How the bets settled
Match report
Watford and Middlesbrough drew 0-0, with no goals scored. Watford picked up one yellow card and Middlesbrough three.
Middlesbrough dominated the stats: 2.11 xG to Watford’s 0.31, 18 shots to 8, four shots on target to one, and four big chances to none. Possession was 74% to 26%, and Middlesbrough completed 90% of passes to Watford’s 77%. Corners were closer at 6-5.
Before the match Middlesbrough sat second with 28 points and form LWWDW, while Watford were 20th with 14 points and form WLLWL. Middlesbrough had both teams to score in 71% and over 2.5 goals in 71%, compared with Watford’s 50% and 43%, but this match finished without a goal. The pre-match both teams to score price was yes at -145 and no at +115.
How the props finished
3 of 7 cleared
| Player | Line | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 shots | -115 |
0 Missed | |
| Over 2.5 tackles | -145 |
6 Cleared | |
| Over 0.5 shots | -150 |
0 Missed | |
| Over 0.5 fouls won | -160 |
1 Cleared | |
| Over 1.5 tackles | -175 |
1 Missed | |
| Over 0.5 fouls | -182 |
2 Cleared | |
| Over 0.5 fouls | -200 |
0 Missed |
Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the match, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.
Goals
No goals.
| Match stats | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.36 | 1.99 |
| Ball possession | 26% | 74% |
| Total shots | 8 | 18 |
| Shots on target | 1 | 4 |
| Big chances | 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 6 |
| Passes | 77% (175/227) | 90% (600/669) |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
How the key matchups went
- Kayembe: 2 shots, 0 shots on target, 0 fouls won. Byram: 2 fouls committed, 2 tackles, 1 yellow card.
- Bravo: 2 shots, 1 shot on target, 0 fouls won. Brittain: 1 foul committed, 1 tackle, 1 yellow card.
- Nabizada: 0 shots, 0 shots on target, 3 fouls won. Phillips: 0 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards. Malanda: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
- Doumbia: 1 shot, 0 shots on target, 0 fouls won. Phillips: 0 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards. Malanda: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
- Cozier-Duberry: 1 shot, 0 shots on target, 0 fouls won. Zemura: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
- Sarmiento: 6 shots, 2 shots on target, 2 fouls won. Diatta: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
- Strelec: 1 shot, 0 shots on target, 1 foul won. Keben: 1 foul committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards. Pollock: 2 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards. Mlacic: 2 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards.
Box score
Watford
| Player | MIN | G | A | SH | SOT | xG | KP | PAS | TKL | FC | FS | YC | SV | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 2 | 5/8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 21/24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 25/26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 20/22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 20/25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | |
| 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 9/10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 8/22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8.0 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 17/21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 1 | 12/18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 1 | 20/26 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | |
| Bola M. | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 5/6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Kjerrumgaard L. | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Traore O. H. | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 8/11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Mavididi S. | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 |
Middlesbrough
| Player | MIN | G | A | SH | SOT | xG | KP | PAS | TKL | FC | FS | YC | SV | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 3 | 88/94 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | |
| 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 28/34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 | |
| 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 21/25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 9/13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 92/100 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.0 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 83/88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | |
| 86 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 30/35 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.4 | |
| 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 45/50 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 10/17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6.8 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 1 | 42/47 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | |
| 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 103/109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 | |
| Arfsten M. | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 13/18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.8 |
| Conway T. | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 9/9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Peart-Harris M. | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 20/22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Joseph K. | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 4/5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Castledine L. | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
StatsBench picks
No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.
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Watford vs Middlesbrough pre-game preview
Watford hosts Middlesbrough in Saturday’s EFL Championship match. The three-way moneyline has Middlesbrough as the -215 favorite, the draw at +390 and Watford at +600, with the total set at 3.5. Watford sits 20th with 14 points and a 4-2-8 record; its most recent league form is WLLWL. Middlesbrough is second with 28 points and 8-4-2, with form LWWDW. The last meeting was Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford on Apr 25, 2026.
Recent scoring profiles give the total and both-teams-to-score market some context. Watford scores 0.93 and concedes 1.64 per match, with both teams scored in 50% and over 2.5 in 43%. Middlesbrough scores 2.14 and concedes 1.36, with both teams scored in 71% and over 2.5 in 71%. Both teams to score is yes -150 and no +115.
Injury and prop angles matter. Watford lists Baah, Bove, Grieves and Ngakia injured; Middlesbrough lists Jones, Lankshear and Pukstas missing. Amario Cozier-Duberry’s over 0.5 score or assist is +100 and has cleared in 7 of his last 9. That is a research angle, not a recommendation.
Confirmed lineups
The official starting XIs. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.
Watford 5-3-2
Middlesbrough 4-3-3
1 Ravaglia
15 Diatta
4 Keben
6 Pollock (C)
29 Mlacic
33 Zemura
39 Kayembe
22 Payero
17 Bravo
21 Nabizada
20 Doumbia
1 Vitek
2 Brittain (C)
4 Phillips
29 Malanda
3 Byram
6 Berhalter
10 Morris
8 McGree
11 Cozier-Duberry
13 Strelec
16 SarmientoWatford missing: M. Antonio (inactive), K. Baah (knock), E. Bove (knee), N. Chikovani (inactive), S. Coulibaly (hamstring), J. Grieves (inactive), H. Kyprianou (yellow cards), J. Ngakia (thigh)
Middlesbrough missing: A. Jones (calf), W. Lankshear (injury), R. Pukstas (injury)
Form and head to head
Watford20th in the tableWLLWL4W 2D 8L · 1.00 points a match
Middlesbrough2nd in the tableLWWDW8W 4D 2L · 2.00 points a match- Apr 2026Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford
- Nov 2025Watford 3-0 Middlesbrough
Clean sheets and goal trends
Watford
Clean sheet2/14
Failed to score5/14
Both scored7/14
Over 2.56/14
Middlesbrough
Clean sheet3/14
Failed to score1/14
Both scored10/14
Over 2.510/14
Attack and defense
Attacking
- 0.9Scored per match2.1
- 9.9Shots per match15.1
- 3.9Shots on target per match6.3
- 0.0Big chances per match0.0
Defensive
- 1.6Conceded per match1.4
- 13.3Shots against per match9.3
- 15.3Tackles per match16.2
- 11.5Fouls per match9.5
Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.
Recent results
| Watford | WLLWL | W 1-0 vs Lincoln · L 2-3 at Norwich · L 0-1 at Wolves · W 2-0 vs Charlton · L 1-5 at Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | LWWDW | L 0-2 at Wrexham · W 3-0 vs Charlton · W 5-1 at Bolton · D 2-2 vs Cardiff · W 3-2 at Stoke City |
Last five EFL Championship results, most recent first.
Season numbers
| Watford | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Table | 20 (14 pts) | 2 (28 pts) |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-8 | 8-4-2 |
| Home / away record | 4-1-2 (9-9) home | 3-2-2 (13-10) away |
| Goals scored per match | 0.93 | 2.14 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.64 | 1.36 |
| Shots / on target per match | 9.86 / 3.93 | 15.07 / 6.29 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals | 71% / 43% / 21% | 86% / 71% / 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 21% |
| Failed to score | 36% | 7% |
| Yellow cards per match | 2.79 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 5.57 |
This season, 14 and 14 matches.
Referee
Gavin Ward averages 3.4 yellow cards and 21.2 fouls per match over 10 matches this season (league average 3.8 and 22.1).
Injury report
No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 2:35 PM ET.
Line movement chart
More on these teams: All EFL Championship prop picks · All EFL Championship predictions
Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · football player props guide · how parlays work
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