Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 1, 2026)

Kansas City Chiefs logo

Chiefs5-1 · 3-3 ATS5th in the AFC
FINAL24 – 28
Denver Broncos logo

Broncos5-2 · 5-2 ATS2nd in the AFC

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Chiefs 7 10 7 0 24
Broncos 3 10 0 15 28

How the bets settled

MoneylineBroncos wonClosed at -115
SpreadBroncos coveredBroncos -1.5, by 2.5
TotalOver 41.552 scored, 10.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Denver beat Kansas City 28-24, with the game decided in the fourth quarter when the Broncos outscored the Chiefs 15-0 after trailing entering the period. Bo Nix threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns, while Jonah Coleman contributed 41 rushing yards and a score plus 63 receiving yards. Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns, and Emmett Johnson had 128 receiving yards and a touchdown, but Kansas City’s 11 penalties for 105 yards and 2-of-3 red-zone conversion rate helped leave the door open. Denver went 3-for-3 in the red zone and 2-for-2 on fourth down despite being outgained 399-294. For bettors, Denver covered the closing 1.5-point spread by 2.5, and the 41.5 total went over by 10.5.

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Against the spread, start to finish

BroncosChiefs
The score margin against the closing spread (Broncos -1.5). Blue: Broncos covering. Orange: Chiefs covering.
+12.5Largest KC cover
91%KC covering
+2.5Largest DEN cover
9%DEN covering

Win probability

BroncosChiefs
Blue: Broncos favored. Orange: Chiefs favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Chiefs

  • Passing YardsPatrick Mahomes30/41, 321 YDS, 3 TD
  • Rushing YardsKenneth Walker III21 CAR, 69 YDS
  • Receiving YardsEmmett Johnson5 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
  • SacksGeorge Karlaftis1
  • TacklesNick Bolton9

Broncos

  • Passing YardsBo Nix20/32, 222 YDS, 2 TD
  • Rushing YardsJonah Coleman11 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
  • Receiving YardsJonah Coleman4 REC, 63 YDS
  • SacksAlex Singleton1
  • TacklesAlex Singleton14

Team stats

ChiefsBroncos
399Total yards294
309Passing yards217
90Rushing yards77
6.0Yards per play5.2
22First downs21
6-14Third downs2-11
2-3Red zone3-3
0Turnovers0
11-105Penalties6-45
31:29Possession28:31

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS QBR RTG
Patrick Mahomes 30/41 321 7.8 3 0 2-12 71.0 120.1
Total 30/41 309 7.8 3 0 2-12 — 120.1

Rushing

Player CAR YDS AVG TD LONG
Kenneth Walker III 21 69 3.3 0 10
Emmett Johnson 1 15 15.0 0 15
Patrick Mahomes 2 6 3.0 0 4
Total 24 90 3.8 0 15

Receiving

Player REC YDS AVG TD LONG TGTS
Emmett Johnson 5 128 25.6 1 73 5
Travis Kelce 5 67 13.4 0 32 7
Rashee Rice 7 53 7.6 1 12 8
Cyrus Allen 2 20 10.0 0 12 3
Noah Gray 2 15 7.5 1 11 2
Kenneth Walker III 4 15 3.8 0 8 5
Xavier Worthy 3 13 4.3 0 7 6
Jake Briningstool 1 6 6.0 0 6 1
Jalen Royals 1 4 4.0 0 4 1
Total 30 321 10.7 3 73 38

Defense

Player TOT SOLO SACKS TFL PD QB HTS TD
Nick Bolton 9 5 0 0 0 1 0
Alohi Gilman 6 2 0 0 0 0 0
Drue Tranquill 5 4 0 0 0 0 0
Chamarri Conner 5 3 0 0 0 0 0
Chris Roland-Wallace 5 3 0 0 1 0 0
Jack Cochrane 4 1 0 0 0 0 0
Nohl Williams 4 1 0 0 0 0 0
Kristian Fulton 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Felix Anudike-Uzomah 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
George Karlaftis 2 2 1 1 3 1 0
Khyiris Tonga 2 2 0 0 1 0 0
Ashton Gillotte 2 2 0 1 0 0 0
Jadon Canady 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
Jeffrey Bassa 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Jaden Hicks 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Cooper McDonald 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Armstrong 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Jaydn Ott 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Emmett Johnson 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
R Mason Thomas 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Total 61 34 1 2 6 2 0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS QBR RTG
Bo Nix 20/32 222 6.9 2 0 1-5 70.9 103.9
Total 20/32 217 6.9 2 0 1-5 — 103.9

Rushing

Player CAR YDS AVG TD LONG
Jonah Coleman 11 41 3.7 1 10
Marvin Mims Jr. 2 19 9.5 0 14
J.K. Dobbins 7 13 1.9 0 6
Bo Nix 3 4 1.3 0 5
Total 23 77 3.3 1 14

Receiving

Player REC YDS AVG TD LONG TGTS
Jonah Coleman 4 63 15.8 0 51 5
Courtland Sutton 4 53 13.3 0 23 4
Jaylen Waddle 3 39 13.0 1 35 6
Adam Trautman 2 30 15.0 0 22 2
Adam Prentice 1 10 10.0 0 10 1
Lil’Jordan Humphrey 1 10 10.0 0 10 1
Marvin Mims Jr. 2 10 5.0 0 7 3
Nate Adkins 2 4 2.0 1 2 2
Troy Franklin 1 3 3.0 0 3 2
Evan Engram 0 0 0.0 0 0 3
Total 20 222 11.1 2 51 29

Defense

Player TOT SOLO SACKS TFL PD QB HTS TD
Alex Singleton 14 6 1 1 1 1 0
Pat Surtain II 8 7 0 0 1 0 0
Devon Key 8 5 0 1 1 0 0
Taylor Rapp 6 2 0 0 0 0 0
Malcolm Roach 4 3 1 1 0 1 0
Riley Moss 4 3 0 0 1 0 0
Ja’Quan McMillian 4 1 0 0 0 1 0
Brandon Jones 3 3 0 0 0 0 0
Jonathon Cooper 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
Sai’vion Jones 3 1 0 0 0 1 0
Justin Strnad 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
Tycen Anderson 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
D.J. Jones 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
JL Skinner 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Que Robinson 2 1 0 0 0 1 0
Eyioma Uwazurike 2 0 0 0 0 1 0
Nik Bonitto 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
Kris Abrams-Draine 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Karene Reid 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Zach Allen 1 0 0 0 1 3 0
Nate Adkins 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jordan Turner 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dondrea Tillman 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Total 76 42 2 3 6 10 0

Attendance 76,831 · Officials: Clete Blakeman, James Coleman, Kent Payne, Jonah Monroe, Karina Tovar, Scott Walker, Andy Warner

Recap: On fourth-and-goal, Roach drops Mahomes and flips the AFC West race as Broncos beat Chiefs 28-24 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Chiefs vs Broncos pre-game preview

Kansas City visits Denver with the market favoring Kansas City at -118 on the moneyline, while Denver is +1.5 on the spread and the total sits at 40.5. The opener was Denver -1.5 with a 43.5 total, so both the side and total have moved.

The last meeting was Sept. 14, 2026, a 31-10 Kansas City home win. Kansas City is 5-1 and 3-3 ATS this season and most recently lost 3-20 at Seattle; Denver is 5-2 and 5-2 ATS and most recently won 30-16 at Arizona. Over the last 10, Kansas City is 5-5 and 4-6 ATS, while Denver is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS. In the last seven meetings, Kansas City is 3-4 straight up and 2-0 ATS.

The defensive ranks offer a useful angle: Kansas City allows 17.2 points per game, rank 2 of 32, while Denver allows 133.3 rushing yards per game, rank 28 of 32. Denver also lists Talanoa Hufanga out. On the props side, J.K. Dobbins over 28.5 rushing yards at -110 has cleared in 9 of his last 10, and RJ Harvey over 10.5 longest reception at -125 has cleared in 9 of 10 and 100% versus this opponent.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes QB256.7 pass yds · 1.6 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
10/26 @ SEA 19/33 165 0 1 14
10/18 vs LAC 23/30 272 0 1 16
10/4 @ LV 15/30 225 2 0 0
9/27 @ MIA 20/24 246 2 1 1
9/21 vs IND 32/47 382 3 0 17
Splits Season Road 2025 vs DEN
Pass yds 245.7 (6) 212.0 (3) 256.2 (14) 230.0 (2)
184 · 276
Pass TD 1.5 (6) 1.3 (3) 1.6 (14) 1.5 (2)
2 · 1

Kenneth Walker III RB92.1 rush yds · 2.8 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
10/26 @ SEA 14 36 0 4 21
10/18 vs LAC 19 128 2 2 11
10/4 @ LV 22 177 2 1 2
9/27 @ MIA 18 70 1 2 3
9/21 vs IND 24 117 0 6 61
Splits Season Road 2025 vs DEN
Rush yds 116.8 (6) 94.3 (3) 67.0 (20) 173.0 (1)
173
Rec 3.0 (6) 2.3 (3) 2.0 (20) 3.0 (1)
3

Rashee Rice WR5.2 rec · 61.4 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/4 @ LV 0 0 0 0
9/27 @ MIA 9 7 88 0
9/21 vs IND 6 4 83 0
9/15 vs DEN 2 2 19 1
Splits Season Road 2025 vs DEN
Rec 3.3 (4) 3.5 (2) 6.6 (8) 4.0 (2)
2 · 6
Rec yds 47.5 (4) 44.0 (2) 71.4 (8) 28.5 (2)
19 · 38

Travis Kelce TE4.2 rec · 52.1 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/26 @ SEA 8 4 44 0
10/18 vs LAC 5 4 53 0
10/4 @ LV 4 2 15 0
9/27 @ MIA 2 2 59 1
9/21 vs IND 11 9 101 1
Splits Season Road 2025 vs DEN
Rec 4.0 (6) 2.7 (3) 4.5 (17) 5.7 (3)
3 · 5 · 9
Rec yds 57.2 (6) 39.3 (3) 50.1 (17) 66.0 (3)
71 · 36 · 91

Denver Broncos

Bo Nix QB211.1 pass yds · 1.2 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
10/25 @ ARI 15/29 222 1 0 73
10/16 vs SEA 17/27 107 0 0 2
10/11 @ LAC 16/27 123 1 0 10
10/4 @ SF 25/42 214 1 0 10
9/28 vs LAR 17/34 186 2 1 7
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Pass yds 181.6 (7) 193.7 (3) 233.9 (18) 202.7 (3)
131 · 182 · 295
Pass TD 1.0 (7) 1.0 (3) 1.6 (18) 0.7 (3)
1 · 1 · 0

J.K. Dobbins RB59.5 rush yds · 1.1 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
10/25 @ ARI 6 23 1 0 0
10/16 vs SEA 17 41 1 3 5
10/11 @ LAC 18 68 1 2 6
10/4 @ SF 11 40 0 2 12
9/28 vs LAR 17 49 0 1 4
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Rush yds 41.9 (7) 42.0 (3) 77.2 (10) 36.0 (1)
36
Rec 1.1 (7) 1.3 (3) 1.1 (10) 0.0 (1)
0

Jaylen Waddle WR3.6 rec · 45.7 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/25 @ ARI 7 4 48 0
10/16 vs SEA 7 4 24 0
10/11 @ LAC 5 2 19 0
10/4 @ SF 6 5 35 1
9/28 vs LAR 7 2 10 0
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Rec 3.7 (7) 4.7 (3) 4.0 (16) 1.0 (1)
1
Rec yds 39.4 (7) 57.3 (3) 56.9 (16) 2.0 (1)
2

Courtland Sutton WR3.3 rec · 38.1 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/25 @ ARI 5 3 45 0
10/16 vs SEA 3 2 19 0
10/11 @ LAC 3 2 18 1
10/4 @ SF 6 1 4 0
9/28 vs LAR 7 3 46 0
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Rec 2.3 (7) 2.7 (3) 4.3 (19) 3.3 (3)
2 · 4 · 4
Rec yds 24.0 (7) 30.0 (3) 57.2 (19) 36.7 (3)
11 · 40 · 59

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Chiefs 5-1 3-3 2-4 3-0 2-1
Broncos 5-2 5-2 2-5 3-0 2-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Chiefs vs Broncos head-to-head

Chiefs are 3-4, 2-0 ATS, O/U 0-2 in the last 7 meetings. Last time: Chiefs won 31-10 on September 14, 2026.

Date Venue Chiefs result ATS O/U
Sep 14, 26 Chiefs home W 31-10 W -2.5 U 42.5
Dec 25, 25 Chiefs home L 13-20 W +13.5 U 37.5
Nov 16, 25 Broncos home L 19-22 – –
Jan 5, 25 Broncos home L 0-38 – –
Nov 10, 24 Chiefs home W 16-14 – –
Oct 29, 23 Broncos home L 9-24 – –
Oct 12, 23 Chiefs home W 19-8 – –

Recent form

Kansas City Chiefs: last 10 (5-5, 4-6 ATS, O/U 2-8)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 25, 26 @ SEA L 3-20 L +3 U 43.5
Oct 18, 26 vs LAC W 22-6 W -7.5 U 41.5
Oct 4, 26 @ LV W 30-27 L -3.5 O 47.5
Sep 27, 26 @ MIA W 24-10 W -10 U 45.5
Sep 20, 26 vs IND W 33-30 L -6 O 46.5
Sep 14, 26 vs DEN W 31-10 W -2.5 U 42.5
Jan 4, 26 @ LV L 12-14 L -3.5 U 35.5
Dec 25, 25 vs DEN L 13-20 W +13.5 U 37.5
Dec 21, 25 @ TEN L 9-26 L -3.5 U 37.5
Dec 14, 25 vs LAC L 13-16 L -5.5 U 41.5

Denver Broncos: last 10 (7-3, 6-4 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 25, 26 @ ARI W 30-16 W -4.5 O 44.5
Oct 15, 26 vs SEA W 17-14 W +3 U 40.5
Oct 11, 26 @ LAC W 23-17 W -3 U 42.5
Oct 4, 26 @ SF L 14-24 L +3 U 48.5
Sep 27, 26 vs LAR W 30-26 W -1.5 O 44.5
Sep 20, 26 vs JAX W 20-13 W -2.5 U 45.5
Sep 14, 26 @ KC L 10-31 L +2.5 U 42.5
Jan 4, 26 vs LAC W 19-3 W -15.5 U 37.5
Dec 25, 25 @ KC W 20-13 L -13.5 U 37.5
Dec 21, 25 vs JAX L 20-34 L -3.5 O 46.5

Injury report

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Omarr Norman-Lott (DT): PUP-R, The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott
  • Ethan Downs (LB): IR, The Chiefs placed
  • John Michael Gyllenborg (TE): IR
  • Jimmy Holiday (WR): IR, Holiday
  • Josh Simmons (OT): IR, The Chiefs placed Simmons
  • Matt Waletzko (OT): IR, Waletzko
  • Tyquan Thornton (WR): IR, The Chiefs placed Thornton
  • Mansoor Delane (CB): Out
  • Diego Pounds (OT): Out
  • Ben VanSumeren (FB): Out
  • Tyreke Smith (DE): Out
  • Jeff Caldwell (WR): IR, Caldwell
  • Brashard Smith (RB): IR, The Chiefs placed Smith
  • L’Jarius Sneed (CB): IR, The Chiefs placed Sneed
  • Garrett Nussmeier (QB): Out

Denver Broncos

  • Caleb Lohner (TE): IR-R, Lohner
  • Nick Gargiulo (G): PUP-R, Gargiulo
  • Michael Deiter (C): IR, ir
  • Matt Henningsen (DE): IR, ir
  • Levelle Bailey (LB): IR, Bailey
  • Frank Crum (OT): IR-R, Crum
  • Pat Bryant (WR): IR, Bryant
  • Talanoa Hufanga (S): Out, inactive
  • Tyler Badie (RB): IR, The Broncos placed Badie
  • Jonah Elliss (LB): IR, The Broncos placed Elliss
  • RJ Harvey (RB): IR, The Broncos placed Harvey
  • Dallen Bentley (TE): Out, inactive
  • Kage Casey (OT): Out, inactive
  • Gavin Ortega (OT): Out, inactive
  • Tyler Onyedim (DT): Out, inactive
  • Sam Ehlinger (QB): Out, inactive
  • Jordan Jackson (DT): Out, inactive

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Chiefs defense Broncos defense
Points allowed per game 18.7 (4th of 32) 20.6 (10th of 32)
Passing yards allowed per game 228.4 (12th of 32) 246.6 (22nd of 32)
Rushing yards allowed per game 96.3 (9th of 32) 127.9 (25th of 32)
Receptions allowed per game 21.7 (17th of 32) 22.4 (21st of 32)

Venue and weather

Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, COOutdoor
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Chiefs vs Broncos odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Broncos spread -1.5 -1.5 –
Total 43.5 41.5 -2
Chiefs moneyline -102 -105 +0.7% win chance
Broncos moneyline -118 -115 -0.6% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Broncos spread +1.5 → -1.5
Total 40.5 → 41.5
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More on these teams: Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks Oct 25 · Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals Oct 25 · All NFL prop picks

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