Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 5, 2026)

Bayer Leverkusen logo

Bayer Leverkusen
3:00 PM ETThu, Nov 5
Marseille logo

Marseille

Europa League · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 3:00 PM ET

Result Moneyline
Bayer Leverkusen -333
Draw +500
Marseille +700

Total goals 3.5: over -102 , under -110

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 7:43 AM ET.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille preview

Thursday’s Europa League match sees Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille. Bayer Leverkusen is the -275 moneyline favorite, with Marseille +600 and the draw +450, while the total is 3.5.

Leverkusen sits second with 9 points and a 3-0-0 record, and its recent table form is WWW; its home record is 1-0-0. Marseille is 34th with 0 points and 0-0-3, with recent form LLL and an away record of 0-0-2.

The defensive numbers are the clearest angle: Leverkusen concedes 0.00 per match and has clean sheets in 100% of matches, while Marseille scores 0.33 per match and failed to score in 67%. Afonso Moreira’s over 0.5 shots on target prop at -192 has cleared in 8 of his last 10, a recent hit-rate angle.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction

87%Bayer Leverkusen
11%Draw
2%Marseille

The books imply 73% / 15% / 12%

2-0Most likely score21% chance
2.5 – 0.2Expected goals
50%Over 2.5 goals
17%Both teams to score

The numbers lean clearly to Bayer Leverkusen. The model puts them at 87% and the books at 69%, so the model is more bullish than the market. Leverkusen are 3-0-0 with WWW form, scoring 2.67 and conceding 0.00 per match with 100% clean sheets, while Marseille are 0-0-3 with LLL form, scoring 0.33 and conceding 2.00.

A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (3 and 3 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Afonso Moreira Bayer Leverkusen Over 0.5 shots on target -189 BetRivers 80% (8/10) 80%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 7:43 AM ET.

More Europa League props on the boardHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. A free account opens the board. Pro unlocks all of it.

Key matchups

From the predicted lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.

Moreira vs Weah

MoreiraWinger, Bayer Leverkusen
VS
WeahFull-back, Marseille
Good matchup for MoreiraWeah gives away 1.3 fouls a match, 39% more than the average defender (0.9). Moreira draws plenty himself, at 1.2, which points to about 1.7 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
1.2Fouls drawn vs given1.3
2.2Shots vs tackles2.7
Fouls won over 1.55/10avg 1.2 · -175bet365
Shots over 2.55/10avg 2.2 · -109BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.58/10avg 1.3 · -189BetRivers
Fouls committed over 1.52/3avg 1.3 · +120bet365
Tackles over 2.52/3avg 2.7 · -120bet365
Yellow card over 0.50/3avg 0 · +275bet365

Schick vs Aguerd

SchickStriker, Bayer Leverkusen
VS
AguerdCentre-back, Marseille
Even matchupAguerd gives away 1.0 fouls a match, 7% more than the average defender (0.9). Schick only draws 0.3, which points to about 0.3 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
0.3Fouls drawn vs given1.0
3.0Shots vs tackles0.3
Fouls won over 1.50/3avg 0.3 · +120bet365
Shots over 5.50/3avg 3 · +200bet365
Shots on target over 1.51/3avg 1 · -137bet365
Fouls committed over 1.51/3avg 1 · -120bet365
Tackles over 1.50/3avg 0.3 · -162bet365
Yellow card over 0.50/3avg 0 · +350bet365

Abdallah vs Gutierrez

AbdallahWinger, Marseille
VS
GutierrezFull-back, Bayer Leverkusen
Fouls won over 1.51/3avg 1.3 · +125bet365
Shots over 1.53/3avg 3.3 · -130FanDuel
Shots on target over 0.52/3avg 1 · +100FanDuel

Gutierrez has no lines, so the duel read favors Abdallah’s shot volume, which is well above his modest fouls-won average; the shot and SOT props are the fit.

Paixao vs Vazquez

PaixaoWinger, Marseille
VS
VazquezFull-back, Bayer Leverkusen
Fouls won over 1.50/3avg 1 · -162bet365
Shots over 1.53/3avg 3.3 · -159BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.52/3avg 1 · -105BetRivers

Paixao’s shot volume has cleared consistently and is the clear edge, while his fouls-won price is short despite no clearances; Vazquez has no lines, so the shot and SOT props are the fit.

Gouiri vs Medina and Quansah

GouiriStriker, Marseille
VS
MedinaCentre-back, Bayer Leverkusen
QuansahCentre-back, Bayer Leverkusen
Good matchup for GouiriMedina and Quansah give away 1.5 fouls a match, 60% more than the average defender (0.9). Gouiri only draws 0.0, which points to about 0.0 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.0Fouls drawn vs given1.5
0.7Shots vs tackles1.1
Fouls won over 0.50/3avg 0 · -250bet365
Shots over 2.50/3avg 0.7 · +155BetMGM
Shots on target over 0.50/3avg 0 · -182BetMGM
Fouls committed over 1.51/3avg 1 · +110bet365
Tackles over 1.51/3avg 1.3 · +120bet365
Yellow card over 0.50/3avg 0 · +210bet365
Fouls committed over 0.52/2avg 2 · -150bet365
Tackles over 1.51/2avg 1 · +125bet365
Yellow card over 0.51/2avg 0.5 · +450bet365
Trade Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the match and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

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Predicted lineups

Predicted XIs; the official lineups post about an hour before kickoff and this page updates then. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.

Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1Marseille 4-2-3-1

28 Blaswich
17 Vazquez
2 Medina
4 Quansah
3 Gutierrez
6 Fernandez
24 Garcia
7 Hofmann
10 Tillman
8/109 MoreiraSOT 0.5+
14 Schick
1 De Lange
22 Weah
18 Meite
21 Aguerd
25 Garcia
23 Hojbjerg
19 Kondogbia
48 Abdallah
7 Gomes
14 Paixao
9 Gouiri

Bayer Leverkusen missing: E. Ben Seghir (muscle), V. Boniface (off the roster), M. Diaby (hamstring), G. Doue (calf), K. Eichhorn (illness), T. Oermann (off the roster), M. Terrier (muscle)

Marseille missing: D. Cornelius (hip), Emerson (knee), A. Harit (inactive)

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for Europa League players. A free account opens the board. Pro unlocks all of it.

Form and head to head

Bayer Leverkusen3rd in the tableWWW3W 0D 0L · 3.00 points a match
No recent meetings
Marseille34th in the tableLLL0W 0D 3L · 0.00 points a match

Clean sheets and goal trends

Bayer Leverkusen

100%

Clean sheet3/3

0%

Failed to score0/3

0%

Both scored0/3

33%

Over 2.51/3

Marseille

0%

Clean sheet0/3

67%

Failed to score2/3

33%

Both scored1/3

33%

Over 2.51/3

Attack and defense

Attacking

Bayer LeverkusenMarseille
100%Win %0%
60%Possession %58%
0%Both teams scored %33%
100%Scored first %0%
  • 2.7Scored per match0.3
  • 22.7Shots per match12.7
  • 11.0Shots on target per match3.0
  • 0.0Big chances per match0.0

Defensive

Bayer LeverkusenMarseille
0%Loss %100%
0%Failed to score %67%
100%Clean sheet %0%
0%Conceded first %100%
  • 0.0Conceded per match2.0
  • 6.7Shots against per match13.3
  • 13.0Tackles per match14.3
  • 17.7Fouls per match11.0

Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.

Recent results

Bayer Leverkusen WWW W 2-0 at OFI · W 4-0 at Lech Pozna · W 2-0 vs Celje
Marseille LLL L 0-1 at STU · L 0-1 vs Olympiakos Piraeus · L 1-4 at BES

Last five Europa League results, most recent first.

Season numbers

Bayer Leverkusen Marseille
Table 3 (9 pts) 34 (0 pts)
Record (W-D-L) 3-0-0 0-0-3
Home / away record 1-0-0 (2-0) home 0-0-2 (1-5) away
Goals scored per match 2.67 0.33
Goals conceded per match 0.00 2.00
Shots / on target per match 22.67 / 11.00 12.67 / 3.00
Both teams scored 0% 33%
Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals 100% / 33% / 33% 33% / 33% / 33%
Clean sheets 100% 0%
Failed to score 0% 67%
Yellow cards per match 1.67 2.00
Corners per match 7.00 5.33

This season, 3 and 3 matches.

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 7:43 AM ET.

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Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille odds by sportsbook

Book B04 ML OLM ML Over Under
bet365 -333 +650 O 3.5 -110 U 3.5 -110
BetRivers -333 +650 O 3.5 -103 U 3.5 -125
FanDuel -350 +700 O 3.5 -102 U 3.5 -120

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 7:43 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement since we first listed this match (Wed 9:28 AM ET): Bayer Leverkusen moneyline -275 → -333.

Goal lines and both teams to score

Both teams to score: yes -150, no +118

Total goals Over Under
1.5 -1000 +610
2.5 -260 +205
3.5 -102 -120
4.5 +235 -300

Line movement chart

Total 3.5 → 3.5
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