Senators vs Sabres Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 4, 2026)

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NHL prop picks: today's featured picks
Ottawa Senators logo

Senators9-7 · 6-10 ATS4th in the East
FINAL2 – 1
Buffalo Sabres logo

Sabres7-7 · 7-7 ATS9th in the East

NHL · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · KeyBank Center

Final score by period

Team 1 2 3 T
Senators 0 0 2 2
Sabres 0 1 0 1

How the bets settled

MoneylineSenators wonClosed at +110
SpreadSenators coveredSenators +1.5, by 2.5
TotalUnder 6.53 scored, 3.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 2-1 on November 4, with the game swinging in the third period after Buffalo took a 1-0 lead into the final frame. Peyton Krebs scored Buffalo’s goal and Tage Thompson had an assist. For Ottawa, Shane Pinto scored, Thomas Chabot had an assist and Michael Amadio recorded a point. Ottawa’s late push was supported by control in the faceoff circle, winning 69.8 percent, and by blocking 16 shots to Buffalo’s 11. The Senators also outshot Buffalo 30-25, while Buffalo finished with more takeaways.

Against the closing spread of Sabres -1.5, the Senators covered by 2.5. The game went under the closing total of 6.5 by 3.5.

How the props finished

5 of 12 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Drake Batherson Over 0.5 points -156 Kalshi 0 Missed
Zach Benson Over 0.5 points -138 Kalshi 1 Cleared
Hayden Hodgson Over 1.5 hits -204 Stake 2 Cleared
Olen Zellweger Over 1.5 shots on goal +100 DraftKings 1 Missed
Rasmus Dahlin Over 2.5 shots on goal -105 ESPN BET 1 Missed
Jack Quinn Over 0.5 points -150 Hard Rock 0 Missed
Tim Stützle Over 1.5 hits -156 Stake 0 Missed
Beck Malenstyn Over 2.5 hits -164 Stake 7 Cleared
Tage Thompson Over 0.5 points -212 Kalshi 1 Cleared
Jake Sanderson Over 0.5 assists +120 BetMGM 0 Missed
Josh Doan Over 1.5 shots on goal +100 DraftKings 3 Cleared
Dylan Cozens Over 2.5 hits -112 Stake 1 Missed

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

SabresSenators
The score margin against the closing spread (Sabres -1.5). Blue: Sabres covering. Orange: Senators covering.
+2.5Largest OTT cover
100%OTT covering
+0Largest BUF cover
0%BUF covering

Top performers

Senators

  • GoalsShane Pinto1
  • AssistsThomas Chabot1
  • PointsMichael Amadio1

Sabres

  • GoalsPeyton Krebs1
  • AssistsTage Thompson1
  • PointsPeyton Krebs1

Team stats

SenatorsSabres
30Shots24
69.8%Faceoffs won30.2%
0Power play goals0
23Hits24
16Blocked shots11
2Takeaways5
20Giveaways12
4Penalty minutes4

Box score

Ottawa SenatorsBuffalo Sabres

Ottawa Senators

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Michael Amadio RW 1 0 0 2 0 15:55 21 3 0 0 0 0 0.0
Drake Batherson RW 0 0 0 2 1 20:13 22 2 0 0 2 0 0.0
Sammy Blais LW 0 0 0 1 0 5:54 12 4 0 0 0 0 0.0
Nick Cousins C 0 0 0 2 0 13:19 20 3 0 0 0 0 0.0
Dylan Cozens C 0 0 0 0 0 16:11 19 1 1 0 3 0 90.9
Claude Giroux RW 0 0 0 3 0 16:17 21 0 0 0 2 0 100.0
Stephen Halliday C 0 0 0 0 0 10:28 17 3 0 0 2 0 37.5
Hayden Hodgson RW 0 0 0 1 0 4:47 10 2 0 0 1 0 0.0
Shane Pinto C 1 0 0 3 1 21:41 26 1 1 0 1 0 52.9
Tim Stutzle C 0 1 0 5 0 23:03 25 0 0 1 1 0 90.9
Philip Tomasino RW 0 1 0 4 1 14:44 20 0 0 0 1 0 0.0
Fabian Zetterlund LW 0 1 0 2 0 16:19 22 2 1 0 0 0 0.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Thomas Chabot D 0 1 0 1 1 24:18 28 0 4 0 2 0 0.0
Nikolas Matinpalo D 0 0 0 0 0 12:15 21 0 1 0 0 2 0.0
Jake Sanderson D 0 0 0 1 0 25:32 27 0 1 0 0 0 0.0
Jordan Spence D 0 0 0 0 1 21:57 28 1 3 0 3 2 0.0
Carter Yakemchuk D 0 0 0 2 0 12:57 21 0 1 1 0 0 0.0
Artem Zub D 0 0 0 1 0 20:58 29 1 3 0 2 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Samuel Ersson G 1 24 0 0 23 .958 20 2 1 59:12 0 0

Buffalo Sabres

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Zach Benson LW 0 1 0 3 1 20:16 22 1 1 0 3 0 0.0
Sam Carrick C 0 0 0 2 0 8:41 13 2 1 0 0 0 25.0
Josh Doan RW 0 0 0 3 -2 16:45 21 2 0 0 1 0 0.0
Tyson Kozak C 0 0 0 0 0 11:21 16 2 0 1 0 0 33.3
Peyton Krebs C 1 0 0 1 1 13:32 19 1 0 0 0 0 30.0
Beck Malenstyn LW 0 0 0 0 0 11:26 16 7 1 1 0 0 0.0
Ryan McLeod C 0 0 0 0 -1 13:16 18 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Josh Norris C 0 0 0 1 0 10:40 17 3 0 0 0 0 50.0
Noah Ostlund C 0 0 0 4 -1 21:27 21 0 1 0 1 0 20.0
Jack Quinn RW 0 0 0 1 -1 20:32 21 1 1 1 0 0 0.0
Tage Thompson C 0 1 0 2 1 19:34 22 0 0 0 1 0 33.3
Jason Zucker LW 0 0 0 1 -1 13:16 19 2 0 0 1 0 0.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Louis Crevier D 0 0 0 2 0 8:05 11 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Rasmus Dahlin D 0 0 0 1 0 24:23 28 1 0 1 1 2 0.0
Zach Metsa D 0 0 0 1 0 9:09 11 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Owen Power D 0 0 0 1 -1 26:27 28 1 0 1 3 2 0.0
Mattias Samuelsson D 0 0 0 0 0 24:57 26 1 5 0 1 0 0.0
Olen Zellweger D 0 0 0 1 -1 23:48 25 0 1 0 0 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Colten Ellis G 2 30 0 0 28 .933 23 5 0 58:25 0 0

Attendance 19,070 · Officials: Jonny Murray, Jon McIsaac, Chris Schlenker, Brandon Grillo

Recap: Amadio’s goal with just over 3 minutes remaining gives Senators a 2-1 win over the Sabres (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • Senators are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10.
  • Senators are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings with the Sabres.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Senators vs Sabres pre-game preview

The moneyline market lists Buffalo as a -125 favorite, with the Sabres laying 1.5 goals and the total at 6.5. The opening DraftKings line was the same on both counts.

The last meeting went to Ottawa, 4-1 at home on April 2, 2026, though the Senators are 3-7 in the last 10 head-to-heads and 3-2 ATS in those games. Ottawa is 9-7 overall and 6-10 ATS this season, with a 4-6 last 10 and 3-7 ATS mark; its most recent game was a 3-6 loss at Anaheim on November 1. Buffalo is 7-7 and 7-7 ATS, 5-5 in its last 10 with a 6-4 ATS record, and coming off a 3-2 win at Los Angeles on October 31.

The defensive ranks point to power-play points allowed as a useful split: Ottawa ranks 28th (2.88) and Buffalo 31st (3.43), while Buffalo also allows 9.57 points per game (28th). Pace is higher for Buffalo, 55.1 (13th) to Ottawa’s 52.8 (26th). On the prop side, Jack Quinn’s over 1.5 shots on goal at -265 cleared in 9 of his last 10.

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Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Senators 9-7 6-10 7-9 5-2 4-5
Sabres 7-7 7-7 8-6 3-3 4-4

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Senators vs Sabres head-to-head

Senators are 3-7, 3-2 ATS, O/U 3-2 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Senators won 4-1 on April 2, 2026.

Date Venue Senators result ATS O/U
Apr 2, 26 Senators home W 4-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Dec 23, 25 Senators home L 2-3 L -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 15, 25 Sabres home L 4-8 – –
Apr 1, 25 Senators home L 2-5 – –
Mar 25, 25 Sabres home L 2-3 – –
Jan 9, 25 Senators home L 0-4 – –
Nov 5, 24 Sabres home L 1-5 – –
Mar 27, 24 Sabres home W 6-2 W +1.5 O 5.5
Jan 11, 24 Sabres home L 3-5 L +1.5 O 5.5
Dec 31, 23 Senators home W 5-1 W -1.5 O 5.5

Recent form

Ottawa Senators: last 10 (4-6, 3-7 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 1, 26 @ ANA L 3-6 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ SJ W 5-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 29, 26 @ LA L 5-6 L -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 27, 26 @ VGK L 1-4 L +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 24, 26 vs NYR W 7-4 W -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 22, 26 vs SJ L 2-6 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 21, 26 vs FLA W 5-1 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 17, 26 @ PHI L 1-3 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 15, 26 vs NYI W 2-1 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 13, 26 vs STL L 2-7 L +1.5 O 5.5

Buffalo Sabres: last 10 (5-5, 6-4 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 31, 26 @ LA W 3-2 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 29, 26 @ ANA W 7-6 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 27, 26 @ SJ W 2-0 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 24, 26 @ WSH L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 21, 26 vs PHI L 1-3 L -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 17, 26 @ MTL L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 15, 26 @ TOR W 5-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 13, 26 @ MTL L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 12, 26 vs FLA W 5-3 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 10, 26 vs UTA L 1-4 L +1.5 U 6.5

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 1:17 AM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Senators defense Sabres defense
Goals allowed per game 3.19 (17th of 32) 3.43 (24th of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game 27.13 (15th of 32) 27.07 (13th of 32)
Points allowed per game 8.5 (16th of 32) 9.57 (28th of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game 2.88 (27th of 32) 3.43 (30th of 32)

Venue and weather

KeyBank Center · Buffalo, NYIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Senators vs Sabres odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Sabres spread -1.5 -1.5 –
Total 6.5 6.5 –
Senators moneyline +124 +110 +3% win chance
Sabres moneyline -148 -130 -3.2% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Sabres spread -1.5 → -1.5
Total 6.5 → 6.5
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More on these teams: Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks Nov 1 · Buffalo Sabres vs Los Angeles Kings Oct 31 · All NHL prop picks

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