Lightning vs Blue Jackets Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 12, 2026)

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NHL prop picks: today's featured picks
Tampa Bay Lightning logo

Lightning11-6 · 9-8 ATS5th in the East
7:00 PM ETThu, Nov 12
Columbus Blue Jackets logo

Blue Jackets7-9 · 6-10 ATS15th in the East

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Nationwide Arena

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning -112 -1.5 +220 O 6.5 +110
Columbus Blue Jackets +100 +1.5 -238 U 6.5 -125

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 5:49 PM ET.

Lightning vs Blue Jackets preview

Tampa Bay is a slight moneyline favorite at -112, with Columbus at +100; the total is 6.5 and Columbus is +1.5 on the spread. In the last meeting, Tampa Bay lost 2-5 at home to Columbus on March 10, 2026. Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, Tampa Bay is 4-5 straight up and 2-3 ATS, with the over 5-0.

Tampa Bay’s last 10 is 6-4 straight up and 6-4 ATS, with a 3-4 loss at Winnipeg on November 8. Columbus’s last 10 is 4-6 straight up and 5-5 ATS, with a 1-4 loss to Florida on November 10.

Tampa Bay allows 24.65 shots on goal per game, ranking third, while Columbus allows 28.06, ranking 20th; pace is close at 54.5 for Tampa Bay and 54.6 for Columbus. Columbus has Elvis Merzlikins on injured reserve, expected to miss 4-6 months with a shoulder injury, and Tampa Bay has Brayden Point on injured reserve with an undisclosed issue. Adam Fantilli’s over 1.5 shots on goal is -260 after clearing in 9 of his last 10.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Lightning vs Blue Jackets player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Adam Fantilli CBJ Over 1.5 shots on goal -260 FanDuel 90% (9/10) 80%
Charlie Coyle CBJ Over 1.5 shots on goal -120 FanDuel 80% (8/10) 80%
Zach Werenski CBJ Over 2.5 shots on goal -174 FanDuel 70% (7/10) 80%
Kent Johnson CBJ Over 1.5 shots on goal -156 FanDuel 50% (5/10) 40%
Denton Mateychuk CBJ Over 0.5 goals +650 FanDuel 30% (3/10) 0%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 5:49 PM ET.

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Matthew KniesOver 1.5 shots on goal3/10
Valeri NichushkinOver 1.5 shots on goal3/10
Steven LorentzOver 0.5 goals2/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Zach Werenski vs Lightning

Zach WerenskiD, CBJ
VS
LightningDefense vs defensemen
Good matchup for Zach WerenskiLightning allow 2.3 points a game to defensemen, 11th most in the league. Werenski averages 0.9 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest22nd of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.57/10avg 0.9 · 22nd of 32 vs D · -205FanDuel
Shots on goal over 2.57/10avg 3.7 · 18th of 32 vs D · -174FanDuel
Assists over 0.55/10avg 0.7 · 21st of 32 vs D · -132FanDuel

Adam Fantilli vs Lightning

Adam FantilliF, CBJ
VS
LightningDefense vs forwards
Tough matchup for Adam FantilliLightning allow 17.1 shots a game to forwards, 3rd fewest in the league. Fantilli averages 3.1 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest3rd of 32, shotsSoftest
Shots on goal over 1.59/10avg 3.1 · 3rd of 32 vs F · -260FanDuel
Points over 0.53/10avg 0.4 · 11th of 32 vs F · -130FanDuel
Goals over 0.53/10avg 0.3 · 10th of 32 vs F · +230FanDuel

Charlie Coyle vs Lightning

Charlie CoyleF, CBJ
VS
LightningDefense vs forwards
Tough matchup for Charlie CoyleLightning allow 17.1 shots a game to forwards, 3rd fewest in the league. Coyle averages 1.9 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest3rd of 32, shotsSoftest
Shots on goal over 1.58/10avg 1.9 · 3rd of 32 vs F · -120FanDuel
Goals over 0.52/10avg 0.3 · 10th of 32 vs F · +275FanDuel

Betting trends

  • The over is 7-3 in Lightning’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Lightning vs Blue Jackets defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Lightning defense facing the Blue Jackets

Pos Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Blocks
F 2.510th 3.412th 5.811th 17.13rd 16.620th 6.928th
D 0.520th 1.821st 2.322nd 7.518th 7.430th 9.531st

Softest spot: 9.5 blocks a game to defensemen, 2nd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 17.1 shots a game to forwards, 3rd fewest in the league.

Blue Jackets defense facing the Lightning

Pos Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Blocks
F 2.819th 3.817th 6.619th 19.412th 13.83rd 6.321st
D 0.414th 2.028th 2.425th 8.629th 3.51st 7.69th

Softest spot: 8.6 shots a game to defensemen, 4th most in the league.

Toughest spot: 3.5 hits a game to defensemen, the fewest in the league.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov R1.3 PTS · 3.0 SOG · 0.3 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 @ WPG 21:36 0 0 1 0
11/7 @ MIN 25:31 1 1 9 0
11/5 vs CHI 20:26 0 0 3 0
11/3 vs DET 21:40 0 2 3 0
10/31 @ NSH 23:41 0 3 1 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs CBJ
PTS 1.3 (17) 1.3 (9) 1.6 (83) 2.5 (2)
1 · 4
SOG 3.0 (17) 2.4 (9) 3.1 (83) 2.0 (2)
1 · 3

Brandon Hagel L1.1 PTS · 3.8 SOG · 0.5 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 @ WPG 19:20 1 0 3 1
11/7 @ MIN 16:46 0 0 0 0
11/5 vs CHI 16:48 0 1 3 0
11/3 vs DET 22:05 0 0 1 0
10/31 @ NSH 20:13 0 0 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs CBJ
PTS 1.1 (17) 0.8 (9) 1.1 (78) 0.7 (3)
0 · 2 · 0
SOG 3.8 (17) 3.1 (9) 3.0 (78) 2.3 (3)
1 · 2 · 4

Jake Guentzel C1.1 PTS · 2.8 SOG · 0.6 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 @ WPG 20:47 0 0 1 1
11/7 @ MIN 24:34 2 1 7 1
11/5 vs CHI 20:36 0 1 1 0
11/3 vs DET 19:30 0 0 0 0
10/31 @ NSH 25:56 1 0 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs CBJ
PTS 1.1 (17) 1.0 (9) 1.1 (88) 1.3 (3)
0 · 3 · 1
SOG 2.8 (17) 3.1 (9) 2.7 (88) 4.3 (3)
2 · 4 · 7

Columbus Blue Jackets

Kent Johnson C1.0 PTS · 2.1 SOG · 0.5 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/10 vs FLA 16:45 0 0 0 0
11/6 @ BUF 16:22 1 1 5 0
11/5 vs DAL 20:03 0 1 3 0
11/3 vs COL 18:54 0 1 1 0
10/31 @ DAL 19:18 0 1 1 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 1.0 (16) 0.8 (10) 0.3 (76) 0.7 (3)
1 · 0 · 1
SOG 2.1 (16) 1.9 (10) 1.5 (76) 1.3 (3)
1 · 0 · 3

Zach Werenski D0.9 PTS · 3.1 SOG · 0.1 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/10 vs FLA 28:02 0 0 6 1
11/6 @ BUF 24:38 1 0 3 0
11/5 vs DAL 29:21 1 0 5 0
11/3 vs COL 24:32 0 2 2 1
10/31 @ DAL 28:01 0 1 4 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 0.9 (16) 0.7 (10) 1.1 (75) 1.7 (3)
2 · 2 · 1
SOG 3.1 (16) 3.7 (10) 3.5 (75) 1.0 (3)
0 · 3 · 0

Charlie Coyle C0.8 PTS · 1.8 SOG · 0.2 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/10 vs FLA 15:15 0 0 2 2
11/6 @ BUF 18:21 0 0 2 0
11/5 vs DAL 23:09 0 0 1 3
11/3 vs COL 20:18 2 2 3 0
10/31 @ DAL 23:57 0 0 2 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 0.8 (16) 1.1 (10) 0.7 (82) 1.7 (3)
1 · 3 · 1
SOG 1.8 (16) 1.9 (10) 1.7 (82) 1.3 (3)
1 · 2 · 1

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Lightning 11-6 9-8 10-7 8-0 3-6
Blue Jackets 7-9 6-10 7-9 6-4 1-5

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Lightning vs Blue Jackets head-to-head

Lightning are 4-5, 2-3 ATS, O/U 5-0 in the last 9 meetings. Last time: Lightning lost 2-5 on March 10, 2026.

Date Venue Lightning result ATS O/U
Mar 10, 26 Lightning home L 2-5 L -1.5 O 6.5
Jan 24, 26 Blue Jackets home L 5-8 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 18, 25 Blue Jackets home L 2-3 – –
Mar 4, 25 Lightning home W 6-2 – –
Dec 17, 24 Lightning home W 5-3 – –
Nov 21, 24 Blue Jackets home L 6-7 – –
Apr 9, 24 Lightning home W 5-2 W -1.5 O 5.5
Feb 10, 24 Blue Jackets home W 4-2 W -1.5 O 5.5
Nov 2, 23 Blue Jackets home L 2-4 L -1.5 O 5.5

Recent form

Tampa Bay Lightning: last 10 (6-4, 6-4 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 8, 26 @ WPG L 3-4 L -1.5 O 6.5
Nov 7, 26 @ MIN W 4-3 L -1.5 O 6.5
Nov 5, 26 vs CHI W 4-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Nov 3, 26 vs DET W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ NSH L 4-5 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 29, 26 vs WPG W 6-4 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 24, 26 @ UTA L 4-5 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 23, 26 @ COL L 3-6 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ VGK W 6-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs VAN W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5

Columbus Blue Jackets: last 10 (4-6, 5-5 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 10, 26 vs FLA L 1-4 L +1.5 U 5.5
Nov 6, 26 @ BUF L 2-5 L +1.5 O 6.5
Nov 5, 26 vs DAL W 2-1 W +1.5 U 5.5
Nov 3, 26 vs COL W 7-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ DAL L 1-3 L +1.5 U 5.5
Oct 29, 26 @ CAR L 2-3 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 27, 26 @ PHI W 4-3 L -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 24, 26 vs VGK W 2-1 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 20, 26 vs TOR L 2-6 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 18, 26 @ MIN L 1-2 W +1.5 U 6.5

Injury report

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Brayden Point (C): Injured Reserve, Undisclosed

Columbus Blue Jackets

  • Elvis Merzlikins (G): Injured Reserve, Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Lightning defense Blue Jackets defense
Goals allowed per game 3 (14th of 32) 3.19 (18th of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game 24.65 (3rd of 32) 28.06 (20th of 32)
Points allowed per game 8.12 (13th of 32) 9 (18th of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game 2.29 (21st of 32) 2.25 (20th of 32)
Pace (possessions) 54.5 (22nd) 54.6 (20th)

Venue and weather

Nationwide Arena · Columbus, OHIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Lightning vs Blue Jackets odds by sportsbook

Book TB spread CBJ spread TB ML CBJ ML Over Under
BetRivers -1.5 +220 +1.5 -278 -112 -105 O 6.5 +110 U 6.5 -135
Caesars -1.5 +200 +1.5 -245 -115 -103 O 6.5 +108 U 6.5 -132
DraftKings -1.5 +195 +1.5 -238 -118 -102 O 6.5 +110 U 6.5 -130
FanDuel -1.5 +205 +1.5 -260 -114 -105 O 6.5 +106 U 6.5 -130
Fanatics -1.5 +200 +1.5 -255 -120 +100 O 6.5 +105 U 6.5 -125

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 5:49 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Blue Jackets spread +1.5 +1.5 –
Total 6.5 6.5 –
Lightning moneyline -118 -118 –
Blue Jackets moneyline -102 -102 –

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

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More on these teams: Tampa Bay Lightning stats · Columbus Blue Jackets stats · Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Nov 11 · Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets Nov 10 · All NHL prop picks

Betting guides: NHL player props guide · NHL shots on goal strategy · NHL points props guide · how parlays work

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