This page of LoL prop picks refreshes every day, and today is September 20, 2026. Two series are in play: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI and FlyQuest vs Team Liquid. Every line below is the over side, and every hit rate comes from a player’s last 10 series in the game logs.
Seven markets made the cut. Six are map 1 kill lines and one is a fixture market on total kills. Here’s the short version before the detail:
- BrokenBlade OVER 2.5 map 1 kills, 9/10 series, -147
- Supa OVER 2.5 map 1 kills, 8/10 series, -161
- Jojopyun OVER 2.5 map 1 kills, 7/10 series, -125
- Gryffinn OVER 2.5 map 1 kills, 7/10 series, -125
- Quid OVER 4.5 map 1 kills, 6/10 series, -105
- Morgan OVER 2.5 map 1 kills, 5/10 series, +100
- Team Liquid vs FlyQuest OVER 25.5 total kills per game, -125
Hit rate is the share of those 10 series where the player cleared the line. On its own it says nothing about tonight, so each pick pairs it with the last-5 trend and the recent-form gap.
LoL prop picks: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI
This series holds the loudest number on the board and one clear fade signal. BrokenBlade is the headline, Jojopyun is the caution flag.
BrokenBlade OVER 2.5 map 1 kills (-147 @ thunderpick)
BrokenBlade cleared 2.5 kills in map 1 in 9 of his last 10 series, and he’s 5 for 5 across the last five. That 90% recent rate sits 35 points above the de-vigged price, the biggest recent-form gap here. Ten series is a thin sample, so the honest read is that the number is a reason to compare prices across books, not a forecast that 9 of 10 keeps repeating.
Supa OVER 2.5 map 1 kills (-161 @ thunderpick)
Supa is on the KOI side of the same series and he’s cleared this line in 8 of 10 recent series, with a clean last five. The head-to-head sample backs it up: 3 of 3 meetings against G2 have gone over. His recent-form gap is +23%, though at -161 the market already agrees with most of it, so the part worth trusting is the last-5 and last-10 windows pointing the same direction.
Jojopyun OVER 2.5 map 1 kills (-125 @ thunderpick)
Jojopyun is the fade case on this page. He’s 7 of 10 on the ten-series window, but only 3 of the last 5, so recent form is weaker than the headline rate. Against G2 he’s 2 of 3 meetings over, and his recent-form gap is +18.6% at -125. When the last five disagree with the last ten, the gap tends to shrink before the price does.
Correlation note: BrokenBlade, Supa and Jojopyun all settle inside the same G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI series. Three props from one series stack the same game script, they don’t spread the risk.
What stands out in FlyQuest vs Team Liquid?
The second series is tighter. Two improving trends, one high line, and one market where the price and the logs mostly agree.
Gryffinn OVER 2.5 map 1 kills (-125 @ thunderpick)
Gryffinn is trending the right way. He’s 7 of 10 over this line in recent series, and 4 of the last 5, so the recent window is stronger than the ten-series number. His recent-form gap is +18.6% against a -125 price. A trend that points the same direction as the fuller sample is the cleaner setup on this board.
Quid OVER 4.5 map 1 kills (-105 @ thunderpick)
Quid’s line is the outlier today: 4.5 map 1 kills, two kills above every other player line here. He’s cleared it in 6 of 10 recent series and 3 of the last 5, so both windows say the same thing. The recent-form gap is +12.7% with the over at -105, close to even money. Hitting 60% on a line that high is a different ask than 60% on 2.5, and the price reflects that.
Morgan OVER 2.5 map 1 kills (+100 @ thunderpick)
Morgan is the honest one. He’s 5 of 10 over 2.5 map 1 kills and 2 of the last 5, so neither window runs hot, and his recent-form gap is just +3.8%. The over is priced at +100. The logs and the market mostly agree here, which makes the plus-money price the only real reason he’s on this page.
Team Liquid vs FlyQuest OVER 25.5 total kills per game (-125 @ thunderpick)
This is a fixture market, not a player line. Team Liquid have gone over 25.5 kills in 80% of their last 10 games, FlyQuest have done the same in 80% of theirs, and the combined rate is 80%. Neither side is carrying that number alone. Their last-10 averages also sit above the line at 28.9 kills for Team Liquid and 31.5 for FlyQuest, and the over is -125.
Correlation note: Gryffinn, Quid, Morgan and the 25.5 total-kills market all come from the same FlyQuest vs Team Liquid fixture. Four positions tied to one game script, not four independent chances.
How does StatsBench calculate hit rate and the recent-form gap?
Hit rate counts how often a player cleared the line across their last 10 series in the game logs. Map 1 props are graded on map 1 only. The last-5 mark sits beside it as a trend check, and when the two disagree we say so rather than quoting the friendlier one.
The recent-form gap is the last-10 over rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability at the posted price. It is a recent-form signal, nothing more. A 10-series sample overstates it, so a big number is a prompt to shop the line, not a projection of tonight. The same game-log data feeds the filters in Prop Finder and the Consistency Grades.
What should you remember before betting these props?
Every number on this page describes what already happened. None of it promises what happens next. You must be 21 or older, and betting rules vary by region, so check yours before you place anything.
Bet within your means and use a unit size you can repeat for months, because short samples swing hard in both directions. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which League of Legends props stand out today?
The two series on the board are G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI and FlyQuest vs Team Liquid. BrokenBlade sits highest at 9 of 10 recent series over 2.5 map 1 kills, while Morgan is the closest call at 5 of 10 with a +3.8% recent-form gap. Every line and price on the page comes straight from the game logs and the posted odds.
How does StatsBench get its hit rates?
We pull each player’s last 10 series from the game logs and count how often they cleared the line. Map 1 props are graded on map 1 only. The last-5 figure is shown next to it so you can see whether a player is trending up or fading.
What does the recent-form gap mean on these props?
It is the last-10 over hit rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability at the posted price. So a player at 80% against a price that implies 55% shows a 25-point gap. It is a recent-form signal only, and a small 10-series sample overstates it, so treat a large gap as a reason to shop the line.
What is a map 1 kills prop in LoL?
It settles on a single map inside a best-of series, in this case the first map. A hit rate is how often the player cleared that line across their recent series, not their recent maps. Map-window props like maps 1-2 exclude best-of-1 series from the sample by design.
Are these props guaranteed to hit?
No. Each number describes past results, and past results do not promise future ones. Bet within your means, expect short samples to swing hard, and remember you must be 21 or older. Help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.