Best EPL Prop Picks for Friday, November 6, 2026 (Data-Backed)

These EPL prop picks cover Friday’s matches on November 6, 2026, and this page refreshes daily with a fresh set of lines, hit rates and matchup notes. Every number below comes from real game logs, not a gut feel. The card is unusually concentrated: all eight props are tied to one fixture, Everton hosting Coventry, so read the correlation note before you stack anything.

Each pick lists the line, the price and the book it came from, plus how often the player cleared that number across his recent league matches. Where the last five and the last ten disagree, the writeup says so. A fading trend matters more than a shiny headline hit rate, and hiding that would make this page useless.

Friday’s EPL prop picks at a glance

Player	Market	Recent hit rate	Last 5	Price
Sidiki Cherif	Fouls won over 0.5	5/5 (100%)	100%	-200 bet365
B. Thomas	Shots over 0.5	6/8 (75%)	80%	-137 bet365
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall	Tackles over 1.5	7/10 (70%)	60%	-170 DraftKings
Jake O’Brien	Fouls over 0.5	7/10 (70%)	40%	-200 DraftKings
J. Rudoni	Shots on target over 0.5	6/9 (66.7%)	60%	-108 BetMGM
B. Thomas-Asante	Fouls won over 1.5	6/9 (66.7%)	80%	-110 bet365
James Tarkowski	Fouls over 0.5	6/10 (60%)	80%	-137 bet365
Jarrad Branthwaite	Shots over 0.5	6/10 (60%)	60%	-150 DraftKings

Correlation note: picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 are all from the same game. Fouls won by Coventry players (Cherif, Thomas-Asante) and fouls committed by Everton defenders (O’Brien, Tarkowski) move with the same referee and the same game script. A quiet, well-officiated match can sink both sides of that pair at once. Stacking these multiplies one risk, it does not spread it.

Coventry vs Everton player props, pick by pick

Today’s picks at a glance

Hit rate: how often the player cleared this line over his last ten matches or as many as he has played (in brackets); L5: the last five. Each pick’s card and write-up follow below.

Sidiki Cherif OVER 0.5 fouls won (-200, bet365), 5/5 recent matches

This is the thinnest sample on the page. Five recent matches, and he cleared 0.5 fouls won in every one, so the last-5 and last-10 windows agree at 100%. The problem is the matchup: Everton concedes 2.3 fouls won per match to forwards, the fewest of 20 clubs against a league average of 3.6. That is the worst possible opponent for this market, and -200 is a price that already assumes the streak continues.

B. Thomas OVER 0.5 shots (-137, bet365), 6/8 recent matches

Six of eight recent matches and 80% across the last five, so the two windows point the same direction. The bar is a single shot. Everton concedes 2.2 shots per match to defenders, 10th-fewest of 20 against a 2.4 league average, which the data calls an average matchup. Nothing here jumps off the page, but a defender who gets forward at -137 with a trend that isn’t fading is a fair volume bet.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall OVER 1.5 tackles (-170, DraftKings), 7/10 recent matches

The windows disagree, and not in his favor. He’s at 70% across ten recent matches but 60% across the last five, which reads like a player sliding rather than holding. Coventry concedes 4.9 tackles per match to midfielders, third-fewest of 20 against a 6.0 average, so the opponent is actively suppressing this market. At -170 you’re paying for the 7/10 while both recent signals and the matchup lean the other way. This is the least comfortable pick on the card.

Jake O’Brien OVER 0.5 fouls (-200, DraftKings), 7/10 recent matches

The biggest split on the page. He’s at 70% across ten recent matches and 40% across the last five. Minutes explain part of that: 43 per match in the last five versus 61 across the ten, a drop of 18. The matchup is the good news, since Coventry concedes 4.8 fouls per match to defenders, 15th-fewest of 20 against a 4.0 average. Soft opponent, shrinking role, -200 price. If he plays an hour this looks fine. If the last five matches are the new normal, the price is wrong.

J. Rudoni OVER 0.5 shots on target (-108, BetMGM), 6/9 recent matches

Six of nine recent matches at 66.7%, with 60% across the last five, so the trend is flat. The workload is moving the right way: 84.8 minutes per match in the last five versus 72.3 across the ten, a gain of 12.5. The matchup is the obstacle. Everton concedes 1.0 shots on target per match to midfielders, fifth-fewest of 20 against a 1.4 average. At -108 the price is roughly a coin flip, which fits a prop where the role is growing and the opponent is stingy.

B. Thomas-Asante OVER 1.5 fouls won (-110, bet365), 6/9 recent matches

6/9 at 66.7%, but 80% across the last five, the rare case where the shorter window is clearly better. Minutes back it up: 68.6 per match in the last five versus 53.4 across the ten, a jump of 15.2. Two things work against him. This is over 1.5, not 0.5, and Everton concedes 2.3 fouls won per match to forwards, the fewest of 20 against a 3.6 average. Rising role, hardest possible matchup, near even money.

James Tarkowski OVER 0.5 fouls (-137, bet365), 6/10 recent matches

He’s at 60% across ten recent matches but 80% across the last five, so he’s trending into the bet rather than out of it. Coventry concedes 4.8 fouls per match to defenders, 15th-fewest of 20 against a 4.0 average, one of the softer defender-foul spots in this matchup. The caveat is the price, because -137 is a lot to lay on a 60% recent rate. Note the correlation: this is the mirror image of Cherif’s fouls-won prop in the same match.

Jarrad Branthwaite OVER 0.5 shots (-150, DraftKings), 6/10 recent matches

Sixty percent across ten and 60% across the last five, so there’s no trend to lean on either way. What helps is the opponent: Coventry concedes 2.7 shots per match to defenders, 16th-fewest of 20 against a 2.4 average, so a center-back getting one header or one shot away is a normal outcome in this spot. The -150 price is the part that gives pause against a flat 60%.

How StatsBench builds these hit rates

Every percentage on this page is a count, not an estimate. StatsBench pulls each player’s recent league game logs and records whether he cleared that specific line, so a 7/10 means seven of his last ten matches finished above the number. The last-5 window is shown separately because a player’s role changes faster than a ten-match average reflects.

Matchup lines come from the opponent’s per-match allowance to that position, drawn from a nine-match sample, with the rank direction spelled out (rank 1 means fewest allowed, the toughest spot). Soccer props on StatsBench don’t carry a gap or edge figure, so none is quoted here. Lines and prices move, so confirm the current number at your book before betting.

Responsible gambling

These are research notes, not guarantees. A hit rate describes what already happened, and a player can miss a line he cleared in eight of ten matches. Bet within your means, treat it as entertainment, and remember that variance over a small number of bets is loud. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+ only, and legality varies by jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are EPL prop picks?

They are player-level bets on a single stat line, such as a defender going over 0.5 shots or a midfielder going over 1.5 tackles. StatsBench builds them from real game logs, so each one comes with a hit rate and a matchup note instead of a hunch. The page refreshes daily with the numbers behind each line.

How is the hit rate on this page calculated?

StatsBench counts how often the player cleared that exact line across his recent league matches. A 7/10 means seven of his last ten finished above the number. The last-5 window is listed separately so you can see whether the role is growing or fading.

Why do the last five and last ten matches disagree for some players?

Usually because minutes or role changed. Jake O’Brien is the clearest example here, at 70% across ten recent matches but 40% across the last five while his minutes dropped from 61 to 43. The short window is the better guide when the workload has clearly shifted.

Should I bet all eight props on the same game?

No. Every pick here comes from Everton vs Coventry, so the outcomes move together. Fouls won by Coventry forwards and fouls committed by Everton defenders depend on the same referee and the same game script, which means stacking them multiplies one risk rather than diversifying it.

Where should I get the price?

Shop it. The prices listed came from specific books (bet365, DraftKings, BetMGM) and they move through the day, so the number you see now may not be the number you get. StatsBench compares the best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges on every prop.