Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 6, 2026)

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EFL Championship prop picks: today's featured picks
Derby County logo

Derby County23rd in the EFL Championship
FINAL3 – 1
Bolton Wanderers logo

Bolton Wanderers17th in the EFL Championship

EFL Championship · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 3:00 PM ET

How the bets settled

ResultDerby County winFinished 3-1
Total goalsOver 2.54 goals, 1.5 over
Both teams to scoreYesDerby County 3, Bolton Wanderers 1

Match report

Derby County came from behind to beat Bolton Wanderers 3-1. R. Rodrigues put Bolton ahead in the 42nd minute from G. Larrazabal’s assist, but R. Nyambe levelled in the 46th from M. Fuseini’s assist and J. Robinson made it 2-1 in the 49th from C. Morris’s assist before R. Brewster sealed it in the 90+4th minute. Derby took the points despite Bolton dominating the ball.

Bolton had 70% possession and 17 shots to Derby’s 9, with 6 shots on target to 5 and big chances 5 to 4. Expected goals were 1.69 for Bolton and 1.55 for Derby, so the scoreline ran against the shot and possession profile. Derby’s pre-match form read LLDLL and their home record 0-2-5, while Bolton arrived with form WLLDW and an away record 3-2-2.

Both teams had a 57% both-teams-to-score rate before the match, with over 2.5 goals at 57% for Derby and 64% for Bolton. The match landed on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. Yellow cards finished 1-2.

How the props finished

3 of 8 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Carlton John Morris Over 0.5 tackles -105 DraftKings 0 Missed
Samuel George Dalby Over 0.5 shots on target -137 bet365 1 Cleared
Rúben da Rocha Rodrigues Over 0.5 shots on target +100 BetRivers 1 Cleared
David Ozoh Over 1.5 fouls -135 DraftKings 6 Cleared
Max Conway Over 0.5 fouls -137 bet365 0 Missed
R. Nyambe Over 0.5 fouls -137 bet365 0 Missed
Akinlolu Richard Olamide Famewo Over 0.5 fouls -200 bet365 0 Missed
Thierry Mikael Gale Over 0.5 tackles -200 bet365 0 Missed

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the match, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Goals

  • 42′ R. Rodrigues, assist G. Larrazabal Bolton Wanderers
  • 46′ R. Nyambe, assist M. Fuseini Derby County
  • 49′ J. Robinson, assist C. Morris Derby County
  • 90+4′ R. Brewster Derby County
Match stats Derby County Bolton Wanderers
Expected goals (xG) 1.55 1.69
Ball possession 30% 70%
Total shots 9 17
Shots on target 5 6
Big chances 4 5
Corner kicks 4 6
Passes 69% (160/232) 88% (484/553)
Yellow cards 1 2

How the key matchups went

  • Brewster: 1 shot, 1 shot on target, 0 fouls won. Conway: 0 fouls committed, 3 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
  • Fuseini: 2 shots, 1 shot on target, 2 fouls won. Stephenson: 5 fouls committed, 2 tackles, 1 yellow card.
  • Morris: 1 shot, 1 shot on target, 1 foul won. Forino-Joseph: 0 fouls committed, 2 tackles, 0 yellow cards. Famewo: 0 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards.
  • Larrazabal: 3 shots, 1 shot on target, 0 fouls won. Robinson: 0 fouls committed, 4 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
  • Gale: 3 shots, 1 shot on target, 0 fouls won. Nyambe: 0 fouls committed, 3 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
  • Dalby: 1 shot, 1 shot on target, 1 foul won. Duffy: 1 foul committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards. Sanderson: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.

Box score

DerbyBolton

Derby

Player MIN G A SH SOT xG KP PAS TKL FC FS YC SV RAT
Morris C. 89 0 1 1 1 0.04 3 16/23 0 2 1 0 0 7.9
Sanderson D. 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 12/13 0 0 0 0 0 6.4
Ozoh D. 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 24/25 5 6 0 0 0 7.5
Clark B. 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0 20/30 1 0 2 0 0 6.9
Duffy S. 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0 8/12 1 1 0 0 0 6.8
Fuseini M. 89 0 1 2 1 0.53 2 5/12 0 2 2 0 0 7.5
Brewster R. 90 1 0 1 1 0.33 0 8/14 1 0 0 1 0 7.1
Travis L. 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 13/19 0 0 1 0 0 5.9
Nyambe R. 90 1 0 1 1 0.31 0 12/15 3 0 0 0 0 7.6
Robinson J. 90 1 0 1 1 0.17 1 25/32 4 0 0 0 0 8.0
Widell Zetterstrom J. 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 11/30 0 0 0 0 5 8.3
Salvesen L. 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0/0 0 0 0 0 0 –
Mowatt A. 17 0 0 1 0 0.01 0 6/7 2 1 1 0 0 6.6
Fraulo O. 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0/0 0 0 0 0 0 –

Bolton

Player MIN G A SH SOT xG KP PAS TKL FC FS YC SV RAT
Stephenson L. 71 0 0 1 1 0.03 0 24/31 2 5 0 1 0 5.8
Larrazabal G. 90 0 1 3 1 0.46 2 36/43 3 1 0 1 0 6.7
Conway M. 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 2 43/53 3 0 2 0 0 6.5
Bonham J. 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 25/32 0 0 0 0 2 6.0
Simons X. 71 0 0 1 0 0.11 1 41/45 1 1 0 0 0 6.3
Famewo A. 82 0 0 1 0 0.02 0 73/80 1 0 0 0 0 6.8
Gale T. 70 0 0 3 1 0.17 1 15/17 0 0 0 0 0 6.8
Forino-Joseph C. 90 0 0 2 1 0.14 0 62/65 2 0 2 0 0 6.5
Rodrigues R. 89 1 0 2 1 0.29 5 36/44 3 0 4 0 0 7.7
Dalby S. 90 0 0 1 1 0.23 1 9/13 0 0 1 0 0 6.2
Sheehan J. 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 4 84/92 1 1 0 0 0 7.6
Iling Junior S. 19 0 0 1 0 0.03 0 10/10 0 0 1 0 0 6.4
Lott M. 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0/0 0 0 0 0 0 –
Ito A. 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 14/14 0 0 0 0 0 6.4
Dong K. 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 10/11 0 1 2 0 0 6.3
Bair T. 8 0 0 1 0 0.17 0 2/3 0 0 0 0 0 –

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

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Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers pre-game preview

Derby County hosts Bolton Wanderers in Friday’s EFL Championship match, with the three-way moneyline pricing Derby as the narrow home favorite at +163, Bolton at +180 and the draw at +260; the total is 2.5. Derby sits 23rd on 7 points with a 1-4-9 record and form of LLDLL, including a 0-2-5 home mark. Bolton is 17th on 17 points at 5-2-7, with form WLLDW and a 3-2-2 away record.

Derby’s absentees include Agyemang, Clarke, Forsyth, Murkin and Taylor. Dalby over 0.5 shots on target is -137 and has cleared in 7 of his last 10; Carlton John Morris over 0.5 tackles is -105 and has cleared in 7 of his last 10. Those are the cleaner research angles in a match where the table form and injury list point to Derby’s depth being tested.

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Confirmed lineups

The official starting XIs. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.

Derby County 4-2-3-1Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1

1 Widell Zetterstrom
24 Nyambe
25 Duffy
28 Sanderson
14 Robinson
27 Travis (C)
4 Ozoh
10 Brewster
8 Clark
16 Fuseini
9 Morris
1 Bonham
27 Stephenson
3 Forino-Joseph
14 Famewo
25 Conway
4 Simons
8 Sheehan (C)
22 Larrazabal
20 Rodrigues
11 Gale
10 Dalby

Derby County missing: P. Agyemang (achilles tendon), E. Cashin (inactive), M. Clarke (calf), C. Forsyth (knee), R. Hedges (inactive), S. Langas (injury), D. Murkin (hamstring), S. Szmodics (injury), C. Taylor (injury), J. Ward (inactive)

Bolton Wanderers missing: G. Bazunu (injury), E. Erhahon (thigh), R. Hardie (hamstring), J. McAtee (knee), J. Nelson (inactive), E. Toal (injury)

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Form and head to head

Derby County23rd in the tableLLDLL1W 4D 9L · 0.50 points a match
No recent meetings
Bolton Wanderers17th in the tableWLLDW5W 2D 7L · 1.21 points a match

Clean sheets and goal trends

Derby County

7%

Clean sheet1/14

36%

Failed to score5/14

57%

Both scored8/14

57%

Over 2.58/14

Bolton Wanderers

29%

Clean sheet4/14

29%

Failed to score4/14

57%

Both scored8/14

64%

Over 2.59/14

Attack and defense

Attacking

Derby CountyBolton Wanderers
7%Win %36%
49%Possession %50%
57%Both teams scored %57%
36%Scored first %36%
  • 0.8Scored per match1.4
  • 9.9Shots per match12.0
  • 3.7Shots on target per match4.5
  • 0.0Big chances per match0.0

Defensive

Derby CountyBolton Wanderers
64%Loss %50%
36%Failed to score %29%
7%Clean sheet %29%
64%Conceded first %50%
  • 2.1Conceded per match1.9
  • 13.6Shots against per match12.4
  • 16.7Tackles per match14.6
  • 12.5Fouls per match10.1

Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.

Recent results

Derby LLDLL L 0-4 vs Norwich · L 1-4 at Millwall · D 1-1 at Sheffield Utd · L 0-1 vs Stoke City · L 1-4 at QPR
Bolton WLLDW W 1-0 at Charlton · L 2-3 vs Bristol City · L 1-5 vs Middlesbrough · D 0-0 at Southampton · W 3-1 at Wolves

Last five EFL Championship results, most recent first.

Season numbers

Derby Bolton
Table 23 (7 pts) 17 (17 pts)
Record (W-D-L) 1-4-9 5-2-7
Home / away record 0-2-5 (4-14) home 3-2-2 (10-11) away
Goals scored per match 0.79 1.36
Goals conceded per match 2.07 1.86
Shots / on target per match 9.86 / 3.71 12.00 / 4.50
Both teams scored 57% 57%
Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals 86% / 57% / 29% 64% / 64% / 50%
Clean sheets 7% 29%
Failed to score 36% 29%
Yellow cards per match 2.21 1.57
Corners per match 5.43 5.29

This season, 14 and 14 matches.

Referee

James Bell averages 3.4 yellow cards and 20.4 fouls per match over 10 matches this season (league average 3.8 and 22.1).

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 5:29 PM ET.

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Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers odds by sportsbook

Book DER ML BOL ML Over Under
bet365 – – O 0.5 -2000 U 0.5 +1000

Highlighted: the best price in each column before kickoff. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement chart

Total 2.5 → 2.5
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More on these teams: All EFL Championship prop picks · All EFL Championship predictions

Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · football player props guide · how parlays work

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