How the bets settled
Match report
Newcastle United lost 0-1 to Everton, with T. Barry scoring the only goal in the 49th minute. Newcastle also finished with a red card, so the match was settled by Barry’s finish and Newcastle’s failure to respond.
Everton edged the expected goals 2.16 to 1.48 and had five shots on target to Newcastle’s two. Newcastle had 17 shots to Everton’s 16 and 52% possession, while big chances were 3-2 to Everton. Newcastle’s pre-match form was WLLWL and Everton’s was LLDWD. Newcastle had both teams scoring in 63% and over 2.5 goals in 63%, compared with Everton’s 38% and 25%, so the 0-1 result fitted Everton’s lower-scoring profile more than Newcastle’s. T. Barry’s goal was the decisive individual moment.
How the props finished
4 of 8 cleared
| Player | Line | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 saves | -150 |
4 Cleared | |
| Over 0.5 shots | -156 |
0 Missed | |
| Over 0.5 shots | -159 |
4 Cleared | |
| Over 0.5 fouls won | -162 |
3 Cleared | |
| Over 0.5 shots | +125 |
0 Missed | |
| Over 0.5 shots on target | -175 |
0 Missed | |
| Over 0.5 fouls | -185 |
0 Missed | |
| Over 1.5 fouls | -185 |
2 Cleared |
Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the match, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.
Goals
- 49′ T. Barry Everton
| Match stats | Newcastle United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 | 2.34 |
| Ball possession | 52% | 48% |
| Total shots | 17 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 5 |
| Big chances | 2 | 4 |
| Corner kicks | 4 | 5 |
| Passes | 80% (342/428) | 80% (315/396) |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 2 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
How the key matchups went
- Elanga: 2 shots, 0 shots on target, 1 foul won. Mykolenko: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
- Barnes: 1 shot, 0 shots on target, 0 fouls won. O’Brien: 1 foul committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards.
- Osula: 1 shot, 0 shots on target, 1 foul won. Tarkowski: 1 foul committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards. Branthwaite: 1 foul committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
- Rohl: 1 shot, 0 shots on target, 1 foul won. Hall: 1 foul committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards.
- George: 2 shots, 1 shot on target, 0 fouls won. Dedic: 1 foul committed, 2 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
- Barry: 3 shots, 1 shot on target, 3 fouls won. Schar: 1 foul committed, 0 tackles, 1 yellow card. Burn: 2 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 1 yellow card.
Box score
Newcastle
| Player | MIN | G | A | SH | SOT | xG | KP | PAS | TKL | FC | FS | YC | SV | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 49/60 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.2 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 35/44 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 30/40 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 21/26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | |
| 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 1 | 41/45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1 | 3/5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | |
| 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 2 | 18/22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | |
| 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 2 | 26/33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 16/33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7.0 | |
| 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 35/39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 | |
| 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 12/19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | |
| Steur S. | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 34/35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Wissa Y. | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 8/12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Murphy J. | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 4/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Ramsey J. | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 8/8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Toure B. | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 2/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
Everton
| Player | MIN | G | A | SH | SOT | xG | KP | PAS | TKL | FC | FS | YC | SV | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 25/36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | |
| 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 1 | 36/45 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.5 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 29/34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.8 | |
| 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.29 | 2 | 7/8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.1 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 2 | 26/31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 | |
| 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 27/31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.8 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 20/40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7.5 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 3 | 43/51 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.4 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 29/36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 24/28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 40/45 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | |
| Hackney H. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3/3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Keane M. | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 4/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Johnson B. | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2/3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | – |
Recap: Barry leads Everton to second win over Newcastle in four days (ESPN)
StatsBench picks
No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.
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Newcastle United vs Everton pre-game preview
Newcastle United hosts Everton on Monday in the Premier League. Newcastle United is the home favorite on the three-way moneyline at +124, with the draw at +260 and Everton at +250, while the total is 2.5.
The last meeting went Everton’s way, 3-2 at Newcastle on Feb. 28, 2026. Recent league form has Newcastle at WLLWL and Everton at LLDWD. Newcastle sits 12th with 11 points from eight matches, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.75 per match; Everton is 14th with 10 points, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.13.
Newcastle’s confirmed XI lists Fernandez-Pardo, Jaouen, Livramento and Miley as missing. One prop angle is Hornicek over 2.5 saves at -150, cleared in 6 of his last 8. Another is Dewsbury-Hall over 1.5 fouls won at +100, cleared in 7 of his last 10. Newcastle’s matches have gone over 2.5 in 63%, while Everton’s have in 25%, a contrast that frames the total.
Confirmed lineups
The official starting XIs. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Everton 4-2-3-1
21 Hornicek
37 Dedic
5 Schar
33 Burn (C)
3 Hall
7 Joelinton
6 Nico
19 Elanga
28 Willock
11 Barnes
10 Osula
1 Pickford
15 O’Brien
6 Tarkowski (C)
4 Branthwaite
16 Mykolenko
45 Armstrong
37 Garner
34 Rohl
8 Dewsbury-Hall
19 George
11 BarryNewcastle United missing: M. Fernandez-Pardo (illness), E. Jaouen (muscle), V. Livramento (knee), L. Miley (muscle)
Everton missing: J. Grealish (coach’s decision)
Form and head to head
Newcastle United12th in the tableWLLWL3W 2D 3L · 1.38 points a match
Everton14th in the tableLLDWD2W 4D 2L · 1.25 points a match- Feb 2026NEW 2-3 EVE
- Nov 2025EVE 1-4 NEW
- May 2025NEW 0-1 EVE
- Oct 2024EVE 0-0 NEW
- Apr 2024NEW 1-1 EVE
- Dec 2023EVE 3-0 NEW
Clean sheets and goal trends
Newcastle United
Clean sheet2/8
Failed to score1/8
Both scored5/8
Over 2.55/8
Everton
Clean sheet3/8
Failed to score3/8
Both scored3/8
Over 2.52/8
Attack and defense
Attacking
- 1.5Scored per match1.0
- 10.3Shots per match10.1
- 3.4Shots on target per match4.8
- 1.4Big chances per match2.6
Defensive
- 1.8Conceded per match1.1
- 11.5Shots against per match11.0
- 13.3Tackles per match16.1
- 11.9Fouls per match8.1
Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.
Recent results
| Newcastle United | WLLWL | W 2-0 at CRY · L 0-1 vs AVL · L 1-4 at Coventry · W 2-1 vs Hull City · L 1-4 at LEE |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | LLDWD | L 0-2 at ARS · L 0-2 vs CHE · D 2-2 at Hull City · W 1-0 vs IPS · D 0-0 at TOT |
Last five Premier League results, most recent first.
Season numbers
| Newcastle United | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| Table | 12 (11 pts) | 14 (10 pts) |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-3 | 2-4-2 |
| Home / away record | 1-2-1 (6-6) home | 0-3-1 (3-5) away |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 1.13 |
| Shots / on target per match | 10.25 / 3.38 | 10.13 / 4.75 |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% |
| Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals | 88% / 63% / 50% | 75% / 25% / 25% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% |
| Yellow cards per match | 2.75 | 1.88 |
| Corners per match | 4.81 | 4.79 |
This season, 8 and 8 matches.
Referee
John Brooks averages 4.6 yellow cards and 19.9 fouls per match over 9 matches this season (league average 4.0 and 23.3), a card-heavy referee.
Injury report
Newcastle United
- Ewen Jaouen (G): Out, Hamstring Injury
- Tino Livramento (D): Out, Knock Injury
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo (F): Day-To-Day, Illness
- Lewis Miley (M): Day-To-Day, Knock Injury
Everton: none listed.
Line movement chart
More on these teams: All Premier League prop picks
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