Baylor vs UCF Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 30, 2026)

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College Football prop picks: today's featured picks
Baylor Bears logo
Baylor4-3 · 5-2 ATS
FINAL41 – 9
UCF Knights logo
UCF4-3 · 5-2 ATS

College Football · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Acrisure Bounce House

Final score by quarter

Team1234T
Baylor71314741
UCF06309

How the bets settled

MoneylineBaylor wonClosed at -135
SpreadBaylor coveredBaylor -2.5, by 29.5
TotalOver 49.550 scored, 0.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Baylor beat UCF 41-9, pulling away in the second and third quarters after leading 7-0 through one. The Bears turned that into a 20-6 halftime edge and then a 34-9 cushion through three, with the fourth quarter adding only the final margin.

DJ Lagway drove Baylor with 319 passing yards and four touchdowns, Gavin Freeman caught five passes for 114 yards and a score, and Ryelan Morris added 82 rushing yards. Baylor outgained UCF 503 to 281, ran for 184 yards at 4.4 per carry against 66 at 2.2, and converted 7 of 16 third downs while UCF managed 2 of 15. Baylor also won the turnover battle 2-0.

For bettors, Baylor covered the closing 2.5-point spread by 29.5, and the game went over the 49.5 total by 0.5. StatsBench’s posted picks both won: Caden Knighten over 6.5 rush attempts (7) and Waden Charles over 34.5 receiving yards (45).

How our picks did

  • Caden Knighten OVER 6.5 RUSH ATT (-133): WON (7)
  • Waden Charles OVER 34.5 REC YDS (-110): WON (45)

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

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Against the spread, start to finish

UCFBaylor
The score margin against the closing spread (UCF +2.5). Blue: UCF covering. Orange: Baylor covering.
+29.5Largest BAY cover
82%BAY covering
+2.5Largest UCF cover
18%UCF covering

Win probability

UCFBaylor
Blue: UCF favored. Orange: Baylor favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Baylor

  • Passing YardsDJ Lagway16/25, 319 YDS, 4 TD
  • Rushing YardsRyelan Morris11 CAR, 82 YDS
  • Receiving YardsGavin Freeman5 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
  • SacksJamaal Whyce Jr.1.5
  • TacklesMicah Gifford6

UCF

  • Passing YardsAlonza Barnett III8/16, 133 YDS
  • Rushing YardsRocco Marriott2 CAR, 50 YDS
  • Receiving YardsJosh Derry3 REC, 70 YDS
  • SacksTackett Curtis1
  • TacklesTy Bartrum9

Team stats

BaylorUCF
503Total yards281
319Passing yards215
184Rushing yards66
19First downs14
7-16Third downs2-15
0Turnovers2
12-85Penalties6-41
29:08Possession30:52

Box score

Baylor BearsUCF Knights

Baylor Bears

Passing

PlayerC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
DJ Lagway16/2531912.84077.4
Total16/2531912.840—

Rushing

PlayerCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Ryelan Morris11827.5026
Michael Turner12413.4010
Caden Knighten7314.4115
DJ Lagway11232.1010
Dawson Pendergrass177.007
Total421844.4126

Receiving

PlayerRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Gavin Freeman511422.8177
Jadon Porter27437.0053
Dre’lon Miller24422.0036
Jayden McGowan12929.0029
Tony Livingston22512.5221
DeBraun Hampton11414.0014
Taz Williams Jr.2147.0010
Matthew Klopfenstein155.015
Total1631919.9477

Defense

PlayerTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Micah Gifford6500000
Travion Barnes6401000
LeVar Thornton Jr.5300200
Kedrick Walker4200010
Daniel Cobbs400.51000
Devin Turner3311100
Hosea Wheeler3300000
Kaleb Burns321.51.5000
Zavion Hardy3200.5000
Ryan Davis310.51.5010
Bo Onu300.51000
Traevon Mitchell2211000
Devon Jordan2200000
Jordan Davis2200000
Stilton McKelvey2200100
Jamaal Whyce Jr.211.51.5000
Tyler Turner2100000
Garrick Ponder2101.5000
Reggie Bush II1100000
Jae’Lin Battle1100100
Kaleb Arterberry1100000
Colby McCalister1000000
Trent Thomas1000000
Jordan Mack100.50.5000
Anthony Crenshaw Jr.0000100
Total6339712620

UCF Knights

Passing

PlayerC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Alonza Barnett III8/161338.3007.7
Keyone Jenkins14/21823.90113.4
Total22/372155.801—

Rushing

PlayerCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Rocco Marriott25025.0056
Landen Chambers7243.408
Duke Watson7202.906
Josh Derry188.008
Duane Thomas Jr.122.002
Agyeman Addae200.000
Keyone Jenkins4-15-3.800
Alonza Barnett III6-23-3.800
Total30662.2056

Receiving

PlayerRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Josh Derry37023.3067
Waden Charles5459.0025
Tyren Hornes6345.7015
Duane Thomas Jr.4287.009
Caden Piening22412.0019
Dylan Wade11111.0011
Duke Watson133.003
Total222159.8067

Defense

PlayerTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Jahleel Culbreath9811010
Ty Bartrum9500000
Horace Lockett8311010
Antione Jackson6500000
Tackett Curtis6311010
Cole Kozlowski5200000
Kahmel Johnson4200100
Jayden Jennings4100.5000
Jeffson Lafontant4100.5010
Jayden Williams3100000
Caleb Flagg3100000
Isaiah Nixon2200000
Jayden Bellamy2100100
Braeden Marshall2100000
Jailen Duffie1100100
Thomas Collins1100000
Trenton Turner1100000
Preston Cushman1000000
Ken Talley1000000
Caden Piening1000000
Matt Irwin1000000
Matthew Occhipinti1000000
Total753934340

Attendance 45,906

Recap: Lagway throws for 4 TDs as Baylor wins Klanderman’s first game as interim coach, beating UCF 41-9 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

Betting trends

  • Baylor are 3-0 ATS as underdogs in their last 10 games.
  • The over is 2-6 in Baylor’ last 8 games.
  • UCF are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Baylor vs UCF pre-game preview

The Friday night matchup at UCF has Baylor as a short favorite, with UCF +1.5 and the total at 47.5. Baylor is -110 on the moneyline and UCF is +110; the opener was UCF -1.5 with a 49.5 total, and it now sits at UCF +1.5 and 47.5.

Baylor won the last meeting 30-3 at home on November 1, 2025, and has taken the last two head-to-head meetings. Baylor is 4-3 and 5-2 against the spread, most recently losing 24-25 at Kansas, while UCF is 4-3 and 5-2 against the spread after a 39-31 win over BYU. Baylor’s last 10 is 4-6 straight up and 5-3 against the spread; UCF’s is 5-5 straight up and 5-2 against the spread.

The most useful angle is defense: Baylor allows 16.1 points per game (18th) and 105.9 rushing yards (23rd), while UCF allows 23 points (58th) and 118.3 rushing yards (38th). Both pass defenses rank near the bottom, Baylor 104th at 236 yards and UCF 100th at 232.7. On props, DJ Lagway over 0.5 interceptions is -185 and has cleared in 7 of last 10.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Baylor Bears

Sawyer Robertson QB306.7 pass yds · 2.6 TD per game
SplitsSeasonRoad2025vs UCF
Pass yds––306.8 (12)267.0 (1)
267
Pass TD––2.6 (12)3.0 (1)
3
Dawson Pendergrass RB47.4 rush yds · 1.5 rec per game
DateOppATTYDSTDRECREC YDS
10/24@ KU441––
10/17vs TCU911011
10/4@ ASU8290––
9/26vs COLO16850––
9/19vs LT164611-1
SplitsSeasonRoad2025vs UCF
Rush yds47.4 (7)40.3 (3)––
Rec1.5 (4)2.0 (1)––
Gavin Freeman WR7.5 rec · 81.1 yds per game
DateOppTGTRECYDSTD
10/24@ KU–91230
10/17vs TCU–7760
10/4@ ASU–71150
9/26vs COLO–6591
9/19vs LT–7470
SplitsSeasonRoad2025vs UCF
Rec8.3 (7)9.3 (3)4.4 (12)5.0 (1)
5
Rec yds96.9 (7)130.7 (3)40.1 (12)40.0 (1)
40
Josh Cameron WR5.7 rec · 72.7 yds per game
SplitsSeasonRoad2025vs UCF
Rec––5.8 (12)3.0 (1)
3
Rec yds––72.7 (12)5.0 (1)
5

UCF Knights

Alonza Barnett III QB200.6 pass yds · 1.6 TD per game
DateOppCMP/ATTYDSTDINTRUSH
9/12@ PITT20/311861013
9/3vs BCU11/18158119
SplitsSeasonHome2025vs BAY
Pass yds172.0 (2)158.0 (1)194.8 (13)–
Pass TD1.0 (2)1.0 (1)1.6 (13)–
Duke Watson RB64.5 rush yds · 1.3 rec per game
DateOppATTYDSTDRECREC YDS
10/24vs BYU1594015
10/10@ OKST21790––
10/3@ HOU95001-1
9/26vs TCU1357012
9/19vs GAST1417721-1
SplitsSeasonHome2025vs BAY
Rush yds82.4 (7)109.5 (4)22.6 (7)–
Rec1.4 (5)1.0 (3)1.2 (5)–
Josh Derry WR4.9 rec · 53.2 yds per game
DateOppTGTRECYDSTD
10/24vs BYU–5290
10/10@ OKST–11841
10/3@ HOU–71011
9/26vs TCU–3410
9/19vs GAST–2240
SplitsSeasonHome2025vs BAY
Rec4.7 (7)3.3 (4)7.0 (1)–
Rec yds47.6 (7)34.8 (4)110.0 (1)–
Tyren Hornes WR2.7 rec · 41.3 yds per game
DateOppTGTRECYDSTD
10/24vs BYU–61370
10/10@ OKST–3251
10/3@ HOU–4340
9/26vs TCU–1160
9/12@ PITT–1210
SplitsSeasonHome2025vs BAY
Rec2.7 (6)2.7 (3)––
Rec yds41.3 (6)56.0 (3)––

Records

TeamRecordATSO/UHomeAway
Baylor4-35-22-53-11-2
UCF4-35-24-34-00-3

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Baylor vs UCF head-to-head

Baylor are 2-0 in the last 2 meetings. Last time: Baylor won 30-3 on November 1, 2025.

DateVenueBaylor resultATSO/U
Nov 1, 25Baylor homeW 30-3––
Sep 30, 23UCF homeW 36-35––

Recent form

Baylor Bears: last 10 (4-6, 5-3 ATS, O/U 2-6)

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
Oct 24, 26@ KUL 24-25W +1.5U 54.5
Oct 17, 26vs TCUL 6-17L -3.5U 50.5
Oct 3, 26@ ASUW 55-19W +3.5O 49.5
Sep 26, 26vs COLOW 23-13W -8.5U 54.5
Sep 19, 26vs LTW 36-19L -20.5O 50.5
Sep 12, 26vs PVW 44-3W -37.5U 55.5
Sep 5, 26@ AUBL 16-17W +6.5U 58.5
Nov 29, 25vs HOUL 24-31L -2.5U 57.5
Nov 22, 25@ ARIZL 17-41––
Nov 15, 25vs UTAHL 28-55––

UCF Knights: last 10 (5-5, 5-2 ATS, O/U 5-3)

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
Oct 24, 26vs BYUW 39-31W +7.5O 43.5
Oct 10, 26@ OKSTL 28-42L +10.5O 53.5
Oct 3, 26@ HOUL 17-27W +10.5U 50.5
Sep 26, 26vs TCUW 21-13W +3.5U 48.5
Sep 19, 26vs GASTW 44-30L -17.5O 50.5
Sep 12, 26@ PITTL 7-12W +7.5U 55.5
Sep 3, 26vs BCUW 73-6W -43.5O 58.5
Nov 29, 25@ BYUL 21-41–O 46.5
Nov 22, 25vs OKSTW 17-14––
Nov 15, 25@ TTUL 9-48––

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 1:02 PM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Baylor defenseUCF defense
Points allowed per game15.3 (11th of 136)25.3 (77th of 136)
Passing yards allowed per game233.4 (96th of 136)243.5 (110th of 136)
Rushing yards allowed per game101.6 (21st of 136)126.5 (44th of 136)
Total yards allowed per game335 (47th of 136)370 (77th of 136)

Venue and weather

Acrisure Bounce House · Orlando, FLOutdoor
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Baylor vs UCF odds

Line movement from the open

LineOpenCloseMove
UCF spread-1.5+2.5+4
Total49.549.5–
Baylor moneyline+110-135+9.8% win chance
UCF moneyline-130+114-9.8% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

UCF spread +1.5 → +2.5
Total 47.5 → 49.5
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More on these teams: Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks Oct 24 · All College Football prop picks

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