Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 12, 2026)

Wild13-7 · 13-7 ATS1st in the West

7:00 PM ETThu, Nov 12

Maple Leafs8-12 · 9-11 ATS12th in the East

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Minnesota Wild	-156	-1.5 +154	O 6.5 +100
Toronto Maple Leafs	+140	+1.5 -180	U 6.5 -115

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Wild vs Maple Leafs preview

Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday, November 12, 2026, 7:00 PM ET, has Minnesota at -156 on the moneyline, Toronto at +1.5 on the spread and a total of 6.5. The DraftKings opener was Toronto +1.5 with a 6.5 total and has not moved.

The last meeting on March 15, 2026, ended with Minnesota losing 2-4 at home. Minnesota is 13-7 and 13-7 ATS this season, 7-3 and 7-3 ATS over its last 10, after a 2-1 win at Montreal on November 10. Toronto is 8-12 and 9-11 ATS, 4-6 and 5-5 ATS over its last 10, after a 3-6 loss to Colorado on November 10.

The main angle is defense: Minnesota allows 2.2 goals per game (rank 1), 25.75 shots on goal (rank 6) and 6 points (rank 1), while Toronto allows 3.45 goals (rank 24), 29.5 shots (rank 27) and 9.25 points (rank 24). Toronto also has Morgan Rielly listed day-to-day and Kirill Marchenko on Injured Reserve with a lower-body issue. Quinn Hughes over 0.5 points is -320 and has cleared it 9 of last 10, with StatsBench projecting 1.3 points.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Wild vs Maple Leafs player props

Player	Prop	Best price	Last 10	Last 5	Projection
Quinn Hughes MIN	Over 0.5 points	-320 FanDuel	90% (9/10)	100%	1.3
Jack Roslovic TOR	Over 0.5 points	-115 FanDuel	80% (8/10)	80%	0.8
Joel Eriksson Ek MIN	Over 0.5 points	-205 FanDuel	80% (8/10)	80%	0.8
Auston Matthews TOR	Over 0.5 points	-230 FanDuel	80% (8/10)	80%	1
Matt Boldy MIN	Over 0.5 points	-320 FanDuel	80% (8/10)	80%	0.9

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 5:19 PM ET.

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Kirill KaprizovOver 0.5 assists7/10

Maxim ShabanovOver 1.5 shots on goal6/10

William NylanderOver 2.5 shots on goal6/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Quinn Hughes vs Maple Leafs

Quinn HughesD, MIN

Maple LeafsDefense vs defensemen

Good matchup for Quinn HughesMaple Leafs allow 2.5 points a game to defensemen, 4th most in the league. Hughes averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest29th of 32, pointsSoftest

Points over 0.59/10avg 1.4 · 29th of 32 vs D · -320

Assists over 0.58/10avg 1 · 25th of 32 vs D · -225

Shots on goal over 1.56/10avg 2.2 · 30th of 32 vs D · -260

Joel Eriksson Ek vs Maple Leafs

Joel Eriksson EkF, MIN

Maple LeafsDefense vs forwards

Even matchupMaple Leafs allow 6.8 points a game to forwards, 12th most in the league. Ek averages 1 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest21st of 32, pointsSoftest

Points over 0.58/10avg 1 · 21st of 32 vs F · -205

Shots on goal over 2.56/10avg 3.1 · 24th of 32 vs F · -118

Assists over 0.55/10avg 0.6 · 21st of 32 vs F · +100

Matt Boldy vs Maple Leafs

Matt BoldyF, MIN

Maple LeafsDefense vs forwards

Even matchupMaple Leafs allow 6.8 points a game to forwards, 12th most in the league. Boldy averages 0.9 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest21st of 32, pointsSoftest

Points over 0.58/10avg 0.9 · 21st of 32 vs F · -320

Assists over 0.57/10avg 0.7 · 21st of 32 vs F · -136

Shots on goal over 3.55/10avg 3.9 · 24th of 32 vs F · -102

Darren Raddysh vs Wild

Darren RaddyshD, TOR

WildDefense vs defensemen

Even matchupWild allow 7.5 shots a game to defensemen, 16th fewest in the league. Raddysh averages 2 against a line of 1.5.

Toughest16th of 32, shotsSoftest

Shots on goal over 1.56/10avg 2 · 16th of 32 vs D · -260

Points over 0.55/10avg 0.7 · 5th of 32 vs D · -113

Assists over 0.55/10avg 0.6 · 3rd of 32 vs D · +124

Auston Matthews vs Wild

Auston MatthewsF, TOR

WildDefense vs forwards

Tough matchup for Auston MatthewsWild allow 4.3 points a game to forwards, the fewest in the league. Matthews averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest1st of 32, pointsSoftest

Points over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 1st of 32 vs F · -230

Shots on goal over 2.57/10avg 3.2 · 6th of 32 vs F · -220

Assists over 0.56/10avg 0.8 · 1st of 32 vs F · +110

Jack Roslovic vs Wild

Jack RoslovicF, TOR

WildDefense vs forwards

Tough matchup for Jack RoslovicWild allow 4.3 points a game to forwards, the fewest in the league. Roslovic averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest1st of 32, pointsSoftest

Points over 0.58/10avg 1.4 · 1st of 32 vs F · -115

Assists over 0.57/10avg 0.8 · 1st of 32 vs F · +172

Goals over 0.55/10avg 0.6 · 1st of 32 vs F · +260

Betting trends

Wild are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
The over is 3-7 in Wild’ last 10 games.
Maple Leafs have failed to cover in 3 straight games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Wild vs Maple Leafs defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Wild defense facing the Maple Leafs

Pos	Goals	Assists	Points	Shots	Hits	Blocks
F	1.71st	2.51st	4.31st	18.36th	13.84th	5.311th
D	0.517th	1.33rd	1.85th	7.516th	6.522nd	8.519th

Softest spot: 6.5 hits a game to defensemen, 11th most in the league.

Toughest spot: 1.7 goals a game to forwards, the fewest in the league.

Maple Leafs defense facing the Wild

Pos	Goals	Assists	Points	Shots	Hits	Blocks
F	2.821st	4.021st	6.821st	20.924th	17.627th	4.73rd
D	0.729th	1.925th	2.529th	8.730th	6.217th	6.51st

Softest spot: 8.7 shots a game to defensemen, 3rd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 6.5 blocks a game to defensemen, the fewest in the league.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov L1.6 PTS · 3.1 SOG · 0.9 G per game

Date	Opp	TOI	G	A	SOG	HIT
11/10	@ MTL	20:43	1	0	1	0
11/7	vs TBL	20:26	0	1	5	1
11/6	vs SJS	19:28	1	3	2	0
11/3	@ PHI	21:29	0	1	1	0
11/1	@ WSH	21:43	1	0	2	0

Splits	Season	Road	2025-26	vs TOR
PTS	1.6 (20)	1.5 (13)	1.2 (89)	1.0 (2) 0 · 2
SOG	3.1 (20)	2.6 (13)	3.3 (89)	3.5 (2) 2 · 5

Quinn Hughes D1.4 PTS · 2.6 SOG · 0.3 G per game

Date	Opp	TOI	G	A	SOG	HIT
11/10	@ MTL	29:28	0	1	1	0
11/7	vs TBL	29:29	0	1	1	1
11/6	vs SJS	31:00	1	2	2	1
11/3	@ PHI	29:47	0	1	1	0
11/1	@ WSH	29:41	1	0	3	1

Splits	Season	Road	2025-26	vs TOR
PTS	1.4 (20)	1.2 (13)	1.1 (85)	1.0 (2) 0 · 2
SOG	2.6 (20)	2.4 (13)	2.4 (85)	1.5 (2) 2 · 1

Matt Boldy L0.9 PTS · 4.2 SOG · 0.4 G per game

Date	Opp	TOI	G	A	SOG	HIT
11/10	@ MTL	20:47	0	1	2	2
11/7	vs TBL	21:56	0	0	2	1
11/6	vs SJS	19:26	0	1	7	0
11/3	@ PHI	20:15	1	1	4	0
11/1	@ WSH	21:16	0	1	3	1

Splits	Season	Road	2025-26	vs TOR
PTS	0.9 (20)	0.8 (13)	1.1 (87)	0.0 (1) 0
SOG	4.2 (20)	3.8 (13)	3.4 (87)	4.0 (1) 4

Toronto Maple Leafs

Auston Matthews C1.4 PTS · 3.1 SOG · 0.6 G per game

Date	Opp	TOI	G	A	SOG	HIT
11/10	vs COL	17:47	0	1	4	3
11/8	vs NJD	19:30	0	0	4	2
11/7	vs MTL	22:57	0	1	3	1
11/3	vs UTA	20:01	0	2	5	0
10/31	@ VAN	20:13	1	0	2	0

Splits	Season	Home	2025-26	vs MIN
PTS	1.4 (20)	1.1 (12)	0.9 (60)	2.0 (1) 2
SOG	3.1 (20)	3.3 (12)	3.8 (60)	1.0 (1) 1

William Nylander R1.1 PTS · 2.8 SOG · 0.6 G per game

Date	Opp	TOI	G	A	SOG	HIT
11/10	vs COL	15:54	0	0	0	0
11/8	vs NJD	16:51	0	0	3	2
11/7	vs MTL	22:54	1	0	4	0
11/3	vs UTA	21:24	0	0	3	0
10/31	@ VAN	19:43	1	1	2	0

Splits	Season	Home	2025-26	vs MIN
PTS	1.1 (20)	0.8 (12)	1.2 (65)	0.0 (1) 0
SOG	2.8 (20)	2.4 (12)	2.4 (65)	2.0 (1) 2

Jack Roslovic C1.1 PTS · 2.7 SOG · 0.5 G per game

Date	Opp	TOI	G	A	SOG	HIT
11/10	vs COL	18:20	1	1	5	0
11/7	vs MTL	20:04	0	0	3	0
11/3	vs UTA	18:19	2	0	4	1
10/31	@ VAN	17:42	0	1	1	2
10/28	@ SEA	17:28	1	1	1	0

Splits	Season	Home	2025-26	vs MIN
PTS	1.1 (19)	0.8 (11)	0.5 (75)	1.0 (1) 1
SOG	2.7 (19)	3.2 (11)	2.0 (75)	4.0 (1) 4

Records

Team	Record	ATS	O/U	Home	Away
Wild	13-7	13-7	7-13	5-2	8-5
Maple Leafs	8-12	9-11	11-9	4-8	4-4

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Wild vs Maple Leafs head-to-head

Wild are 3-3, 2-2 ATS, O/U 3-1 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Wild lost 2-4 on March 15, 2026.

Date	Venue	Wild result	ATS	O/U
Mar 15, 26	Wild home	L 2-4	L -1.5	U 6.5
Jan 19, 26	Maple Leafs home	W 6-3	W +1.5	O 6.5
Jan 29, 25	Maple Leafs home	W 3-1	–	–
Nov 3, 24	Wild home	W 2-1	–	–
Nov 19, 23	Wild home	L 3-4	W +1.5	O 5.5
Oct 14, 23	Maple Leafs home	L 4-7	L +1.5	O 5.5

Recent form

Minnesota Wild: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date	Opponent	Result	ATS	O/U
Nov 10, 26	@ MTL	W 2-1	L -1.5	U 6.5
Nov 7, 26	vs TB	L 3-4	W +1.5	O 6.5
Nov 6, 26	vs SJ	W 4-1	W -1.5	U 6.5
Nov 3, 26	@ PHI	W 4-2	W -1.5	O 5.5
Nov 1, 26	@ WSH	W 5-1	W -1.5	U 6.5
Oct 29, 26	vs NYI	L 3-4	L -1.5	O 5.5
Oct 27, 26	@ UTA	W 3-1	W +1.5	U 6.5
Oct 25, 26	@ VAN	W 4-2	W -1.5	U 6.5
Oct 24, 26	@ SEA	W 5-1	W -1.5	U 6.5
Oct 22, 26	@ CGY	L 1-2	L -1.5	U 6.5

Toronto Maple Leafs: last 10 (4-6, 5-5 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date	Opponent	Result	ATS	O/U
Nov 10, 26	vs COL	L 3-6	L +1.5	O 6.5
Nov 8, 26	vs NJ	L 0-4	L +1.5	U 6.5
Nov 7, 26	vs MTL	L 2-4	L +1.5	U 6.5
Nov 3, 26	vs UTA	L 2-3	W +1.5	U 6.5
Oct 31, 26	@ VAN	W 4-2	W -1.5	U 6.5
Oct 28, 26	@ SEA	L 4-5	L -1.5	O 6.5
Oct 26, 26	@ CGY	L 2-5	L -1.5	O 6.5
Oct 24, 26	@ EDM	W 7-2	W +1.5	O 6.5
Oct 22, 26	vs NYR	W 5-4	W +1.5	O 6.5
Oct 20, 26	@ CBJ	W 6-2	W +1.5	O 6.5

Injury report

Minnesota Wild

Brock Faber (D): Injured Reserve, Faber
Filip Gustavsson (G): Injured Reserve, Gustavsson

Toronto Maple Leafs

Kirill Marchenko (R): Injured Reserve, Lower Body
Morgan Rielly (D): Day-To-Day, day-to-day
Miles Wood (L): Injured Reserve, Wood
Colton Sissons (C): Out, Lower Body
Max Domi (C): Injured Reserve, Domi
Zack MacEwen (R): Day-To-Day, day-to-day
Nick Blankenburg (D): Injured Reserve, Blankenburg
William Villeneuve (D): Injured Reserve, Knee
Marshall Rifai (D): Injured Reserve, Lower Body

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

	Wild defense	Maple Leafs defense
Goals allowed per game	2.2 (1st of 32)	3.45 (24th of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game	25.75 (6th of 32)	29.5 (27th of 32)
Points allowed per game	6 (1st of 32)	9.25 (24th of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game	1.85 (12th of 32)	1.3 (5th of 32)
Pace (possessions)	55.2 (15th)	57.6 (4th)

Venue and weather

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ONIndoor, weather won’t matter

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Wild vs Maple Leafs odds by sportsbook

Book	MIN spread	TOR spread	MIN ML	TOR ML	Over	Under
BetRivers	-1.5 +150	+1.5 -189	-156	+132	O 6.5 -104	U 6.5 -119
Caesars	-1.5 +153	+1.5 -182	-164	+139	O 6.5 -103	U 6.5 -120
DraftKings	-1.5 +154	+1.5 -185	-162	+136	O 6.5 -105	U 6.5 -115
FanDuel	-1.5 +152	+1.5 -188	-170	+140	O 6.5 -104	U 6.5 -118
Fanatics	-1.5 +145	+1.5 -180	-170	+140	O 6.5 +100	U 6.5 -120

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 5:19 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line	Open	Now	Move
Maple Leafs spread	+1.5	+1.5	–
Total	6.5	6.5	–
Wild moneyline	-148	-162	+2.2% win chance
Maple Leafs moneyline	+124	+136	-2.3% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

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More on these teams: Minnesota Wild stats · Toronto Maple Leafs stats · Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs Nov 10 · Minnesota Wild vs Montreal Canadiens Nov 10 · All NHL prop picks

Betting guides: NHL player props guide · NHL shots on goal strategy · NHL points props guide · how parlays work

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#	Team	W-L	PCT	GB
1	BOS	9-2	.818	-
2	PHI	9-3	.750	0.5
3	DET	7-3	.700	1.5
4	NY	6-4	.600	2.5
5	ATL	7-5	.583	2.5
6	TOR	5-5	.500	3.5
7	MIA	5-6	.455	4
8	CLE	5-6	.455	4
9	CHA	4-7	.364	5
10	WSH	4-7	.364	5
11	ORL	3-7	.300	5.5
12	IND	3-8	.273	6
13	BKN	2-8	.200	6.5
14	CHI	1-8	.111	7
15	MIL	1-10	.091	8

#	Team	W-L	PCT	GB
1	LAL	10-2	.833	-
2	SA	9-2	.818	0.5
3	MIN	8-3	.727	1.5
4	HOU	8-3	.727	1.5
5	GS	8-3	.727	1.5
6	OKC	8-3	.727	1.5
7	MEM	7-3	.700	2
8	POR	7-3	.700	2
9	DAL	7-4	.636	2.5
10	DEN	5-4	.556	3.5
11	PHX	4-6	.400	5
12	NO	4-7	.364	5.5
13	LAC	2-8	.200	7
14	SAC	1-10	.091	8.5
15	UTAH	1-10	.091	8.5

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	BUF	7-1	.875	W4
2	DEN	7-2	.778	W5
3	JAX	6-2	.750	W2
4	PIT	6-2	.750	W4
5	KC	6-2	.750	W1
6	CIN	6-2	.750	W4
7	NE	5-4	.556	L1
8	CLE	5-4	.556	L2
9	LV	4-5	.444	L1
10	BAL	4-5	.444	L4
11	HOU	3-5	.375	W1
12	NYJ	2-7	.222	L4
13	IND	2-7	.222	L5
14	MIA	1-7	.125	L2
15	TEN	1-7	.125	L2
16	LAC	0-8	.000	L8

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	SF	7-1	.875	W1
2	CHI	7-2	.778	W4
3	NYG	5-2-1	.688	W2
4	CAR	3-5	.375	L3
5	DET	6-2	.750	W4
6	MIN	6-2	.750	L2
7	GB	6-3	.667	W2
8	SEA	5-4	.556	W1
9	LAR	5-4	.556	W3
10	DAL	4-5	.444	W1
11	NO	3-5	.375	W1
12	TB	3-6	.333	L1
13	ATL	3-6	.333	L2
14	ARI	3-6	.333	L1
15	WSH	2-5-1	.313	L1
16	PHI	2-7	.222	L7

#	Team	W-L	PTS	STRK
1	MIN	13-3-0	30	W1
2	EDM	13-3-0	29	W2
3	VGK	12-5-0	26	W3
4	COL	11-6-0	24	W2
5	NSH	9-4-0	23	W5
6	DAL	10-5-0	22	W1
7	ANA	10-7-0	21	W5
8	UTA	10-7-0	21	L2
9	SEA	9-6-0	19	L1
10	WPG	8-8-0	19	W4
11	STL	8-8-0	18	W1
12	CGY	8-9-0	17	W1
13	SJ	8-11-0	17	W1
14	LA	5-9-0	12	L2
15	CHI	4-13-0	9	L6
16	VAN	3-16-0	7	L6

#	Team	Record
1	UGA	8-1
2	UTAH	9-0
3	ND	8-1
4	UCLA	9-0
5	MIA	8-1
6	IU	8-1
7	ALA	7-2
8	TEX	7-2
9	TENN	7-2
10	TTU	8-1
11	WAKE	8-1
12	BYU	7-2
13	UK	7-2
14	HOU	7-2
15	USC	7-2
16	IOWA	7-2
17	BOIS	8-1
18	ORE	6-3
19	MISS	6-3
20	SC	6-3
21	OSU	6-3
22	ARIZ	7-2
23	UNM	8-1
24	LSU	6-3
25	SMU	7-2

Wild vs Maple Leafs preview

StatsBench picks

Top Wild vs Maple Leafs player props

Key matchups

Quinn Hughes vs Maple Leafs

Joel Eriksson Ek vs Maple Leafs

Matt Boldy vs Maple Leafs

Darren Raddysh vs Wild

Auston Matthews vs Wild

Jack Roslovic vs Wild

Betting trends

Wild vs Maple Leafs defense vs position

Wild defense facing the Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs defense facing the Wild

Player stats and form

Minnesota Wild

Toronto Maple Leafs

Records

Wild vs Maple Leafs head-to-head

Recent form

Minnesota Wild: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Toronto Maple Leafs: last 10 (4-6, 5-5 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Injury report

Matchup ranks

Venue and weather

Wild vs Maple Leafs odds by sportsbook

Line movement from the open

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