Blackhawks vs Lightning Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 5, 2026)

Chicago Blackhawks logo

Blackhawks4-12 · 6-10 ATS15th in the West
FINAL1 – 4
Tampa Bay Lightning logo

Lightning9-5 · 8-6 ATS5th in the East

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Benchmark International Arena

Final score by period

Team 1 2 3 T
Blackhawks 0 0 1 1
Lightning 2 0 2 4

How the bets settled

MoneylineLightning wonClosed at -485
SpreadLightning coveredLightning -1.5, by 1.5
TotalUnder 6.55 scored, 1.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Tampa Bay beat Chicago 4-1, taking control with a two-goal first period and pulling away in the third after Chicago got on the board. The game was decided by Tampa Bay’s ability to convert its chances and control the puck.

Ilya Mikheyev led the Lightning with two goals and two points, and Erik Cernak added two assists. Roman Kantserov scored Chicago’s goal, with Ethan Del Mastro assisting. Tampa Bay won 62.3 percent of faceoffs, went 1-for-3 on the power play, and outshot Chicago 35-26, while Chicago went 0-for-1 with the man advantage. Those team stats point to Tampa Bay spending more time with the puck and making its power play count.

For bettors, Lightning -1.5 covered by 1.5, and the 6.5 total went under by 1.5.

How the props finished

6 of 12 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Connor Bedard Over 0.5 points -140 Hard Rock 0 Missed
Conor Geekie Over 1.5 hits -194 Stake 2 Cleared
Roman Kantserov Over 0.5 points +117 Kalshi 1 Cleared
Charle-Edouard D’Astous Over 1.5 shots on goal +112 prophetexchange 1 Missed
Andrei Vasilevskiy Over 18.5 saves -104 Kalshi 25 Cleared
Max Crozier Over 1.5 shots on goal -110 ESPN BET 1 Missed
Alex Vlasic Over 1.5 blocks -162 William Hill 0 Missed
Brayden Point Over 0.5 points -212 Kalshi 1 Cleared
Jeffrey Viel Over 1.5 hits -251 Stake 3 Cleared
Frank Nazar Over 1.5 shots on goal -115 Caesars 1 Missed
Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 points -203 Kalshi 1 Cleared
Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 assists -203 Kalshi 0 Missed

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

LightningBlackhawks
The score margin against the closing spread (Lightning -1.5). Blue: Lightning covering. Orange: Blackhawks covering.
+1.5Largest CHI cover
31%CHI covering
+2.5Largest TB cover
69%TB covering

Top performers

Blackhawks

  • GoalsRoman Kantserov1
  • AssistsEthan Del Mastro1
  • PointsRoman Kantserov1

Lightning

  • GoalsIlya Mikheyev2
  • AssistsErik Cernak2
  • PointsIlya Mikheyev2

Team stats

BlackhawksLightning
26Shots35
37.7%Faceoffs won62.3%
0Power play goals1
31Hits13
8Blocked shots9
4Takeaways3
11Giveaways15
11Penalty minutes7

Box score

Chicago Blackhawks

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Connor Bedard C 0 0 0 3 -2 18:05 25 1 0 0 0 2 41.2
Tyler Bertuzzi LW 0 0 0 0 -2 16:56 23 0 0 0 1 0 0.0
Dillon Boucher LW 0 0 0 0 0 8:12 12 7 0 0 0 5 0.0
Ryan Donato C 0 0 0 3 0 14:13 20 0 1 1 1 0 60.0
Anton Frondell C 0 0 0 1 0 17:58 23 1 1 0 0 0 38.5
Ryan Greene C 0 0 0 1 0 12:56 20 3 0 0 0 0 63.6
Roman Kantserov RW 1 0 0 2 -2 17:31 25 0 1 0 0 0 22.2
Andrew Mangiapane LW 0 0 0 1 0 12:39 17 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Oliver Moore C 0 0 0 3 0 13:53 19 2 0 0 2 0 0.0
Frank Nazar C 0 0 0 1 0 15:47 25 4 0 0 2 0 15.4
Cole Smith RW 0 0 0 2 0 12:47 21 6 0 0 0 0 0.0
Teuvo Teravainen C 0 0 0 0 0 13:20 19 1 0 1 0 0 0.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Ian Cole D 0 0 0 0 0 19:22 27 1 2 0 2 0 0.0
Ethan Del Mastro D 0 1 0 1 0 14:06 19 0 0 0 0 4 0.0
Wyatt Kaiser D 0 0 0 1 -2 19:55 27 1 2 0 1 0 0.0
Artyom Levshunov D 0 0 0 1 -1 20:45 26 1 1 0 0 0 0.0
Sam Rinzel D 0 1 0 4 -1 20:50 26 1 0 1 2 0 0.0
Alex Vlasic D 0 0 0 2 0 24:56 27 2 0 1 0 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Arvid Soderblom G 4 35 0 0 31 .886 28 3 0 60:00 0 0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Anthony Cirelli C 0 1 0 2 0 14:53 21 0 0 0 2 0 80.0
Conor Geekie C 0 0 0 1 0 11:01 15 2 0 0 0 0 0.0
Zemgus Girgensons C 0 1 0 5 2 15:41 20 3 1 0 0 0 61.9
Gage Goncalves C 0 0 0 1 0 17:41 22 2 1 0 0 0 0.0
Jake Guentzel C 0 1 0 1 1 20:36 25 0 0 1 3 0 57.1
Brandon Hagel LW 0 1 0 3 0 16:48 20 0 0 1 0 0 100.0
Pontus Holmberg RW 0 1 0 2 2 16:28 22 0 0 0 0 0 100.0
Nikita Kucherov RW 0 0 0 3 0 20:26 24 0 1 1 1 0 0.0
Ilya Mikheyev RW 2 0 0 3 1 16:26 22 0 1 0 1 0 0.0
Brayden Point C 0 1 0 0 0 19:23 24 0 0 0 0 0 63.2
Jeffrey Viel LW 0 0 0 1 0 9:48 13 3 0 0 0 5 0.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
John Carlson D 0 0 0 0 -1 20:47 25 0 2 0 2 0 0.0
Erik Cernak D 0 2 0 3 3 16:05 24 2 0 0 2 0 0.0
Max Crozier D 0 0 0 1 0 20:54 23 1 2 0 1 0 0.0
Charle-Edouard D’Astous D 0 0 0 1 -1 17:02 21 0 0 0 1 2 0.0
Victor Hedman D 1 0 0 3 0 16:23 22 0 0 0 1 0 0.0
Ryan McDonagh D 1 0 0 3 3 14:44 22 0 1 0 0 0 0.0
JJ Moser D 0 0 0 2 0 13:00 16 0 0 0 1 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Andrei Vasilevskiy G 1 26 0 0 25 .962 24 1 0 59:54 0 0

Attendance 19,092 · Officials: Francois St. Laurent, Libor Suchanek, Corey Syvret, Ryan Jackson

Recap: Ilya Mikheyev scores twice and Lightning beat the Blackhawks 4-1 to improve to 8-0 at home (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Blackhawks vs Lightning player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Connor Bedard CHI Over 0.5 points -140 Hard Rock 90% (9/10) 100% 0.9
Conor Geekie TBL Over 1.5 hits -194 Stake 90% (9/10) 80% –
Roman Kantserov CHI Over 0.5 points +117 Kalshi 70% (7/10) 100% 0.6
Andrei Vasilevskiy TBL Over 18.5 saves -108 Kalshi 70% (7/10) 60% –
Charle-Edouard D’Astous TBL Over 1.5 shots on goal -110 Hard Rock 70% (7/10) 80% –

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 10:09 PM ET.

Betting trends

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Blackhawks vs Lightning pre-game preview

The moneyline prices Tampa Bay as a -390 favorite with Chicago at +350, and the total is 6.5. Chicago lost the last meeting 1-2 at home on January 23, 2026. Chicago is 4-11 (6-9 ATS) this season and 3-7 (4-6 ATS) over its last 10 after a 2-5 loss to Colorado on November 2. Tampa Bay is 9-5 (8-6 ATS) and 6-4 (6-4 ATS) over its last 10 after a 4-2 win over Detroit on November 3. The defensive ranks are a useful angle: Chicago allows 3.87 goals per game (31st) and 30.33 shots on goal (29th), while Tampa Bay allows 3.07 goals (14th) and 24.57 shots (5th). Chicago lists Patrick Kane out with an upper-body injury for at least the next couple of games and Bowen Byram on IR; Tampa Bay has Yanni Gourde on IR and Zemgus Girgensons day-to-day.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Chicago Blackhawks

Connor Bedard C1.2 PTS · 3.2 SOG · 0.4 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/4 @ FLA 22:25 0 2 4 2
11/2 vs COL 21:19 0 1 4 2
10/31 @ BOS 22:07 1 1 6 1
10/29 @ DET 18:22 1 0 4 1
10/27 vs LAK 19:21 0 1 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 1.2 (10) 1.7 (3) 1.1 (69) 0.0 (2)
0 · 0
SOG 3.2 (10) 4.7 (3) 3.3 (69) 1.5 (2)
0 · 3

Patrick Kane R0.6 PTS · 1.7 SOG · 0.1 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/2 vs COL 10:20 0 0 0 0
10/31 @ BOS 15:11 0 1 2 1
10/29 @ DET 14:23 0 0 1 0
10/27 vs LAK 14:23 0 1 1 1
10/25 vs FLA 20:21 0 1 2 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 0.6 (15) 0.5 (6) 0.9 (67) 0.5 (4)
1 · 1 · 0 · 0
SOG 1.7 (15) 1.2 (6) 2.5 (67) 2.8 (4)
1 · 4 · 4 · 2

Roman Kantserov R0.6 PTS · 1.7 SOG · 0.4 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/4 @ FLA 21:44 1 0 3 0
11/2 vs COL 16:31 1 0 1 0
10/31 @ BOS 18:51 0 1 0 0
10/29 @ DET 17:41 0 1 1 0
10/27 vs LAK 15:52 1 0 4 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 0.6 (16) 0.4 (7) – –
SOG 1.7 (16) 1.0 (7) – –

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov R1.4 PTS · 2.7 SOG · 0.3 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/3 vs DET 21:40 0 2 3 0
10/31 @ NSH 23:41 0 3 1 1
10/29 vs WPG 16:13 0 1 3 1
10/24 @ UTA 20:02 0 1 3 0
10/23 @ COL 20:43 0 0 2 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs CHI
PTS 1.4 (14) 1.4 (7) 1.6 (83) 1.5 (2)
1 · 2
SOG 2.7 (14) 3.7 (7) 3.1 (83) 2.0 (2)
1 · 3

Brandon Hagel L1.1 PTS · 4.2 SOG · 0.6 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/3 vs DET 22:05 0 0 1 0
10/31 @ NSH 20:13 0 0 3 0
10/29 vs WPG 21:47 1 2 5 1
10/24 @ UTA 22:51 0 0 7 1
10/23 @ COL 20:33 0 1 2 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs CHI
PTS 1.1 (14) 1.4 (7) 1.1 (78) 0.5 (2)
1 · 0
SOG 4.2 (14) 4.9 (7) 3.0 (78) 2.5 (2)
2 · 3

Jake Guentzel C1.0 PTS · 2.7 SOG · 0.6 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/3 vs DET 19:30 0 0 0 0
10/31 @ NSH 25:56 1 0 3 0
10/29 vs WPG 22:51 0 1 6 1
10/24 @ UTA 19:32 1 0 2 0
10/23 @ COL 22:12 2 0 7 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs CHI
PTS 1.0 (14) 1.1 (7) 1.1 (88) 0.5 (2)
0 · 1
SOG 2.7 (14) 2.6 (7) 2.7 (88) 2.5 (2)
3 · 2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Blackhawks 4-12 6-10 9-7 4-5 0-7
Lightning 9-5 8-6 8-6 7-0 2-5

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Blackhawks vs Lightning head-to-head

Blackhawks are 3-3, 2-1 ATS, O/U 2-1 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Blackhawks lost 1-2 on January 23, 2026.

Date Venue Blackhawks result ATS O/U
Jan 23, 26 Blackhawks home L 1-2 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 23, 25 Lightning home W 3-2 – –
Jan 28, 25 Lightning home W 4-1 – –
Jan 24, 25 Blackhawks home L 3-4 – –
Nov 16, 23 Blackhawks home L 2-4 L +1.5 O 5.5
Nov 9, 23 Lightning home W 5-3 W +1.5 O 5.5

Recent form

Chicago Blackhawks: last 10 (3-7, 4-6 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ FLA L 3-5 L +1.5 O 5.5
Nov 2, 26 vs COL L 2-5 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ BOS L 4-5 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 29, 26 @ DET L 1-4 L +1.5 U 5.5
Oct 27, 26 vs LA W 2-1 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 25, 26 vs FLA L 2-3 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 23, 26 vs MTL L 1-4 L +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs DAL L 0-4 L +1.5 U 5.5
Oct 15, 26 vs WPG W 4-3 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 13, 26 vs PIT W 5-3 W +1.5 O 6.5

Tampa Bay Lightning: last 10 (6-4, 6-4 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 3, 26 vs DET W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ NSH L 4-5 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 29, 26 vs WPG W 6-4 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 24, 26 @ UTA L 4-5 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 23, 26 @ COL L 3-6 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ VGK W 6-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs VAN W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 15, 26 vs SEA W 4-3 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 13, 26 @ NYR L 1-4 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 10, 26 @ NYI W 5-3 W -1.5 O 5.5

Injury report

Chicago Blackhawks

  • Patrick Kane (R): Out, Head coach Jeff Blashill said after Monday’s 5-2 loss to the Avalanche that Kane has an upper-body injury and will miss at least the next couple of games, Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times reports
  • Bowen Byram (D): Injured Reserve, Byram

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Yanni Gourde (C): Injured Reserve, Gourde

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Blackhawks defense Lightning defense
Goals allowed per game 3.94 (31st of 32) 3.07 (15th of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game 30.25 (30th of 32) 24.57 (5th of 32)
Points allowed per game 10.5 (31st of 32) 8.29 (15th of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game 2 (15th of 32) 1.93 (12th of 32)
Pace (possessions) 53.1 (22nd) 54.4 (18th)

Venue and weather

Benchmark International Arena · Tampa, FLIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Blackhawks vs Lightning odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Lightning spread -1.5 -1.5 –
Total 6.5 6.5 –
Blackhawks moneyline +310 +370 -3.1% win chance
Lightning moneyline -395 -485 +3.1% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Lightning spread -2.5 → -2.5
Total 6.5 → 6.5
The next NHL slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.

More on these teams: Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers Nov 4 · Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Nov 3 · All NHL prop picks

Betting guides: NHL player props guide · NHL shots on goal strategy · NHL points props guide · how parlays work

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