| Result | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| -161 |
|
| Draw | +360 |
| +400 |
Total goals 3.5: over +120
, under -144 ![]()
Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 8:27 AM ET.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon preview
Real Sociedad hosts Lyon in Europa League play Thursday, with Real Sociedad a -125 moneyline favorite, Lyon +320 and the draw +310, and a 2.5 total. Real Sociedad sits 14th on 4 points with a 1-1-1 record and WDL form most recent first, including a 0-0-1 home mark. Lyon is 12th on 6 points with a 9-1-3 record and LWWLD form, and its away record is 1-0-1.
The prop board points to Corentin Tolisso over 0.5 shots on target at -111, which he cleared in 8 of his last 10, and Tyler Morton over 0.5 shots at -150, cleared in 7 of his last 10. Lyon’s listed absences include Openda, Ouedraogo and Sulc, while Real Sociedad lists Odriozola out with a knee injury. Both teams to score is priced yes -200 and no +143.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction
The books imply 60% / 21% / 19%
The model leans Real Sociedad, giving them 58% against Lyon’s 21%, with expected goals of 2.11 to 1.21 and a most likely 2-1 score. The books also make Real Sociedad favorite at 54%, though by a smaller margin. Real Sociedad’s 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match support the lean, while Lyon list Kango, Openda, Ouedraogo and Sulc as missing.
A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (3 and 13 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.
StatsBench picks
No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.
Top Real Sociedad vs Lyon player props
| Player | Prop | Best price | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Tolisso Olympique Lyonnais | Over 0.5 shots on target | -115 |
80% (8/10) | 80% |
| Kaïl Boudache Olympique Lyonnais | Over 1.5 fouls won | -150 |
80% (4/5) | 80% |
| Tyler Morton Olympique Lyonnais | Over 0.5 shots | -162 |
70% (7/10) | 40% |
| Ruben Kluivert Olympique Lyonnais | Over 0.5 shots | +163 |
66.7% (6/9) | 60% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico Olympique Lyonnais | Over 0.5 shots | -152 |
66.7% (6/9) | 40% |
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 8:27 AM ET.
Key matchups
From the predicted lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.
Kubo vs Abner
Kubo
AbnerGuedes vs Athekame
Guedes
AthekameGuedes has the clear foul-drawing edge, so his fouls won over 1.5 is the prop; Athekame has no posted lines to counter it.
Oyarzabal vs Kluivert and Mata
Oyarzabal
Kluivert
MataNo lines posted
With Oyarzabal unposted, Mata’s foul tendency gives the defender side the edge and points to his fouls committed over 0.5.
Sucic vs Kluivert and Mata
Sucic
Kluivert
MataBoudache vs Gomez
Boudache
GomezBoudache has the foul-drawing and shot-involvement edge, so his fouls won over 1.5 is the best-supported prop; Gomez has no posted lines.
Nakamura vs Zubeldia
Nakamura
ZubeldiaNakamura’s shot volume sits below the 2.5 line, so his shots on target over 0.5 is the more supported prop; Zubeldia has no posted lines.
Merah vs Sarr
Merah
SarrAffiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.
Predicted lineups
Predicted XIs; the official lineups post about an hour before kickoff and this page updates then. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.
Real Sociedad 4-4-2
Lyon 4-3-3
13 Marrero
5 Zubeldia
6 Martin
19 Sarr
17 Gomez
14 Kubo
4 Gorrotxategi
18 Soler
11 Guedes
10 Oyarzabal
24 Sucic
4/81 GreifSaves 3.5+
13 Athekame
6/921 KluivertShots 0.5+
22 Mata
16 Abner
99 Nartey
6 Tessmann
8/108 TolissoSOT 0.5+
4/526 BoudacheFouls won 1.5+
18 Merah
11 NakamuraReal Sociedad missing: L. Beitia (ankle), A. Odriozola (knee), A. Zakharyan (ankle)
Lyon missing: R. Himbert (inactive), S. Kango (concussion), T. Morton (groin), M. Niakhate (rest), E. Nuamah (injury), L. Openda (leg), M. Ouedraogo (knee), P. Sulc (knee)
Form and head to head
Real Sociedad14th in the tableWDL1W 1D 1L · 1.33 points a match
Lyon13th in the tableLWWLD9W 1D 3L · 2.15 points a matchClean sheets and goal trends
Real Sociedad
Clean sheet1/3
Failed to score0/3
Both scored2/3
Over 2.52/3
Lyon
Clean sheet5/13
Failed to score3/13
Both scored5/13
Over 2.56/13
Attack and defense
Attacking
- 2.7Scored per match1.9
- 12.3Shots per match12.1
- 4.7Shots on target per match5.1
- 0.0Big chances per match1.5
Defensive
- 1.0Conceded per match1.1
- 13.7Shots against per match11.2
- 13.7Tackles per match12.9
- 10.7Fouls per match9.5
Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.
Recent results
| Real Sociedad | WDL | W 6-0 at Lillestrom · D 1-1 at Union St. Gilloise · L 1-2 vs Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais | LWWLD | L 0-3 at 1899 Hoffenheim · W 3-2 vs Crystal Palace · W 2-1 at ADL · L 0-2 vs CEL · D 1-1 at CEL |
Last five Europa League results, most recent first.
Season numbers
| Real Sociedad | Olympique Lyonnais | |
|---|---|---|
| Table | 14 (4 pts) | 13 (6 pts) |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 9-1-3 |
| Home / away record | 0-0-1 (1-2) home | 1-0-1 (2-4) away |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.85 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Shots / on target per match | 12.33 / 4.67 | 12.08 / 5.08 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 39% |
| Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals | 100% / 67% / 33% | 85% / 46% / 23% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 39% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 23% |
| Yellow cards per match | 1.67 | 1.54 |
| Corners per match | 5.33 | 4.67 |
This season, 3 and 13 matches.
Injury report
No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 8:27 AM ET.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon odds by sportsbook
| Book | RSO ML | LYON ML | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -162 | +400 | O 3.5 +120 | U 3.5 -150 | |
| -161 | +350 | O 3 -127 | U 3 -104 | |
| -190 | +400 | O 3.5 +116 | U 3.5 -144 |
Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 8:27 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.
Line movement since we first listed this match (Wed 6:50 AM ET): total 2.5 → 3.5, Real Sociedad moneyline -125 → -161.
Goal lines and both teams to score
Both teams to score: yes -210, no +160
| Total goals | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | -800 | +520 |
| 2.5 | -220 | +176 |
| 3.5 | +118 | -144 |
| 4.5 | +270 | -355 |
Line movement chart
More on these teams: All Europa League predictions
Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · soccer player props guide · how parlays work
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