| Result | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| +125 |
|
| Draw | +280 |
| +210 |
Total goals 2.5: over -150
, under +132 ![]()
Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 9:53 AM ET.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg preview
Toulouse hosts Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Friday, November 6, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET. Toulouse is the home favorite at +105, with the draw at +285 and Strasbourg at +235, while the total is 2.5. Both sides sit on 10 points from nine matches, Toulouse 12th and Strasbourg 13th.
The last meeting went Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse on May 3, 2026. Toulouse’s league form is LDWDW most recent first, and Strasbourg’s is WLLLL. Strasbourg has scored 1.89 and conceded 2.11 per match, with both teams scoring in 78% and over 2.5 in 89%, while Toulouse has scored 1.33 and conceded 1.44, with over 2.5 in 56%.
Injury notes include Joaquín Panichelli and Maximillian Oyedele out for Strasbourg, plus Rafik Messali out for Toulouse. A relevant prop angle is Cristian Cásseres Jr. over 2.5 tackles at -165, cleared in 8 of his last 10.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction
The books imply 43% / 26% / 31%
The model leans Toulouse at 42% to Strasbourg’s 35%, while the books imply a stronger Toulouse edge at 47% to 29%. Strasbourg’s WLLLL form and 2.11 goals conceded per match support the lean, with a 1-1 most likely score and both teams to score at 64%.
A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (9 and 9 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.
StatsBench picks
No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.
Top Toulouse vs Strasbourg player props
| Player | Prop | Best price | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. Toulouse | Over 2.5 tackles | -165 |
80% (8/10) | 80% |
| Conrad Harder Weibel Schandorf Strasbourg | Over 0.5 shots on target | -125 |
71.4% (5/7) | 80% |
| Y. Azizi Toulouse | Over 1.5 fouls | -145 |
66.7% (4/6) | 80% |
| Gessime Yassine Strasbourg | Over 0.5 shots on target | +110 |
60% (6/10) | 40% |
| Sebastian Nanasi Strasbourg | Over 0.5 shots on target | +100 |
60% (6/10) | 60% |
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 9:53 AM ET.
Key matchups
From the predicted lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.
Jorgensen vs Oso
Jorgensen
OsoNo lines posted
Oso’s low foul output gives him the cleaner defensive profile, and his fouls committed line has cleared 0 of 7, so the duel points away from fouls and cards.
Azizi vs Antwi
Azizi
AntwiNo lines posted
Antwi’s tackles line has cleared 6 of 8, so with Azizi unlined the duel points to Antwi’s tackle volume rather than a card.
Russell-Rowe vs Mitchell and Coulibaly
Russell-Rowe
Mitchell
CoulibalyRussell-Rowe’s fouls won line has cleared only 2 of 10, so with the centre-backs unlined the duel points away from that fouls-won prop.
Tengstedt vs Mitchell and Coulibaly
Tengstedt
Mitchell
CoulibalyTengstedt’s fouls won line has cleared 5 of 7, so with the centre-backs unlined the duel points to that prop more than his high shot line.
Yassine vs Tape
Yassine
TapeGodo vs Diallo
Godo
DialloHarder vs McKenzie and Nicolaisen
Harder
McKenzie
NicolaisenNo lines posted
Harder has no posted lines, but Nicolaisen’s fouls committed line has cleared 6 of 10, so the duel points more to Nicolaisen’s fouls than McKenzie’s higher fouls threshold.
Affiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.
Predicted lineups
Predicted XIs; the official lineups post about an hour before kickoff and this page updates then. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.
Toulouse 4-4-2
Strasbourg 4-3-3
16 Restes
94 Diallo
5/103 McKenzieFouls 1.5+
2 Nicolaisen
5/912 TapeFouls won 0.5+
8 Jorgensen
23 Casseres
3/614 SigurShots 0.5+
37 Azizi
13 Russell-Rowe
4/720 TengstedtGoal 0.5+
1 Jorgensen
16 Antwi
4 Mitchell
31 Coulibaly
36 Oso
4/714 EssugoShots 0.5+
29 El Mourabet
10 Reyna
6/1080 YassineSOT 0.5+
40 Harder
6/1020 GodoShots 1.5+Toulouse missing: M. Amougou (loan agreement), A. Donnum (yellow cards), R. Messali (thigh)
Strasbourg missing: F. Balde (leg), J. Panichelli (knee)
Form and head to head
Toulouse12th in the tableLDWDW2W 4D 3L · 1.11 points a match
Strasbourg13th in the tableWLLLL3W 1D 5L · 1.11 points a match- May 2026STR 1-2 TOU
- Dec 2025TOU 1-0 STR
- Mar 2025STR 2-1 TOU
- Jan 2025TOU 1-2 STR
Clean sheets and goal trends
Toulouse
Clean sheet2/9
Failed to score4/9
Both scored4/9
Over 2.55/9
Strasbourg
Clean sheet0/9
Failed to score2/9
Both scored7/9
Over 2.58/9
Attack and defense
Attacking
- 1.3Scored per match1.9
- 11.3Shots per match11.3
- 4.7Shots on target per match5.0
- 1.9Big chances per match1.3
Defensive
- 1.4Conceded per match2.1
- 12.3Shots against per match12.3
- 15.2Tackles per match17.4
- 15.8Fouls per match11.7
Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.
Recent results
| Toulouse | LDWDW | L 0-2 at OM · D 0-0 vs Troyes · W 3-0 at Le Mans · D 2-2 at ASM · W 3-2 vs LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | WLLLL | W 5-1 vs AUX · L 0-3 at REN · L 1-3 vs PSG · L 1-2 at NCE · L 1-2 at PFC |
Last five Ligue 1 results, most recent first.
Season numbers
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Table | 12 (10 pts) | 13 (10 pts) |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-4-3 | 3-1-5 |
| Home / away record | 1-1-2 (3-5) home | 1-0-4 (8-13) away |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.89 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.44 | 2.11 |
| Shots / on target per match | 11.33 / 4.67 | 11.33 / 5.00 |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals | 78% / 56% / 44% | 100% / 89% / 44% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 44% | 22% |
| Yellow cards per match | 2.00 | 1.56 |
| Corners per match | 4.05 | 2.83 |
This season, 9 and 9 matches.
Referee
Mathieu Vernice averages 3.7 yellow cards and 25.0 fouls per match over 10 matches this season (league average 3.4 and 24.6).
Injury report
Toulouse
- Rafik Messali (M): Out, Thigh Injury
Strasbourg
- Joaquín Panichelli (F): Out, Cruciate Ligament Injury
- Maximillian Oyedele (M): Out, Unknown
Toulouse vs Strasbourg odds by sportsbook
| Book | TOU ML | STR ML | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +120 | +200 | O 2.5 -150 | U 2.5 +120 | |
| +125 | +188 | O 2.75 -120 | U 2.75 -106 | |
| +120 | +210 | O 2.5 -150 | U 2.5 +120 | |
| +115 | +210 | O 2.5 -162 | U 2.5 +132 | |
| +120 | +200 | O 2.5 -175 | U 2.5 +125 |
Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 9:53 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.
Line movement since we first listed this match (Thu 8:58 AM ET): Toulouse moneyline +105 → +125.
Goal lines and both teams to score
Both teams to score: yes -180, no +140
| Total goals | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | -500 | +370 |
| 2.5 | -158 | +128 |
| 3.5 | +168 | -210 |
| 4.5 | +410 | -590 |
Line movement chart
More on these teams: Strasbourg vs AJ Auxerre Nov 1 · All Ligue 1 prop picks · All Ligue 1 predictions
Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · football player props guide · how parlays work
18+, or the legal age where you live. Research, not a guarantee: every bet can lose. Bet within your means; if gambling stops being fun, contact a local support service.
Today's NBA picks
Today's NFL picks
Today's NHL picks
Today's College Football picks
Today's EPL picks
Today's La Liga picks
Today's Serie A picks
Today's Bundesliga picks
Today's Ligue 1 picks
Today's MLS picks
Today's EFL Championship picks
Today's CS2 picks
Today's LoL picks
Today's Valorant picks
Today's Dota 2 picks