Raptors vs Bucks Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 6, 2026)

by
NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Toronto Raptors logo

Raptors4-4 · 4-4 ATS5th in the East
FINAL121 – 107
Milwaukee Bucks logo

Bucks1-7 · 3-5 ATS15th in the East

NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Fiserv Forum

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Raptors 24 27 38 32 121
Bucks 29 31 27 20 107

How the bets settled

MoneylineRaptors wonClosed at -162
SpreadRaptors coveredRaptors -3.5, by 10.5
TotalUnder 228.5228 scored, 0.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Toronto Raptors beat Milwaukee Bucks 121-107 on November 6, swinging the game in the third quarter after Milwaukee led at halftime and then pulling away in the fourth. Toronto took control after the break and closed it out down the stretch.

RJ Barrett led Toronto with 27 points, Jamal Shead had 16 assists and Jakob Poeltl grabbed 11 rebounds. Milwaukee got 23 points and 10 assists from Tyler Herro, plus 11 rebounds from Brayden Burries. Toronto shot 47 percent from the field to Milwaukee’s 46, edged the three-point percentage 28 to 25, and won the rebound battle 42-37 while posting 28 assists to 25 and 12 steals to 7. Milwaukee’s 21 total turnovers to Toronto’s 16 helped the Raptors control the game.

For bettors, Toronto covered the closing 3.5-point spread by 10.5, and the closing total of 228.5 settled under by 0.5.

How our picks did

  • Ja’Kobe Walter OVER 0.5 BLK (+190): pending
  • Ryan Rollins OVER 9.5 FGA (-160): pending

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

How the props finished

4 of 9 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Kyle Kuzma Over 2.5 assists +125 BetRivers 3 Cleared
Kasparas Jakučionis Over 10.5 points + rebounds + assists -110 Fanatics 5 Missed
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 0.5 threes made -194 Kalshi 2 Cleared
A.J. Green Over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists -113 DraftKings 13 Cleared
Ryan Rollins Over 10.5 field goal attempts -120 Fanatics 3 Missed
Tyler Herro Over 2.5 threes made -127 Kalshi 1 Missed
Kel’el Ware Over 7.5 rebounds + assists -145 bet365 3 Missed
Brayden Burries Over 3.5 rebounds -138 Kalshi 11 Cleared
Ja’Kobe Walter Over 2.5 threes made -113 Kalshi 1 Missed
Immanuel Quickley Over 2.5 threes made -130 prophetexchange Did not play

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

Against the spread, start to finish

BucksRaptors
The score margin against the closing spread (Bucks +3.5). Blue: Bucks covering. Orange: Raptors covering.
+13.5Largest TOR cover
22%TOR covering
+18.5Largest MIL cover
78%MIL covering

Win probability

BucksRaptors
Blue: Bucks favored. Orange: Raptors favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Raptors

  • PointsRJ Barrett27
  • AssistsJamal Shead16
  • ReboundsJakob Poeltl11

Bucks

  • PointsTyler Herro23
  • AssistsTyler Herro10
  • ReboundsBrayden Burries11

Team stats

RaptorsBucks
47%FG%46%
28%3P%25%
77%FT%84%
42Rebounds37
28Assists25
58Points in the paint52
9Fast break points10
16Turnovers21
12Steals7
4Blocks7
17Biggest lead15

Box score

Toronto RaptorsMilwaukee Bucks

Toronto Raptors

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
RJ Barrett F 37 27 9-21 0-4 9-11 7 5 4 0 0 2 5 2 -2
Collin Murray-Boyles F 34 19 7-12 0-2 5-5 7 2 3 4 1 3 4 4 +17
Jakob Poeltl C 31 19 9-14 0-0 1-1 11 1 2 3 1 6 5 3 +6
Jamal Shead G 34 10 4-10 1-5 1-2 3 16 1 2 0 0 3 4 +23
Ja’Kobe Walter G 29 7 2-12 1-7 2-3 6 2 1 1 1 1 5 3 -12
Bench
Jamison Battle F 21 6 2-6 1-4 1-2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 +2
Allen Graves F 16 3 1-5 0-3 1-1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 +18
Jaden Bradley G 8 3 1-2 0-0 1-2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 -4
Alijah Martin G 31 27 9-11 6-7 3-4 4 1 4 2 1 2 2 4 +22
Kyle Anderson Did not play: Coach’s decision
Trayce Jackson-Davis Did not play: Coach’s decision
Immanuel Quickley Did not play: Right hamstring
Total 121 44-93 9-32 24-31 42 28 16 12 4 15 27 23

Team shooting: FG 47% · 3PT 28% · FT 77%

Milwaukee Bucks

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Kyle Kuzma F 32 13 6-9 1-4 0-0 4 3 3 2 0 2 2 4 +3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. F 28 14 4-10 2-7 4-4 3 3 1 0 1 2 1 1 -6
Myles Turner C 24 0 0-7 0-4 0-0 7 0 2 1 2 2 5 5 -4
Tyler Herro G 35 23 7-16 1-5 8-10 5 10 3 1 0 0 5 3 0
Brayden Burries G 38 21 8-14 1-5 4-6 11 6 1 0 1 5 6 4 -5
Bench
Nate Ament F 15 7 3-5 0-1 1-1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -11
Jericho Sims C 7 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 -7
Kel’el Ware C 13 4 2-7 0-4 0-0 3 0 1 0 1 2 1 2 0
AJ Green G 24 12 4-9 4-8 0-0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 4 -19
Ryan Rollins G 14 10 3-3 1-1 3-3 1 1 5 2 0 0 1 1 -12
Kasparas Jakucionis G 10 3 1-2 0-1 1-1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 -9
Ousmane Dieng Did not play: Coach’s decision
Caris LeVert Did not play: Coach’s decision
Gary Trent Jr. Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 107 38-82 10-40 21-25 37 25 20 7 7 14 23 28

Team shooting: FG 46% · 3PT 25% · FT 84%

Attendance 14,057 · Officials: Scott Foster, Mousa Dagher, Leon Wood

Recap: Alijah Martin’s career game helps short-handed Raptors beat the Bucks 121-107 in NBA Cup game (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

Top Raptors vs Bucks player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Kyle Kuzma MIL Over 2.5 assists +125 BetRivers 90% (9/10) 80% 3
Kasparas Jakučionis MIL Over 10.5 points + rebounds + assists -110 Fanatics 90% (9/10) 80% 12.7
Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL Over 0.5 threes made -194 Kalshi 90% (9/10) 80% –
Myles Turner MIL Over 2.5 stls blks -110 DraftKings 80% (8/10) 100% –
A.J. Green MIL Over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists -113 DraftKings 80% (8/10) 80% 12.5

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 10:54 PM ET.

Betting trends

  • The over has hit in 5 straight Raptors games.
  • Raptors are 0-4 ATS as underdogs in their last 10 games.
  • The over is 7-3 in Bucks’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

Trade Raptors vs Bucks on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the game and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

Polymarket

Affiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.

Raptors vs Bucks pre-game preview

The market lists Toronto as a -137 moneyline favorite, with Milwaukee +3.5 on the spread and the total at 228.5, after opening at MIL +7.5 and 231.5.

Toronto won the last meeting 122-94 on Feb. 22, 2026. Toronto is 4-4 straight up and 4-4 ATS this season and 5-5 straight up and 5-5 ATS over its last 10, after losing 109-128 at Denver. Milwaukee is 1-7 straight up and 3-5 ATS this season and 2-8 straight up and 4-6 ATS over its last 10, after losing 102-109 at Boston. The last 10 head-to-head meetings are 5-5 straight up, with Toronto 2-0 ATS.

The defensive ranks are a useful angle: Milwaukee allows 122.3 points (27th), 48.6 rebounds (29th), 28.1 assists (26th) and 14.9 threes (25th), while Toronto allows 41.4 rebounds (6th). On the StatsBench props side, Kyle Kuzma over 2.5 assists at +125 cleared in 9 of last 10 with a model projection of 3, and Kasparas Jakučionis over 10.5 points+rebounds+assists at -110 cleared 9 of last 10 with a 12.7 projection.

The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Toronto Raptors

Scottie Barnes SF23.5 PTS · 7.6 REB · 5.1 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ DEN 31 17 6 6 1
11/2 @ LAC 37 22 15 8 0
11/1 @ LAL 36 29 6 5 0
10/30 vs ORL 38 41 5 5 1
10/28 vs ORL 31 28 6 4 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIL
PTS 23.5 (8) 19.2 (5) 18.6 (87) 21.3 (3)
24 · 23 · 17
REB 7.6 (8) 8.8 (5) 7.4 (87) 6.3 (3)
11 · 3 · 5
AST 5.1 (8) 5.4 (5) 6.1 (87) 3.7 (3)
2 · 6 · 3

RJ Barrett SF20.9 PTS · 6.0 REB · 3.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ DEN 33 22 5 3 3
11/2 @ LAC 37 26 6 3 2
11/1 @ LAL 32 22 10 5 4
10/30 vs ORL 33 9 3 5 1
10/28 vs ORL 32 25 9 6 3
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIL
PTS 20.9 (8) 22.6 (5) 19.8 (64) 16.7 (3)
7 · 23 · 20
REB 6.0 (8) 6.4 (5) 5.5 (64) 6.7 (3)
6 · 8 · 6
AST 3.9 (8) 3.4 (5) 3.4 (64) 3.0 (3)
3 · 4 · 2

Kawhi Leonard SF19.5 PTS · 7.5 REB · 1.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/23 @ WAS 27 16 9 1 2
10/21 vs CHI 23 23 6 2 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIL
PTS 19.5 (2) 16.0 (1) 27.8 (66) 20.0 (1)
20
REB 7.5 (2) 9.0 (1) 6.4 (66) 8.0 (1)
8
AST 1.5 (2) 1.0 (1) 3.6 (66) 2.0 (1)
2

Milwaukee Bucks

Tyler Herro SG22.3 PTS · 5.0 REB · 3.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ BOS 32 25 5 3 4
11/2 @ MIN 30 21 6 3 4
10/31 vs CLE 27 15 3 2 4
10/28 vs HOU 27 23 3 0 4
10/26 vs IND 32 23 10 7 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TOR
PTS 22.3 (8) 23.8 (4) 20.6 (34) 14.5 (2)
15 · 14
REB 5.0 (8) 5.3 (4) 4.7 (34) 4.5 (2)
4 · 5
AST 3.9 (8) 3.3 (4) 4.2 (34) 5.0 (2)
4 · 6

Jaime Jaquez Jr. SF16.8 PTS · 6.6 REB · 2.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ BOS 30 18 2 2 4
11/2 @ MIN 28 19 8 2 2
10/31 vs CLE 23 8 7 5 1
10/28 vs HOU 27 19 4 2 3
10/26 vs IND 24 8 6 0 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TOR
PTS 16.8 (8) 13.5 (4) 15.3 (76) 11.5 (2)
15 · 8
REB 6.6 (8) 7.0 (4) 5.0 (76) 4.0 (2)
2 · 6
AST 2.8 (8) 3.0 (4) 4.7 (76) 3.5 (2)
4 · 3

Ryan Rollins SG11.3 PTS · 4.8 REB · 4.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ BOS 23 13 9 5 2
11/2 @ MIN 17 10 3 2 1
10/31 vs CLE 25 9 3 7 1
10/28 vs HOU 17 4 4 5 0
10/26 vs IND 31 19 2 4 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TOR
PTS 11.3 (8) 10.8 (4) 17.3 (74) 15.5 (4)
21 · 17 · 11 · 13
REB 4.8 (8) 4.0 (4) 4.6 (74) 4.5 (4)
9 · 4 · 0 · 5
AST 4.5 (8) 5.5 (4) 5.6 (74) 3.3 (4)
1 · 5 · 5 · 2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Raptors 4-4 4-4 5-3 2-1 2-3
Bucks 1-7 3-5 5-3 1-3 0-4

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Raptors vs Bucks head-to-head

Raptors are 5-5, 2-0 ATS, O/U 0-2 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Raptors won 122-94 on February 22, 2026.

Date Venue Raptors result ATS O/U
Feb 22, 26 Bucks home W 122-94 W -4.5 U 219.5
Dec 18, 25 Bucks home W 111-105 W -4.5 U 218.5
Nov 4, 25 Raptors home W 128-100 – –
Oct 24, 25 Raptors home L 116-122 – –
Jan 17, 25 Bucks home L 112-130 – –
Jan 6, 25 Raptors home L 104-128 – –
Nov 12, 24 Bucks home L 85-99 – –
Apr 5, 24 Bucks home W 117-111 – –
Nov 15, 23 Raptors home L 112-128 – –
Nov 1, 23 Raptors home W 130-111 – –

Recent form

Toronto Raptors: last 10 (5-5, 5-5 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ DEN L 109-128 L +4.5 O 230.5
Nov 2, 26 @ LAC W 125-118 W -6.5 O 220.5
Nov 1, 26 @ LAL L 125-131 L +3.5 O 224.5
Oct 30, 26 vs ORL L 114-121 L -5.5 O 226.5
Oct 28, 26 vs ORL W 129-99 W -5.5 O 224.5
Oct 25, 26 @ MIN L 94-117 L +3.5 U 228.5
Oct 23, 26 @ WSH W 112-102 W -9.5 U 236.5
Oct 21, 26 vs CHI W 135-92 W -10.5 U 237.5
Apr 12, 26 vs BKN W 136-101 W -23.5 O 218.5
Apr 10, 26 @ NY L 95-112 L +6.5 U 218.5

Milwaukee Bucks: last 10 (2-8, 4-6 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ BOS L 102-109 W +12.5 U 222.5
Nov 2, 26 @ MIN L 100-112 L +11.5 U 233.5
Oct 31, 26 vs CLE L 111-136 L +8.5 O 234.5
Oct 28, 26 vs HOU L 100-132 L +8.5 O 226.5
Oct 26, 26 vs IND W 110-102 W +3.5 U 239.5
Oct 24, 26 @ PHI L 116-127 W +12.5 O 234.5
Oct 23, 26 vs CHI L 125-132 L -1.5 O 241.5
Oct 21, 26 @ WSH L 116-128 L +4.5 O 239.5
Apr 12, 26 @ PHI L 106-126 L +16.5 O 225.5
Apr 10, 26 vs BKN W 125-108 W -10.5 O 218.5

Injury report

Toronto Raptors

  • Nate Bittle (C): Out, Right Avulsion Fracture
  • Kawhi Leonard (SF): Out, Left Knee Injury Management
  • Kevin McCullar Jr. (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Malachi Smith (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Scottie Barnes (SF): Out, Left Groin Strain
  • Immanuel Quickley (PG): Out, Right Hamstring Tightness / Soreness

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Kam Jones (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Bogoljub Marković (SF): Out, G League – On Assignment
  • Pete Nance (PF): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Cormac Ryan (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Raptors defense Bucks defense
Points allowed per game 113.5 (17th of 30) 122.3 (27th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 41.4 (6th of 30) 48.6 (29th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 25.6 (11th of 30) 28.1 (26th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 12.4 (12th of 30) 14.9 (25th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 103.8 (5th) 103.6 (7th)

Venue and weather

Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee, WIIndoor, weather won’t matter
The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

Raptors vs Bucks odds by sportsbook

Book TOR spread MIL spread TOR ML MIL ML Over Under
bet365 +3.5 -120 -3.5 -110 +140 -180 O 224.5 -115 U 224.5 -115
Caesars +2.5 -110 -2.5 -120 +125 -160 O 226.5 -120 U 226.5 -110
Fanatics +3.5 -125 -3.5 -105 +120 -160 O 227.5 -110 U 227.5 -120

Highlighted: the best price in each column before tip-off. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Bucks spread +7.5 +3.5 -4
Total 231.5 228.5 -3
Raptors moneyline -226 -162 -7.5% win chance
Bucks moneyline +187 +136 +7.5% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Bucks spread +7.5 → +3.5
Total 231 → 228.5
The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

More on these teams: Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets Nov 4 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Nov 4 · All NBA prop picks

Betting guides: NBA player props guide · how to predict NBA props · NBA first basket guide · how parlays work

21+. Research, not a guarantee: every bet can lose. Bet within your means; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Today's NBA picks

VJ EdgecombeOVER 9.5 field goal attempts · @ CHI
10/10
Daniel GaffordOVER 1.5 stls blks · vs BKN
10/10
Caleb WilsonOVER 0.5 steals · vs PHI
8/8
All of today's NBA picks →
Today's prop boardHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today's props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the board →

Latest

1NHL Hits Props: How the Market Works
2Parlay Odds Explained: What Your Payout Means
3G2 Ares vs Inner Circle Academy Prediction
4What a Prop Finder App Should Actually Do
5What Are NCAAF Picks Against the Spread?

The morning slate, by email

Join the StatsBench DiscordPicks, results and prop talk, live on game days