Rockets vs Bucks Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 28, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Houston Rockets logo

Rockets4-0 · 4-0 ATS1st in the West
FINAL132 – 100
Milwaukee Bucks logo

Bucks1-3 · 2-2 ATS14th in the East

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Fiserv Forum

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Rockets 23 34 38 37 132
Bucks 21 14 34 31 100

How the bets settled

MoneylineRockets wonClosed at -340
SpreadRockets coveredRockets -8.5, by 23.5
TotalOver 226.5232 scored, 5.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Houston beat Milwaukee 132-100, and the game was decided in the second quarter. The Rockets led by two after the first, then outscored the Bucks by 20 in the second to break it open and stayed in control.

Fred VanVleet led Houston with 24 points and 5 assists, while Tari Eason grabbed 9 rebounds. Milwaukee got 23 points from Tyler Herro, 6 assists from Kasparas Jakucionis and 8 rebounds from Kel’el Ware. Houston’s efficiency drove the result: it shot 55 percent from the field and 45 percent from three, compared with Milwaukee’s 40 and 29, and added 27 assists, 12 steals and 10 blocks.

For bettors, the Rockets covered the closing 8.5-point spread by 23.5, and the game went over the 226.5 total by 5.5.

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Against the spread, start to finish

BucksRockets
The score margin against the closing spread (Bucks +8.5). Blue: Bucks covering. Orange: Rockets covering.
+26.5Largest HOU cover
70%HOU covering
+11.5Largest MIL cover
30%MIL covering

Win probability

BucksRockets
Blue: Bucks favored. Orange: Rockets favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Rockets

  • PointsFred VanVleet24
  • AssistsFred VanVleet5
  • ReboundsTari Eason9

Bucks

  • PointsTyler Herro23
  • AssistsKasparas Jakucionis6
  • ReboundsKel’el Ware8

Team stats

RocketsBucks
55%FG%40%
45%3P%29%
88%FT%78%
44Rebounds41
27Assists19
48Points in the paint46
17Fast break points10
15Turnovers17
12Steals8
10Blocks3
35Biggest lead3

Box score

Houston RocketsMilwaukee Bucks

Houston Rockets

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Kevin Durant F 31 18 5-9 2-3 6-7 5 4 3 0 3 1 4 1 +6
Jabari Smith Jr. F 30 14 4-12 3-6 3-3 2 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 +23
Tari Eason F 31 5 2-6 1-3 0-0 9 1 3 1 3 1 8 4 +12
Fred VanVleet G 29 24 7-14 4-9 6-6 6 5 3 2 0 0 6 0 +19
Amen Thompson G 33 23 10-16 0-2 3-4 4 3 1 1 0 1 3 3 +13
Bench
Jae’Sean Tate F 4 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +5
Isaiah Crawford F 5 3 1-1 1-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 +8
Clint Capela C 22 10 5-6 0-0 0-0 8 2 2 3 2 3 5 5 +23
Oscar Tshiebwe C 14 7 3-3 0-0 1-2 5 2 1 1 1 1 4 0 +10
Bogdan Bogdanovic G 15 16 5-6 4-5 2-2 2 4 1 2 0 0 2 0 +23
Reed Sheppard G 23 7 2-9 1-8 2-2 3 4 0 1 0 1 2 1 +13
Bruce Thornton G 3 5 2-2 1-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +5
Alperen Sengun Did not play: Low back soreness
Marcus Smart Did not play: Left arm
Total 132 46-84 17-38 23-26 44 27 14 12 10 8 36 16

Team shooting: FG 55% · 3PT 45% · FT 88%

Milwaukee Bucks

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Kyle Kuzma F 18 4 2-6 0-2 0-0 6 1 1 1 0 2 4 1 -3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. F 27 19 7-13 3-6 2-2 4 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 -14
Myles Turner C 22 4 2-7 0-5 0-0 2 2 2 1 2 0 2 4 -2
Tyler Herro G 27 23 9-13 4-6 1-1 3 0 2 1 0 0 3 0 -12
Ryan Rollins G 17 4 2-14 0-3 0-0 4 5 1 1 0 1 3 1 -8
Bench
Ousmane Dieng F 13 4 2-5 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 -8
Nate Ament F 20 8 2-7 1-4 3-4 4 0 2 1 1 1 3 4 -11
Bogoljub Markovic F 5 2 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -9
Jericho Sims C 7 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +3
Kel’el Ware C 17 6 2-9 0-3 2-2 8 0 1 0 0 5 3 0 -31
Gary Trent Jr. G 7 3 1-3 1-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -11
AJ Green G 24 9 3-6 3-5 0-0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 -18
Brayden Burries G 17 10 3-6 0-2 4-5 6 1 2 1 0 3 3 1 -18
Kasparas Jakucionis G 19 4 1-3 0-2 2-4 2 6 3 0 0 0 2 3 -18
Caris LeVert Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 100 37-93 12-41 14-18 41 19 16 8 3 15 26 20

Team shooting: FG 40% · 3PT 29% · FT 78%

Attendance 12,232 · Officials: Brian Forte, Sean Corbin, Kastine Evans

Recap: Fred VanVleet and Amen Thompson lift undefeated Rockets past Bucks, 132-100 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • Rockets have covered the spread in 5 straight games.
  • Rockets are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10.
  • The over is 8-2 in Rockets’ last 10 games.
  • The over is 8-2 in Bucks’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Rockets vs Bucks pre-game preview

The Wednesday night matchup sends Houston to Milwaukee. The market lists Houston as a -295 moneyline favorite, Milwaukee at +265, Milwaukee +8.5 on the spread, and a 227.5 total that is unchanged from the DraftKings opener.

Houston is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread this season; its last 10 is 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 8-2 on the over/under, most recently a 120-110 win over Atlanta. Milwaukee is 1-3 straight up and 2-2 ATS; its last 10 is 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 8-2 on the over/under, most recently a 110-102 win over Indiana. The last meeting was April 1, 2026, a 119-113 Houston home win, and Houston is 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings.

Pace is one angle: Milwaukee ranks fifth at 106.5, while Houston ranks 22nd at 102. Houston’s frontcourt availability is another: Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams are out, and Marcus Smart is questionable. Among StatsBench props, Reed Sheppard over 0.5 steals is -300 after clearing in 10 of his last 10, with the model projecting 2.2, and Tari Eason over 16.5 points plus rebounds is +100 after clearing in 8 of 10, with the model projecting 24.3.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 4 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun C24.5 PTS · 9.0 REB · 7.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs ATL 37 29 9 9 1
10/24 @ ATL 32 17 10 7 1
10/23 @ SAS 35 29 7 7 2
10/21 vs DAL 29 23 10 5 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIL
PTS 24.5 (4) 23.0 (2) 20.4 (78) 24.0 (2)
25 · 23
REB 9.0 (4) 8.5 (2) 9.0 (78) 10.0 (2)
9 · 11
AST 7.0 (4) 7.0 (2) 6.1 (78) 5.5 (2)
4 · 7

Kevin Durant PF23.5 PTS · 6.5 REB · 3.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs ATL 29 22 9 3 1
10/24 @ ATL 36 22 4 2 3
10/23 @ SAS 36 20 7 6 2
10/21 vs DAL 37 30 6 3 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIL
PTS 23.5 (4) 21.0 (2) 25.9 (79) 25.0 (2)
19 · 31
REB 6.5 (4) 5.5 (2) 5.5 (79) 4.0 (2)
5 · 3
AST 3.5 (4) 4.0 (2) 4.8 (79) 8.0 (2)
9 · 7

Amen Thompson SF17.0 PTS · 9.0 REB · 4.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs ATL 27 15 5 2 0
10/24 @ ATL 39 17 11 6 0
10/23 @ SAS 36 20 10 4 1
10/21 vs DAL 33 16 10 4 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIL
PTS 17.0 (4) 18.5 (2) 18.3 (85) 16.0 (2)
18 · 14
REB 9.0 (4) 10.5 (2) 7.7 (85) 8.0 (2)
8 · 8
AST 4.0 (4) 5.0 (2) 5.3 (85) 5.5 (2)
6 · 5

Milwaukee Bucks

Tyler Herro SG23.5 PTS · 5.8 REB · 5.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs IND 32 23 10 7 3
10/24 @ PHI 31 13 6 3 1
10/23 vs CHI 31 34 5 4 5
10/21 @ WAS 31 24 2 9 4
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs HOU
PTS 23.5 (4) 28.5 (2) 20.6 (34) 25.0 (1)
25
REB 5.8 (4) 7.5 (2) 4.7 (34) 6.0 (1)
6
AST 5.8 (4) 5.5 (2) 4.2 (34) 4.0 (1)
4

Jaime Jaquez Jr. SF17.5 PTS · 8.0 REB · 2.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs IND 24 8 6 0 0
10/24 @ PHI 27 21 8 4 2
10/23 vs CHI 35 19 11 5 2
10/21 @ WAS 31 22 7 2 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs HOU
PTS 17.5 (4) 13.5 (2) 15.3 (76) –
REB 8.0 (4) 8.5 (2) 5.0 (76) –
AST 2.8 (4) 2.5 (2) 4.7 (76) –

Ryan Rollins SG13.5 PTS · 4.8 REB · 4.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs IND 31 19 2 4 3
10/24 @ PHI 25 15 4 4 2
10/23 vs CHI 33 11 7 6 2
10/21 @ WAS 23 9 6 3 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs HOU
PTS 13.5 (4) 15.0 (2) 17.3 (74) 19.0 (1)
19
REB 4.8 (4) 4.5 (2) 4.6 (74) 2.0 (1)
2
AST 4.3 (4) 5.0 (2) 5.6 (74) 5.0 (1)
5

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Rockets 4-0 4-0 3-1 2-0 2-0
Bucks 1-3 2-2 3-1 1-1 0-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Rockets vs Bucks head-to-head

Rockets are 4-2, 0-1 ATS, O/U 1-0 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Rockets won 119-113 on April 1, 2026.

Date Venue Rockets result ATS O/U
Apr 1, 26 Rockets home W 119-113 L -19.5 O 216.5
Nov 9, 25 Bucks home W 122-115 – –
Feb 25, 25 Rockets home W 100-97 – –
Nov 18, 24 Bucks home L 100-101 – –
Jan 6, 24 Rockets home W 112-108 – –
Dec 17, 23 Bucks home L 119-128 – –

Recent form

Houston Rockets: last 10 (9-1, 8-2 ATS, O/U 8-2)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 vs ATL W 120-110 W -4.5 O 228.5
Oct 24, 26 @ ATL W 121-114 W -1.5 O 227.5
Oct 23, 26 @ SA W 114-110 W +4.5 U 224.5
Oct 21, 26 vs DAL W 128-110 W -9.5 O 230.5
Apr 12, 26 vs MEM W 132-101 W -14.5 O 230.5
Apr 10, 26 vs MIN L 132-136 L -9.5 O 227.5
Apr 9, 26 vs PHI W 113-102 W -6.5 U 226.5
Apr 7, 26 @ PHX W 119-105 W -1.5 O 221.5
Apr 5, 26 @ GS W 117-116 L -3.5 O 227.5
Apr 3, 26 vs UTAH W 140-106 W -18.5 O 231.5

Milwaukee Bucks: last 10 (3-7, 4-6 ATS, O/U 8-2)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 vs IND W 110-102 W +3.5 U 239.5
Oct 24, 26 @ PHI L 116-127 W +12.5 O 234.5
Oct 23, 26 vs CHI L 125-132 L -1.5 O 241.5
Oct 21, 26 @ WSH L 116-128 L +4.5 O 239.5
Apr 12, 26 @ PHI L 106-126 L +16.5 O 225.5
Apr 10, 26 vs BKN W 125-108 W -10.5 O 218.5
Apr 8, 26 @ DET L 111-137 L +22.5 O 222.5
Apr 7, 26 @ BKN L 90-96 L -1.5 U 218.5
Apr 5, 26 vs MEM W 131-115 W -7.5 O 230.5
Apr 3, 26 vs BOS L 101-133 L +17.5 O 217.5

Injury report

Houston Rockets

  • Steven Adams (C): Out, Right Soleus Strain
  • Marcus Smart (SG): Out, Left Forearm Strain
  • Quadir Copeland (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Julian Phillips (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Alperen Sengun (C): Out, Low Back Soreness

Milwaukee Bucks: none listed.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Rockets defense Bucks defense
Pace (possessions) 102 (21st) 106.5 (5th)

Venue and weather

Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee, WIIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Rockets vs Bucks odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Bucks spread +8.5 +8.5 –
Total 227.5 226.5 -1
Rockets moneyline -310 -340 +1.7% win chance
Bucks moneyline +250 +270 -1.5% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Bucks spread +8.5 → +8.5
Total 227.5 → 227.5
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More on these teams: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks Oct 31 · Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Oct 30 · Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets Oct 26 · Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Oct 26 · All NBA prop picks

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