Heat vs Warriors Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 5, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Miami Heat logo

Heat3-5 · 2-6 ATS9th in the East
10:00 PM ETThu, Nov 5Win % 44–56
Golden State Warriors logo

Warriors5-3 · 6-2 ATS8th in the West

NBA · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Chase Center

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Miami Heat +240 +7.5 -108 O 235.5 -105
Golden State Warriors -278 -7.5 -105 U 235.5 -110

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 7:22 AM ET.

Heat vs Warriors preview

Golden State is favored at -180 on the moneyline and -6.5 on the spread, with the total at 237.5. Miami has gone 2-5 straight up and ATS this season, and 4-6 straight up and ATS over its last 10, most recently losing 117-138 at Los Angeles Lakers on November 2. Golden State is 5-3 straight up and 6-2 ATS, and 5-5 straight up with 6-4 ATS over its last 10, most recently beating Phoenix 116-113 on November 2. In the last meeting on January 19, 2026, Miami lost 112-135 on the road.

The defensive profile is the main angle: Miami allows 123.9 points (28th), 29.9 assists (30th), and 17.3 threes (30th) per game, while Golden State allows 41.3 rebounds (6th). Miami also plays at a 105.3 pace (2nd), which could keep possessions high. Golden State lists Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, and Gui Santos as out.

On the prop side, Brandin Podziemski’s over 1.5 threes is -210 after clearing it in 9 of his last 10, and the StatsBench model projects Yaxel Lendeborg at 4.5 assists against a 3.5 line after he cleared it in 5 of 8. Miami is 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Heat vs Warriors player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Brandon Williams GSW Over 0.5 stls blks -141 Cloudbet 90% (9/10) 80% –
Brandin Podziemski GSW Over 1.5 threes made -200 Hard Rock 90% (9/10) 80% –
Stephen Curry GSW Over 0.5 steals -240 Fanatics 90% (9/10) 80% 1.5
De’Anthony Melton GSW Over 3.5 rebounds +110 Fanatics 80% (8/10) 100% 5.4
Bam Adebayo MIA Over 1.5 stls blks -233 sportsbet 80% (8/10) 80% –

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 7:22 AM ET.

The rest of the Heat vs Warriors propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.
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Davion MitchellOver 1.5 threes made7/10
Giannis AntetokounmpoOver 11.5 rebounds7/10
Draymond GreenOver 0.5 steals7/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Brandin Podziemski vs Heat

Brandin PodziemskiSG, GSW
VS
HeatDefense vs shooting guards
Good matchup for Brandin PodziemskiHeat allow 5.4 threes a game to shooting guards, the most in the league. Podziemski averages 2.4 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest30th of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 1.59/10avg 2.4 · 30th of 30 vs SG · -200Hard Rock
Points over 16.58/10avg 18.2 · 30th of 30 vs SG · -105ESPN BET
Steals over 0.57/10avg 1 · 6th of 30 vs SG · -190Fanatics

Davion Mitchell vs Warriors

Davion MitchellPG, MIA
VS
WarriorsDefense vs point guards
Even matchupWarriors allow 3.9 threes a game to point guards, 12th most in the league. Mitchell averages 2.2 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest19th of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 1.57/10avg 2.2 · 19th of 30 vs PG · -112betus
Points + assists over 21.57/10avg 23.6 · 23rd of 30 vs PG · -114DraftKings
Steals over 0.57/10avg 1.4 · 27th of 30 vs PG · -250Fanatics

De’Anthony Melton vs Heat

De’Anthony MeltonPG, GSW
VS
HeatDefense vs point guards
Even matchupHeat allow 8.6 assists a game to point guards, 13th fewest in the league. Melton averages 2.4 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest13th of 30, assistsSoftest
Assists over 1.58/10avg 2.4 · 13th of 30 vs PG · -212Kalshi
Rebounds over 3.58/10avg 4.9 · 13th of 30 vs PG · +110Fanatics
Rebounds + assists over 5.58/10avg 7.3 · 13th of 30 vs PG · -120Fanatics

Giannis Antetokounmpo vs Warriors

Giannis AntetokounmpoPF, MIA
VS
WarriorsDefense vs power forwards
Even matchupWarriors allow 7.9 rebounds a game to power forwards, 11th fewest in the league. Antetokounmpo averages 12 against a line of 11.5.
Toughest11th of 30, reboundsSoftest
Rebounds over 11.57/10avg 12 · 11th of 30 vs PF · -113Kalshi
Blocks over 0.57/10avg 1 · 18th of 30 vs PF · -175Fanatics
Steals over 0.57/10avg 0.9 · 19th of 30 vs PF · -275Fanatics

Stephen Curry vs Heat

Stephen CurryPG, GSW
VS
HeatDefense vs point guards
Even matchupHeat allow 1.8 steals a game to point guards, 11th fewest in the league. Curry averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest11th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.59/10avg 1.4 · 11th of 30 vs PG · -240Fanatics
Turnovers over 2.56/10avg 2.5 · 14th of 30 vs PG · -118888sport
Rebounds over 3.55/10avg 3.9 · 13th of 30 vs PG · -105Fanatics

Bam Adebayo vs Warriors

Bam AdebayoC, MIA
VS
WarriorsDefense vs centers
Tough matchup for Bam AdebayoWarriors allow 1.0 steals a game to centers, 10th fewest in the league. Adebayo averages 2.1 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest10th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 1.57/10avg 2.1 · 10th of 30 vs C · +105Fanatics
Threes made over 0.55/10avg 0.6 · 1st of 30 vs C · -233Kalshi
Points + rebounds over 31.54/10avg 25.9 · 2nd of 30 vs C · -111DraftKings

Betting trends

  • Warriors have covered the spread in 6 straight games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected starting lineups

Projected starting fives. Teams confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip and this page updates then. Updated 7:22 AM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Miami HeatProjected
  1. PGDavion MitchellOver 1.5 threes made7/10
  2. SGKlay ThompsonOver 2.5 threes made6/10
  3. SFAndrew WigginsOver 1.5 assists5/10
  4. PFGiannis AntetokounmpoOver 11.5 rebounds7/10
  5. CBam AdebayoOver 1.5 steals7/10
Golden State WarriorsProjected
  1. PGStephen CurryOver 3.5 rebounds5/10
  2. SGBrandin PodziemskiOver 1.5 threes made9/10
  3. SFWill Richard
  4. PFYaxel LendeborgOver 3.5 assists5/8
  5. CDraymond Green

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Kristaps Porzingis (out), Jimmy Butler (out), Moses Moody (out), Gui Santos (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

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Heat vs Warriors defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Heat defense facing the Warriors

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGStephen Curry 31.818th 6.313th 8.613th 4.824th 46.617th
SGBrandin Podziemski 35.130th 9.327th 7.725th 5.430th 52.129th
SFWill Richard 25.913th 11.119th 6.925th 3.621st 43.919th
PFYaxel Lendeborg 21.022nd 9.819th 6.029th 2.929th 36.824th
CDraymond Green 16.811th 12.016th 2.55th 1.629th 31.311th

Softest spot: 35.1 points a game to shooting guards, the most in the league. Brandin Podziemski is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 2.5 assists a game to centers, 5th fewest in the league. Draymond Green is projected to start there.

Warriors defense facing the Heat

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGDavion Mitchell 34.623rd 7.319th 10.825th 3.919th 52.623rd
SGKlay Thompson 24.917th 7.921st 5.616th 3.512th 38.419th
SFAndrew Wiggins 26.414th 10.012th 4.610th 3.111th 41.013th
PFGiannis Antetokounmpo 18.013th 7.911th 3.615th 2.018th 29.413th
CBam Adebayo 13.02nd 9.33rd 3.111th 0.41st 25.42nd

Softest spot: 10.8 assists a game to point guards, 6th most in the league. Davion Mitchell is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 0.4 threes a game to centers, the fewest in the league. Bam Adebayo is projected to start there.

The props these matchups touchEvery NBA line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Miami Heat

Giannis Antetokounmpo PF28.3 PTS · 12.5 REB · 5.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ LAC 40 27 14 6 0
11/2 @ LAL 34 30 12 7 0
10/30 vs IND 31 31 18 10 1
10/28 @ ATL 30 24 18 3 0
10/26 vs DAL 38 29 14 11 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 28.3 (8) 23.8 (4) 27.6 (36) 34.0 (1)
34
REB 12.5 (8) 12.5 (4) 9.8 (36) 10.0 (1)
10
AST 5.8 (8) 4.8 (4) 5.4 (36) 5.0 (1)
5

Bam Adebayo C18.6 PTS · 8.3 REB · 3.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ LAC 40 35 10 4 1
11/2 @ LAL 30 16 9 4 1
10/30 vs IND 33 27 9 3 0
10/28 @ ATL 32 24 9 3 0
10/26 vs DAL 30 8 8 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 18.6 (8) 23.8 (4) 19.9 (74) 12.0 (2)
4 · 20
REB 8.3 (8) 9.0 (4) 9.9 (74) 9.5 (2)
12 · 7
AST 3.5 (8) 3.8 (4) 3.1 (74) 3.0 (2)
3 · 3

Davion Mitchell PG15.4 PTS · 1.5 REB · 8.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ LAC 43 11 2 10 0
11/2 @ LAL 29 15 0 7 4
10/30 vs IND 34 15 6 11 3
10/28 @ ATL 34 10 1 10 0
10/26 vs DAL 33 21 0 2 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 15.4 (8) 14.5 (4) 9.6 (71) 6.0 (2)
7 · 5
REB 1.5 (8) 1.0 (4) 2.7 (71) 3.5 (2)
6 · 1
AST 8.3 (8) 9.3 (4) 6.5 (71) 4.5 (2)
3 · 6

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry PG30.0 PTS · 4.2 REB · 4.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/2 vs PHX 32 34 6 7 5
10/30 vs LAL 30 31 4 6 8
10/28 @ MIN 31 44 8 6 6
10/26 @ DEN 26 24 3 3 3
10/23 vs MEM 29 24 2 4 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 30.0 (6) 29.7 (3) 26.5 (45) 19.0 (1)
19
REB 4.2 (6) 4.0 (3) 3.5 (45) 3.0 (1)
3
AST 4.5 (6) 5.7 (3) 4.7 (45) 11.0 (1)
11

Yaxel Lendeborg SF21.5 PTS · 7.0 REB · 3.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/2 vs PHX 29 16 5 5 2
11/1 vs LAC 33 37 4 6 6
10/30 vs LAL 24 6 1 0 1
10/28 @ MIN 34 26 9 1 2
10/26 @ DEN 30 31 12 6 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 21.5 (8) 19.3 (4) – –
REB 7.0 (8) 5.8 (4) – –
AST 3.9 (8) 4.3 (4) – –

Brandin Podziemski SG17.0 PTS · 5.0 REB · 5.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/2 vs PHX 32 20 3 2 3
11/1 vs LAC 37 17 8 8 2
10/30 vs LAL 33 21 5 6 4
10/28 @ MIN 31 8 5 6 0
10/26 @ DEN 32 18 7 5 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 17.0 (6) 19.0 (4) 14.0 (84) 22.0 (2)
24 · 20
REB 5.0 (6) 4.5 (4) 5.2 (84) 7.0 (2)
6 · 8
AST 5.0 (6) 4.8 (4) 3.6 (84) 3.0 (2)
4 · 2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Heat 3-5 2-6 4-4 1-3 2-2
Warriors 5-3 6-2 5-3 3-1 2-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Heat vs Warriors head-to-head

Heat are 4-2, 0-1 ATS, O/U 1-0 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Heat lost 112-135 on January 19, 2026.

Date Venue Heat result ATS O/U
Jan 19, 26 Warriors home L 112-135 L +5.5 O 239.5
Nov 19, 25 Heat home W 110-96 – –
Mar 25, 25 Heat home W 112-86 – –
Jan 7, 25 Warriors home W 114-98 – –
Mar 26, 24 Heat home L 92-113 – –
Dec 28, 23 Warriors home W 114-102 – –

Recent form

Miami Heat: last 10 (5-5, 4-6 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ LAC W 117-116 L -6.5 U 233.5
Nov 2, 26 @ LAL L 117-138 L +1.5 O 237.5
Oct 30, 26 vs IND W 145-125 W -8.5 O 236.5
Oct 28, 26 @ ATL W 129-117 W +2.5 O 243.5
Oct 26, 26 vs DAL L 109-113 L -7.5 U 240.5
Oct 24, 26 @ CHA L 110-115 L -4.5 U 227.5
Oct 23, 26 vs DET L 111-128 L +2.5 O 235.5
Oct 21, 26 vs MIN L 106-131 L -1.5 U 240.5
Apr 12, 26 vs ATL W 143-117 W -10.5 O 239.5
Apr 10, 26 @ WSH W 140-117 W -15.5 O 243.5

Golden State Warriors: last 10 (5-5, 6-4 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 2, 26 vs PHX W 116-113 W -2.5 O 227.5
Nov 1, 26 vs LAC W 124-112 W -1.5 O 220.5
Oct 30, 26 vs LAL W 112-95 W +2.5 U 234.5
Oct 28, 26 @ MIN W 119-114 W +3.5 O 227.5
Oct 26, 26 @ DEN W 134-114 W +6.5 O 236.5
Oct 24, 26 @ PHX L 122-131 W +9.5 O 221.5
Oct 23, 26 vs MEM L 108-111 L -4.5 U 236.5
Oct 21, 26 @ LAL L 105-127 L +6.5 U 233.5
Apr 12, 26 @ LAC L 110-115 L +3.5 U 229.5
Apr 10, 26 @ SAC L 118-124 L -10.5 O 228.5

Injury report

Miami Heat: none listed.

Golden State Warriors

  • Kristaps Porzingis (C): Out, Not With Team
  • Jimmy Butler (SF): Out, Right ACL Repair / Surgery
  • Moses Moody (SG): Out, Left Patellar Tendon Repair / Surgery
  • Gui Santos (SF): Out, Left Knee Tendinitis

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Heat defense Warriors defense
Points allowed per game 122.9 (27th of 30) 114.6 (19th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 45.9 (23rd of 30) 41.3 (5th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 29.9 (30th of 30) 27.3 (23rd of 30)
Threes allowed per game 17.1 (30th of 30) 12.6 (14th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 105 (2nd) 100.8 (20th)

Venue and weather

Chase Center · San Francisco, CAIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Heat vs Warriors odds by sportsbook

Book MIA spread GS spread MIA ML GS ML Over Under
bet365 +7.5 -110 -7.5 -110 +235 -290 O 235.5 -110 U 235.5 -110
BetRivers +7.5 -108 -7.5 -112 +240 -303 O 234.5 -112 U 234.5 -108
Caesars +7 -110 -7 -110 +222 -278 O 235 -110 U 235 -110
DraftKings +7.5 -114 -7.5 -106 +230 -281 O 235.5 -110 U 235.5 -110
FanDuel +7.5 -110 -7.5 -110 +235 -290 O 235.5 -105 U 235.5 -115
Fanatics +7.5 -115 -7.5 -105 +225 -280 O 235 -110 U 235 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 7:22 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Warriors spread -4.5 -7.5 -3
Total 238.5 235.5 -3
Heat moneyline +138 +230 -11.7% win chance
Warriors moneyline -164 -281 +11.6% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Warriors spread -6.5 → -7.5
Total 237.5 → 235.5
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More on these teams: Miami Heat vs LA Clippers Nov 4 · Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Nov 2 · All NBA prop picks

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Today's NBA picks

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10/10
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9/10
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