New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 6, 2026)

New Mexico7-1 · 6-2 ATSNo. 22 AP

FINAL31 – 3

Nevada3-5 · 5-3 ATS

College Football · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Mackay Stadium

Final score by quarter

Team	1	2	3	4	T
New Mexico	14	0	7	10	31
Nevada	0	3	0	0	3

How the bets settled

MoneylineNew Mexico wonClosed at -425

SpreadNew Mexico coveredNew Mexico -10.5, by 17.5

TotalUnder 39.534 scored, 5.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

New Mexico beat Nevada 31-3 on November 6, taking control with a 14-0 first quarter and putting the game away after halftime by a 17-0 margin. Nevada’s only points came in the second period, and the Lobos owned the second half.

Toa Fa’avae led New Mexico with 150 passing yards and a touchdown on 14-of-20 attempts, while Scottre Humphrey ran for 107 yards and two scores and Cade Keith added 63 receiving yards and a touchdown. The team stats explain the gap: New Mexico outgained Nevada 374-97, rushed for 213 yards to minus-9, held a 20-6 first-down edge and controlled possession 38:36 to 21:24. Nevada’s AJ Bianco passed for 106 yards but the Wolf Pack managed just 2-of-15 on third down.

For bettors, New Mexico covered the closing 10.5-point spread by 17.5, and the 39.5 total went under by 5.5.

How the props finished

3 of 11 cleared

Player	Line	Price	Result
Dominic Kelley	Over 49.5 rushing yards	-110 FanDuel	-4 Missed
Scottre Humphrey	Anytime touchdown	-190 FanDuel	2 Cleared
Gary Givens III	Over 36.5 receiving yards	-108 prophetexchange	3 Missed
Damien Morgan	Over 23.5 receiving yards	-112 FanDuel	20 Missed
Cade Keith	Anytime touchdown	+350 Hard Rock	1 Cleared
Herschel Turner	Over 39.5 rushing yards	+104 FanDuel	12 Missed
Bailen George	Anytime touchdown	+375 Hard Rock	0 Missed
Kiefer Sibley	Anytime touchdown	+150 FanDuel	1 Cleared
Donnie Cheers	Anytime touchdown	+1100 FanDuel	0 Missed
AJ Bianco	Anytime touchdown	+600 Hard Rock	0 Missed
Marshaun Brown	Anytime touchdown	+550 FanDuel	0 Missed

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

NevadaNew Mexico

The score margin against the closing spread (Nevada +10.5). Blue: Nevada covering. Orange: New Mexico covering.

+17.5Largest UNM cover

80%UNM covering

+10.5Largest NEV cover

20%NEV covering

Win probability

NevadaNew Mexico

Blue: Nevada favored. Orange: New Mexico favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

New Mexico

Passing YardsToa Fa’avae14/20, 150 YDS, 1 TD
Rushing YardsScottre Humphrey17 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving YardsCade Keith4 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
SacksBrett Karhu1.5
TacklesJayden Flaker6

Nevada

Passing YardsAJ Bianco14/31, 106 YDS
Rushing YardsHerschel Turner6 CAR, 12 YDS
Receiving YardsMarshaun Brown2 REC, 56 YDS
SacksDylan LaBarbera1
TacklesDylan LaBarbera9

Team stats

New MexicoNevada

374Total yards97

161Passing yards106

213Rushing yards-9

20First downs6

9-16Third downs2-15

0Turnovers1

4-40Penalties5-40

38:36Possession21:24

Box score

New Mexico Lobos

Nevada Wolf Pack

New Mexico Lobos

Passing

Player	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
Toa Fa’avae	14/20	150	7.5	1
Luke Moga	2/2	11	5.5	0
Total	16/22	161	7.3	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Scottre Humphrey	17	107	6.3	2	21
Kiefer Sibley	12	54	4.5	1	31
Toa Fa’avae	8	34	4.3	0	17
Cameron Mathews	4	16	4.0	0	6
Deshaun Buchanan	2	6	3.0	0	6
Tripp Walsh	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	1	-5	-5.0	0	0
Total	45	213	4.7	3	31

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Cade Keith	4	63	15.8	1	28
Bailen George	4	44	11.0	0	22
Tripp Walsh	1	14	14.0	0	14
Zhaiel Smith	2	14	7.0	0	7
DJ Darling	1	11	11.0	0	11
Cameron Mathews	1	6	6.0	0	6
Dorian Patterson	1	5	5.0	0	5
Kiefer Sibley	2	4	2.0	0	4
Total	16	161	10.1	1	28

Defense

Player	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jayden Flaker	6	3	0	0	0	1
Tavian Combs	5	3	0	0	0	0
Mercury Swaim	5	3	0	0.5	0	0
Brett Karhu	4	2	1.5	1.5	0	1
Darren Agu	4	2	0.5	3	0	1
Clay Martineau	4	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Brawley	3	1	0	0	0	0
Frankie Edwards III	3	1	0	0	2	0
CJ McBean	2	2	1	1	1	0
Albert Tuakalau	1	1	0	1	0	0
Xavier Slayton	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	2
Jalen Charles	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	0
Kevin Longstreet	1	0	0	0	0	0
Eric McClain	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kader Diop	1	0	0	0	0	0
Drew Speech	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jake DeVos	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jahmir Torres	0	0	0	0	2	0
Total	44	18	4	8	5	6

Nevada Wolf Pack

Passing

Player	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT
AJ Bianco	14/31	106	3.4	0	0
Total	14/31	106	3.4	0	0

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Herschel Turner	6	12	2.0	9
Janerious Jackson	1	5	5.0	5
Dominic Kelley	4	-4	-1.0	0
AJ Bianco	7	-22	-3.1	9
Total	18	-9	-0.5	9

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Marshaun Brown	2	56	28.0	46
Damien Morgan	4	20	5.0	10
Donnie Cheers	4	19	4.8	9
Herschel Turner	2	7	3.5	7
Gary Givens III	1	3	3.0	3
Perrion Williams	1	1	1.0	1
Total	14	106	7.6	46

Defense

Player	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Dylan LaBarbera	9	7	1	3	0	0
EJ Smith	9	7	0	0.5	0	0
Logologo Va’a	7	3	0	1	0	0
Larry Turner-Gooden	6	4	0	0	1	0
Isaiah Jordan	6	4	0	0	0	0
Poasa Utu	5	3	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Naborne-Owens	5	3	0	0	0	0
Aiden Walker	4	2	0	0	2	0
Kameron Brown	3	2	0	0	0	0
Joshua Scott	3	1	0	0	0	0
David Paine Jr.	2	2	1	1	0	1
Zion Jones	2	2	0	0	0	0
Tanner Vaughan	2	1	0	0	0	0
Brandon Amaniampong	2	1	0	0.5	0	0
Myles Williams	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ky Woods	1	1	0	0	0	0
Kola Babalola	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jack MacKinnon	1	1	0	0	0	0
Cian Stack	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jacob Fernandez	1	1	0	0	0	0
Selman Bridges	1	0	0	0	0	0
Total	72	48	2	6	3	1

Attendance 15,290

Recap: No. 22 New Mexico wins in first game in AP poll in school history, beating Nevada 31-3 (ESPN)

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top New Mexico vs Nevada player props

Player	Prop	Best price	Last 10	Last 5
Dominic Kelley NEV	Over 49.5 rushing yards	-110 FanDuel	70% (7/10)	80%
Scottre Humphrey UNM	Anytime goalscorer	-180 FanDuel	70% (7/10)	100%
Gary Givens III NEV	Over 36.5 receiving yards	-108 prophetexchange	60% (6/10)	100%
Damien Morgan NEV	Over 23.5 receiving yards	-112 FanDuel	55.6% (5/9)	40%
Cade Keith UNM	Anytime goalscorer	+375 Hard Rock	50% (5/10)	40%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 12:24 AM ET.

Betting trends

The under has hit in 3 straight New Mexico games.
New Mexico are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

Trade New Mexico vs Nevada on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the game and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

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New Mexico vs Nevada pre-game preview

Friday’s college football matchup has New Mexico as a -390 moneyline favorite, with Nevada at +10 after opening +12.5 and the total at 38.5 after opening 43.5. The last meeting was October 18, 2025, a 24-22 New Mexico home win; the last two head-to-head meetings are split 1-1.

New Mexico is 7-1 overall and 6-2 against the spread this season, with a 9-1 straight-up and 7-2 ATS mark over its last 10; its most recent game was a 21-16 win at San José State on October 31. Nevada is 3-5 overall and 5-3 ATS, 4-6 straight up and 5-4 ATS over its last 10, and lost 0-27 at UCLA on October 31.

The defensive ranks are a useful starting point: New Mexico allows 11.9 points per game, rank 1 of 136, and 82.4 rushing yards per game, rank 5, while Nevada allows 157.1 rushing yards per game, rank 88, though its pass defense allows 156.1, rank 6. Scottre Humphrey’s anytime touchdown prop is -205 and has cleared in 7 of his last 10.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

New Mexico Lobos

Jack Layne QB189.8 pass yds · 1.0 TD per game

Splits	Season	Road	2025	vs NEV
Pass yds	–	–	191.2 (13)	138.0 (1) 138
Pass TD	–	–	1.0 (13)	0.0 (1) 0

Scottre Humphrey RB53.9 rush yds · 1.0 rec per game

Date	Opp	ATT	YDS	TD	REC	REC YDS
10/31	@ SJSU	16	87	2	1	11
10/25	vs NDSU	10	31	1	–	–
10/18	@ HAW	15	90	2	–	–
10/3	vs UTEP	13	47	1	1	8
9/26	@ NMSU	17	98	2	–	–

Splits	Season	Road	2025	vs NEV
Rush yds	66.8 (8)	70.5 (4)	34.9 (10)	58.0 (1) 58
Rec	1.0 (2)	1.0 (1)	1.0 (4)	1.0 (1) 1

Keagan Johnson WR5.1 rec · 64.3 yds per game

Splits	Season	Road	2025	vs NEV
Rec	–	–	5.1 (12)	5.0 (1) 5
Rec yds	–	–	64.3 (12)	26.0 (1) 26

Bailen George WR2.2 rec · 43.7 yds per game

Date	Opp	TGT	REC	YDS	TD
10/25	vs NDSU	–	1	22	0
10/18	@ HAW	–	1	22	0
10/3	vs UTEP	–	2	62	2
9/26	@ NMSU	–	3	102	0
9/19	@ OU	–	2	18	0

Splits	Season	Road	2025	vs NEV
Rec	2.2 (6)	2.0 (3)	–	–
Rec yds	43.7 (6)	47.3 (3)	–	–

Nevada Wolf Pack

Carter Jones QB141.6 pass yds · 0.8 TD per game

Date	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	RUSH
10/10	@ UTEP	11/19	82	1	0	-19
9/27	vs AF	17/29	216	0	0	-5
9/19	@ MTSU	15/25	185	0	1	21
9/6	vs WKU	9/15	163	2	1	50

Splits	Season	Home	2025	vs UNM
Pass yds	161.5 (4)	189.5 (2)	113.2 (9)	202.0 (1) 202
Pass TD	0.8 (4)	1.0 (2)	0.7 (9)	0.0 (1) 0

Dominic Kelley RB57.4 rush yds · 2.1 rec per game

Date	Opp	ATT	YDS	TD	REC	REC YDS
10/31	@ UCLA	7	6	0	1	3
10/24	vs SJSU	24	82	1	2	19
10/17	@ NDSU	11	60	0	5	33
10/10	@ UTEP	22	99	1	1	21
9/27	vs AF	11	57	0	3	27

Splits	Season	Home	2025	vs UNM
Rush yds	73.9 (8)	93.8 (4)	6.8 (8)	0.0 (1) 0
Rec	2.1 (7)	2.0 (3)	–	– –

Donnie Cheers WR1.9 rec · 40.2 yds per game

Date	Opp	TGT	REC	YDS	TD
10/31	@ UCLA	–	1	36	0
10/24	vs SJSU	–	1	5	0
10/17	@ NDSU	–	–	–	–
10/10	@ UTEP	–	–	–	–
9/27	vs AF	–	1	50	0

Splits	Season	Home	2025	vs UNM
Rec	1.6 (5)	1.8 (4)	4.0 (1)	–
Rec yds	32.4 (5)	31.5 (4)	96.0 (1)	–

Gary Givens III WR2.7 rec · 39.5 yds per game

Date	Opp	TGT	REC	YDS	TD
10/31	@ UCLA	–	–	–	–
10/24	vs SJSU	–	4	45	0
10/17	@ NDSU	–	3	50	1
10/10	@ UTEP	–	5	46	0
9/27	vs AF	–	3	43	0

Splits	Season	Home	2025	vs UNM
Rec	3.2 (6)	3.0 (3)	1.7 (7)	–
Rec yds	50.8 (6)	57.0 (3)	20.7 (7)	–

Records

Team	Record	ATS	O/U	Home	Away
New Mexico	7-1	6-2	3-5	4-0	3-1
Nevada	3-5	5-3	3-5	2-2	1-3

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

New Mexico vs Nevada head-to-head

New Mexico are 1-1 in the last 2 meetings. Last time: New Mexico won 24-22 on October 18, 2025.

Date	Venue	New Mexico result	ATS	O/U
Oct 18, 25	New Mexico home	W 24-22	–	–
Oct 28, 23	Nevada home	L 24-34	–	–

Recent form

New Mexico Lobos: last 10 (9-1, 7-2 ATS, O/U 3-5)

Date	Opponent	Result	ATS	O/U
Oct 31, 26	@ SJSU	W 21-16	L -15.5	U 43.5
Oct 24, 26	vs NDSU	W 21-16	W -4.5	U 39.5
Oct 17, 26	@ HAW	W 21-10	L -14.5	U 46.5
Oct 3, 26	vs UTEP	W 61-7	W -23.5	O 47.5
Sep 26, 26	@ NMSU	W 42-18	W -11.5	O 47.5
Sep 19, 26	@ OU	L 6-14	W +21.5	U 45.5
Sep 12, 26	vs MERC	W 70-7	W -42.5	O 54.5
Sep 5, 26	vs CMU	W 38-7	W -11.5	U 47.5
Nov 28, 25	vs SDSU	W 23-17	W +1.5	–
Nov 22, 25	@ AFA	W 20-3	–	–

Nevada Wolf Pack: last 10 (4-6, 5-4 ATS, O/U 4-5)

Date	Opponent	Result	ATS	O/U
Oct 31, 26	@ UCLA	L 0-27	L +22.5	U 43.5
Oct 24, 26	vs SJSU	W 28-13	W -6	U 46.5
Oct 17, 26	@ NDSU	L 17-31	W +14.5	O 42.5
Oct 10, 26	@ UTEP	W 30-13	W -10	U 48.5
Sep 26, 26	vs AFA	L 33-36	W +4.5	O 50.5
Sep 19, 26	@ MTSU	L 20-27	L -3.5	U 50.5
Sep 12, 26	vs MTST	L 7-20	L +4.5	U 51.5
Sep 5, 26	vs WKU	W 49-14	W +1.5	O 51.5
Nov 29, 25	vs UNLV	L 17-42	L +7.5	O 52.5
Nov 22, 25	@ WYO	W 13-7	–	–

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 12:24 AM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

	New Mexico defense	Nevada defense
Points allowed per game	11.9 (1st of 136)	22.6 (55th of 136)
Passing yards allowed per game	175.9 (20th of 136)	156.1 (6th of 136)
Rushing yards allowed per game	82.4 (5th of 136)	157.1 (88th of 136)
Total yards allowed per game	258.3 (6th of 136)	313.3 (31st of 136)

Venue and weather

Mackay Stadium · Reno, NVOutdoor

48°FclearWind 5 mphRain 0%

Forecast for the start time (Open-Meteo); it can change before the game.

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New Mexico vs Nevada odds by sportsbook

Book	UNM spread	NEV spread	UNM ML	NEV ML	Over	Under
bet365	-24.5 -120	+24.5 -110	–	–	O 38.5 -105	U 38.5 -125
BetRivers	-24.5 -114	+24.5 -130	–	+9000	O 37.5 -133	U 37.5 -110
Caesars	-24.5 -117	+24.5 -110	–	–	O 37.5 -120	U 37.5 -110
DraftKings	-21.5 -118	+21.5 -113	–	+3700	O 37.5 -128	U 37.5 -104
Fanatics	-24.5 -115	+24.5 -115	-50000	+5000	O 37.5 -135	U 37.5 +100

Highlighted: the best price in each column before tip-off. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line	Open	Close	Move
Nevada spread	+12.5	+10.5	-2
Total	43.5	39.5	-4
New Mexico moneyline	-455	-425	-1% win chance
Nevada moneyline	+350	+330	+1% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Nevada spread +10 → +10

Total 38.5 → 38.5

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More on these teams: All College Football prop picks

Betting guides: college football player props guide · college football anytime touchdown props · NCAAF injury report · how parlays work

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#	Team	W-L	PCT	GB
1	PHI	8-2	.800	-
2	BOS	7-2	.778	0.5
3	DET	6-2	.750	1
4	ATL	6-4	.600	2
5	TOR	5-4	.556	2.5
6	CLE	5-4	.556	2.5
7	NY	4-4	.500	3
8	WSH	4-5	.444	3.5
9	MIA	3-6	.333	4.5
10	IND	3-6	.333	4.5
11	CHA	3-7	.300	5
12	ORL	2-6	.250	5
13	BKN	2-6	.250	5
14	CHI	1-7	.125	6
15	MIL	1-8	.111	6.5

#	Team	W-L	PCT	GB
1	LAL	8-2	.800	-
2	HOU	7-2	.778	0.5
3	OKC	7-2	.778	0.5
4	SA	7-2	.778	0.5
5	POR	6-2	.750	1
6	MIN	7-3	.700	1
7	MEM	6-3	.667	1.5
8	GS	6-3	.667	1.5
9	DEN	4-3	.571	2.5
10	DAL	5-4	.556	2.5
11	NO	4-5	.444	3.5
12	PHX	2-5	.286	4.5
13	LAC	1-7	.125	6
14	UTAH	1-8	.111	6.5
15	SAC	1-8	.111	6.5

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	BUF	6-1	.857	W3
2	DEN	6-2	.750	W4
3	JAX	6-2	.750	W2
4	PIT	6-2	.750	W4
5	KC	5-2	.714	L2
6	CIN	5-2	.714	W3
7	NE	5-3	.625	W1
8	CLE	5-3	.625	L1
9	LV	4-4	.500	W1
10	BAL	4-5	.444	L4
11	HOU	2-5	.286	L1
12	NYJ	2-6	.250	L3
13	IND	2-6	.250	L4
14	MIA	1-6	.143	L1
15	TEN	1-7	.125	L2
16	LAC	0-7	.000	L7

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	SF	6-1	.857	L1
2	MIN	6-1	.857	L1
3	NYG	4-2-1	.643	W1
4	CAR	3-4	.429	L2
5	CHI	6-2	.750	W3
6	DET	5-2	.714	W3
7	GB	5-3	.625	W1
8	SEA	4-4	.500	L1
9	LAR	4-4	.500	W2
10	TB	3-5	.375	W2
11	ATL	3-5	.375	L1
12	ARI	3-5	.375	W1
13	DAL	3-5	.375	L1
14	WSH	2-4-1	.357	W1
15	NO	2-5	.286	L1
16	PHI	2-6	.250	L6

#	Team	W-L	PTS	STRK
1	CAR	13-3-0	28	W1
2	BOS	12-4-0	25	W3
3	MTL	10-3-0	23	W1
4	TB	10-3-0	22	W2
5	NJ	11-5-0	22	W3
6	OTT	10-6-0	21	W1
7	FLA	9-5-0	20	W1
8	BUF	8-5-0	19	W1
9	NYR	9-7-0	19	W2
10	TOR	8-7-0	18	L1
11	DET	7-7-0	17	L2
12	WSH	8-6-0	16	L2
13	NYI	7-6-0	16	L2
14	CBJ	7-8-0	14	L1
15	PIT	5-9-0	12	L4
16	PHI	4-10-0	12	L2

#	Team	W-L	PTS	STRK
1	MIN	12-3-0	27	W3
2	EDM	11-3-0	25	L2
3	VGK	11-5-0	24	W2
4	UTA	10-6-0	21	L1
5	DAL	9-5-0	20	L1
6	COL	9-6-0	20	L2
7	SEA	9-5-0	19	W1
8	NSH	7-4-0	19	W3
9	ANA	9-7-0	19	W4
10	STL	7-7-0	16	L2
11	CGY	7-9-0	15	L2
12	WPG	6-8-0	15	W2
13	SJ	7-10-0	15	L4
14	LA	5-7-0	12	W1
15	CHI	4-12-0	9	L5
16	VAN	3-14-0	7	L4

#	Club	W-D-L	Pts	GD
1	ARS	8-0-1	24	+9
2	MCI	7-0-2	21	+10
3	BHA	6-1-2	19	+17
4	CHE	5-1-3	16	+4
5	EVE	4-4-2	16	+2
6	LIV	4-3-2	15	+2
7	BRE	3-5-1	14	+7
8	LEE	3-5-2	14	+2
9	BOU	3-3-3	12	+1
10	TOT	3-3-4	12	-1
11	AVL	3-3-3	12	-3
12	Hull City	2-5-2	11	+1
13	NEW	3-2-4	11	-3
14	IPS	3-2-4	11	-4
15	FUL	2-3-4	9	-2
16	Coventry	3-0-7	9	-9
17	MUN	1-4-4	7	-5
18	CRY	2-1-6	7	-12
19	NFO	1-3-5	6	-6
20	SUN	1-2-6	5	-10

Final score by quarter

How the bets settled

Game review

How the props finished

Against the spread, start to finish

Win probability

Top performers

Team stats

Box score

New Mexico Lobos

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense

Nevada Wolf Pack

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense

StatsBench picks

Top New Mexico vs Nevada player props

Betting trends

New Mexico vs Nevada pre-game preview

Player stats and form

New Mexico Lobos

Nevada Wolf Pack

Records

New Mexico vs Nevada head-to-head

Recent form

New Mexico Lobos: last 10 (9-1, 7-2 ATS, O/U 3-5)

Nevada Wolf Pack: last 10 (4-6, 5-4 ATS, O/U 4-5)

Injury report

Matchup ranks

Venue and weather

New Mexico vs Nevada odds by sportsbook

Line movement from the open

Line movement chart

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