Bucks vs Celtics Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 4, 2026)

Milwaukee Bucks logo

Bucks1-6 · 2-5 ATS15th in the East
FINAL102 – 109
Boston Celtics logo

Celtics5-2 · 3-3 ATS3rd in the East

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · TD Garden

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Bucks 14 27 38 23 102
Celtics 28 34 25 22 109

How the bets settled

MoneylineCeltics wonClosed at -567
SpreadBucks coveredBucks +12.5, by 5.5
TotalUnder 222.5211 scored, 11.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

The Celtics beat the Bucks 109-102 on November 4, taking control in the first half. Boston set the tone with a 28-14 first quarter and a 34-point second, building a lead that reached 22. Milwaukee’s push came in the third, but the game never fully turned.

Paul George led Boston with 25 points, Derrick White had 7 assists and Neemias Queta grabbed 12 rebounds. Tyler Herro matched George with 25 for Milwaukee, while Myles Turner had 6 assists and Ryan Rollins 9 rebounds. Boston’s edge came on the glass, especially 19-11 on offensive rebounds, plus a free-throw percentage advantage, which helped offset even field-goal percentages.

For bettors, Boston won but did not cover the closing -12.5 spread. Milwaukee covered by 5.5. The game landed under the closing total of 222.5 by 11.5.

How the props finished

7 of 11 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Kyle Kuzma Over 1.5 assists -170 Kalshi 4 Cleared
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 0.5 threes made -220 bet365 4 Cleared
Ryan Rollins Over 6.5 rebounds + assists +109 prophetexchange 14 Cleared
A.J. Green Over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists +100 Cloudbet 10 Cleared
Myles Turner Over 1.5 blocks +100 Fanatics 2 Cleared
Tyler Herro Over 2.5 threes made -113 Kalshi 4 Cleared
Kasparas Jakučionis Over 5.5 rebounds + assists -135 DraftKings 2 Missed
Brayden Burries Over 0.5 threes made -212 Kalshi 0 Missed
Kel’el Ware Over 7.5 rebounds +113 Kalshi 5 Missed
Paul George Over 1.5 steals -114 FanDuel 4 Cleared
Sam Hauser Over 2.5 rebounds -150 Fanatics 2 Missed

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.

Against the spread, start to finish

CelticsBucks
The score margin against the closing spread (Celtics -12.5). Blue: Celtics covering. Orange: Bucks covering.
+13.5Largest MIL cover
53%MIL covering
+9.5Largest BOS cover
47%BOS covering

Win probability

CelticsBucks
Blue: Celtics favored. Orange: Bucks favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Bucks

  • PointsTyler Herro25
  • AssistsMyles Turner6
  • ReboundsRyan Rollins9

Celtics

  • PointsPaul George25
  • AssistsDerrick White7
  • ReboundsNeemias Queta12

Team stats

BucksCeltics
41%FG%41%
40%3P%41%
68%FT%76%
45Rebounds54
28Assists24
30Points in the paint34
13Fast break points9
15Turnovers12
6Steals8
4Blocks6
1Biggest lead22

Box score

Milwaukee Bucks

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Kyle Kuzma F 27 6 2-5 1-3 1-2 5 4 3 1 0 2 3 1 -8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. F 31 18 7-16 4-6 0-2 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 -3
Myles Turner C 36 12 4-6 4-6 0-0 9 6 1 2 2 0 9 3 -1
Tyler Herro G 33 25 8-17 4-10 5-5 5 3 1 0 0 0 5 0 -8
Brayden Burries G 22 9 3-7 0-3 3-4 5 3 3 1 0 3 2 2 +5
Bench
Ousmane Dieng F 2 0 0-2 0-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
Nate Ament F 18 9 3-9 2-6 1-2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 +5
Jericho Sims C 1 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
Kel’el Ware C 16 2 1-6 0-2 0-0 5 1 1 0 1 2 3 2 -6
AJ Green G 20 5 1-5 1-4 2-2 2 3 0 0 0 0 2 3 -4
Ryan Rollins G 24 13 5-10 2-3 1-2 9 5 4 1 1 2 7 4 +3
Kasparas Jakucionis G 12 3 1-2 1-2 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 -15
Bogoljub Markovic Did not play: Coach’s decision
Caris LeVert Did not play: Coach’s decision
Gary Trent Jr. Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 102 35-85 19-47 13-19 45 28 14 6 4 11 34 22

Team shooting: FG 41% · 3PT 40% · FT 68%

Boston Celtics

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Paul George F 35 25 8-18 5-9 4-7 3 5 6 4 0 0 3 3 +1
Sam Hauser F 30 11 4-11 3-10 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 -6
Neemias Queta C 29 9 4-8 0-0 1-3 12 3 0 0 2 4 8 3 +1
Derrick White G 36 24 7-18 1-7 9-9 4 7 2 1 2 1 3 4 +8
Hugo Gonzalez G 14 4 1-3 0-2 2-2 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 +9
Bench
Luka Garza C 18 11 4-7 3-4 0-0 5 2 1 1 0 3 2 2 +3
Mitchell Robinson C 20 3 1-8 0-0 1-2 10 1 1 1 1 6 4 1 +5
Payton Pritchard G 18 10 4-7 0-0 2-2 1 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 +7
Baylor Scheierman G 29 9 3-7 3-4 0-0 11 1 1 1 0 3 8 3 +11
Jordan Walsh G 12 3 1-4 1-3 0-0 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 -4
Dillon Mitchell Did not play: Coach’s decision
Chris Cenac Jr. Did not play: Coach’s decision
Mike Conley Did not play: Coach’s decision
Ron Harper Jr. Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 109 37-91 16-39 19-25 54 24 12 8 6 19 35 19

Team shooting: FG 41% · 3PT 41% · FT 76%

Attendance 19,156 · Officials: James Capers, Dedric Taylor, Julian Scott

Recap: George and White leads Celtics past Bucks, 109-102 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

Trade Bucks vs Celtics on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the game and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

Polymarket

Affiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.

Bucks vs Celtics pre-game preview

Boston is listed as a -12.5 favorite with a 221.5 total, down from an opening BOS -14.5 and 225.5. The last meeting went heavily toward Boston: Milwaukee lost 101-133 at home on April 3, 2026, and the Bucks are 3-7 straight up and 1-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Milwaukee is 1-6 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season, with a 2-8 and 3-7 ATS mark over its last 10, most recently losing 100-112 at Minnesota. Boston is 5-2 straight up and 3-3 ATS, 7-3 and 5-4 ATS over its last 10, after a 93-109 loss at Houston. Milwaukee’s defense allows 124.1 points, 47.9 rebounds and 28.7 assists per game, all bottom-four ranks, while Boston allows 109.1 points. Milwaukee’s 104.7 pace ranks fourth versus Boston’s 99.4 at 27th.

Among StatsBench projections, Kyle Kuzma’s over 1.5 assists is projected at 3, and Myles Turner’s over 1.5 blocks is projected at 2.2; both cleared in 8 or 9 of the last 10. Boston lists Jayson Tatum out for rest and Devin Carter out with illness, with Amari Williams out on a G League two-way assignment.

The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Bucks 1-6 2-5 5-2 1-3 0-3
Celtics 5-2 3-3 2-4 4-0 1-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Bucks vs Celtics head-to-head

Bucks are 3-7, 1-3 ATS, O/U 1-3 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Bucks lost 101-133 on April 3, 2026.

Date Venue Bucks result ATS O/U
Apr 3, 26 Bucks home L 101-133 L +17.5 O 217.5
Mar 2, 26 Bucks home L 81-108 L +2.5 U 216.5
Feb 1, 26 Celtics home L 79-107 L +12.5 U 217.5
Dec 11, 25 Bucks home W 116-101 W +9.5 U 222.5
Dec 6, 24 Celtics home L 105-111 – –
Nov 10, 24 Bucks home L 107-113 – –
Oct 28, 24 Celtics home L 108-119 – –
Apr 9, 24 Bucks home W 104-91 – –
Mar 20, 24 Celtics home L 119-122 – –
Jan 11, 24 Bucks home W 135-102 – –

Recent form

Milwaukee Bucks: last 10 (2-8, 3-7 ATS, O/U 8-2)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 2, 26 @ MIN L 100-112 L +11.5 U 233.5
Oct 31, 26 vs CLE L 111-136 L +8.5 O 234.5
Oct 28, 26 vs HOU L 100-132 L +8.5 O 226.5
Oct 26, 26 vs IND W 110-102 W +3.5 U 239.5
Oct 24, 26 @ PHI L 116-127 W +12.5 O 234.5
Oct 23, 26 vs CHI L 125-132 L -1.5 O 241.5
Oct 21, 26 @ WSH L 116-128 L +4.5 O 239.5
Apr 12, 26 @ PHI L 106-126 L +16.5 O 225.5
Apr 10, 26 vs BKN W 125-108 W -10.5 O 218.5
Apr 8, 26 @ DET L 111-137 L +22.5 O 222.5

Boston Celtics: last 10 (7-3, 5-4 ATS, O/U 4-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 2, 26 @ HOU L 93-109 L +4.5 U 215.5
Nov 1, 26 @ ORL W 108-97 W -6.5 U 221.5
Oct 30, 26 vs CHI W 125-111 – –
Oct 27, 26 vs BKN W 125-124 L -13.5 O 223.5
Oct 26, 26 vs CHI W 134-99 W -14.5 U 233.5
Oct 23, 26 vs NY W 107-103 W -2.5 U 220.5
Oct 20, 26 @ DET L 113-121 L -1.5 O 220.5
Apr 12, 26 vs ORL W 113-108 W +12.5 U 222.5
Apr 10, 26 vs NO W 144-118 W -18.5 O 227.5
Apr 9, 26 @ NY L 106-112 L +3.5 O 210.5

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 1:01 AM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Bucks defense Celtics defense
Points allowed per game 124.1 (28th of 30) 109.1 (10th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 47.9 (29th of 30) 44.4 (14th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 28.7 (27th of 30) 26 (13th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 14.7 (26th of 30) 14.7 (24th of 30)

Venue and weather

TD Garden · Boston, MAIndoor, weather won’t matter
The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.

Bucks vs Celtics odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Celtics spread -14.5 -12.5 +2
Total 225.5 222.5 -3
Bucks moneyline +660 +424 +5.9% win chance
Celtics moneyline -1000 -567 -5.9% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Celtics spread -11.5 → -12.5
Total 223.5 → 222.5
The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.

More on these teams: Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets Nov 2 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Nov 2 · All NBA prop picks

21+. Research, not a guarantee: every bet can lose. Bet within your means; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Today's NBA picks

Ziaire WilliamsOVER 9.5 points + assists · vs POR
10/10
Ziaire WilliamsOVER 7.5 points · vs POR
10/10
Daniel GaffordOVER 1.5 stls blks · vs UTA
10/10
All of today's NBA picks →
Today's prop boardHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today's props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.

The morning slate, by email

Join the StatsBench DiscordPicks, results and prop talk, live on game days