Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 28, 2026)

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Golden State Warriors logo

Warriors1-3 · 2-2 ATS7th in the West
FINAL119 – 114
Minnesota Timberwolves logo

Timberwolves3-1 · 4-0 ATS8th in the West

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Target Center

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Warriors 30 34 29 26 119
Timberwolves 23 25 33 33 114

How the bets settled

MoneylineWarriors wonClosed at +130
SpreadWarriors coveredWarriors +3.5, by 8.5
TotalOver 227.5233 scored, 5.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Golden State beat Minnesota 119-114 on October 28 by winning the first two quarters and then absorbing Minnesota’s second-half response. The Warriors led by as many as 24 before the Timberwolves cut into the gap, but the early cushion decided the game.

Stephen Curry led Golden State with 44 points and 6 assists. Minnesota’s leaders were Jonathan Kuminga with 20 points, LaMelo Ball with 8 assists and Joan Beringer with 10 rebounds. Both teams shot 44 percent from the field, but Golden State’s rebounding edge (53-42, including 13-7 on offensive boards), paint scoring (54-46) and free-throw shooting (81 percent to 70 percent) explained the result.

For bettors, the Timberwolves closed at -3.5, so the Warriors covered by 8.5. The closing total of 227.5 went over by 5.5.

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Against the spread, start to finish

TimberwolvesWarriors
The score margin against the closing spread (Timberwolves -3.5). Blue: Timberwolves covering. Orange: Warriors covering.
+27.5Largest GS cover
98%GS covering
+1.5Largest MIN cover
2%MIN covering

Win probability

TimberwolvesWarriors
Blue: Timberwolves favored. Orange: Warriors favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Warriors

  • PointsStephen Curry44
  • AssistsStephen Curry6
  • ReboundsYaxel Lendeborg9

Timberwolves

  • PointsJonathan Kuminga20
  • AssistsLaMelo Ball8
  • ReboundsJoan Beringer10

Team stats

WarriorsTimberwolves
44%FG%44%
31%3P%33%
81%FT%70%
53Rebounds42
25Assists31
54Points in the paint46
11Fast break points17
17Turnovers15
7Steals10
5Blocks2
24Biggest lead5

Box score

Golden State WarriorsMinnesota Timberwolves

Golden State Warriors

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Draymond Green F 32 3 1-3 0-0 1-2 9 6 3 0 2 2 7 5 +3
Georges Niang F 23 7 3-6 1-3 0-0 3 2 1 2 0 1 2 2 +5
Yaxel Lendeborg F 35 26 11-20 2-5 2-4 9 1 7 1 1 2 7 3 +2
Stephen Curry G 32 44 11-27 6-16 16-16 8 6 2 2 0 1 7 0 +10
Brandin Podziemski G 32 8 2-5 0-1 4-7 5 6 2 0 0 0 5 5 +3
Bench
Al Horford C 18 4 2-3 0-0 0-0 5 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 -2
Charles Bassey C 2 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +3
Gary Payton II G 10 2 1-2 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 +6
De’Anthony Melton G 20 8 2-7 2-4 2-2 6 0 1 1 1 2 4 2 +2
Brandon Williams G 14 11 4-11 0-4 3-4 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 -2
Will Richard G 23 6 2-5 0-2 2-2 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 -5
Graham Ike Did not play: Coach’s decision
Malevy Leons Did not play: Coach’s decision
Gui Santos Did not play: Left knee tendinitis
LJ Cryer Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 119 39-89 11-35 30-37 53 25 17 7 5 13 40 24

Team shooting: FG 44% · 3PT 31% · FT 81%

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Jaden McDaniels F 35 19 8-18 1-8 2-3 7 4 2 0 0 2 5 5 -11
Jonathan Kuminga F 32 20 7-15 3-6 3-5 3 5 0 2 0 1 2 2 -9
Rudy Gobert C 20 1 0-4 0-0 1-2 4 1 0 1 0 0 4 3 -11
Ayo Dosunmu G 32 17 6-12 3-7 2-2 3 4 0 4 0 0 3 5 -9
LaMelo Ball G 28 8 3-11 2-8 0-0 3 8 6 1 0 0 3 5 -2
Bench
Trey Lyles F 22 7 3-5 1-3 0-0 3 1 0 1 1 0 3 1 +7
Joan Beringer F 20 7 3-3 0-0 1-3 10 2 1 0 1 2 8 2 -5
Jaylen Clark G 7 3 1-2 1-2 0-0 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 +8
Terrence Shannon Jr. G 27 19 5-13 1-5 8-10 6 2 3 1 0 0 6 2 +7
Bones Hyland G 16 13 4-7 3-6 2-2 1 3 2 0 0 1 0 2 0
Cody Williams Did not play: Coach’s decision
Isaiah Evans Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 114 40-90 15-45 19-27 42 31 15 10 2 7 35 29

Team shooting: FG 44% · 3PT 33% · FT 70%

Attendance 16,588 · Officials: Curtis Blair, Andy Nagy, Ashley Moyer-Gleich

Recap: Curry scores 44 points as the Warriors hold on to beat the Timberwolves 119-114 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • Warriors are 0-4 ATS as favorites in their last 10 games.
  • Timberwolves have covered the spread in 6 straight games.
  • Timberwolves are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
  • Timberwolves are 3-0 ATS as favorites in their last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Warriors vs Timberwolves pre-game preview

The Wednesday night market lists Minnesota at -144 on the moneyline and -3.5 on the spread with a 225.5 total, down from an opening MIN -6.5 and 227.5. The last meeting was March 13, 2026, when Golden State lost 117-127 at home; in the last 10 head-to-head meetings Golden State is 4-6 straight up and 1-3 ATS.

Minnesota is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS this season, with a 6-4 and 7-3 ATS mark over its last 10; its most recent game was a 125-127 loss at Cleveland. Golden State is 1-3 and 2-2 ATS this season, 2-8 and 4-6 ATS over its last 10, and most recently won 134-114 at Denver.

The defensive ranks are the main statistical angle: Golden State allows 120.8 points (rank 21) while Minnesota allows 105 (rank 4), and Golden State also allows 29.8 assists (rank 29). StatsBench projections are the other: Draymond Green is projected at 8.3 assists against a 5.5 line, and Brandin Podziemski at 21.5 points against a 16.5 line.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 4 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry PG23.7 PTS · 2.3 REB · 2.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ DEN 26 24 3 3 3
10/23 vs MEM 29 24 2 4 3
10/21 @ LAL 21 23 2 1 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 23.7 (3) 23.5 (2) 26.5 (45) 32.5 (2)
26 · 39
REB 2.3 (3) 2.5 (2) 3.5 (45) 3.5 (2)
2 · 5
AST 2.7 (3) 2.0 (2) 4.7 (45) 6.0 (2)
7 · 5

Yaxel Lendeborg SF21.8 PTS · 9.3 REB · 4.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ DEN 30 31 12 6 1
10/24 @ PHX 36 26 9 5 6
10/23 vs MEM 37 18 13 6 1
10/21 @ LAL 28 12 3 2 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 21.8 (4) 23.0 (3) – –
REB 9.3 (4) 8.0 (3) – –
AST 4.8 (4) 4.3 (3) – –

Brandin Podziemski SG18.0 PTS · 4.5 REB · 4.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ DEN 32 18 7 5 3
10/23 vs MEM 32 18 2 3 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 18.0 (2) 18.0 (1) 14.0 (84) 12.8 (4)
25 · 12 · 12 · 2
REB 4.5 (2) 7.0 (1) 5.2 (84) 6.0 (4)
10 · 7 · 5 · 2
AST 4.0 (2) 5.0 (1) 3.6 (84) 4.0 (4)
2 · 4 · 6 · 4

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards SG33.3 PTS · 4.8 REB · 3.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ CLE 41 47 4 4 5
10/25 vs TOR 27 26 1 3 2
10/23 @ ORL 33 15 4 4 2
10/21 @ MIA 33 45 10 3 9
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 33.3 (4) 26.0 (1) 27.8 (71) 37.0 (2)
42 · 32
REB 4.8 (4) 1.0 (1) 5.1 (71) 9.5 (2)
8 · 11
AST 3.5 (4) 3.0 (1) 3.6 (71) 3.5 (2)
5 · 2

Jaden McDaniels SF15.0 PTS · 6.5 REB · 2.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ CLE 37 14 6 4 2
10/25 vs TOR 31 14 6 3 1
10/23 @ ORL 29 15 6 3 2
10/21 @ MIA 29 17 8 1 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 15.0 (4) 14.0 (1) 15.1 (85) 12.3 (4)
15 · 14 · 3 · 17
REB 6.5 (4) 6.0 (1) 4.5 (85) 3.0 (4)
1 · 3 · 3 · 5
AST 2.8 (4) 3.0 (1) 2.7 (85) 2.8 (4)
2 · 3 · 1 · 5

LaMelo Ball PG14.8 PTS · 2.0 REB · 6.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ CLE 30 11 0 6 1
10/25 vs TOR 16 15 1 8 4
10/23 @ ORL 23 12 5 5 2
10/21 @ MIA 29 21 2 6 5
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 14.8 (4) 15.0 (1) 20.2 (74) 15.0 (1)
15
REB 2.0 (4) 1.0 (1) 4.8 (74) 4.0 (1)
4
AST 6.3 (4) 8.0 (1) 7.1 (74) 2.0 (1)
2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Warriors 1-3 2-2 2-2 0-1 1-2
Timberwolves 3-1 4-0 1-3 1-0 2-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Warriors vs Timberwolves head-to-head

Warriors are 4-6, 1-3 ATS, O/U 2-2 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Warriors lost 117-127 on March 13, 2026.

Date Venue Warriors result ATS O/U
Mar 13, 26 Warriors home L 117-127 L +4.5 O 224.5
Jan 26, 26 Timberwolves home L 83-108 L +8.5 U 226.5
Jan 25, 26 Timberwolves home W 111-85 W +5.5 U 237.5
Dec 12, 25 Warriors home L 120-127 L -4.5 O 228.5
Jan 15, 25 Timberwolves home W 116-115 – –
Dec 21, 24 Timberwolves home W 113-103 – –
Dec 8, 24 Warriors home W 114-106 – –
Dec 6, 24 Warriors home L 90-107 – –
Mar 24, 24 Timberwolves home L 110-114 – –
Nov 14, 23 Warriors home L 101-104 – –

Recent form

Golden State Warriors: last 10 (2-8, 4-6 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 @ DEN W 134-114 W +6.5 O 236.5
Oct 24, 26 @ PHX L 122-131 W +9.5 O 221.5
Oct 23, 26 vs MEM L 108-111 L -4.5 U 236.5
Oct 21, 26 @ LAL L 105-127 L +6.5 U 233.5
Apr 12, 26 @ LAC L 110-115 L +3.5 U 229.5
Apr 10, 26 @ SAC L 118-124 L -10.5 O 228.5
Apr 9, 26 vs LAL L 103-119 L -1.5 U 222.5
Apr 7, 26 vs SAC W 110-105 L -14.5 U 233.5
Apr 5, 26 vs HOU L 116-117 W +3.5 O 227.5
Apr 2, 26 vs CLE L 111-118 W +10.5 U 230.5

Minnesota Timberwolves: last 10 (6-4, 7-3 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 @ CLE L 125-127 W +3.5 O 234.5
Oct 25, 26 vs TOR W 117-94 W -3.5 U 228.5
Oct 23, 26 @ ORL W 115-93 W +1.5 U 234.5
Oct 21, 26 @ MIA W 131-106 W +1.5 U 240.5
Apr 12, 26 vs NO W 132-126 W -3.5 O 239.5
Apr 10, 26 @ HOU W 136-132 W +9.5 O 227.5
Apr 8, 26 @ ORL L 120-132 L +11.5 O 233.5
Apr 7, 26 @ IND W 124-104 W -12.5 U 234.5
Apr 5, 26 vs CHA L 108-122 L +4.5 O 226.5
Apr 3, 26 @ PHI L 103-115 L +3.5 U 233.5

Injury report

Golden State Warriors

  • Kristaps Porzingis (C): Out, Not With Team
  • Jimmy Butler (SF): Out, Right ACL Repair / Surgery
  • Gui Santos (SF): Out, Left Knee Tendinitis
  • Moses Moody (SG): Out, Left Patellar Tendon Repair / Surgery

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Anthony Edwards (SG): Out, Right Knee Injury Management
  • Donte DiVincenzo (SG): Out, Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Warriors defense Timberwolves defense
Pace (possessions) 100.2 (29th) 103 (15th)

Venue and weather

Target Center · Minneapolis, MNIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Warriors vs Timberwolves odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Timberwolves spread -6.5 -3.5 +3
Total 227.5 227.5 –
Warriors moneyline +190 +130 +9% win chance
Timberwolves moneyline -230 -155 -8.9% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Timberwolves spread -3.5 → -3.5
Total 225.5 → 227.5
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More on these teams: Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors Oct 30 · LA Clippers vs Minnesota Timberwolves Oct 30 · Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Oct 26 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Cleveland Cavaliers Oct 26 · All NBA prop picks

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