Napoli vs Lazio Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 8, 2026)

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Serie A prop picks: today's featured picks
Napoli logo

Napoli10th in Serie A
6:30 AM ETSun, Nov 8
Lazio logo

Lazio1st in Serie A

Serie A · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 6:30 AM ET

Result Moneyline
Napoli +130
Draw +275
Lazio +195

Total goals 2.5: over -145 , under +128

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 7:30 PM ET.

Napoli vs Lazio preview

Sunday’s Serie A match sees Napoli host Lazio, with Napoli the moneyline favorite at +130, Lazio +200 and the draw +265, and the total set at 2.5. The last meeting went Lazio’s way, 2-0 at Napoli on April 18, 2026. Lazio enter first in Serie A on 28 points from 10 matches (9-1-0) and recent form WWWWW, while Napoli are eighth on 14 points (4-2-4) with form LWDLW. Lazio’s away record is 5-0-0; Napoli’s home record is 2-1-1.

The main angles sit in team context and props. Lazio concede 0.80 per match and score 2.40, while Napoli concede 1.30 and score 1.70. Napoli’s availability is a factor, with Buongiorno and Lobotka among the players out, and Lazio’s Gudmundsson also out. Kenneth Taylor’s over 0.5 fouls won at -190 has cleared in 9 of his last 10, and Reda Belahyane’s over 1.5 tackles at -140 has cleared in 7 of his last 10.

Napoli vs Lazio prediction

25%Napoli
22%Draw
53%Lazio

The books imply 42% / 25% / 33%

1-1Most likely score10% chance
1.3 – 1.9Expected goals
62%Over 2.5 goals
62%Both teams to score

The model leans Lazio at 53%, but the books make Napoli the favorite at 42%, so they disagree. Lazio’s 9-1-0 record, current five-match winning form and 2.40 scoring rate explain the model’s side, while Napoli is missing several regulars including Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno and Lobotka.

A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (10 and 10 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Napoli vs Lazio player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Rafa Marín Napoli Over 0.5 fouls won +120 bet365 77.8% (7/9) 80%
Adam Marusic Lazio Over 0.5 fouls won +120 DraftKings 70% (7/10) 80%
Reda Belahyane Lazio Over 1.5 tackles -140 DraftKings 70% (7/10) 60%
Nicolò Rovella Lazio Over 0.5 fouls won -175 DraftKings 70% (7/10) 60%
Luca Pellegrini Lazio Over 0.5 yellow card +175 bet365 60% (6/10) 60%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 7:30 PM ET.

The rest of the Napoli vs Lazio propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Tijjani NoslinOver 0.5 score or assist6/10
Romano Floriani MussoliniOver 1.5 tackles6/10
Andrea PinamontiOver 0.5 fouls6/10

Key matchups

From the predicted lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.

Hojlund vs Sutalo and Provstgaard

HojlundStriker, Napoli
VS
SutaloCentre-back, Lazio
ProvstgaardCentre-back, Lazio

No lines posted

Fouls committed over 0.52/7avg 0.3 · -125bet365
Tackles over 0.54/7avg 0.9 · -275bet365
Yellow card over 0.50/7avg 0 · +425Fanatics
Fouls committed over 0.58/10avg 1.5 · -235DraftKings
Tackles over 0.56/10avg 0.9 · -333bet365
Yellow card over 0.53/10avg 0.3 · +360DraftKings

Hojlund has no posted lines, so this is a defender-discipline read: Provstgaard’s fouls committed over 0.5 is the more active prop, while Sutalo’s low foul and card rates make his discipline lines fragile.

Isaksen vs Lang

IsaksenWinger, Lazio
VS
LangFull-back, Napoli
Tough matchup for IsaksenLang gives away 0.4 fouls a match, 47% less than the average defender (0.8). Isaksen draws plenty himself, at 2.0, which points to about 1.1 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
2.0Fouls drawn vs given0.4
1.7Shots vs tackles0.9
Fouls won over 1.54/10avg 2 · -130DraftKings
Shots over 2.53/10avg 1.7 · -114BetMGM
Shots on target over 0.54/10avg 0.4 · -164BetRivers
Fouls committed over 1.51/10avg 0.4 · +220DraftKings
Tackles over 1.50/10avg 0.9 · +130DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.50/10avg 0 · +290DraftKings

Noslin vs Politano

NoslinWinger, Lazio
VS
PolitanoFull-back, Napoli
Tough matchup for NoslinPolitano gives away 0.4 fouls a match, 47% less than the average defender (0.8). Noslin only draws 0.4, which points to about 0.2 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
0.4Fouls drawn vs given0.4
1.5Shots vs tackles0.4
Fouls won over 1.52/10avg 0.4 · +110DraftKings
Shots over 2.51/10avg 1.5 · +150bet365
Shots on target over 0.55/10avg 0.8 · -125BetRivers
Fouls committed over 0.54/10avg 0.4 · -150bet365
Tackles over 1.51/10avg 0.4 · +110DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +380DraftKings

Pinamonti vs Beukema and Rrahmani and Marin

PinamontiStriker, Lazio
VS
BeukemaCentre-back, Napoli
RrahmaniCentre-back, Napoli
MarinCentre-back, Napoli
Good matchup for PinamontiBeukema and Rrahmani and Marin give away 1.1 fouls a match, 41% more than the average defender (0.8). Pinamonti only draws 0.5, which points to about 0.7 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.5Fouls drawn vs given1.1
0.7Shots vs tackles1.3
Fouls won over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · -220DraftKings
Shots over 2.51/10avg 0.7 · +105Fanatics
Shots on target over 0.53/10avg 0.5 · -150Fanatics
Fouls committed over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · -165DraftKings
Tackles over 1.51/10avg 0.4 · -137bet365
Yellow card over 0.50/10avg 0 · +550DraftKings
Fouls committed over 0.56/10avg 1.1 · -275bet365
Tackles over 1.54/10avg 1.4 · -110DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +400bet365
Fouls committed over 0.57/9avg 1.6 · -240DraftKings
Tackles over 1.56/9avg 2.1 · -150bet365
Yellow card over 0.53/9avg 0.3 · +300bet365
Trade Napoli vs Lazio on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the match and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

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Predicted lineups

Predicted XIs; the official lineups post about an hour before kickoff and this page updates then. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.

Napoli 3-5-1-1Lazio 4-3-3

1 Meret
31 Beukema
5/1013 RrahmaniShots 0.5+
7/916 MarinFouls won 0.5+
5/1021 PolitanoSOT 0.5+
99 Anguissa
5/106 GilmourFouls 0.5+
6/108 McTominaySOT 0.5+
70 Lang
11 De Bruyne
19 Hojlund
35 Mandas
15 Floriani
37 Sutalo
25 Provstgaard
5/1017 TavaresTackles 1.5+
5/1016 FrattesiSOT 0.5+
7/1021 BelahyaneTackles 1.5+
24 Taylor
11 Isaksen
6/109 PinamontiFouls 0.5+
6/1014 NoslinG+A 0.5+

Napoli missing: Alisson Santos (muscle), B. Badiashile (muscle), A. Buongiorno (knee), David Neres (thigh), G. Di Lorenzo (muscle), C. Favasuli (thigh), S. Lobotka (ankle), L. Marianucci (red card), L. Spinazzola (thigh)

Lazio missing: A. Furlanetto (knee), A. Gudmundsson (shoulder), M. Zaccagni (thigh)

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for Serie A players. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Form and head to head

Napoli10th in the tableLWDLW4W 2D 4L · 1.40 points a match
4meetings

1 win1 draw2 wins
Lazio1st in the tableWWWWW9W 1D 0L · 2.80 points a match
75%Over 1.53/4
25%Over 2.51/4
25%Over 3.51/4
25%Both scored1/4
  • Apr 2026NAP 0-2 LAZ
  • Jan 2026LAZ 0-2 NAP
  • Feb 2025LAZ 2-2 NAP
  • Dec 2024NAP 0-1 LAZ

Clean sheets and goal trends

Napoli

30%

Clean sheet3/10

20%

Failed to score2/10

50%

Both scored5/10

50%

Over 2.55/10

Lazio

40%

Clean sheet4/10

0%

Failed to score0/10

60%

Both scored6/10

70%

Over 2.57/10

Attack and defense

Attacking

NapoliLazio
40%Win %90%
52%Possession %54%
50%Both teams scored %60%
70%Scored first %80%
  • 1.7Scored per match2.4
  • 13.6Shots per match12.2
  • 5.6Shots on target per match4.6
  • 1.8Big chances per match2.0

Defensive

NapoliLazio
40%Loss %0%
20%Failed to score %0%
30%Clean sheet %40%
30%Conceded first %20%
  • 1.3Conceded per match0.8
  • 13.9Shots against per match10.2
  • 14.4Tackles per match13.9
  • 8.6Fouls per match11.1

Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.

Recent results

Napoli LWDLW L 0-2 at JUV · W 4-1 at MON · D 3-3 vs ROM · L 0-1 at VEN · W 3-0 vs Frosinone
Lazio WWWWW W 2-1 vs CAG · W 6-2 at SAS · W 2-1 vs PRM · W 3-0 at JUV · W 3-1 vs MON

Last five Serie A results, most recent first.

Season numbers

Napoli Lazio
Table 10 (14 pts) 1 (28 pts)
Record (W-D-L) 4-2-4 9-1-0
Home / away record 2-1-1 (8-5) home 5-0-0 (14-3) away
Goals scored per match 1.70 2.40
Goals conceded per match 1.30 0.80
Shots / on target per match 13.60 / 5.60 12.20 / 4.60
Both teams scored 50% 60%
Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals 80% / 50% / 30% 80% / 70% / 30%
Clean sheets 30% 40%
Failed to score 20% 0%
Yellow cards per match 0.80 1.60
Corners per match 5.10 4.70

This season, 10 and 10 matches.

Referee

Luca J. Pairetto averages 3.6 yellow cards and 20.8 fouls per match over 8 matches this season (league average 3.1 and 21.7), a card-heavy referee.

Injury report

Napoli

  • Costantino Favasuli (M): Out, Thigh Injury
  • Alessandro Buongiorno (D): Out, Meniscus Injury
  • David Neres (F): Out, Thigh Injury
  • Alisson Santos (F): Out, Thigh Injury
  • Benoît Badiashile (D): Out, Muscle Injury
  • Leonardo Spinazzola (M): Out, Thigh Injury
  • Stanislav Lobotka (M): Out, Ankle Injury
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo (D): Out, Muscle Injury

Lazio

  • Albert Gudmundsson (F): Out, Shoulder Injury
  • Mattia Zaccagni (F): Out, Thigh Injury
Compare Serie A playersHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books, side by side. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Napoli vs Lazio odds by sportsbook

Book NAP ML LAZ ML Over Under
bet365 +130 +190 O 2.5 -150 U 2.5 +120
BetRivers +125 +188 O 2.75 -118 U 2.75 -111
DraftKings +130 +180 O 2.5 -155 U 2.5 +120
FanDuel +125 +195 O 2.5 -158 U 2.5 +128
Fanatics +130 +190 O 2.5 -145 U 2.5 +110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 7:30 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement since we first listed this match (Sat 12:40 AM ET): no change in the main lines yet.

Goal lines and both teams to score

Both teams to score: yes -190, no +150

Total goals Over Under
1.5 -500 +360
2.5 -158 +128
3.5 +168 -210
4.5 +420 -600

Line movement chart

Total 2.5 → 2.5
Shop the player props tooProp prices across 30+ sportsbooks and pick’em apps, with hit rates beside them. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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More on these teams: Juventus vs Napoli Nov 1 · Lazio vs Cagliari Nov 1 · All Serie A prop picks · All Serie A predictions

Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · football player props guide · how parlays work

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