
Correlation note: picks 5, 8 and 9 all come from the same MICH vs PSU game. Marshall, Hogan Hansen and Carson Hansen share one game script, so stacking all three multiplies the same risk instead of spreading it. Carson Hansen also shows up twice in the snapshot (receiving yards and longest reception), and those two markets ride the same catch.
Jack Foley OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (WAKE @ CAL)
Foley is 4 of 4 on this line with the last five at 100%, and the recent-form gap reads +48.5%. The sample is small and 49.5 is the biggest number on the card, so a quiet half or an early exit stings more here than a missed 4.5-yard check-down would. Cal is a neutral matchup: the Golden Bears allow 141.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, 46th-fewest of 136 against a 154.4 league average.
Correlation note: Foley appears in four rows of this week’s snapshot (anytime touchdown, receiving touchdown, longest reception, receiving yards). Only the 49.5 receiving yards market is on the card, but betting any of the others means betting the same performance from him.
How StatsBench builds the hit rate and the recent-form gap
Start with the game logs. StatsBench pulls a player’s recent games (last season included this early in the year), counts how often he cleared that exact line, and reports it as a fraction. So 9/9 means nine straight, and it says nothing about whether he makes it ten.
The recent-form gap is the last-10 over hit rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability for that line. It’s a form signal only. It is not EV, not a projection, and not a promised return. A big gap off a 10-game sample overstates itself, and our validated long-run edges are far smaller, in the single digits.
Prices move all week, so re-check the number before you act on anything below.
Why some 100% props missed the card
Three rows in this week’s snapshot show a perfect recent record at plus money: Jack Foley’s anytime touchdown at +155, his receiving touchdown at +155, and Byrum Brown’s anytime touchdown at +130. That combination is a red flag, not a gift.
When a book leaves plus money on a market with a perfect recent record, the usual explanation is a stale line or a data quirk, not a market that forgot to adjust. We left those out of the picks. If you look at those markets anyway, verify the live price at your book first, because the number you see may be nothing like the one in the snapshot.
Responsible gambling
21+. These are research notes, not guarantees. A 100% recent hit rate describes what already happened, and short samples carry real variance. Bet within your means, treat it as entertainment, and call 1-800-GAMBLER if it stops being fun.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are this week’s college football prop picks?
Seven overs: Mark Fletcher Jr. over 6.5 receiving yards, Jordan Marshall over 0.5 receiving yards, Aaron Philo over 180.5 passing yards, Jaylin Carter over 6.5 receiving yards, Hogan Hansen over 12.5 receiving yards, Carson Hansen over 4.5 receiving yards, and Jack Foley over 49.5 receiving yards. Every hit rate and price comes straight from the snapshot above, with the game day listed for each player. None of them is a guarantee, and lines move during the week.
What does the recent-form gap mean on these picks?
It’s the last-10 over hit rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability for that exact line. It’s a recent-form signal, not EV and not a projected result, so a large gap off a small sample usually overstates the case. Pair it with the sample size before you draw any conclusion from it.
Why aren’t the props with 100% hit rates at plus money on the card?
Because that combination is a warning sign rather than an opportunity. When a market with a perfect recent record is priced at +155 or +130, the line is probably stale or the underlying data is off, so we don’t headline those rows. If you look at them anyway, confirm the current price at your book before acting.
Are any of these picks correlated with each other?
Yes. Jordan Marshall, Hogan Hansen and Carson Hansen all play in the MICH vs PSU game, so their overs share one game script. Jack Foley’s other markets in the snapshot (anytime touchdown, receiving touchdown and longest reception) ride the same performance as his receiving yards over, so treat them as one bet rather than four.
How often does this page update?
It refreshes every day through the week of the October 16 to 17 slate. The numbers come from the snapshot pulled for that day, so hit rates and prices can change between visits.