Packers vs Patriots Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 8, 2026)

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NFL prop picks: today's featured picks
Green Bay Packers logo

Packers5-3 · 5-3 ATS7th in the NFC
4:25 PM ETSun, Nov 8Win % 43–57
New England Patriots logo

Patriots5-3 · 3-4-1 ATS7th in the AFC

NFL · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Green Bay Packers +150 +3 +100 O 44.5 -110
New England Patriots -170 -3 -115 U 44.5 -108

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 12:08 PM ET.

Packers vs Patriots preview

The betting market has New England as a 3-point favorite with a 44.5 total, up from an opening line of Patriots -1.5 and 46.5; moneyline prices are NE -166 and GB +147. Green Bay is 5-3 straight up and 5-3 ATS this season, with a 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS mark over its last 10 and a most recent 27-19 win over Carolina on October 29. New England is 5-3 SU and 3-4-1 ATS this season, 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS over its last 10, and most recently won 24-19 at Miami on November 1.

The defensive ranks show a close matchup: New England ranks 8th in points allowed at 20.3 and 7th in rushing yards allowed at 92.6, while Green Bay ranks 9th in points allowed at 20.5 and 9th in passing yards allowed at 220.9. New England’s injury list includes Harold Landry III (PUP-R) and multiple IR designations. On the prop side, Jordan Love’s over 3.5 longest rush at -110 has cleared in 9 of his last 10, and Drake Maye’s over 12.5 longest rush at -108 has cleared in 7 of 10.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Packers vs Patriots player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Jordan Love GB Over 3.5 longest rush -108 Kalshi 90% (9/10) 100%
MarShawn Lloyd GB Over 8.5 rushing yards -106 DraftKings 87.5% (7/8) 80%
Trey Smack GB Over 1.5 xp made -140 ESPN BET 87.5% (7/8) 100%
Mack Hollins NE Over 17.5 longest reception -108 DraftKings 80% (8/10) 80%
Evan Williams GB Over 4.5 solo tackles +100 Fanatics 70% (7/10) 80%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 12:08 PM ET.

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Christian WatsonOver 26.5 longest reception7/10
Drake MayeOver 12.5 longest rush7/10
Rhamondre StevensonOver 10.5 longest reception7/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Mack Hollins vs Packers

Mack HollinsWR, NE
VS
PackersDefense vs wide receivers
Good matchup for Mack HollinsPackers allow 13.9 receptions a game to wide receivers, 4th most in the league. Hollins averages 3.7 against a line of 2.5.
Toughest29th of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 2.57/10avg 3.7 · 29th of 32 vs WR · -134prophetexchange
Receiving yards over 32.57/10avg 50.1 · 21st of 32 vs WR · -111DraftKings
Receiving tds over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · 18th of 32 vs WR · +260Stake

Christian Watson vs Patriots

Christian WatsonWR, GB
VS
PatriotsDefense vs wide receivers
Even matchupPatriots allow 12 receptions a game to wide receivers, 12th most in the league. Watson averages 5 against a line of 4.5.
Toughest21st of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 4.56/10avg 5 · 21st of 32 vs WR · -111DraftKings
Receiving tds over 0.56/10avg 0.8 · 25th of 32 vs WR · +131Stake
Receiving yards over 70.55/10avg 85.7 · 22nd of 32 vs WR · +106bet105

MarShawn Lloyd vs Patriots

MarShawn LloydRB, GB
VS
PatriotsDefense vs running backs
Even matchupPatriots allow 82.3 rushing yards a game to running backs, 14th fewest in the league. Lloyd averages 18.6 against a line of 8.5.
Toughest14th of 32, rushing yardsSoftest
Rushing yards over 8.57/8avg 18.6 · 14th of 32 vs RB · -106DraftKings
Receptions over 1.54/8avg 1.6 · 12th of 32 vs RB · +225bet365
Receiving yards over 19.51/8avg 9.9 · 15th of 32 vs RB · +600bet365

Jordan Love vs Patriots

Jordan LoveQB, GB
VS
PatriotsDefense vs quarterbacks
Even matchupPatriots allow 1.4 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, 13th fewest in the league. Love averages 2 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest13th of 32, passing touchdownsSoftest
Passing tds over 1.58/10avg 2 · 13th of 32 vs QB · +111bet105
Passing yards over 276.55/10avg 264.6 · 16th of 32 vs QB · -109bet105
Rushing yards over 3.54/10avg 2.8 · 6th of 32 vs QB · +103prophetexchange

Drake Maye vs Packers

Drake MayeQB, NE
VS
PackersDefense vs quarterbacks
Tough matchup for Drake MayePackers allow 1.3 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, 8th fewest in the league. Maye averages 1.7 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest8th of 32, passing touchdownsSoftest
Passing tds over 1.56/10avg 1.7 · 8th of 32 vs QB · +100Kalshi
Rushing yards over 25.55/10avg 31.8 · 13th of 32 vs QB · +104bet105
Passing yards over 230.55/10avg 236.4 · 9th of 32 vs QB · -109prophetexchange

Hunter Henry vs Packers

Hunter HenryTE, NE
VS
PackersDefense vs tight ends
Tough matchup for Hunter HenryPackers allow 35.3 receiving yards a game to tight ends, 2nd fewest in the league. Henry averages 36.9 against a line of 36.5.
Toughest2nd of 32, receiving yardsSoftest
Receiving yards over 36.55/10avg 36.9 · 2nd of 32 vs TE · -108Caesars
Receptions over 3.53/10avg 3.4 · 2nd of 32 vs TE · -103prophetexchange
Receiving tds over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · 7th of 32 vs TE · +219Stake

Betting trends

  • Packers have covered the spread in 5 straight games.
  • The under has hit in 5 straight Packers games.
  • The over is 3-7 in Packers’ last 10 games.
  • Patriots have failed to cover in 3 straight games.
  • The over has hit in 5 straight Patriots games.
  • The over is 7-3 in Patriots’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Packers vs Patriots defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Packers defense facing the Patriots

Pos Pass yds Rush yds Rec yds Catches TDs
QB 220.99th 13.113th – – 1.38th
RB – 93.517th 33.619th 4.821st 1.330th
WR – – 152.021st 13.929th 0.918th
TE – – 35.32nd 4.02nd 0.37th

Softest spot: 1.3 rushing touchdowns a game to running backs, 3rd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 35.3 receiving yards a game to tight ends, 2nd fewest in the league.

Patriots defense facing the Packers

Pos Pass yds Rush yds Rec yds Catches TDs
QB 235.516th 9.06th – – 1.413th
RB – 82.314th 31.015th 3.912th 0.613th
WR – – 152.122nd 12.021st 1.125th
TE – – 52.416th 5.415th 0.38th

Softest spot: 1.1 receiving touchdowns a game to wide receivers, 8th most in the league.

Toughest spot: 9.0 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, 6th fewest in the league.

The props these matchups touchEvery NFL line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love QB250.4 pass yds · 1.8 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
10/30 vs CAR 30/41 288 3 1 0
10/25 @ DET 27/45 274 2 1 0
10/19 vs DAL 23/41 276 1 1 12
10/11 vs CHI 25/31 367 2 0 6
10/4 @ TB 22/30 197 2 1 -8
Splits Season Road 2025 vs NE
Pass yds 280.8 (8) 250.8 (4) 231.5 (16) –
Pass TD 2.0 (8) 2.0 (4) 1.7 (16) –

Josh Jacobs RB57.4 rush yds · 2.9 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
10/30 vs CAR 21 39 1 6 13
10/25 @ DET 11 36 0 5 55
Splits Season Road 2025 vs NE
Rush yds 37.5 (2) 36.0 (1) 61.5 (16) –
Rec 5.5 (2) 5.0 (1) 2.3 (16) –

Christian Watson WR4.5 rec · 74.2 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/30 vs CAR 10 8 113 0
10/25 @ DET 8 5 57 0
10/19 vs DAL 8 3 64 0
10/11 vs CHI 8 6 143 2
10/4 @ TB 3 3 47 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs NE
Rec 5.3 (8) 4.5 (4) 3.5 (11) –
Rec yds 88.5 (8) 73.0 (4) 58.8 (11) –

Matthew Golden WR3.7 rec · 52.9 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/30 vs CAR 13 7 79 1
10/25 @ DET 12 6 39 0
10/19 vs DAL 13 6 104 1
10/11 vs CHI 7 6 123 0
10/4 @ TB 7 3 21 1
Splits Season Road 2025 vs NE
Rec 5.4 (8) 4.8 (4) 2.2 (15) –
Rec yds 77.4 (8) 53.3 (4) 29.7 (15) –

New England Patriots

Drake Maye QB241.1 pass yds · 1.8 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
11/1 @ MIA 16/20 199 2 0 5
10/23 @ CHI 24/31 321 2 1 26
10/18 vs NYJ 18/32 235 3 0 24
10/11 vs LV 26/34 374 4 0 25
10/4 @ BUF 22/37 269 3 1 54
Splits Season Home 2025 vs GB
Pass yds 247.9 (8) 272.3 (3) 248.7 (21) –
Pass TD 1.9 (8) 2.3 (3) 1.8 (21) –

Rhamondre Stevenson RB51.9 rush yds · 2.9 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
11/1 @ MIA 19 82 0 3 8
10/23 @ CHI 6 22 0 5 93
10/18 vs NYJ 14 36 0 0 0
10/11 vs LV 13 64 1 3 21
10/4 @ BUF 13 47 1 3 27
Splits Season Home 2025 vs GB
Rush yds 45.9 (8) 47.7 (3) 45.6 (18) –
Rec 2.9 (8) 1.3 (3) 2.4 (18) –

A.J. Brown WR4.8 rec · 62.2 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/23 @ CHI 6 3 48 0
10/18 vs NYJ 10 3 27 0
9/10 @ SEA 4 3 26 0
Splits Season Home 2025 vs GB
Rec 3.0 (3) 3.0 (1) 5.1 (16) 2.0 (1)
2
Rec yds 33.7 (3) 27.0 (1) 64.3 (16) 13.0 (1)
13

Mack Hollins WR3.5 rec · 50.0 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/4 @ BUF 4 3 53 0
9/27 @ JAX 9 6 87 0
9/20 vs PIT 2 2 18 0
9/10 @ SEA 5 4 51 0
Splits Season Home 2025 vs GB
Rec 3.8 (4) 2.0 (1) 3.1 (17) –
Rec yds 52.3 (4) 18.0 (1) 39.9 (17) –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Packers 5-3 5-3 2-6 3-1 2-2
Patriots 5-3 3-4-1 5-3 3-0 2-3

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Recent form

Green Bay Packers: last 10 (5-5, 6-4 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 29, 26 vs CAR W 27-19 W -3.5 U 47.5
Oct 25, 26 @ DET L 17-20 W +3.5 U 55.5
Oct 18, 26 vs DAL W 23-13 W +1.5 U 54.5
Oct 11, 26 vs CHI W 31-7 W +1.5 U 46.5
Oct 4, 26 @ TB W 17-14 W -2.5 U 38.5
Sep 24, 26 vs ATL L 14-35 L -4.5 O 43.5
Sep 20, 26 @ NYJ W 20-17 L -3.5 U 44.5
Sep 13, 26 @ MIN L 22-39 L +2.5 O 46.5
Jan 4, 26 @ MIN L 3-16 W +13.5 U 37.5
Dec 27, 25 vs BAL L 24-41 L -2.5 O 37.5

New England Patriots: last 10 (7-3, 5-4-1 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 1, 26 @ MIA W 24-19 L -7 O 41.5
Oct 22, 26 @ CHI L 24-30 L +3 O 50.5
Oct 18, 26 vs NYJ W 26-19 L -7.5 O 42.5
Oct 11, 26 vs LV W 45-17 W -3.5 O 45.5
Oct 4, 26 @ BUF W 29-26 W +7 O 49.5
Sep 27, 26 @ JAX L 6-35 L +3 U 46.5
Sep 20, 26 vs PIT W 20-3 W -4.5 U 41.5
Sep 9, 26 @ SEA L 10-13 P +3 U 44.5
Jan 4, 26 vs MIA W 38-10 W -14.5 O 43.5
Dec 28, 25 @ NYJ W 42-10 W -12.5 O 42.5

Injury report

Green Bay Packers

  • Luke Musgrave (TE): PUP-R, Packers head coach Matt Lafleur said Thursday it’s "tough to say" whether Musgrave
  • Micah Parsons (DE): PUP-R, Parsons
  • Johnathan Baldwin II (S): IR, ir
  • Collin Oliver (DE): IR-R, Oliver is dealing with Achilles and calf injuries
  • Thomas Yassmin (TE): IR, Green Bay reverted Yassmin
  • Zach Bako-Bewele (OT): IR, The Packers placed Bako-Bewele
  • Edgerrin Cooper (LB): IR, Cooper
  • Chris Brooks (RB): IR-R, The Packers didn’t activate Brooks
  • Skyy Moore (WR): IR, The Packers placed Moore
  • Zaire Franklin (LB): Out, Franklin
  • Sean Rhyan (G): Out, Rhyan
  • Keisean Nixon (CB): Questionable, Nixon
  • MarShawn Lloyd (RB): Questionable, Lloyd
  • Warren Brinson (DT): IR, Green Bay placed Brinson
  • Jayden Reed (WR): IR, The Packers are expected to place Reed
  • Javon Hargrave (DT): IR, The Packers placed Hargrave
  • Jonathan Ford (DT): IR, The Packers placed Ford
  • Jacob Monk (C): IR, The Packers placed Monk
  • Travis Glover (OT): Out, Glover
  • Josh Whyle (TE): Out, Whyle

New England Patriots

  • Harold Landry III (LB): PUP-R, Landry
  • Julian Hill (TE): IR, The Patriots placed Hill
  • Myles Montgomery (RB): IR
  • Khalil Jacobs (LB): IR, The Patriots placed Jacobs
  • Mike Onwenu (G): IR, The Patriots placed Onwenu
  • Reggie Gilliam (FB): IR, The Patriots placed Gilliam
  • Quintayvious Hutchins (LB): IR, Hutchins
  • Greg Van Roten (G): IR-R, Van Roten
  • Mack Hollins (WR): Questionable, The Patriots activated Hollins
  • Romeo Doubs (WR): IR, Doubs
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (G): IR, Vera-Tucker
  • A.J. Brown (WR): Out, Brown
  • TreVeyon Henderson (RB): Out, Henderson
  • Hunter Henry (TE): Questionable, Henry
  • Morgan Moses (OT): Questionable, questionable
  • Brenden Schooler (S): Questionable, questionable
  • Dell Pettus (S): IR, The Patriots placed Pettus

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Packers defense Patriots defense
Points allowed per game 20.5 (9th of 32) 20.3 (8th of 32)
Passing yards allowed per game 220.9 (9th of 32) 235.5 (16th of 32)
Rushing yards allowed per game 110.9 (16th of 32) 92.6 (7th of 32)
Receptions allowed per game 22.6 (23rd of 32) 21.3 (14th of 32)

Venue and weather

Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MAOutdoor
49°FclearWind 9 mphRain 0%

Forecast for the start time (Open-Meteo); it can change before the game.

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Packers vs Patriots odds by sportsbook

Book GB spread NE spread GB ML NE ML Over Under
bet365 +3.5 -119 -3.5 -101 +149 -178 O 44.5 -112 U 44.5 -108
BetRivers +3 -103 -3 -118 +122 -200 O 45 -108 U 45 -112
Caesars +3.5 -125 -3.5 -109 +148 -176 O 44.5 -112 U 44.5 -109
DraftKings +3 -105 -3 -115 +142 -170 O 44.5 -112 U 44.5 -108
FanDuel +3 -105 -3 -115 +146 -174 O 44.5 -110 U 44.5 -110
Fanatics +3 +100 -3 -120 +150 -180 O 44.5 -110 U 44.5 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 12:08 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Patriots spread -1.5 -3 -1.5
Total 46.5 44.5 -2
Packers moneyline +105 +142 -7.5% win chance
Patriots moneyline -125 -170 +7.4% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Patriots spread -3 → -3.5
Total 44.5 → 44.5
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More on these teams: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Nov 1 · Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers Oct 29 · All NFL prop picks

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