| Result | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| -333 |
|
| Draw | +500 |
| +700 |
Total goals 3.5: over -102
, under -110 ![]()
Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 7:43 AM ET.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille preview
Thursday’s Europa League match sees Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille. Bayer Leverkusen is the -275 moneyline favorite, with Marseille +600 and the draw +450, while the total is 3.5.
Leverkusen sits second with 9 points and a 3-0-0 record, and its recent table form is WWW; its home record is 1-0-0. Marseille is 34th with 0 points and 0-0-3, with recent form LLL and an away record of 0-0-2.
The defensive numbers are the clearest angle: Leverkusen concedes 0.00 per match and has clean sheets in 100% of matches, while Marseille scores 0.33 per match and failed to score in 67%. Afonso Moreira’s over 0.5 shots on target prop at -192 has cleared in 8 of his last 10, a recent hit-rate angle.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction
The books imply 73% / 15% / 12%
The numbers lean clearly to Bayer Leverkusen. The model puts them at 87% and the books at 69%, so the model is more bullish than the market. Leverkusen are 3-0-0 with WWW form, scoring 2.67 and conceding 0.00 per match with 100% clean sheets, while Marseille are 0-0-3 with LLL form, scoring 0.33 and conceding 2.00.
A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (3 and 3 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.
StatsBench picks
No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.
Top Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille player props
| Player | Prop | Best price | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afonso Moreira Bayer Leverkusen | Over 0.5 shots on target | -189 |
80% (8/10) | 80% |
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 7:43 AM ET.
Key matchups
From the predicted lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.
Moreira vs Weah
Moreira
WeahSchick vs Aguerd
Schick
AguerdAbdallah vs Gutierrez
Abdallah
GutierrezGutierrez has no lines, so the duel read favors Abdallah’s shot volume, which is well above his modest fouls-won average; the shot and SOT props are the fit.
Paixao vs Vazquez
Paixao
VazquezPaixao’s shot volume has cleared consistently and is the clear edge, while his fouls-won price is short despite no clearances; Vazquez has no lines, so the shot and SOT props are the fit.
Gouiri vs Medina and Quansah
Gouiri
Medina
QuansahAffiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.
Predicted lineups
Predicted XIs; the official lineups post about an hour before kickoff and this page updates then. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
Marseille 4-2-3-1
28 Blaswich
17 Vazquez
2 Medina
4 Quansah
3 Gutierrez
6 Fernandez
24 Garcia
7 Hofmann
10 Tillman
8/109 MoreiraSOT 0.5+
14 Schick
1 De Lange
22 Weah
18 Meite
21 Aguerd
25 Garcia
23 Hojbjerg
19 Kondogbia
48 Abdallah
7 Gomes
14 Paixao
9 GouiriBayer Leverkusen missing: E. Ben Seghir (muscle), V. Boniface (off the roster), M. Diaby (hamstring), G. Doue (calf), K. Eichhorn (illness), T. Oermann (off the roster), M. Terrier (muscle)
Marseille missing: D. Cornelius (hip), Emerson (knee), A. Harit (inactive)
Form and head to head
Bayer Leverkusen3rd in the tableWWW3W 0D 0L · 3.00 points a match
Marseille34th in the tableLLL0W 0D 3L · 0.00 points a matchClean sheets and goal trends
Bayer Leverkusen
Clean sheet3/3
Failed to score0/3
Both scored0/3
Over 2.51/3
Marseille
Clean sheet0/3
Failed to score2/3
Both scored1/3
Over 2.51/3
Attack and defense
Attacking
- 2.7Scored per match0.3
- 22.7Shots per match12.7
- 11.0Shots on target per match3.0
- 0.0Big chances per match0.0
Defensive
- 0.0Conceded per match2.0
- 6.7Shots against per match13.3
- 13.0Tackles per match14.3
- 17.7Fouls per match11.0
Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.
Recent results
| Bayer Leverkusen | WWW | W 2-0 at OFI · W 4-0 at Lech Pozna · W 2-0 vs Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | LLL | L 0-1 at STU · L 0-1 vs Olympiakos Piraeus · L 1-4 at BES |
Last five Europa League results, most recent first.
Season numbers
| Bayer Leverkusen | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Table | 3 (9 pts) | 34 (0 pts) |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-0 | 0-0-3 |
| Home / away record | 1-0-0 (2-0) home | 0-0-2 (1-5) away |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Shots / on target per match | 22.67 / 11.00 | 12.67 / 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% |
| Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals | 100% / 33% / 33% | 33% / 33% / 33% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% |
| Yellow cards per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 5.33 |
This season, 3 and 3 matches.
Injury report
No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 7:43 AM ET.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille odds by sportsbook
| Book | B04 ML | OLM ML | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -333 | +650 | O 3.5 -110 | U 3.5 -110 | |
| -333 | +650 | O 3.5 -103 | U 3.5 -125 | |
| -350 | +700 | O 3.5 -102 | U 3.5 -120 |
Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 7:43 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.
Line movement since we first listed this match (Wed 9:28 AM ET): Bayer Leverkusen moneyline -275 → -333.
Goal lines and both teams to score
Both teams to score: yes -150, no +118
| Total goals | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | -1000 | +610 |
| 2.5 | -260 | +205 |
| 3.5 | -102 | -120 |
| 4.5 | +235 | -300 |
Line movement chart
Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · soccer player props guide · how parlays work
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