Mainz vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 7, 2026)

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Bundesliga prop picks: today's featured picks
Mainz logo

Mainz10th in the Bundesliga
9:30 AM ETSat, Nov 7
Bayern Munich logo

Bayern Munich1st in the Bundesliga

Bundesliga · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET

Result Moneyline
Mainz +800
Draw +622
Bayern Munich -370

Total goals 3.5: over -162 , under +130

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 9:32 AM ET.

Mainz vs Bayern Munich preview

Saturday’s Bundesliga match has Mainz hosting Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich is the -370 moneyline favorite, Mainz is +800, the draw is +600, and the total is 3.5. Bayern won the last meeting 4-3 at Mainz on April 25, 2026. Mainz’s league form, most recent first, is LLWLW, while Bayern’s is DWWDW. Mainz is 10th with 10 points from eight matches and a 0-1-3 home record; Bayern is 1st with 18 points from eight and a 2-2-0 away record.

The scoring profile leans busy. Bayern has scored 27 and conceded 8 in the league, with over 2.5 goals in 88% of matches and both teams scoring in 75%. Mainz has scored and conceded 17, with over 2.5 in 75% and both teams scoring in 63%. Bayern’s absentees include Luis Díaz, Serge Gnabry and Jamal Musiala, while Mainz is without Silas Katompa-Mvumpa and Dominik Kohr.

Among the prop angles, Phillip Tietz has cleared over 0.5 shots on target in 10 of his last 10 at -125, and Dayot Upamecano has cleared over 1.5 tackles in 9 of his last 10 at -180. Those are the clearest recent hit rates tied to the matchup.

Mainz vs Bayern Munich prediction

21%Mainz
19%Draw
60%Bayern Munich

The books imply 11% / 13% / 76%

1-2Most likely score9% chance
1.4 – 2.4Expected goals
74%Over 2.5 goals
69%Both teams to score

The numbers lean toward Bayern Munich, though the model is less bullish than the books: 60% versus 76% implied. Bayern sit top with 18 points and a 5-3-0 record, scoring 3.38 per match, while Mainz are 0-1-3 at home and concede 2.13 per match. Mainz also score 2.13 per match, so the scoring and conceding rates support a higher-scoring match.

A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (8 and 8 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Mainz vs Bayern Munich player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Phillip Tietz FSV Mainz 05 Over 0.5 shots on target -137 bet365 100% (10/10) 100%
Dayot Upamecano FC Bayern München Over 1.5 tackles -180 DraftKings 90% (9/10) 80%
Nadiem Amiri FSV Mainz 05 Over 42.5 passes -145 Stake 80% (8/10) 60%
Kacper Potulski FSV Mainz 05 Over 0.5 shots +100 Fanatics 70% (7/10) 80%
Kaishu Sano FSV Mainz 05 Over 36.5 passes -137 Stake 70% (7/10) 60%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 9:32 AM ET.

The rest of the Mainz vs Bayern Munich propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Stefan PoschOver 46.5 passes7/10
Grenddy PerozoOver 0.5 fouls7/10
Sheraldo BeckerOver 1.5 shots7/10

Key matchups

From the confirmed lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.

Caci vs Stanisic

CaciWinger, Mainz
VS
StanisicFull-back, Bayern Munich
Tough matchup for CaciStanisic gives away 0.5 fouls a match, 33% less than the average defender (0.7). Caci only draws 0.4, which points to about 0.3 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.4Fouls drawn vs given0.5
0.8Shots vs tackles0.7
Fouls won over 0.54/10avg 0.4 · +110bet365
Shots over 0.55/10avg 0.8 · -118BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.53/10avg 0.4 · +340DraftKings
Fouls committed over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · -137bet365
Tackles over 1.52/10avg 0.7 · -125bet365
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +600DraftKings

Widmer vs Laimer

WidmerWinger, Mainz
VS
LaimerFull-back, Bayern Munich
Good matchup for WidmerLaimer gives away 1.8 fouls a match, 143% more than the average defender (0.7). Widmer only draws 0.1, which points to about 0.2 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.1Fouls drawn vs given1.8
0.3Shots vs tackles1.6
Fouls won over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +100DraftKings
Shots over 0.52/10avg 0.3 · -120DraftKings
Shots on target over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +350BetMGM
Fouls committed over 1.56/10avg 1.8 · -120DraftKings
Tackles over 1.54/10avg 1.6 · -195DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.55/10avg 0.5 · +333bet365

Becker vs Upamecano and Tah

BeckerStriker, Mainz
VS
UpamecanoCentre-back, Bayern Munich
TahCentre-back, Bayern Munich
Good matchup for BeckerUpamecano and Tah give away 1.0 fouls a match, 35% more than the average defender (0.7). Becker only draws 0.4, which points to about 0.5 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.4Fouls drawn vs given1.0
2.2Shots vs tackles1.6
Fouls won over 0.54/10avg 0.4 · -200bet365
Shots over 1.57/10avg 2.2 · -189BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.56/10avg 1.3 · -125BetRivers
Fouls committed over 0.57/10avg 1.2 · -200bet365
Tackles over 1.59/10avg 2.3 · -180DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +400bet365
Fouls committed over 1.52/10avg 0.8 · +125DraftKings
Tackles over 1.53/10avg 0.9 · +175bet365
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +600DraftKings

Konigsdorffer vs Upamecano and Tah

KonigsdorfferStriker, Mainz
VS
UpamecanoCentre-back, Bayern Munich
TahCentre-back, Bayern Munich
Good matchup for KonigsdorfferUpamecano and Tah give away 1.0 fouls a match, 35% more than the average defender (0.7). Konigsdorffer only draws 0.5, which points to about 0.7 fouls drawn here, against a line of 0.5.
0.5Fouls drawn vs given1.0
0.9Shots vs tackles1.6
Fouls won over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · -180DraftKings
Shots over 1.54/10avg 0.9 · -110bet365
Shots on target over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +110bet365
Fouls committed over 0.57/10avg 1.2 · -200bet365
Tackles over 1.59/10avg 2.3 · -180DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +400bet365
Fouls committed over 1.52/10avg 0.8 · +125DraftKings
Tackles over 1.53/10avg 0.9 · +175bet365
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +600DraftKings

Olise vs Widmer

OliseWinger, Bayern Munich
VS
WidmerFull-back, Mainz
Tough matchup for OliseWidmer gives away 0.1 fouls a match, 87% less than the average defender (0.7). Olise draws plenty himself, at 2.1, which points to about 0.3 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
2.1Fouls drawn vs given0.1
3.6Shots vs tackles0.9
Fouls won over 1.56/10avg 2.1 · -175DraftKings
Shots over 4.55/10avg 3.6 · +163bet365
Shots on target over 1.56/10avg 2 · +115Fanatics
Fouls committed over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · -170DraftKings
Tackles over 2.51/10avg 0.9 · +140DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.50/10avg 0 · +425Fanatics

Brown vs Caci

BrownWinger, Bayern Munich
VS
CaciFull-back, Mainz
Good matchup for BrownCaci gives away 1.5 fouls a match, 102% more than the average defender (0.7). Brown draws 0.8, which points to about 1.6 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
0.8Fouls drawn vs given1.5
1.0Shots vs tackles2.1
Fouls won over 1.52/10avg 0.8 · +150bet365
Shots over 1.52/10avg 1 · +120BetRivers
Shots on target over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · +123BetRivers
Fouls committed over 0.57/10avg 1.5 · -285DraftKings
Tackles over 2.54/10avg 2.1 · -120DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · +400DraftKings

Kane vs da Costa and Gruber and Potulski

KaneStriker, Bayern Munich
VS
da CostaCentre-back, Mainz
GruberCentre-back, Mainz
PotulskiCentre-back, Mainz
Good matchup for Kaneda Costa and Gruber and Potulski give away 1.4 fouls a match, 84% more than the average defender (0.7). Kane draws 0.7, which points to about 1.3 fouls drawn here, against a line of 1.5.
0.7Fouls drawn vs given1.4
3.7Shots vs tackles1.7
Fouls won over 1.51/10avg 0.7 · -105DraftKings
Shots over 4.54/10avg 3.7 · +100bet365
Shots on target over 2.53/10avg 1.4 · +195BetMGM
Fouls committed over 0.55/10avg 0.8 · -175bet365
Tackles over 2.52/10avg 1.3 · +150DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +700DraftKings
Fouls committed over 0.53/5avg 1.4 · -162bet365
Tackles over 1.53/5avg 2.4 · -162bet365
Yellow card over 0.50/5avg 0 · +375bet365
Fouls committed over 1.55/10avg 1.9 · +160DraftKings
Tackles over 1.54/10avg 1.5 · -180DraftKings
Yellow card over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · +290Fanatics
Trade Mainz vs Bayern Munich on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the match and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

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Confirmed lineups

The official starting XIs. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.

Mainz 3-5-2Bayern Munich 4-2-3-1

27 Zentner
5/1021 da CostaFouls 0.5+
3/53 GruberTackles 1.5+
7/1048 PotulskiShots 0.5+
5/1019 CaciShots 0.5+
7 Lee Jae-Sung
7/106 SanoFouls won 0.5+
5/1010 AmiriSOT 0.5+
30 Widmer (C)
7/1023 BeckerShots 1.5+
5/1011 KonigsdorfferFouls 0.5+
1 Neuer
6/1027 LaimerFouls 1.5+
9/102 UpamecanoTackles 1.5+
4 Tah
44 Stanisic
6/106 KimmichShots 0.5+
5/1045 PavlovicFouls won 0.5+
6/1017 OliseFouls won 1.5+
42 Karl
11 Brown
9 Kane

Mainz missing: D. Kohr (foot), P. Mwene (yellow cards), S. Posch (red card), Silas (broken shinbone)

Bayern Munich missing: L. Diaz (muscle), S. Gnabry (muscle), J. Musiala (muscle), I. Saibari (ankle), B. Sapoko Ndiaye (injury)

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for Bundesliga players. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Form and head to head

Mainz10th in the tableLLWLW3W 1D 4L · 1.25 points a match
4meetings

1 win1 draw2 wins
Bayern Munich1st in the tableDWWDW5W 3D 0L · 2.25 points a match
100%Over 1.54/4
100%Over 2.54/4
50%Over 3.52/4
75%Both scored3/4
  • Apr 2026M05 3-4 FCB
  • Dec 2025FCB 2-2 M05
  • Apr 2025FCB 3-0 M05
  • Dec 2024M05 2-1 FCB

Clean sheets and goal trends

Mainz

38%

Clean sheet3/8

13%

Failed to score1/8

63%

Both scored5/8

75%

Over 2.56/8

Bayern Munich

25%

Clean sheet2/8

13%

Failed to score1/8

75%

Both scored6/8

88%

Over 2.57/8

Attack and defense

Attacking

MainzBayern Munich
38%Win %63%
51%Possession %66%
63%Both teams scored %75%
25%Scored first %75%
  • 2.1Scored per match3.4
  • 14.6Shots per match19.9
  • 5.8Shots on target per match9.5
  • 2.9Big chances per match4.5

Defensive

MainzBayern Munich
50%Loss %0%
13%Failed to score %13%
38%Clean sheet %25%
63%Conceded first %13%
  • 2.1Conceded per match1.0
  • 10.9Shots against per match8.8
  • 16.0Tackles per match13.6
  • 14.0Fouls per match10.6

Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.

Recent results

FSV Mainz 05 LLWLW L 1-4 at SV Elversberg · L 2-3 vs SVW · W 1-0 at FC Schalke 04 · L 3-4 vs B04 · W 4-3 at BMG
FC Bayern München DWWDW D 2-2 vs BVB · W 3-1 at SCF · W 6-1 vs RBL · D 2-2 at FCA · W 7-0 vs FCU

Last five Bundesliga results, most recent first.

Season numbers

FSV Mainz 05 FC Bayern München
Table 10 (10 pts) 1 (18 pts)
Record (W-D-L) 3-1-4 5-3-0
Home / away record 0-1-3 (6-10) home 2-2-0 (7-4) away
Goals scored per match 2.13 3.38
Goals conceded per match 2.13 1.00
Shots / on target per match 14.63 / 5.75 19.88 / 9.50
Both teams scored 63% 75%
Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals 75% / 75% / 75% 88% / 88% / 75%
Clean sheets 38% 25%
Failed to score 13% 13%
Yellow cards per match 2.38 1.00
Corners per match 5.61 8.17

This season, 8 and 8 matches.

Referee

Robert Schroder averages 3.4 yellow cards and 20.3 fouls per match over 8 matches this season (league average 3.5 and 22.2).

Injury report

Mainz

  • Silas Katompa-Mvumpa (M): Out, Broken Ankle
  • Dominik Kohr (D): Out, Ankle Injury
  • Otto Ruoppi (M): Out, Knee Injury

Bayern Munich

  • Luis Díaz (M): Out, Hamstring Injury
  • Bara Sapoko Ndiaye (M): Out, Appendicitis
  • Ismael Saibari (M): Out, Ankle Injury
  • Serge Gnabry (M): Out, Hamstring Injury
  • Jamal Musiala (M): Out, Thigh Injury
Compare Bundesliga playersHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books, side by side. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Mainz vs Bayern Munich odds by sportsbook

Book M05 ML MUN ML Over Under
bet365 +750 -370 O 3.5 -162 U 3.5 +130
BetRivers +750 -417 O 4 -118 U 4 -111
DraftKings +750 -425 O 3.5 -165 U 3.5 +130
FanDuel +800 -475 O 4.5 +130 U 4.5 -160
Fanatics +800 -400 O 3.5 -170 U 3.5 +130

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 9:32 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement since we first listed this match (Fri 3:48 AM ET): Mainz moneyline +650 → +800.

Goal lines and both teams to score

Both teams to score: yes -190, no +150

Total goals Over Under
1.5 -2500 +1040
2.5 -500 +350
3.5 -178 +144
4.5 +130 -160

Line movement chart

Total 3.5 → 3.5
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More on these teams: All Bundesliga prop picks · All Bundesliga predictions

Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · football player props guide · how parlays work

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