Ball State vs Massachusetts Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 4, 2026)

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College Football prop picks: today's featured picks
Ball State Cardinals logo
Ball State3-5 · 5-3 ATS
FINAL30 – 31
Massachusetts Minutemen logo
Massachusetts4-4 · 4-4 ATS

College Football · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Final score by quarter

Team1234OTT
Ball State7377630
Massachusetts01473731

How the bets settled

MoneylineMassachusetts wonClosed at -142
SpreadBall State coveredBall State +2.5, by 1.5
TotalOver 48.561 scored, 12.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Massachusetts beat Ball State 31-30 in overtime, with the game tied after four quarters before the Minutemen scored 7 in the extra period and held the Cardinals to 6. William Watson III threw for 302 yards and a touchdown on 17-of-25 passing, Kezion Dia-Johnson had 97 receiving yards, and Curtis Kimmons IV added 85 rushing yards. Jalen Bonds led Ball State with 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Keldric Luster passed for 182 yards and a score. Massachusetts outgained Ball State 455-350 and controlled possession 33:18, with a 302-182 passing edge and 12.1 yards per pass. Two lost fumbles hurt the Minutemen, while Ball State turned it over zero times and rushed for 168 yards.

For bettors, Massachusetts won but Ball State covered the closing 2.5-point spread by 1.5. The closing total of 48.5 went over by 12.5.

How the props finished

4 of 8 cleared

PlayerLinePriceResult
Jalen BondsOver 4.5 receiving yards-150 FanDuel19 Cleared
Donovan HamiltonOver 34.5 receiving yards-112 FanDuel44 Cleared
Curtis Kimmons IVAnytime touchdown+170 Hard Rock0 Missed
Kezion Dia-JohnsonOver 20.5 receiving yards-112 FanDuel97 Cleared
Elijah FaulknerOver 6.5 longest reception-120 Fliff3 Missed
Isaiah ThackerOver 25.5 receiving yards-110 FanDuel-1 Missed
Jabari LewisOver 19.5 longest reception-130 Fliff64 Cleared
Jamarion McDougleOver 34.5 receiving yards-110 ESPN BET34 Missed

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

MassachusettsBall State
The score margin against the closing spread (Massachusetts -2.5). Blue: Massachusetts covering. Orange: Ball State covering.
+9.5Largest BALL cover
68%BALL covering
+4.5Largest MASS cover
32%MASS covering

Win probability

MassachusettsBall State
Blue: Massachusetts favored. Orange: Ball State favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Ball State

  • Passing YardsKeldric Luster17/27, 182 YDS, 1 TD
  • Rushing YardsJalen Bonds17 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
  • Receiving YardsAlex Scherle3 REC, 49 YDS
  • SacksBen Marsh1
  • TacklesSterling Smith9

Massachusetts

  • Passing YardsWilliam Watson III17/25, 302 YDS, 1 TD
  • Rushing YardsCurtis Kimmons IV19 CAR, 85 YDS
  • Receiving YardsKezion Dia-Johnson3 REC, 97 YDS
  • SacksJoshua Iseah2
  • TacklesZeraun Daniel10

Team stats

Ball StateMassachusetts
350Total yards455
182Passing yards302
168Rushing yards153
18First downs23
6-14Third downs4-10
0Turnovers2
10-95Penalties5-50
26:39Possession33:18

Box score

Ball State CardinalsMassachusetts Minutemen

Ball State Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Keldric Luster17/271826.71024.3
Total17/271826.710—

Rushing

PlayerCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Jalen Bonds171327.8242
Keldric Luster14211.5121
TJ Horton4112.804
CJ Nelson155.005
Team1-1-1.000
Total371684.5342

Receiving

PlayerRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Alex Scherle34916.3035
Donovan Hamilton34414.7021
Jamarion McDougle23417.0120
Tate Hoover12020.0020
Jalen Bonds5193.807
TJ Horton2178.5016
Isaiah Thacker1-1-1.000
Total1718210.7135

Defense

PlayerTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Sterling Smith9400000
Mikeah Webster7501000
Cincear Lewis7300.5000
Will Yates4300100
Lucas Szymborski4300000
Gavin Forsha4200000
Quentavius Scandrett3200000
Anthony Pinnace3200.5000
Deondre Shepherd2200000
Gabe Aramboles2200000
Ka’Shawn Thomas2100000
Kaleb Stewart2100000
Ameir Glenn2100010
Ben Marsh1111010
Jared Badie1100010
Derek Fields1100000
Eli Hohlt1100000
Reese Hill1100000
Chris Jackson1100100
Justin Thomas1101000
Stone Perkins1100000
Layton Starks1000000
Kamari Williams1000000
Total613914230

Massachusetts Minutemen

Passing

PlayerC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
William Watson III17/2530212.11049.8
Total17/2530212.110—

Rushing

PlayerCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Curtis Kimmons IV19854.5016
William Watson III8405.0221
Elijah Faulkner10242.418
T.Y. Harding155.005
Team1-1-1.000
Total391533.9321

Receiving

PlayerRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Kezion Dia-Johnson39732.3047
Jabari Lewis27839.0164
T.Y. Harding67011.7046
Reece Adkins44411.0017
Curtis Kimmons IV11010.0010
Elijah Faulkner133.003
Total1730217.8164

Defense

PlayerTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Zeraun Daniel10500.5010
Justin Krueger7501010
Timmy Hinspeter6302.5000
Kendall Bournes6100000
TJ Magee5300000
Joshua Iseah4222.5020
Tyler Martin4200.5000
Michael Robinson3200000
Joshua Nobles3100000
Andrew DePaepe3000000
Jahmad Harmon2200000
DD Snyder2100010
Aubrey Melvin2100.5000
Tim Passmore Jr.1100000
Romando Johnson1100000
Isaiah Reed1000000
Hollis Dirstine1000000
Max Dowling1000000
William DePaepe1000010
Raheim Sexil1000100
Grant Mills1000000
Chris Stanley1000.5000
Zakar Morris0000010
Khari Bendolph0000100
Total663028270

Attendance 8,881

Recap: Watson’s 13-yard TD run in OT lifts UMass over Ball State 31-30 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • Ball State have covered the spread in 4 straight games.
  • The over is 6-2 in Ball State’ last 8 games.
  • The under has hit in 3 straight Massachusetts games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Ball State vs Massachusetts pre-game preview

Wednesday’s Ball State at Massachusetts matchup lists Massachusetts as the favorite, with the spread at MASS -3.5 and the total at 49.5; the DraftKings opener was MASS -4.5 and 48.5, now MASS -3 and 49.5. Ball State is 3-5 and 5-3 ATS overall, 3-7 and 5-3 ATS in its last 10, and most recently beat Sacramento State 34-17. Massachusetts is 4-4 and 4-4 ATS, 4-6 and 4-5 ATS in its last 10, and lost 16-35 at UConn most recently.

The defensive ranks show a notable split: Ball State allows 35.3 points per game (129th of 136) and 419.6 total yards per game (124th), while Massachusetts allows 21.1 points (41st) and 323.1 total yards (35th). Massachusetts also ranks 24th in passing yards allowed at 180 per game, against Ball State’s 107th at 238.8. Among props, Donovan Hamilton’s over 36.5 receiving yards at -114 cleared in 7 of his last 10, and TJ Horton’s over 0.5 anytime touchdown at -115 cleared in 6 of 10.

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Records

TeamRecordATSO/UHomeAway
Ball State3-55-36-22-11-4
Massachusetts4-44-42-62-22-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Recent form

Ball State Cardinals: last 10 (3-7, 5-3 ATS, O/U 6-2)

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
Oct 24, 26vs SACW 34-17W -14.5U 51.5
Oct 17, 26@ BGSUW 32-31W +6O 46.5
Oct 10, 26@ NUL 14-45W +34.5O 53.5
Oct 3, 26vs TOLL 24-39W +20.5O 52.5
Sep 26, 26@ KENTL 13-26L +2.5U 51.5
Sep 19, 26@ LIBL 15-51L +14.5O 49.5
Sep 12, 26vs STBKW 41-17W -13.5O 52.5
Sep 5, 26@ OSUL 3-56L +50.5O 55.5
Nov 29, 25@ M-OHL 24-45––
Nov 22, 25@ TOLL 9-38––

Massachusetts Minutemen: last 10 (4-6, 4-5 ATS, O/U 3-6)

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
Oct 23, 26@ CONNL 16-35L +12.5U 53.5
Oct 17, 26@ BUFFL 18-25L +6.5U 43.5
Oct 10, 26vs M-OHL 19-20W +6U 44.5
Oct 3, 26vs EMUL 14-38L -5.5O 49.5
Sep 26, 26@ SACW 35-6W -6U 49.5
Sep 19, 26vs STOW 36-14L -30.5U 50.5
Sep 12, 26vs SHUW 37-10W -23.5U 53.5
Sep 3, 26@ RUTGW 37-21W +29.5O 55.5
Nov 25, 25vs BGSUL 14-45L +14O 44.5
Nov 18, 25@ OHIOL 14-42––

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 1:47 AM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Ball State defenseMassachusetts defense
Points allowed per game34.8 (129th of 136)22.1 (51st of 136)
Passing yards allowed per game245.8 (113th of 136)178 (24th of 136)
Rushing yards allowed per game175 (110th of 136)145.3 (71st of 136)
Total yards allowed per game420.8 (124th of 136)323.3 (35th of 136)

Venue and weather

Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Amherst, MAOutdoor
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Ball State vs Massachusetts odds

Line movement from the open

LineOpenCloseMove
Massachusetts spread-4.5-2.5+2
Total48.548.5–
Ball State moneyline+150+120+5.5% win chance
Massachusetts moneyline-180-142-5.6% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Massachusetts spread -3.5 → -2.5
Total 49.5 → 49
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More on these teams: Massachusetts Minutemen vs UConn Huskies Oct 23 · All College Football prop picks

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