StatsBench refreshes this Champions League prop picks page every day, and today is September 10, 2026. Eight markets made the cut across four fixtures: PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk, Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt, Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma, and Slavia Praha vs Lens. Every hit rate below gets counted from real match logs, one match at a time.
Two things to know before you scroll. Every pick here is the over, and a big hit rate is not the same thing as a good price. Fouls, shots and tackles lines swing on referee tendencies, game script and who is chasing the score, so check the number before you bet into it.
Champions League Prop Picks Today: The Short List
Here is the whole board in one place. These are the best prices in the snapshot, and they move, so verify before you fire.
| Pick | Market | Recent matches | Last 5 | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Júnior (PSV) | Fouls over 0.5 | 7/7 (100%) | 100% | -120 (bet365) |
| Ismael Saibari (Bayern) | Fouls won over 0.5 | 7/7 (100%) | 100% | -195 (DraftKings) |
| Mason Greenwood (Fenerbahçe) | Shots on target over 0.5 | 8/8 (100%) | 100% | -290 (FanDuel) |
| Joshua Kimmich (Bayern) | Fouls won over 0.5 | 9/10 (90%) | 80% | -180 (DraftKings) |
| Luis Díaz (Bayern) | Fouls over 0.5 | 9/10 (90%) | 100% | -235 (DraftKings) |
| Stepan Chaloupek (Slavia Praha) | Tackles over 1.5 | 7/8 (87.5%) | 80% | -225 (bet365) |
| Mason Greenwood (Fenerbahçe) | Shots over 3.5 | 7/8 (87.5%) | 80% | -135 (Stake) |
| Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt | Total goals over 2.5 | FCB 80%, BOD 90% (combined 85%) | n/a | -800 |
Four of these eight markets come from one match. Keep that in mind as you build a slip, because the correlation section below lays out exactly which picks share a risk.
Mauro Júnior OVER 0.5 Fouls (PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk)
Mauro Júnior cleared 0.5 fouls in 7 of 7 recent matches, and the last five agree at 100%. The price is -120 at bet365, the shortest number on this page for a market that only needs one foul. That is both the appeal and the catch. A 7-match sample is small, and one late tackle or a lenient referee decides this market. There is no matchup line on this row, so the hit rate is the entire case.
Ismael Saibari OVER 0.5 Fouls Won (Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt)
Saibari drew a foul in all 7 of his recent matches, and the last five hold at 100%. DraftKings prices that at -195. Bodø allows 3 fouls won per match to midfielders, which is 10th-fewest of 29 (league average 3.1 over a 14-match sample). That is an average matchup, so the case rests on Saibari’s own rate rather than a soft opponent. He also appears on a separate fouls line (fouls over 0.5, 85.7%, 6/7, last 5 100%, -265 at DraftKings), and the same 90 minutes drive both, so do not stack them.
Mason Greenwood OVER 0.5 Shots on Target (Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma)
Greenwood hit the target at least once in 8 of 8 recent matches, with the last five at 100% as well. FanDuel has it at -290, and you are paying up for a perfect record on an 8-match sample. No matchup line is attached to this row, so nothing in the data speaks to how Roma defends him. He also shows up on a shots line further down this page, and both bets settle on the same night.
Joshua Kimmich OVER 0.5 Fouls Won (Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt)
Kimmich sits at 9 of 10 recent matches (90%), but the last five dip to 80%. That is one miss in five, so the two windows disagree slightly, and the trend points the wrong way. The -180 at DraftKings is still a premium price. Bodø allows 3 fouls won per match to midfielders, 10th-fewest of 29 against a league average of 3.1 (14-match sample), which the snapshot calls an average matchup. Nothing here says Bodø is a soft spot for a midfielder looking for contact.
Luis Díaz OVER 0.5 Fouls (Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt)
Díaz is at 9 of 10 (90%) overall and 100% across the last five, so his trend runs the opposite direction from Kimmich’s. He is drawing fouls more often lately, not less. The matchup is the problem. Bodø allows 2.1 fouls per match to forwards, 6th-fewest of 29 against a league average of 2.7 (14-match sample), and the snapshot flags it as a tough spot for the over. At -235 you are paying a premium into a defense that gives up among the fewest to his position.
Stepan Chaloupek OVER 1.5 Tackles (Slavia Praha vs Lens)
Chaloupek cleared 1.5 tackles in 7 of 8 recent matches (87.5%), with the last five at 80%. The price is -225 at bet365, which is steep for a defensive stat that partly depends on how much of the ball his side has. This row carries no matchup line and the research notes have no tackle-specific context, so the hit rate and the price are the whole picture. A small dip in the last five is worth knowing about when the juice is this heavy.
Mason Greenwood OVER 3.5 Shots (Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma)
This is the volume version of the same bet. Greenwood went over 3.5 shots in 7 of 8 recent matches (87.5%), with the last five at 80%, a step below his shots-on-target rate. The -135 at Stake is the friendliest price on this page for any Greenwood market. Because he carries two picks here, treat them as one position rather than two. Shot volume and shots on target move together, so a quiet night in Rome sinks both tickets at once.
Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt OVER 2.5 Total Goals (Team Market)
This one is a fixture market, not a player prop. Bayern went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches and Bodø in 90%, for a combined 85%. Bodø is carrying the number on their own, and 90% is the stronger side of that split. The last-10 goal averages in those matches back it up: Bayern at 4.6, Bodø at 3.6. The catch is the -800 price, where you risk eight to win one, and it comes from the same game that supplies three picks above.
Which Picks Here Are Correlated?
Stacking props from one match does not spread your risk. It multiplies it. Here is what is tied together today:
- Saibari fouls won (Bayern) and Saibari fouls (Bayern) are the same player. One performance drives both lines, so pick a side or leave both alone.
- Greenwood shots on target and Greenwood shots over 3.5 are the same player. If Roma smothers him, both lose.
- Saibari fouls won, Kimmich fouls won, Díaz fouls and the Bayern vs Bodø/Glimt goals line all come from one fixture. A slow, low-event game drags on every one of them.
How Does StatsBench Build These Hit Rates?
Every percentage on this page is a count. StatsBench pulls real match logs, finds the line for the market, and checks whether the player cleared it in each of his recent matches. The last 5 and last 10 windows are kept separate on purpose. When they disagree, that disagreement is the useful part, not something to paper over.
Soccer rows here do not carry a gap number, so you will not see one. Where StatsBench shows a recent-form gap elsewhere, it is the last-10 over rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability. That is a form signal, not a projection, and a small 10-match sample inflates it. A wide gap off a tiny sample is a reason to shop the line, not a lock.
Responsible Gambling
This is research, not a guarantee. Nothing on this page wins every time, and a strong hit rate over seven or eight matches can still lose on any given night. Betting is 21+, it should be fun, and it should never be funded with money you need. Long-run variance is real, so size your bets with that in mind and take a break when it stops being enjoyable. If gambling stops feeling like entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does StatsBench calculate the hit rates on this page?
Every rate is counted from real match logs. StatsBench finds the line for the market, then checks whether the player cleared it in each of his recent matches, and splits the last 5 from the last 10. Nothing here is a projection or a model’s opinion.
What does the matchup line on a fouls prop mean?
It shows how many fouls the opponent gives up per match to that position, with their rank out of the league and the league average. Rank 1 means the fewest allowed, which is the toughest matchup for an over. If a prop row has no matchup line, StatsBench has no opponent data that bears on it, so the analysis stays with the player.
Are these Champions League prop picks guaranteed to win?
No. A hit rate describes what already happened, not what will happen next. Even a 9 of 10 record loses roughly one time in ten, and betting is 21+ with real long-run variance. Treat every pick as research you still have to judge for yourself.
Should I combine multiple picks from the same match?
Be careful. Picks that share a player or a fixture are correlated, so stacking them multiplies the same risk instead of spreading it. Today, three player props plus the goals line all come from Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt, and Greenwood appears on two markets.
What is the recent-form gap and why doesn’t every pick have one?
It is the last-10 over rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability, so it measures recent form against the price. Soccer rows do not carry a gap figure, so none is shown here. A big gap on a 10-match sample is a reason to shop the line, not proof of value.