Lens vs Marseille Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 8, 2026)

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Ligue 1 prop picks: today's featured picks
Lens logo

Lens9th in Ligue 1
2:45 PM ETSun, Nov 8
Marseille logo

Marseille6th in Ligue 1

Ligue 1 · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 2:45 PM ET

Result Moneyline
Lens +128
Draw +275
Marseille +210

Total goals 2.5: over -150 , under +128

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 10:50 AM ET.

Lens vs Marseille preview

Lens hosts Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET. The three-way moneyline lists Lens +130, Marseille +185 and the draw at +295, with a total of 3.5.

The last meeting went 3-1 to Marseille on January 24, 2026. Lens sits 9th with 13 points from 9 matches and form of LWWWL; Marseille is 6th with 15 points and form of WWWWL. Lens is 3-0-1 at home, while Marseille is 2-0-2 away. Lens has six players out, including Abdallah Sima and Odsonne Édouard; Marseille is missing Derek Cornelius and Emerson.

Lens matches have produced both teams scoring in 78% and over 2.5 goals in 78%, with zero clean sheets, while Marseille has kept clean sheets in 33%. Amine Gouiri’s over 0.5 score or assist is priced +120 and has cleared in 7 of his last 10; Florian Thauvin’s same prop is +110 and 7 of last 10.

Lens vs Marseille prediction

39%Lens
23%Draw
38%Marseille

The books imply 43% / 26% / 31%

1-1Most likely score10% chance
1.7 – 1.7Expected goals
65%Over 2.5 goals
66%Both teams to score

The model leans slightly to Lens at 39% over Marseille at 38%, while the books are firmer on Lens at 42% against 34%, so model and market disagree on margin. Lens have seen both teams score in 78% and over 2.5 goals in 78%, with a 3-0-1 home record, while Marseille score 2.22 per match and arrive on WWWWL form.

A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (9 and 9 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Lens vs Marseille player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Amine Gouiri Olympique Marseille Over 0.5 score or assist +135 DraftKings 70% (7/10) 80%
Florian Thauvin Lens Over 0.5 score or assist +125 DraftKings 70% (7/10) 80%
Ruben Aguilar Lens Over 1.5 tackles -195 DraftKings 70% (7/10) 80%
Ismaëlo Ganiou Lens Over 0.5 shots -200 bet365 70% (7/10) 60%
A. Harit Olympique Marseille Over 1.5 fouls won -150 DraftKings 66.7% (6/9) 60%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 10:50 AM ET.

The rest of the Lens vs Marseille propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Igor PaixãoOver 0.5 shots on target6/10
Timothy WeahOver 1.5 tackles6/10
Robin RisserOver 2.5 saves6/10

Key matchups

From the predicted lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.

Hazard vs Egan-Riley and Aguerd

HazardStriker, Lens
VS
Egan-RileyCentre-back, Marseille
AguerdCentre-back, Marseille
Tough matchup for HazardEgan-Riley and Aguerd give away 0.6 fouls a match, 31% less than the average defender (0.9). Hazard draws 0.7, which points to about 0.5 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.7Fouls drawn vs given0.6
1.0Shots vs tackles1.0
Fouls won over 0.54/7avg 0.7 · -300DraftKings
Shots over 2.50/7avg 1 · +163bet365
Shots on target over 0.53/7avg 0.4 · -137bet365
Fouls committed over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · -220DraftKings
Tackles over 1.52/10avg 1.3 · -105DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +380DraftKings
Fouls committed over 0.56/10avg 0.7 · -320DraftKings
Tackles over 1.52/10avg 0.7 · +100DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +400DraftKings

Weah vs Udol

WeahWinger, Marseille
VS
UdolFull-back, Lens
Even matchupUdol gives away 0.7 fouls a match, 19% less than the average defender (0.9). Weah only draws 0.6, which points to about 0.5 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.6Fouls drawn vs given0.7
1.4Shots vs tackles1.6
Fouls won over 0.54/10avg 0.6 · -235DraftKings
Shots over 1.54/10avg 1.4 · +270Fanatics
Shots on target over 0.53/10avg 0.3 · +250bet365
Fouls committed over 0.56/10avg 0.7 · -190DraftKings
Tackles over 1.55/10avg 1.6 · -165DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.50/10avg 0 · +750DraftKings

Paixao vs Abdulhamid

PaixaoWinger, Marseille
VS
AbdulhamidFull-back, Lens
Good matchup for PaixaoAbdulhamid gives away 1.2 fouls a match, 38% more than the average defender (0.9). Paixao draws plenty himself, at 1.4, which points to about 1.9 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
1.4Fouls drawn vs given1.2
2.3Shots vs tackles1.3
Fouls won over 0.57/10avg 1.4 · -350DraftKings
Shots over 1.56/10avg 2.3 · -162bet365
Shots on target over 0.56/10avg 0.9 · -125bet365
Fouls committed over 1.54/10avg 1.2 · +120DraftKings
Tackles over 1.53/10avg 1.3 · -180DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.53/10avg 0.3 · +450DraftKings

Gouiri vs Aguilar and Baidoo and Todibo

GouiriStriker, Marseille
VS
AguilarCentre-back, Lens
BaidooCentre-back, Lens
TodiboCentre-back, Lens
Even matchupAguilar and Baidoo and Todibo give away 1.0 fouls a match, 12% more than the average defender (0.9). Gouiri draws plenty himself, at 1.2, which points to about 1.3 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
1.2Fouls drawn vs given1.0
2.0Shots vs tackles1.6
Fouls won over 0.55/10avg 1.2 · -295DraftKings
Shots over 2.55/10avg 2 · +115Fanatics
Shots on target over 0.55/10avg 1.1 · -180Fanatics
Fouls committed over 0.58/10avg 1.6 · -210DraftKings
Tackles over 1.57/10avg 2.4 · -195DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +475DraftKings
Fouls committed over 1.51/10avg 0.5 · +120DraftKings
Tackles over 1.53/10avg 1 · -190DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +475DraftKings
Fouls committed over 0.52/5avg 0.8 · -215DraftKings
Tackles over 1.53/5avg 1.4 · -185DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.50/5avg 0 · +390DraftKings
Trade Lens vs Marseille on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the match and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

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Predicted lineups

Predicted XIs; the official lineups post about an hour before kickoff and this page updates then. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.

Lens 3-4-2-1Marseille 4-2-3-1

6/1040 RisserSaves 2.5+
7/102 AguilarTackles 1.5+
6 Baidoo
3/520 TodiboTackles 1.5+
5/1023 AbdulhamidShots 0.5+
27 Cuisance
21 Haidara
6/1014 UdolFouls 0.5+
7/1010 ThauvinG+A 0.5+
7 Sotoca
9 Hazard
1 De Lange
74 Bezahaf
5/104 Egan-RileyFouls won 0.5+
21 Aguerd
25 Garcia
6/106 NnadiFouls 1.5+
23 Hojbjerg
6/1022 WeahTackles 1.5+
8 Abdelli
6/1014 PaixaoShots 1.5+
7/109 GouiriG+A 0.5+

Lens missing: O. Edouard (groin), I. Ganiou (knee), F. Ivanovic (head), M. Nawrocki (knee), A. Sima (muscle)

Marseille missing: D. Cornelius (hip), Emerson (knee)

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for Ligue 1 players. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Form and head to head

Lens9th in the tableLWWWL4W 1D 4L · 1.44 points a match
4meetings

2 wins0 draws2 wins
Marseille6th in the tableWWWWL5W 0D 4L · 1.67 points a match
75%Over 1.53/4
75%Over 2.53/4
50%Over 3.52/4
75%Both scored3/4
  • Jan 2026OM 3-1 LEN
  • Oct 2025LEN 2-1 OM
  • Mar 2025OM 0-1 LEN
  • Nov 2024LEN 1-3 OM

Clean sheets and goal trends

Lens

0%

Clean sheet0/9

22%

Failed to score2/9

78%

Both scored7/9

78%

Over 2.57/9

Marseille

33%

Clean sheet3/9

22%

Failed to score2/9

44%

Both scored4/9

56%

Over 2.55/9

Attack and defense

Attacking

LensMarseille
44%Win %56%
50%Possession %55%
78%Both teams scored %44%
44%Scored first %44%
  • 1.8Scored per match2.2
  • 11.2Shots per match11.3
  • 5.4Shots on target per match4.6
  • 2.2Big chances per match1.6

Defensive

LensMarseille
44%Loss %44%
22%Failed to score %22%
0%Clean sheet %33%
56%Conceded first %56%
  • 1.4Conceded per match1.4
  • 10.1Shots against per match14.3
  • 17.6Tackles per match14.3
  • 12.4Fouls per match11.3

Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.

Recent results

Lens LWWWL L 0-1 at LOSC · W 2-1 vs PFC · W 3-1 at Troyes · W 2-1 vs LYO · L 1-2 at ASM
Olympique Marseille WWWWL W 2-0 vs TOU · W 4-3 vs LEH · W 5-2 at ANG · W 2-0 at Troyes · L 1-2 vs PSG

Last five Ligue 1 results, most recent first.

Season numbers

Lens Olympique Marseille
Table 9 (13 pts) 6 (15 pts)
Record (W-D-L) 4-1-4 5-0-4
Home / away record 3-0-1 (9-5) home 2-0-2 (7-5) away
Goals scored per match 1.78 2.22
Goals conceded per match 1.44 1.44
Shots / on target per match 11.22 / 5.44 11.33 / 4.56
Both teams scored 78% 44%
Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals 78% / 78% / 33% 89% / 56% / 44%
Clean sheets 0% 33%
Failed to score 22% 22%
Yellow cards per match 2.00 1.33
Corners per match 6.02 4.42

This season, 9 and 9 matches.

Referee

Willy Delajod averages 3.3 yellow cards and 21.1 fouls per match over 8 matches this season (league average 3.5 and 24.7).

Injury report

Lens

  • Abdallah Sima (F): Out, Thigh Injury
  • Maik Nawrocki (D): Out, Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Pierre Ganiou (D): Out, Knee Injury
  • Jhoanner Chavez (M): Out, Hamstring Injury
  • Odsonne Édouard (F): Out, Groin Injury
  • Franjo Ivanovic (F): Out, Head Injury

Marseille

  • Derek Cornelius (D): Out, Hip Injury
  • Emerson (D): Out, Knee Injury
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Lens vs Marseille odds by sportsbook

Book RCL ML OLM ML Over Under
bet365 +125 +200 O 2.5 -150 U 2.5 +120
BetRivers +128 +185 O 3 -102 U 3 -130
DraftKings +125 +205 O 2.5 -155 U 2.5 +120
FanDuel +125 +210 O 2.5 -154 U 2.5 +128
Fanatics +125 +200 O 2.5 -160 U 2.5 +115

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 10:50 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement since we first listed this match (Sat 9:01 AM ET): total 3.5 → 2.5, Lens moneyline +130 → +128.

Goal lines and both teams to score

Both teams to score: yes -190, no +150

Total goals Over Under
1.5 -520 +370
2.5 -154 +128
3.5 +168 -210
4.5 +410 -590

Line movement chart

Total 3.5 → 2.5
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More on these teams: Lille vs Lens Oct 30 · All Ligue 1 prop picks · All Ligue 1 predictions

Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · football player props guide · how parlays work

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