Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 28, 2026)

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Oklahoma City Thunder logo

Thunder4-0 · 3-1 ATS5th in the West
FINAL96 – 120
Dallas Mavericks logo

Mavericks2-2 · 2-2 ATS9th in the West

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 9:30 PM ET · American Airlines Center

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Thunder 30 29 22 15 96
Mavericks 33 32 29 26 120

How the bets settled

MoneylineMavericks wonClosed at +160
SpreadMavericks coveredMavericks +4.5, by 28.5
TotalUnder 227.5216 scored, 11.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Dallas beat Oklahoma City 120-96 on October 28, pulling away after halftime by taking the third quarter 29-22 and the fourth 26-15. The game swung there, with the Mavericks’ largest lead reaching 27.

Cooper Flagg led Dallas with 26 points and 8 assists, while Daniel Gafford added 11 rebounds. Ajay Mitchell scored 29 for Oklahoma City, Isaiah Hartenstein grabbed 14 rebounds and Jared McCain had 4 assists. Dallas shot 47 percent from the field and 36 percent from three to Oklahoma City’s 41 and 16, and the Mavericks’ edge in assists (30-17), rebounds (49-43), fast-break points (17-0) and blocks (6-3) explained the separation.

For bettors, Dallas covered the closing 4.5-point spread by 28.5. The closing total of 227.5 settled under by 11.5.

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Against the spread, start to finish

MavericksThunder
The score margin against the closing spread (Mavericks +4.5). Blue: Mavericks covering. Orange: Thunder covering.
+0Largest OKC cover
0%OKC covering
+31.5Largest DAL cover
100%DAL covering

Win probability

MavericksThunder
Blue: Mavericks favored. Orange: Thunder favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Thunder

  • PointsAjay Mitchell29
  • AssistsJared McCain4
  • ReboundsIsaiah Hartenstein14

Mavericks

  • PointsCooper Flagg26
  • AssistsCooper Flagg8
  • ReboundsDaniel Gafford11

Team stats

ThunderMavericks
41%FG%47%
16%3P%36%
83%FT%80%
43Rebounds49
17Assists30
44Points in the paint42
0Fast break points17
14Turnovers11
4Steals4
3Blocks6
3Biggest lead27

Box score

Oklahoma City ThunderDallas Mavericks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Isaiah Hartenstein C 26 10 4-6 0-0 2-2 14 3 2 0 0 4 10 1 -12
Kenrich Williams G 17 7 3-7 1-3 0-0 3 0 1 0 0 2 1 3 -19
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 28 21 7-19 1-6 6-6 6 2 1 1 0 2 4 3 -21
Jared McCain G 29 10 3-13 0-6 4-5 4 4 3 0 0 1 3 2 -13
Ajay Mitchell G 28 29 12-20 2-5 3-3 4 3 2 2 1 0 4 1 +4
Bench
Jaylin Williams F 20 0 0-2 0-2 0-0 5 1 0 0 0 0 5 1 +3
Brooks Barnhizer F 14 3 1-3 0-1 1-3 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 -16
Aday Mara C 21 6 2-4 0-0 2-2 3 1 3 0 2 1 2 4 -8
Micah Peavy G 5 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4
Josh Dix G 24 2 1-8 0-6 0-0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 -20
Bennett Stirtz G 28 8 3-5 1-3 1-2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 -14
Total 96 36-87 5-32 19-23 43 17 13 4 3 12 31 19

Team shooting: FG 41% · 3PT 16% · FT 83%

Dallas Mavericks

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Daniel Gafford F 27 7 3-4 1-1 0-0 11 2 2 0 2 6 5 3 +14
P.J. Washington F 27 18 7-16 2-7 2-2 9 0 1 0 1 1 8 1 +2
Cooper Flagg F 33 26 10-23 2-8 4-4 5 8 0 0 0 0 5 1 +12
Kyrie Irving G 27 15 6-14 3-8 0-0 2 4 1 2 2 0 2 4 +25
Max Christie G 22 11 3-8 3-7 2-2 5 2 1 0 0 0 5 2 +14
Bench
Caleb Martin F 14 10 4-6 2-4 0-0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 +6
Morez Johnson Jr. F 18 10 4-6 0-0 2-2 6 3 1 0 0 2 4 3 +7
Tobi Lawal F 3 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Zaccharie Risacher F 29 13 5-6 2-3 1-2 6 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 +16
Moussa Cisse C 3 0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Marcus Sasser G 22 10 4-9 1-3 1-1 1 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 +13
Walter Clayton Jr. G 15 0 0-4 0-4 0-2 2 5 0 0 0 1 1 3 +11
Jett Howard G 3 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 120 46-97 16-45 12-15 49 30 9 4 6 15 34 20

Team shooting: FG 47% · 3PT 36% · FT 80%

Attendance 18,111 · Officials: James Williams, Marat Kogut, Brandon Adair

Recap: Cooper Flagg has 26 points, 8 assists as Mavericks beat depleted Thunder 120-96 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • Thunder are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
  • The under has hit in 3 straight Mavericks games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Thunder vs Mavericks pre-game preview

The market for Wednesday’s Thunder-Mavericks game lists Oklahoma City at -205 on the moneyline, Dallas at +188, Dallas +6.5 on the spread and a 229.5 total. Dallas’ recent form is 2-2 straight up and 2-2 against the spread this season, with a 4-6 mark and 5-5 ATS over its last 10; its most recent result was a 113-109 win at Miami. Oklahoma City is 4-0 and 3-1 ATS this season, 8-2 and 7-3 ATS over its last 10, and most recently beat Phoenix 125-114. The last meeting went to Oklahoma City 100-87 on March 1, 2026.

The clearest statistical angle is defense: Oklahoma City allows 100.8 points per game, first in the league, while Dallas allows 116, 18th. Dallas also allows 29.8 assists per game, 28th. StatsBench projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 1.4 blocks against a 0.5 line and Cooper Flagg at 1.2 against a 0.5 line; both cleared that line in 8 of their last 10.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 4 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG27.3 PTS · 4.3 REB · 3.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs PHX 30 26 3 3 1
10/25 vs LAC 36 34 6 5 1
10/22 vs DEN 34 17 2 3 3
10/20 @ SAS 36 32 6 4 3
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs DAL
PTS 27.3 (4) 32.0 (1) 30.5 (83) 28.7 (3)
30 · 33 · 23
REB 4.3 (4) 6.0 (1) 4.0 (83) 4.3 (3)
4 · 5 · 4
AST 3.8 (4) 4.0 (1) 6.8 (83) 6.3 (3)
5 · 6 · 8

Ajay Mitchell PG16.0 PTS · 3.3 REB · 3.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs PHX 25 30 2 5 1
10/25 vs LAC 27 18 6 4 1
10/22 vs DEN 23 12 0 0 0
10/20 @ SAS 22 4 5 6 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs DAL
PTS 16.0 (4) 4.0 (1) 13.8 (68) 13.0 (2)
9 · 17
REB 3.3 (4) 5.0 (1) 3.4 (68) 3.5 (2)
0 · 7
AST 3.8 (4) 6.0 (1) 3.7 (68) 1.5 (2)
2 · 1

Jalen Williams PF13.7 PTS · 4.7 REB · 3.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/25 vs LAC 31 8 2 5 0
10/22 vs DEN 33 21 5 3 2
10/20 @ SAS 29 12 7 2 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs DAL
PTS 13.7 (3) 12.0 (1) 16.7 (38) 15.0 (1)
15
REB 4.7 (3) 7.0 (1) 4.4 (38) 8.0 (1)
8
AST 3.3 (3) 2.0 (1) 5.1 (38) 5.0 (1)
5

Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg SF25.0 PTS · 5.3 REB · 6.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ MIA 39 29 6 11 2
10/23 @ IND 17 14 5 6 2
10/21 @ HOU 32 32 5 2 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 25.0 (3) – 21.0 (70) 9.0 (2)
16 · 2
REB 5.3 (3) – 6.7 (70) 2.0 (2)
2 · 2
AST 6.3 (3) – 4.5 (70) 1.0 (2)
2 · 0

Sergio De Larrea SF21.0 PTS · 5.0 REB · 4.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ MIA 5 0 1 0 0
10/24 vs SAS 33 21 5 4 3
10/21 @ HOU 6 0 2 1 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 7.0 (3) 21.0 (1) – –
REB 2.7 (3) 5.0 (1) – –
AST 1.7 (3) 4.0 (1) – –

Kyrie Irving PG19.0 PTS · 3.7 REB · 3.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ MIA 32 18 6 6 2
10/23 @ IND 24 24 1 3 5
10/21 @ HOU 23 15 4 2 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 19.0 (3) – – –
REB 3.7 (3) – – –
AST 3.7 (3) – – –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Thunder 4-0 3-1 1-3 3-0 1-0
Mavericks 2-2 2-2 1-3 0-1 2-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Thunder vs Mavericks head-to-head

Thunder are 6-4, 1-1 ATS, O/U 1-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Thunder won 100-87 on March 1, 2026.

Date Venue Thunder result ATS O/U
Mar 1, 26 Mavericks home W 100-87 L -16.5 U 236.5
Dec 5, 25 Thunder home W 132-111 W -15.5 O 229.5
Oct 27, 25 Mavericks home W 101-94 – –
Jan 23, 25 Thunder home L 115-121 – –
Jan 17, 25 Mavericks home L 98-106 – –
Dec 10, 24 Thunder home W 118-104 – –
Nov 17, 24 Thunder home L 119-121 – –
Apr 14, 24 Thunder home W 135-86 – –
Mar 14, 24 Thunder home W 126-119 – –
Feb 10, 24 Mavericks home L 111-146 – –

Recent form

Oklahoma City Thunder: last 10 (8-2, 7-3 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 vs PHX W 125-114 W -8.5 O 221.5
Oct 25, 26 vs LAC W 108-101 L -16.5 U 223.5
Oct 22, 26 vs DEN W 96-84 W -7.5 U 236.5
Oct 20, 26 @ SA W 116-104 W -1.5 U 229.5
Apr 12, 26 vs PHX L 103-135 L -7.5 O 213.5
Apr 10, 26 @ DEN L 107-127 L +2.5 O 223.5
Apr 8, 26 @ LAC W 128-110 W -8.5 O 223.5
Apr 7, 26 @ LAL W 123-87 W -17.5 U 221.5
Apr 5, 26 vs UTAH W 146-111 W -24.5 O 239.5
Apr 2, 26 vs LAL W 139-96 W -9.5 O 233.5

Dallas Mavericks: last 10 (4-6, 5-5 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 @ MIA W 113-109 W +7.5 U 240.5
Oct 24, 26 vs SA L 106-122 L +14.5 U 229.5
Oct 23, 26 @ IND W 121-105 W +7.5 U 241.5
Oct 21, 26 @ HOU L 110-128 L +9.5 O 230.5
Apr 12, 26 vs CHI W 149-128 W -5.5 O 249.5
Apr 10, 26 @ SA L 120-139 L +18.5 O 236.5
Apr 8, 26 @ PHX L 107-112 W +12.5 U 234.5
Apr 7, 26 @ LAC L 103-116 L +11.5 U 235.5
Apr 5, 26 vs LAL W 134-128 W +1.5 O 234.5
Apr 3, 26 vs ORL L 127-138 L +6.5 O 239.5

Injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Cason Wallace (SG): Out, Left Shoulder Labral Tear
  • Jalen Williams (PF): Out, Left Ankle Fracture
  • Chet Holmgren (C): Out, Right Knee Patellar Tendinitis
  • Thomas Sorber (C): Out, Right Knee Surgery
  • Nikola Topic (PG): Out, Low back surgery
  • Alex Caruso (SG): Out, Right Ankle Sprain

Dallas Mavericks

  • Santi Aldama (PF): Out, Right Knee Surgery
  • Dereck Lively II (C): Out, Right Foot Surgery
  • Tarik Biberovic (SF): Out, Right Heel Bursitis
  • Naji Marshall (SF): Out, Illness
  • Sergio De Larrea (SF): Out, Right Knee Sprain

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Thunder defense Mavericks defense
Pace (possessions) 101.8 (14th) 102.8 (10th)

Venue and weather

American Airlines Center · Dallas, TXIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Thunder vs Mavericks odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Mavericks spread +5.5 +4.5 -1
Total 230.5 227.5 -3
Thunder moneyline -205 -192 -1.5% win chance
Mavericks moneyline +170 +160 +1.4% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Mavericks spread +6.5 → +5.5
Total 229.5 → 228.5
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More on these teams: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Oct 31 · Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Oct 30 · Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Oct 26 · Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Oct 26 · All NBA prop picks

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