Lightning vs Wild Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 7, 2026)

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NHL prop picks: today's featured picks
Tampa Bay Lightning logo

Lightning10-5 · 9-6 ATS4th in the East
8:00 PM ETSat, Nov 7
Minnesota Wild logo

Wild12-6 · 12-6 ATS1st in the West

NHL · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Grand Casino Arena

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning -133 -1.5 +180 O 6.5 -102
Minnesota Wild +116 +1.5 -209 U 6.5 -105

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 3:50 PM ET.

Lightning vs Wild preview

Saturday’s NHL slate includes Tampa Bay at Minnesota, and the market lists Tampa Bay as a -123 moneyline favorite with Minnesota at +120. The spread is Minnesota +1.5 and the total is 6.5, unchanged from the DraftKings opening line.

The last meeting was October 8, 2026, a 3-2 Tampa Bay home win. Tampa Bay is 10-5 overall and 9-6 ATS, with a 6-4 straight-up and 6-4 ATS mark over its last 10; its most recent game was a 4-1 win over Chicago on November 5. Minnesota is 11-6 overall and 11-6 ATS, with a 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 ATS mark over its last 10; its most recent game was a 4-2 win at Philadelphia on November 3.

The defensive ranks are the clearest angle. Minnesota ranks first in goals allowed at 2.24 and first in points allowed at 6, while Tampa Bay is eighth in goals allowed at 2.93. For a prop angle, Brayden Point over 0.5 points is -205, cleared in 8 of his last 10, and StatsBench projects 0.6.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Lightning vs Wild player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Michael McCarron MIN Over 1.5 hits -198 Stake 100% (10/10) 100% –
Joel Eriksson Ek MIN Over 0.5 points -132 ESPN BET 90% (9/10) 100% 0.7
Brayden Point TBL Over 0.5 points -156 Kalshi 80% (8/10) 100% 0.6
Matt Boldy MIN Over 0.5 points -186 Kalshi 80% (8/10) 100% 0.8
Quinn Hughes MIN Over 0.5 points -203 Kalshi 80% (8/10) 100% 1.2

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 3:50 PM ET.

The rest of the Lightning vs Wild propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Zemgus GirgensonsOver 1.5 hits8/10
Kirill KaprizovOver 0.5 goals7/10
Brandon HagelOver 2.5 shots on goal7/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Michael McCarron vs Lightning

Michael McCarronF, MIN
VS
LightningDefense vs forwards
Good matchup for Michael McCarronLightning allow 17.1 hits a game to forwards, 10th most in the league. McCarron averages 3.2 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest23rd of 32, hitsSoftest
Hits over 1.510/10avg 3.2 · 23rd of 32 vs F · -198Stake
Shots on goal over 1.55/10avg 2 · 2nd of 32 vs F · +125DraftKings
Goals over 0.53/10avg 0.3 · 6th of 32 vs F · +733Kalshi

Joel Eriksson Ek vs Lightning

Joel Eriksson EkF, MIN
VS
LightningDefense vs forwards
Tough matchup for Joel Eriksson EkLightning allow 5.6 points a game to forwards, 7th fewest in the league. Ek averages 1.1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest7th of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.59/10avg 1.1 · 7th of 32 vs F · -132ESPN BET
Shots on goal over 2.57/10avg 3.7 · 2nd of 32 vs F · -126prophetexchange
Goals over 0.55/10avg 0.5 · 6th of 32 vs F · +233Kalshi

Matt Boldy vs Lightning

Matt BoldyF, MIN
VS
LightningDefense vs forwards
Tough matchup for Matt BoldyLightning allow 5.6 points a game to forwards, 7th fewest in the league. Boldy averages 1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest7th of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.58/10avg 1 · 7th of 32 vs F · -186Kalshi
Assists over 0.57/10avg 0.8 · 10th of 32 vs F · +105BetMGM
Shots on goal over 3.56/10avg 4.4 · 2nd of 32 vs F · +111Caesars

Zemgus Girgensons vs Wild

Zemgus GirgensonsF, TBL
VS
WildDefense vs forwards
Tough matchup for Zemgus GirgensonsWild allow 13.9 hits a game to forwards, 6th fewest in the league. Girgensons averages 2.7 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest6th of 32, hitsSoftest
Hits over 1.58/10avg 2.7 · 6th of 32 vs F · -266Stake
Points over 0.53/10avg 0.3 · 1st of 32 vs F · +165BetMGM
Goals over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · 1st of 32 vs F · +733Kalshi

Brandon Hagel vs Wild

Brandon HagelF, TBL
VS
WildDefense vs forwards
Tough matchup for Brandon HagelWild allow 17.8 shots a game to forwards, 6th fewest in the league. Hagel averages 3.6 against a line of 2.5.
Toughest6th of 32, shotsSoftest
Shots on goal over 2.57/10avg 3.6 · 6th of 32 vs F · -110prophetexchange
Points over 0.56/10avg 0.9 · 1st of 32 vs F · -133Kalshi
Assists over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · 2nd of 32 vs F · +186Kalshi

Brayden Point vs Wild

Brayden PointF, TBL
VS
WildDefense vs forwards
Tough matchup for Brayden PointWild allow 4.2 points a game to forwards, the fewest in the league. Point averages 1.1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest1st of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.58/10avg 1.1 · 1st of 32 vs F · -156Kalshi
Assists over 0.55/10avg 0.7 · 2nd of 32 vs F · +127Kalshi
Shots on goal over 2.55/10avg 2.2 · 6th of 32 vs F · +141Caesars

Betting trends

  • Wild have covered the spread in 3 straight games.
  • Wild are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
  • The over is 3-7 in Wild’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected lines

Projected forward lines, defense pairs and goalies, updated 3:50 PM ET; this page updates whenever they change. The goalies are listed in projected order, which doesn’t confirm the starter. Under each player: his strongest prop line and how often he cleared it over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Tampa Bay LightningProjected

Forwards

L1Jake GuentzelOver 0.5 points 7/10Brayden PointOver 0.5 points 8/10Nikita KucherovOver 2.5 SOG 6/10
L2Brandon HagelOver 2.5 SOG 7/10Anthony CirelliOver 0.5 points 5/10Gage Goncalves
L3Ilya MikheyevOver 1.5 SOG 6/10Conor GeekiePontus HolmbergOver 0.5 points 6/10
L4Jeffrey VielZemgus Girgensons

Defense

D1J.J. MoserJohn CarlsonOver 1.5 SOG 5/10
D2Ryan McDonaghErik Cernak
D3Victor HedmanOver 0.5 points 6/10Emil Lilleberg
D4Charle-Edouard D’AstousOver 0.5 points 6/10

Goalies

GDennis HildebyOver 24.5 saves 5/10Andrei Vasilevskiy

Scratched: Max Crozier, Scott Sabourin
Injured or in doubt: Yanni Gourde

Minnesota WildProjected

Forwards

L1Kirill KaprizovOver 0.5 goals 7/10Joel Eriksson EkOver 0.5 points 9/10Matt BoldyOver 0.5 points 8/10
L2Maxim ShabanovOver 0.5 points 6/10Danila YurovOver 1.5 SOG 5/10Yakov TreninOver 4.5 hits 6/10
L3Blake ColemanOver 1.5 SOG 6/10Michael McCarronOver 1.5 hits 10/10Bobby Brink
L4Nico SturmRyan HartmanTyler PitlickOver 1.5 hits 6/10

Defense

D1Quinn HughesOver 0.5 assists 7/10Jonas BrodinOver 0.5 points 6/10
D2Olli MaattaOver 1.5 blocks 6/10Zach Bogosian
D3Matt KierstedDavid Spacek

Goalies

GCalvin PickardJesper Wallstedt

Scratched: Cameron Crotty
Injured or in doubt: Brock Faber, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno, Filip Gustavsson, Jared Spurgeon, Michael McCarron

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for NHL players. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Lightning vs Wild defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Lightning defense facing the Wild

Pos Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Blocks
F 2.36th 3.310th 5.67th 16.92nd 17.123rd 6.927th
D 0.627th 1.719th 2.321st 7.923rd 7.630th 9.127th

Softest spot: 7.6 hits a game to defensemen, 3rd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 16.9 shots a game to forwards, 2nd fewest in the league.

Wild defense facing the Lightning

Pos Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Blocks
F 1.71st 2.62nd 4.21st 17.86th 13.96th 5.513th
D 0.517th 1.12nd 1.63rd 7.416th 6.725th 8.723rd

Softest spot: 6.7 hits a game to defensemen, 8th most in the league.

Toughest spot: 1.7 goals a game to forwards, the fewest in the league.

The props these matchups touchEvery NHL line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov R1.3 PTS · 2.7 SOG · 0.3 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/5 vs CHI 20:26 0 0 3 0
11/3 vs DET 21:40 0 2 3 0
10/31 @ NSH 23:41 0 3 1 1
10/29 vs WPG 16:13 0 1 3 1
10/24 @ UTA 20:02 0 1 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 1.3 (15) 1.4 (7) 1.6 (83) 1.3 (3)
2 · 1 · 1
SOG 2.7 (15) 1.7 (7) 3.1 (83) 1.3 (3)
1 · 2 · 1

Brandon Hagel L1.1 PTS · 4.1 SOG · 0.5 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/5 vs CHI 16:48 0 1 3 0
11/3 vs DET 22:05 0 0 1 0
10/31 @ NSH 20:13 0 0 3 0
10/29 vs WPG 21:47 1 2 5 1
10/24 @ UTA 22:51 0 0 7 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 1.1 (15) 0.9 (7) 1.1 (78) 1.0 (3)
1 · 2 · 0
SOG 4.1 (15) 3.6 (7) 3.0 (78) 2.3 (3)
3 · 2 · 2

Jake Guentzel C1.0 PTS · 2.6 SOG · 0.5 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/5 vs CHI 20:36 0 1 1 0
11/3 vs DET 19:30 0 0 0 0
10/31 @ NSH 25:56 1 0 3 0
10/29 vs WPG 22:51 0 1 6 1
10/24 @ UTA 19:32 1 0 2 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 1.0 (15) 0.9 (7) 1.1 (88) 1.3 (3)
1 · 2 · 1
SOG 2.6 (15) 2.9 (7) 2.7 (88) 3.0 (3)
1 · 3 · 5

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov L1.7 PTS · 3.2 SOG · 0.9 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/6 vs SJS 19:28 1 3 3 0
11/3 @ PHI 21:29 0 1 1 0
11/1 @ WSH 21:43 1 0 2 0
10/29 vs NYI 21:50 0 1 3 2
10/27 @ UTA 24:36 1 1 4 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 1.7 (18) 2.0 (6) 1.2 (89) 0.7 (3)
1 · 0 · 1
SOG 3.2 (18) 4.0 (6) 3.3 (89) 1.7 (3)
0 · 2 · 3

Quinn Hughes D1.4 PTS · 2.8 SOG · 0.3 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/6 vs SJS 31:00 1 2 2 1
11/3 @ PHI 29:47 0 1 1 0
11/1 @ WSH 29:41 1 0 3 1
10/29 vs NYI 33:41 1 1 4 1
10/27 @ UTA 29:54 0 2 2 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 1.4 (18) 1.8 (6) 1.1 (85) 2.3 (4)
2 · 1 · 2 · 4
SOG 2.8 (18) 3.3 (6) 2.4 (85) 3.0 (4)
4 · 0 · 4 · 4

Matt Boldy L0.9 PTS · 4.4 SOG · 0.4 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/6 vs SJS 19:26 0 1 7 0
11/3 @ PHI 20:15 1 1 4 0
11/1 @ WSH 21:16 0 1 3 1
10/29 vs NYI 21:10 1 0 4 0
10/27 @ UTA 22:04 0 1 2 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 0.9 (18) 1.2 (6) 1.1 (87) 1.3 (3)
0 · 1 · 3
SOG 4.4 (18) 5.3 (6) 3.4 (87) 2.7 (3)
3 · 2 · 3

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Lightning 10-5 9-6 8-7 8-0 2-5
Wild 12-6 12-6 6-12 5-1 7-5

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Lightning vs Wild head-to-head

Lightning are 4-3, 3-2 ATS, O/U 2-3 in the last 7 meetings. Last time: Lightning won 3-2 on October 8, 2026.

Date Venue Lightning result ATS O/U
Oct 8, 26 Lightning home W 3-2 L -1.5 U 6.5
Mar 24, 26 Lightning home W 6-3 W -1.5 O 6.5
Mar 3, 26 Wild home L 1-5 L -1.5 U 6.5
Nov 1, 24 Wild home L 3-5 – –
Oct 24, 24 Lightning home L 2-4 – –
Jan 18, 24 Lightning home W 7-3 W -1.5 O 5.5
Jan 4, 24 Wild home W 4-1 W +1.5 U 5.5

Recent form

Tampa Bay Lightning: last 10 (6-4, 6-4 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 5, 26 vs CHI W 4-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Nov 3, 26 vs DET W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ NSH L 4-5 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 29, 26 vs WPG W 6-4 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 24, 26 @ UTA L 4-5 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 23, 26 @ COL L 3-6 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ VGK W 6-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs VAN W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 15, 26 vs SEA W 4-3 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 13, 26 @ NYR L 1-4 L -1.5 U 5.5

Minnesota Wild: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 6, 26 vs SJ W 4-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Nov 3, 26 @ PHI W 4-2 W -1.5 O 5.5
Nov 1, 26 @ WSH W 5-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 29, 26 vs NYI L 3-4 L -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 27, 26 @ UTA W 3-1 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 25, 26 @ VAN W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 24, 26 @ SEA W 5-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 22, 26 @ CGY L 1-2 L -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ EDM L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 18, 26 vs CBJ W 2-1 L -1.5 U 6.5

Injury report

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Yanni Gourde (C): Injured Reserve, Gourde

Minnesota Wild

  • Michael McCarron (C): Day-To-Day, McCarron
  • Brock Faber (D): Injured Reserve, Faber
  • Jared Spurgeon (D): Injured Reserve, Spurgeon
  • Filip Gustavsson (G): Injured Reserve, Gustavsson

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Lightning defense Wild defense
Goals allowed per game 2.93 (8th of 32) 2.17 (1st of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game 24.73 (4th of 32) 25.17 (6th of 32)
Points allowed per game 7.93 (9th of 32) 5.83 (1st of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game 1.8 (11th of 32) 1.56 (9th of 32)
Pace (possessions) 54.9 (16th) 55.3 (13th)

Venue and weather

Grand Casino Arena · Saint Paul, MNIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Lightning vs Wild odds by sportsbook

Book TB spread MIN spread TB ML MIN ML Over Under
bet365 -1.5 +180 +1.5 -220 -133 +113 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105
BetRivers -1.5 +175 +1.5 -217 -137 +115 O 6.5 -102 U 6.5 -120
Caesars -1.5 +175 +1.5 -209 -137 +116 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -107
DraftKings -1.5 +180 +1.5 -218 -135 +114 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105
FanDuel -1.5 +176 +1.5 -220 -134 +112 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105
Fanatics -1.5 +175 +1.5 -220 -140 +115 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 3:50 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Wild spread +1.5 +1.5 –
Total 6.5 6.5 –
Lightning moneyline -122 -135 +2.5% win chance
Wild moneyline +102 +114 -2.8% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Wild spread +1.5 → +1.5
Total 6.5 → 6.5
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More on these teams: San Jose Sharks vs Minnesota Wild Nov 6 · Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Nov 5 · All NHL prop picks

Betting guides: NHL player props guide · NHL shots on goal strategy · NHL points props guide · how parlays work

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