Heat vs Jazz Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 10, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Miami Heat logo

Heat4-6 · 2-8 ATS8th in the East
9:00 PM ETTue, Nov 10Win % 58–42
Utah Jazz logo

Jazz1-9 · 1-9 ATS15th in the West

NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Delta Center

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Miami Heat -360 -9.5 -105 O 228.5 -108
Utah Jazz +341 +9.5 -108 U 228.5 -111

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 2:13 PM ET.

Heat vs Jazz preview

The Tuesday NBA slate has Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, with Miami -455 on the moneyline, Utah +10.5 on the spread and the total at 228.5 after opening at 227.5. Miami is 4-6 straight up and 2-8 against the spread, coming off a 114-108 win at Sacramento. Utah is 1-9 straight up and 1-9 ATS after a 100-115 loss at Minnesota. The last meeting was February 9, 2026, when Miami lost 111-115 at home.

Miami’s defense allows 121.1 points, 29.9 assists and 16.4 threes per game, with both the assists and threes ranks at 30th, and Miami plays at a pace of 104.4 (rank 3). Utah’s injury report lists Keyonte George, Jusuf Nurkic and Jaren Jackson Jr. out and Lauri Markkanen questionable with a right wrist sprain, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable for Miami. The Airious Bailey over 4.5 rebounds prop is -165 after clearing in 9 of his last 10, and the StatsBench model projects 7.1.

StatsBench picks for this game

  • Airious Bailey OVER 5.5 REB (-110): pending

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Top Heat vs Jazz player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Bam Adebayo MIA Over 2.5 assists -160 bet365 90% (9/10) 80% 3.4
Davion Mitchell MIA Over 4.5 field goals made -160 Fanatics 90% (9/10) 100% –
Pelle Larsson MIA Over 0.5 steals -190 bet365 90% (9/10) 80% 1.2
Jaxson Hayes UTA Over 0.5 blocks -275 Fanatics 90% (9/10) 100% 1.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA Over 0.5 double double -370 BetRivers 80% (8/10) 100% –

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 2:13 PM ET.

The rest of the Heat vs Jazz propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Airious BaileyOver 0.5 blocks7/10
Bobby PortisOver 0.5 stls blks7/10
Lauri MarkkanenOver 7.5 rebounds + assists7/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Pelle Larsson vs Jazz

Pelle LarssonSG, MIA
VS
JazzDefense vs shooting guards
Good matchup for Pelle LarssonJazz allow 3.0 steals a game to shooting guards, the most in the league. Larsson averages 1.3 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest30th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.59/10avg 1.3 · 30th of 30 vs SG · -190bet365
Threes made over 0.58/10avg 1.3 · 1st of 30 vs SG · -212Kalshi
Assists over 3.56/10avg 3.7 · 2nd of 30 vs SG · +100Kalshi

Davion Mitchell vs Jazz

Davion MitchellPG, MIA
VS
JazzDefense vs point guards
Good matchup for Davion MitchellJazz allow 51 points + assists a game to point guards, 3rd most in the league. Mitchell averages 24.7 against a line of 21.5.
Toughest28th of 30, points + assistsSoftest
Points + assists over 21.58/10avg 24.7 · 28th of 30 vs PG · -105Fanatics
Threes made over 1.57/10avg 2.2 · 23rd of 30 vs PG · -144Kalshi
Assists over 7.57/10avg 8.5 · 26th of 30 vs PG · -108Kalshi

Airious Bailey vs Heat

Airious BaileySG, UTA
VS
HeatDefense vs shooting guards
Good matchup for Airious BaileyHeat allow 8.6 rebounds a game to shooting guards, 6th most in the league. Bailey averages 6.6 against a line of 5.5.
Toughest25th of 30, reboundsSoftest
Rebounds over 5.57/10avg 6.6 · 25th of 30 vs SG · -122Kalshi
Blocks over 0.57/10avg 1.3 · 17th of 30 vs SG · -120Fanatics
Assists over 1.56/10avg 1.9 · 25th of 30 vs SG · -150Kalshi

Darryn Peterson vs Heat

Darryn PetersonPG, UTA
VS
HeatDefense vs point guards
Even matchupHeat allow 2.1 steals a game to point guards, 15th fewest in the league. Peterson averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest15th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.57/10avg 1.2 · 15th of 30 vs PG · -233BetRivers
Threes made over 2.55/10avg 1.9 · 24th of 30 vs PG · +140bet365
Blocks over 0.54/10avg 0.8 · 22nd of 30 vs PG · +132bet365

Bam Adebayo vs Jazz

Bam AdebayoC, MIA
VS
JazzDefense vs centers
Even matchupJazz allow 3.0 assists a game to centers, 13th fewest in the league. Adebayo averages 3.2 against a line of 2.5.
Toughest13th of 30, assistsSoftest
Assists over 2.59/10avg 3.2 · 13th of 30 vs C · -160bet365
Steals over 1.57/10avg 2.1 · 10th of 30 vs C · +130FanDuel
Threes made over 0.55/10avg 0.6 · 19th of 30 vs C · -203Kalshi

Jaxson Hayes vs Heat

Jaxson HayesC, UTA
VS
HeatDefense vs centers
Tough matchup for Jaxson HayesHeat allow 1.4 blocks a game to centers, 7th fewest in the league. Hayes averages 1.6 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest7th of 30, blocksSoftest
Blocks over 0.59/10avg 1.6 · 7th of 30 vs C · -275Fanatics
Steals over 0.56/10avg 0.8 · 3rd of 30 vs C · +105bet365
Points over 10.53/10avg 9.5 · 9th of 30 vs C · +102bet105

Betting trends

  • Heat have failed to cover in 4 straight games.
  • The under has hit in 3 straight Heat games.
  • Heat are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10.
  • Jazz have failed to cover in 5 straight games.
  • Jazz are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10.
  • The over is 3-7 in Jazz’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected starting lineups

Projected starting fives. Teams confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip and this page updates then. Updated 2:13 PM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Miami HeatProjected
  1. PGDavion MitchellOver 21.5 points + assists8/10
  2. SGKlay ThompsonOver 1.5 assists6/10
  3. SFAndrew Wiggins
  4. PFGiannis AntetokounmpoOver 12.5 rebounds6/10
  5. CBam AdebayoOver 2.5 assists9/10
Utah JazzProjected
  1. PGIsaiah CollierOver 2.5 rebounds6/10
  2. SGDarryn PetersonOver 2.5 threes made5/10
  3. SFJosh Green
  4. PFAirious BaileyOver 5.5 rebounds7/10
  5. CJaxson Hayes

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Jusuf Nurkic (out), Jaren Jackson Jr. (out), Lauri Markkanen (out), Keyonte George (out), Trey Alexander (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

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Heat vs Jazz defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Heat defense facing the Jazz

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGIsaiah Collier 33.522nd 6.414th 8.916th 4.824th 48.819th
SGDarryn Peterson 33.830th 8.625th 7.125th 5.130th 49.428th
SFJosh Green 24.211th 10.614th 6.222nd 3.316th 41.013th
PFAirious Bailey 20.017th 10.224th 6.630th 2.525th 36.824th
CJaxson Hayes 15.49th 11.714th 2.43rd 1.528th 29.510th

Softest spot: 33.8 points a game to shooting guards, the most in the league. Darryn Peterson is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 2.4 assists a game to centers, 3rd fewest in the league. Jaxson Hayes is projected to start there.

Jazz defense facing the Heat

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGDavion Mitchell 40.128th 9.027th 10.926th 4.423rd 60.029th
SGKlay Thompson 23.815th 6.610th 3.92nd 2.21st 34.311th
SFAndrew Wiggins 24.312th 11.621st 4.611th 3.114th 40.512th
PFGiannis Antetokounmpo 22.825th 9.217th 2.33rd 2.726th 34.321st
CBam Adebayo 17.214th 12.823rd 3.013th 1.019th 33.016th

Softest spot: 40.1 points a game to point guards, 3rd most in the league. Davion Mitchell is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 2.2 threes a game to shooting guards, the fewest in the league. Klay Thompson is projected to start there.

The props these matchups touchEvery NBA line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Miami Heat

Giannis Antetokounmpo PF27.5 PTS · 12.8 REB · 5.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/8 @ SAC 33 29 14 3 0
11/5 @ GSW 31 20 14 4 1
11/4 @ LAC 40 27 14 6 0
11/2 @ LAL 34 30 12 7 0
10/30 vs IND 31 31 18 10 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs UTAH
PTS 27.5 (10) 24.0 (6) 27.6 (36) –
REB 12.8 (10) 13.0 (6) 9.8 (36) –
AST 5.3 (10) 4.3 (6) 5.4 (36) –

Bam Adebayo C18.5 PTS · 8.4 REB · 3.2 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/8 @ SAC 33 18 8 4 1
11/5 @ GSW 33 18 10 0 0
11/4 @ LAC 40 35 10 4 1
11/2 @ LAL 30 16 9 4 1
10/30 vs IND 33 27 9 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs UTAH
PTS 18.5 (10) 21.8 (6) 19.9 (74) 24.5 (2)
23 · 26
REB 8.4 (10) 9.0 (6) 9.9 (74) 13.0 (2)
11 · 15
AST 3.2 (10) 3.2 (6) 3.1 (74) 3.5 (2)
5 · 2

Davion Mitchell PG16.2 PTS · 1.7 REB · 8.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/8 @ SAC 40 17 3 11 2
11/5 @ GSW 37 22 2 8 4
11/4 @ LAC 43 11 2 10 0
11/2 @ LAL 29 15 0 7 4
10/30 vs IND 34 15 6 11 3
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs UTAH
PTS 16.2 (10) 16.2 (6) 9.6 (71) 12.0 (1)
12
REB 1.7 (10) 1.5 (6) 2.7 (71) 2.0 (1)
2
AST 8.5 (10) 9.3 (6) 6.5 (71) 5.0 (1)
5

Utah Jazz

Keyonte George PG21.1 PTS · 4.3 REB · 6.4 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/8 @ MIN 29 19 5 8 0
11/6 @ DAL 32 16 6 9 1
11/4 @ NOP 43 39 2 9 2
11/2 @ SAS 22 7 7 0 1
10/31 vs POR 28 8 3 4 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 21.1 (10) 21.6 (5) 23.6 (54) 19.0 (1)
19
REB 4.3 (10) 4.0 (5) 3.7 (54) 2.0 (1)
2
AST 6.4 (10) 6.6 (5) 6.1 (54) 5.0 (1)
5

Lauri Markkanen PF20.3 PTS · 7.7 REB · 2.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/6 @ DAL 34 24 8 1 8
11/4 @ NOP 38 21 10 4 5
11/2 @ SAS 30 22 8 3 4
10/31 vs POR 28 13 6 1 2
10/26 vs MEM 6 2 0 0 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 18.0 (8) 14.8 (4) 26.7 (42) 17.0 (1)
17
REB 6.8 (8) 4.8 (4) 6.9 (42) 8.0 (1)
8
AST 2.0 (8) 1.3 (4) 2.1 (42) 1.0 (1)
1

Jaren Jackson Jr. C19.7 PTS · 5.7 REB · 2.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs MEM 9 6 3 2 0
10/25 vs LAL 33 20 2 1 1
10/23 vs NOP 33 24 10 3 2
10/21 @ MEM 28 15 5 2 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 16.3 (4) 16.7 (3) 19.4 (48) 22.0 (1)
22
REB 5.0 (4) 5.0 (3) 5.7 (48) 5.0 (1)
5
AST 2.0 (4) 2.0 (3) 2.0 (48) 3.0 (1)
3

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Heat 4-6 2-8 4-6 1-3 3-3
Jazz 1-9 1-9 3-7 1-4 0-5

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Heat vs Jazz head-to-head

Heat are 3-3, 1-1 ATS, O/U 1-1 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Heat lost 111-115 on February 9, 2026.

Date Venue Heat result ATS O/U
Feb 9, 26 Heat home L 111-115 L -5.5 U 234.5
Jan 24, 26 Jazz home W 147-116 W -6.5 O 244.5
Jan 9, 25 Jazz home W 97-92 – –
Jan 4, 25 Heat home L 100-136 – –
Mar 2, 24 Heat home W 126-120 – –
Dec 30, 23 Jazz home L 109-117 – –

Recent form

Miami Heat: last 10 (4-6, 2-8 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 8, 26 @ SAC W 114-108 L -11.5 U 235.5
Nov 5, 26 @ GS L 100-120 L +3.5 U 236.5
Nov 4, 26 @ LAC W 117-116 L -6.5 U 233.5
Nov 2, 26 @ LAL L 117-138 L +1.5 O 237.5
Oct 30, 26 vs IND W 145-125 W -8.5 O 236.5
Oct 28, 26 @ ATL W 129-117 W +2.5 O 243.5
Oct 26, 26 vs DAL L 109-113 L -7.5 U 240.5
Oct 24, 26 @ CHA L 110-115 L -4.5 U 227.5
Oct 23, 26 vs DET L 111-128 L +2.5 O 235.5
Oct 21, 26 vs MIN L 106-131 L -1.5 U 240.5

Utah Jazz: last 10 (1-9, 1-9 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 8, 26 @ MIN L 100-115 L +12.5 U 222.5
Nov 6, 26 @ DAL L 100-112 L +6.5 U 226.5
Nov 4, 26 @ NO L 113-120 L +5.5 O 231.5
Nov 2, 26 @ SA L 97-119 L +16.5 U 226.5
Oct 31, 26 vs POR L 90-112 L +6.5 U 232.5
Oct 28, 26 vs SA L 111-117 W +13.5 U 232.5
Oct 26, 26 vs MEM L 105-110 L +1.5 U 237.5
Oct 25, 26 vs LAL L 123-132 L +6.5 O 237.5
Oct 23, 26 vs NO W 120-119 L -1.5 O 238.5
Oct 21, 26 @ MEM L 103-123 L +1.5 U 240.5

Injury report

Miami Heat

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF): Probable, Right Wrist Sprain

Utah Jazz

  • Jusuf Nurkic (C): Out, Right 2nd Plantar Plate Tear
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (C): Out, Right MCL Tear
  • Lauri Markkanen (PF): Out, Right Wrist Sprain
  • Keyonte George (PG): Out, Right Ankle Sprain
  • Trey Alexander (SG): Out, G League – Two-Way

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Heat defense Jazz defense
Points allowed per game 121.1 (26th of 30) 117.9 (24th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 45.5 (22nd of 30) 46.5 (23rd of 30)
Assists allowed per game 29.9 (30th of 30) 22.3 (2nd of 30)
Threes allowed per game 16.4 (30th of 30) 12.2 (10th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 104.4 (3rd) 102 (14th)

Venue and weather

Delta Center · Salt Lake City, UTIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Heat vs Jazz odds by sportsbook

Book MIA spread UTAH spread MIA ML UTAH ML Over Under
bet365 -8.5 -109 +8.5 -111 -360 +280 O 228.5 -109 U 228.5 -111
BetRivers -9.5 -114 +9.5 -108 -435 +310 O 227.5 -111 U 227.5 -110
Caesars -9.5 -105 +9.5 -115 -420 +320 O 228 -110 U 228 -110
DraftKings -9.5 -105 +9.5 -115 -438 +341 O 227.5 -108 U 227.5 -112
FanDuel -9.5 -112 +9.5 -108 -405 +320 O 228.5 -108 U 228.5 -114
Fanatics -9.5 -105 +9.5 -115 -425 +325 O 228 -110 U 228 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 2:13 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Jazz spread +10.5 +9.5 -1
Total 227.5 227.5 –
Heat moneyline -357 -438 +3.3% win chance
Jazz moneyline +285 +341 -3.3% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Jazz spread +10.5 → +9.5
Total 228.5 → 228.5
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More on these teams: Miami Heat stats · Utah Jazz stats · Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings Nov 8 · Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves Nov 8 · All NBA prop picks

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