Red Wings vs Lightning Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 3, 2026)

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NHL prop picks: today's featured picks
Detroit Red Wings logo

Red Wings7-8 · 7-8 ATS11th in the East
FINAL2 – 4
Tampa Bay Lightning logo

Lightning8-5 · 7-6 ATS4th in the East

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Benchmark International Arena

Final score by period

Team 1 2 3 T
Red Wings 0 1 1 2
Lightning 2 1 1 4

How the bets settled

MoneylineLightning wonClosed at -290
SpreadLightning coveredLightning -1.5, by 0.5
TotalUnder 6.56 scored, 0.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Tampa Bay beat Detroit 4-2 on Nov. 3, with the game decided in the first period. The Lightning scored twice in the opening frame and never surrendered the lead, while Detroit could not close the gap after matching Tampa Bay the rest of the way.

Brayden Point led Tampa Bay with two goals and two points, and Nikita Kucherov added two assists. J.T. Compher led Detroit with a goal, an assist and two points. Tampa Bay’s power play converted at 33.3 percent, and its edge in shots helped protect the lead. Detroit blocked more shots and landed more hits, but Tampa Bay’s five takeaways and narrow faceoff edge helped limit sustained pressure.

For bettors, Lightning -1.5 covered by half a goal, and the closing total of 6.5 finished under by half a goal.

How the props finished

6 of 12 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Emmitt Finnie Over 0.5 points +133 Kalshi 0 Missed
Andreas Englund Over 2.5 hits -130 Stake 8 Cleared
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Over 3.5 hits -135 Stake 1 Missed
Moritz Seider Over 1.5 shots on goal -150 ESPN BET 1 Missed
Jake Guentzel Over 0.5 points -194 Kalshi 0 Missed
Keegan Kolesar Over 1.5 hits -270 Stake 3 Cleared
Max Crozier Over 1.5 shots on goal +120 ESPN BET 2 Cleared
Alex DeBrincat Over 0.5 points -138 Kalshi 0 Missed
Brayden Point Over 0.5 points -163 Kalshi 2 Cleared
Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 points -186 Kalshi 0 Missed
Jeffrey Viel Over 1.5 hits -201 Stake 5 Cleared
Charle-Edouard D’Astous Over 1.5 shots on goal +109 prophetexchange 2 Cleared

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

LightningRed Wings
The score margin against the closing spread (Lightning -1.5). Blue: Lightning covering. Orange: Red Wings covering.
+1.5Largest DET cover
46%DET covering
+1.5Largest TB cover
54%TB covering

Top performers

Red Wings

  • GoalsJ.T. Compher1
  • AssistsJ.T. Compher1
  • PointsJ.T. Compher2

Lightning

  • GoalsBrayden Point2
  • AssistsNikita Kucherov2
  • PointsBrayden Point2

Team stats

Red WingsLightning
21Shots27
49.1%Faceoffs won50.9%
1Power play goals1
37Hits21
23Blocked shots11
3Takeaways5
15Giveaways15
6Penalty minutes8

Box score

Detroit Red WingsTampa Bay Lightning

Detroit Red Wings

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Viktor Arvidsson LW 0 0 0 1 -1 20:36 20 1 0 0 0 0 0.0
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard RW 0 0 0 0 0 13:58 22 1 0 0 0 2 0.0
J.T. Compher LW 1 1 0 2 0 16:06 24 0 0 0 3 0 52.6
Andrew Copp C 0 1 0 1 -1 19:13 25 2 2 1 0 0 30.0
Alex DeBrincat RW 0 0 0 4 -2 22:55 21 2 1 0 1 0 0.0
Sheldon Dries C 0 0 0 0 0 10:22 15 2 2 0 0 0 55.6
Emmitt Finnie C 0 0 0 0 -1 19:36 22 1 1 0 0 0 57.1
Keegan Kolesar RW 0 0 0 0 0 10:34 15 3 0 0 0 0 0.0
John Leonard LW 0 0 0 2 0 11:03 18 3 1 0 0 0 0.0
Carter Mazur LW 0 0 0 0 -1 8:29 13 2 0 0 0 0 0.0
Michael Rasmussen C 0 0 0 2 0 15:08 22 3 3 0 0 0 0.0
Lucas Raymond LW 1 0 0 5 -1 19:32 22 0 0 1 0 0 0.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Ben Chiarot D 0 0 0 1 0 20:30 25 1 0 0 1 2 0.0
Andreas Englund D 0 0 0 0 0 13:51 16 8 0 1 1 0 0.0
Justin Faulk D 0 1 0 1 -2 19:52 28 2 2 0 0 0 0.0
Anton Johansson D 0 0 0 1 0 10:09 14 2 1 0 1 0 0.0
Moritz Seider D 0 0 0 1 -1 30:11 30 4 7 0 6 2 0.0
William Wallinder D 0 0 0 0 -1 15:55 18 0 3 0 2 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Daniil Tarasov G 1 13 0 0 12 .923 10 1 1 36:59 0 0
John Gibson G 2 13 0 0 11 .846 9 2 0 20:00 0 0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Anthony Cirelli C 1 0 0 5 2 18:39 25 0 0 0 0 0 66.7
Conor Geekie C 0 0 0 1 0 11:54 14 5 0 0 0 0 37.5
Gage Goncalves C 0 1 0 0 1 16:44 21 1 1 1 0 0 0.0
Jake Guentzel C 0 0 0 0 1 19:30 21 0 1 0 0 0 14.3
Brandon Hagel LW 0 0 0 1 1 22:05 22 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Pontus Holmberg RW 0 0 0 1 0 12:05 23 2 0 1 0 2 100.0
Dominic James C 0 0 0 1 -1 10:34 19 1 0 0 4 0 55.6
Nikita Kucherov RW 0 2 0 3 1 21:40 20 0 0 0 2 0 0.0
Ilya Mikheyev RW 0 0 0 3 0 13:40 24 0 0 1 0 0 0.0
Brayden Point C 2 0 0 4 1 18:23 19 0 0 0 1 0 42.9
Jeffrey Viel LW 0 0 0 1 0 10:58 14 5 0 0 0 2 0.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
John Carlson D 0 0 0 1 0 16:29 19 1 0 0 0 0 0.0
Erik Cernak D 0 1 0 0 2 18:49 27 1 4 0 0 2 0.0
Max Crozier D 0 0 0 2 0 16:26 22 0 2 0 1 2 0.0
Charle-Edouard D’Astous D 0 1 0 2 0 18:14 20 2 0 1 3 0 0.0
Victor Hedman D 0 0 0 1 0 13:56 16 0 1 0 2 0 0.0
Ryan McDonagh D 1 0 0 1 2 18:03 21 0 2 1 2 0 0.0
JJ Moser D 0 1 0 0 0 13:58 19 3 0 0 0 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Andrei Vasilevskiy G 2 21 0 0 19 .905 15 4 0 60:00 0 0

Attendance 19,092 · Officials: Travis Gawryletz, Matt MacPherson, Trevor Hanson, Corey Syvret

Recap: Brayden Point scores 2 goals to lift the Lightning to a 4-2 victory over the Red Wings (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • The over is 7-3 in Red Wings’ last 10 games.
  • The over has hit in 5 straight Lightning games.
  • The over is 7-3 in Lightning’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

Trade Red Wings vs Lightning on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the game and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

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Red Wings vs Lightning pre-game preview

Tampa Bay is the moneyline favorite at -263 against Detroit +230, with the Lightning laying 1.5 goals and the total at 6.5, unchanged from the DraftKings opener.

The last meeting on April 13, 2026 ended 4-3 Tampa Bay, with Detroit losing on the road. Detroit is 6-8 straight up and 6-8 against the spread this season, and 5-5 with a 4-6 ATS mark over its last 10 after a 4-5 loss to St. Louis on October 31. Tampa Bay is 8-5 and 7-6 ATS, and 6-4 with a 5-5 ATS record over its last 10 after a 4-5 loss at Nashville on October 31. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Detroit is 5-5 straight up and 2-2 ATS.

The defensive ranks offer a split: Detroit allows fewer goals (2.93, ninth) and shots (24.43, fifth) than Tampa Bay (3.15, 16th; 24.85, seventh), but Detroit is 27th in power-play points allowed at 2.86 while Tampa Bay is 13th at 1.85. Among props, Jake Guentzel over 0.5 points is -280 after clearing in 8 of 10, with the StatsBench model projecting 1.0 point.

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Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Red Wings 7-8 7-8 9-6 4-5 3-3
Lightning 8-5 7-6 8-5 6-0 2-5

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Red Wings vs Lightning head-to-head

Red Wings are 5-5, 2-2 ATS, O/U 2-2 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Red Wings lost 3-4 on April 13, 2026.

Date Venue Red Wings result ATS O/U
Apr 13, 26 Lightning home L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Mar 12, 26 Lightning home L 1-4 L +1.5 U 6.5
Nov 28, 25 Red Wings home L 3-6 – –
Oct 17, 25 Red Wings home W 2-1 – –
Apr 11, 25 Lightning home W 4-3 – –
Feb 8, 25 Red Wings home L 3-6 – –
Jan 25, 25 Red Wings home W 2-0 – –
Jan 18, 25 Lightning home L 1-5 – –
Apr 1, 24 Lightning home W 4-2 W +1.5 O 5.5
Jan 21, 24 Red Wings home W 2-1 L -1.5 U 5.5

Recent form

Detroit Red Wings: last 10 (6-4, 4-6 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 2, 26 @ FLA W 5-3 W +1.5 O 5.5
Oct 31, 26 vs STL L 4-5 L -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 29, 26 vs CHI W 4-1 W -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 26, 26 @ EDM W 4-3 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 24, 26 @ CGY L 1-4 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 22, 26 @ VAN W 5-2 W -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ SEA L 3-4 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs SJ W 4-3 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 15, 26 vs PHI W 2-1 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 13, 26 vs NJ L 4-5 L -1.5 O 6.5

Tampa Bay Lightning: last 10 (6-4, 5-5 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 31, 26 @ NSH L 4-5 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 29, 26 vs WPG W 6-4 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 24, 26 @ UTA L 4-5 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 23, 26 @ COL L 3-6 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ VGK W 6-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs VAN W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 15, 26 vs SEA W 4-3 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 13, 26 @ NYR L 1-4 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 10, 26 @ NYI W 5-3 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 8, 26 vs MIN W 3-2 L -1.5 U 6.5

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 1:01 AM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Red Wings defense Lightning defense
Goals allowed per game 2.93 (9th of 32) 3.15 (16th of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game 24.53 (5th of 32) 24.85 (7th of 32)
Points allowed per game 8.13 (12th of 32) 8.54 (16th of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game 2.67 (25th of 32) 1.85 (14th of 32)

Venue and weather

Benchmark International Arena · Tampa, FLIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Red Wings vs Lightning odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Lightning spread -1.5 -1.5 –
Total 6.5 6.5 –
Red Wings moneyline +225 +235 -0.9% win chance
Lightning moneyline -278 -290 +0.8% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Lightning spread -1.5 → -1.5
Total 6.5 → 6.5
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More on these teams: Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers Nov 2 · Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators Oct 31 · All NHL prop picks

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