Real Sociedad vs Lyon Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 5, 2026)

Real Sociedad logo

Real Sociedad
12:45 PM ETThu, Nov 5
Lyon logo

Lyon

Europa League · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 12:45 PM ET

Result Moneyline
Real Sociedad -161
Draw +360
Lyon +400

Total goals 3.5: over +120 , under -144

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 8:27 AM ET.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon preview

Real Sociedad hosts Lyon in Europa League play Thursday, with Real Sociedad a -125 moneyline favorite, Lyon +320 and the draw +310, and a 2.5 total. Real Sociedad sits 14th on 4 points with a 1-1-1 record and WDL form most recent first, including a 0-0-1 home mark. Lyon is 12th on 6 points with a 9-1-3 record and LWWLD form, and its away record is 1-0-1.

The prop board points to Corentin Tolisso over 0.5 shots on target at -111, which he cleared in 8 of his last 10, and Tyler Morton over 0.5 shots at -150, cleared in 7 of his last 10. Lyon’s listed absences include Openda, Ouedraogo and Sulc, while Real Sociedad lists Odriozola out with a knee injury. Both teams to score is priced yes -200 and no +143.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction

58%Real Sociedad
21%Draw
21%Lyon

The books imply 60% / 21% / 19%

2-1Most likely score10% chance
2.1 – 1.2Expected goals
64%Over 2.5 goals
62%Both teams to score

The model leans Real Sociedad, giving them 58% against Lyon’s 21%, with expected goals of 2.11 to 1.21 and a most likely 2-1 score. The books also make Real Sociedad favorite at 54%, though by a smaller margin. Real Sociedad’s 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match support the lean, while Lyon list Kango, Openda, Ouedraogo and Sulc as missing.

A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (3 and 13 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Real Sociedad vs Lyon player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Corentin Tolisso Olympique Lyonnais Over 0.5 shots on target -115 BetRivers 80% (8/10) 80%
Kaïl Boudache Olympique Lyonnais Over 1.5 fouls won -150 bet365 80% (4/5) 80%
Tyler Morton Olympique Lyonnais Over 0.5 shots -162 bet365 70% (7/10) 40%
Ruben Kluivert Olympique Lyonnais Over 0.5 shots +163 bet365 66.7% (6/9) 60%
Nicolás Tagliafico Olympique Lyonnais Over 0.5 shots -152 BetMGM 66.7% (6/9) 40%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 8:27 AM ET.

The rest of the Real Sociedad vs Lyon propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. A free account opens the board. Pro unlocks all of it.
Mads BidstrupOver 2.5 tackles4/8
Dominik GreifOver 3.5 saves4/8
Khalis MerahOver 1.5 shots4/9

Key matchups

From the predicted lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.

Kubo vs Abner

KuboWinger, Real Sociedad
VS
AbnerFull-back, Lyon
Even matchupAbner gives away 1.1 fouls a match, 18% more than the average defender (0.9). Kubo only draws 0.7, which points to about 0.8 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
0.7Fouls drawn vs given1.1
0.0Shots vs tackles0.8
Fouls won over 1.51/3avg 0.7 · -225bet365
Shots over 1.50/3avg 0 · -133BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.50/3avg 0 · -103BetRivers
Fouls committed over 0.55/8avg 1.1 · -225bet365
Tackles over 1.51/8avg 0.8 · -162bet365
Yellow card over 0.51/8avg 0.1 · +275bet365

Guedes vs Athekame

GuedesWinger, Real Sociedad
VS
AthekameFull-back, Lyon
Fouls won over 1.53/3avg 3.3 · -137bet365
Shots over 2.52/3avg 2 · +115BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.52/3avg 0.7 · -154BetRivers

Guedes has the clear foul-drawing edge, so his fouls won over 1.5 is the prop; Athekame has no posted lines to counter it.

Oyarzabal vs Kluivert and Mata

OyarzabalStriker, Real Sociedad
VS
KluivertCentre-back, Lyon
MataCentre-back, Lyon

No lines posted

Fouls committed over 1.52/9avg 1.1 · +120bet365
Tackles over 1.54/9avg 1.6 · -162bet365
Yellow card over 0.52/9avg 0.2 · +275bet365
Fouls committed over 0.56/10avg 0.9 · -225bet365
Tackles over 1.50/10avg 0.4 · +120bet365
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +333bet365

With Oyarzabal unposted, Mata’s foul tendency gives the defender side the edge and points to his fouls committed over 0.5.

Sucic vs Kluivert and Mata

SucicStriker, Real Sociedad
VS
KluivertCentre-back, Lyon
MataCentre-back, Lyon
Even matchupKluivert and Mata give away 1.0 fouls a match, 7% more than the average defender (0.9). Sucic only draws 0.0, which points to about 0.0 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.0Fouls drawn vs given1.0
1.7Shots vs tackles1.0
Fouls won over 0.50/3avg 0 · -150bet365
Shots over 2.51/3avg 1.7 · +102BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.51/3avg 0.7 · -102BetRivers
Fouls committed over 1.52/9avg 1.1 · +120bet365
Tackles over 1.54/9avg 1.6 · -162bet365
Yellow card over 0.52/9avg 0.2 · +275bet365
Fouls committed over 0.56/10avg 0.9 · -225bet365
Tackles over 1.50/10avg 0.4 · +120bet365
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +333bet365

Boudache vs Gomez

BoudacheWinger, Lyon
VS
GomezFull-back, Real Sociedad
Fouls won over 1.54/5avg 1.8 · -150bet365
Shots over 1.51/5avg 1 · +110BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.53/5avg 0.8 · +125BetRivers

Boudache has the foul-drawing and shot-involvement edge, so his fouls won over 1.5 is the best-supported prop; Gomez has no posted lines.

Nakamura vs Zubeldia

NakamuraWinger, Lyon
VS
ZubeldiaFull-back, Real Sociedad
Fouls won over 0.52/3avg 1 · -137bet365
Shots over 2.50/3avg 2 · +170BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.52/3avg 1 · -111BetRivers

Nakamura’s shot volume sits below the 2.5 line, so his shots on target over 0.5 is the more supported prop; Zubeldia has no posted lines.

Merah vs Sarr

MerahStriker, Lyon
VS
SarrCentre-back, Real Sociedad
Even matchupSarr gives away 1.0 fouls a match, 7% more than the average defender (0.9). Merah only draws 0.7, which points to about 0.7 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
0.7Fouls drawn vs given1.0
1.1Shots vs tackles1.3
Fouls won over 1.52/9avg 0.7 · -110bet365
Shots over 1.54/9avg 1.1 · +105BetMGM
Shots on target over 0.51/9avg 0.1 · +175bet365
Fouls committed over 0.52/3avg 1 · -275bet365
Tackles over 1.51/3avg 1.3 · -162bet365
Yellow card over 0.52/3avg 0.7 · +300bet365
Trade Real Sociedad vs Lyon on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the match and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

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Predicted lineups

Predicted XIs; the official lineups post about an hour before kickoff and this page updates then. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.

Real Sociedad 4-4-2Lyon 4-3-3

13 Marrero
5 Zubeldia
6 Martin
19 Sarr
17 Gomez
14 Kubo
4 Gorrotxategi
18 Soler
11 Guedes
10 Oyarzabal
24 Sucic
4/81 GreifSaves 3.5+
13 Athekame
6/921 KluivertShots 0.5+
22 Mata
16 Abner
99 Nartey
6 Tessmann
8/108 TolissoSOT 0.5+
4/526 BoudacheFouls won 1.5+
18 Merah
11 Nakamura

Real Sociedad missing: L. Beitia (ankle), A. Odriozola (knee), A. Zakharyan (ankle)

Lyon missing: R. Himbert (inactive), S. Kango (concussion), T. Morton (groin), M. Niakhate (rest), E. Nuamah (injury), L. Openda (leg), M. Ouedraogo (knee), P. Sulc (knee)

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for Europa League players. A free account opens the board. Pro unlocks all of it.

Form and head to head

Real Sociedad14th in the tableWDL1W 1D 1L · 1.33 points a match
No recent meetings
Lyon13th in the tableLWWLD9W 1D 3L · 2.15 points a match

Clean sheets and goal trends

Real Sociedad

33%

Clean sheet1/3

0%

Failed to score0/3

67%

Both scored2/3

67%

Over 2.52/3

Lyon

39%

Clean sheet5/13

23%

Failed to score3/13

39%

Both scored5/13

46%

Over 2.56/13

Attack and defense

Attacking

Real SociedadLyon
33%Win %69%
55%Possession %59%
67%Both teams scored %39%
67%Scored first %62%
  • 2.7Scored per match1.9
  • 12.3Shots per match12.1
  • 4.7Shots on target per match5.1
  • 0.0Big chances per match1.5

Defensive

Real SociedadLyon
33%Loss %23%
0%Failed to score %23%
33%Clean sheet %39%
33%Conceded first %39%
  • 1.0Conceded per match1.1
  • 13.7Shots against per match11.2
  • 13.7Tackles per match12.9
  • 10.7Fouls per match9.5

Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.

Recent results

Real Sociedad WDL W 6-0 at Lillestrom · D 1-1 at Union St. Gilloise · L 1-2 vs Bournemouth
Olympique Lyonnais LWWLD L 0-3 at 1899 Hoffenheim · W 3-2 vs Crystal Palace · W 2-1 at ADL · L 0-2 vs CEL · D 1-1 at CEL

Last five Europa League results, most recent first.

Season numbers

Real Sociedad Olympique Lyonnais
Table 14 (4 pts) 13 (6 pts)
Record (W-D-L) 1-1-1 9-1-3
Home / away record 0-0-1 (1-2) home 1-0-1 (2-4) away
Goals scored per match 2.67 1.85
Goals conceded per match 1.00 1.08
Shots / on target per match 12.33 / 4.67 12.08 / 5.08
Both teams scored 67% 39%
Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals 100% / 67% / 33% 85% / 46% / 23%
Clean sheets 33% 39%
Failed to score 0% 23%
Yellow cards per match 1.67 1.54
Corners per match 5.33 4.67

This season, 3 and 13 matches.

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 8:27 AM ET.

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Real Sociedad vs Lyon odds by sportsbook

Book RSO ML LYON ML Over Under
bet365 -162 +400 O 3.5 +120 U 3.5 -150
BetRivers -161 +350 O 3 -127 U 3 -104
FanDuel -190 +400 O 3.5 +116 U 3.5 -144

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 8:27 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement since we first listed this match (Wed 6:50 AM ET): total 2.5 → 3.5, Real Sociedad moneyline -125 → -161.

Goal lines and both teams to score

Both teams to score: yes -210, no +160

Total goals Over Under
1.5 -800 +520
2.5 -220 +176
3.5 +118 -144
4.5 +270 -355

Line movement chart

Total 2.5 → 3.5
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More on these teams: All Europa League predictions

Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · soccer player props guide · how parlays work

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