Detroit is priced as a -285 moneyline favorite, with Miami +6.5 and the total at 50; the DraftKings opener was MIA +6.5 and 47.5, and the total now sits at 49.5. Recent form favors Detroit straight up: the Lions are 5-2 and 2-4-1 ATS this season, 6-4 and 3-6-1 ATS over their last 10, most recently a 19-15 win over Minnesota. Miami is 1-6 and 4-3 ATS this season, 2-8 and 5-5 ATS over its last 10, most recently a 19-24 loss to New England.
The clearest defensive angle is Detroit’s pass defense: it allows 298.7 passing yards per game, rank 32, and 27 receptions, also rank 32. Miami’s pass defense allows 230.9 passing yards (rank 13) and 21.4 receptions (rank 15). On the prop side, Aidan Hutchinson over 0.5 sacks at -137 cleared in 8 of his last 10, and Jahmyr Gibbs over 0.5 anytime touchdown at -303 cleared in 8 of his last 10.
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 10:32 AM ET.
The rest of the Lions vs Dolphins propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.
Greg Dulcich vs Lions
Greg DulcichTE, MIA
VS
LionsDefense vs tight ends
Good matchup for Greg DulcichLions allow 8.7 receptions a game to tight ends, the most in the league. Dulcich averages 3.3 against a line of 3.5.
Toughest32nd of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 3.55/10avg 3.3 · 32nd of 32 vs TE · -125
Receiving yards over 39.55/10avg 39.1 · 32nd of 32 vs TE · -104
Receiving tds over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · 32nd of 32 vs TE · +236
Chris Bell vs Lions
Chris BellWR, MIA
VS
LionsDefense vs wide receivers
Good matchup for Chris BellLions allow 175.9 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, 4th most in the league. Bell averages 21.1 against a line of 24.5.
Toughest29th of 32, receiving yardsSoftest
Receiving yards over 24.54/7avg 21.1 · 29th of 32 vs WR · +104
Receptions over 2.53/7avg 1.7 · 31st of 32 vs WR · +142
Receiving tds over 0.50/7avg 0 · 13th of 32 vs WR · +367
Malik Willis vs Lions
Malik WillisQB, MIA
VS
LionsDefense vs quarterbacks
Good matchup for Malik WillisLions allow 20.9 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, 7th most in the league. Willis averages 33.2 against a line of 30.5.
Toughest26th of 32, rushing yardsSoftest
Rushing yards over 30.56/10avg 33.2 · 26th of 32 vs QB · -108
Passing yards over 208.54/10avg 168.4 · 32nd of 32 vs QB · -108
Passing tds over 1.52/10avg 0.8 · 32nd of 32 vs QB · +151
Jared Goff vs Dolphins
Jared GoffQB, DET
VS
DolphinsDefense vs quarterbacks
Even matchupDolphins allow 230.9 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, 13th fewest in the league. Goff averages 285.6 against a line of 261.5.
Toughest13th of 32, passing yardsSoftest
Passing yards over 261.57/10avg 285.6 · 13th of 32 vs QB · -109
Passing tds over 1.56/10avg 2 · 31st of 32 vs QB · -192
Rushing yards over 19.50/10avg 1.6 · 4th of 32 vs QB · +1200
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Dolphins
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET
VS
DolphinsDefense vs wide receivers
Tough matchup for Amon-Ra St. BrownDolphins allow 9.3 receptions a game to wide receivers, 2nd fewest in the league. Brown averages 7.6 against a line of 6.5.
Toughest2nd of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 6.57/10avg 7.6 · 2nd of 32 vs WR · +106
Receiving yards over 76.53/10avg 83.2 · 4th of 32 vs WR · -113
Receiving tds over 0.53/10avg 0.5 · 10th of 32 vs WR · -138
Jameson Williams vs Dolphins
Jameson WilliamsWR, DET
VS
DolphinsDefense vs wide receivers
Tough matchup for Jameson WilliamsDolphins allow 9.3 receptions a game to wide receivers, 2nd fewest in the league. Williams averages 4 against a line of 3.5.
Toughest2nd of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 3.57/10avg 4 · 2nd of 32 vs WR · -108
Receiving yards over 52.55/10avg 61.8 · 4th of 32 vs WR · -106
Receiving tds over 0.53/10avg 0.5 · 10th of 32 vs WR · +129
Betting trends
Dolphins have covered the spread in 4 straight games.
The over has hit in 3 straight Dolphins games.
From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.
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Lions vs Dolphins defense vs position
What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.
Lions defense facing the Dolphins
Pos
Pass yds
Rush yds
Rec yds
Catches
TDs
QB
297.732nd
20.926th
–
–
2.632nd
RB
–
74.97th
24.18th
4.014th
0.69th
WR
–
–
175.929th
14.131st
0.913th
TE
–
–
97.732nd
8.732nd
1.632nd
Softest spot: 297.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the most in the league.
Toughest spot: 74.9 rushing yards a game to running backs, 7th fewest in the league.
Dolphins defense facing the Lions
Pos
Pass yds
Rush yds
Rec yds
Catches
TDs
QB
230.913th
7.74th
–
–
2.331st
RB
–
105.925th
40.625th
5.326th
0.45th
WR
–
–
121.34th
9.32nd
0.710th
TE
–
–
69.028th
6.929th
0.929th
Softest spot: 2.3 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, 2nd most in the league.
Toughest spot: 9.3 receptions a game to wide receivers, 2nd fewest in the league.
The props these matchups touchEvery NFL line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff QB286.9 pass yds · 2.0 TD per game
Date
Opp
CMP/ATT
YDS
TD
INT
RUSH
11/1
vs MIN
18/25
176
1
1
0
10/25
vs GB
22/32
303
2
0
-1
10/11
@ ARI
19/30
271
3
0
1
10/5
@ CAR
32/52
412
1
0
0
9/27
vs NYJ
25/32
269
2
0
6
Splits
Season
Road
2025
vs MIA
Pass yds
280.6 (7)
336.7 (3)
268.5 (17)
–
Pass TD
2.1 (7)
2.7 (3)
2.0 (17)
–
Jahmyr Gibbs RB90.1 rush yds · 5.0 rec per game
Date
Opp
ATT
YDS
TD
REC
REC YDS
11/1
vs MIN
23
153
1
2
15
10/25
vs GB
29
116
0
5
27
10/11
@ ARI
25
151
2
5
56
10/5
@ CAR
15
46
1
4
31
9/27
vs NYJ
20
99
2
7
65
Splits
Season
Road
2025
vs MIA
Rush yds
110.4 (7)
83.0 (3)
71.9 (17)
–
Rec
4.9 (7)
5.0 (3)
4.5 (17)
–
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR7.1 rec · 83.9 yds per game
Date
Opp
TGT
REC
YDS
TD
11/1
vs MIN
8
7
46
0
10/25
vs GB
11
9
153
0
10/11
@ ARI
11
6
69
0
10/5
@ CAR
11
8
75
0
9/27
vs NYJ
8
4
19
1
Splits
Season
Road
2025
vs MIA
Rec
7.6 (7)
7.7 (3)
6.9 (17)
–
Rec yds
81.6 (7)
95.3 (3)
82.4 (17)
–
Jameson Williams WR4.3 rec · 72.6 yds per game
Date
Opp
TGT
REC
YDS
TD
11/1
vs MIN
6
4
70
1
10/25
vs GB
9
5
91
2
10/11
@ ARI
4
2
47
2
10/5
@ CAR
8
6
102
0
9/27
vs NYJ
4
4
49
0
Splits
Season
Road
2025
vs MIA
Rec
3.9 (7)
3.3 (3)
3.8 (17)
–
Rec yds
62.4 (7)
60.7 (3)
65.7 (17)
–
Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis QB159.5 pass yds · 0.8 TD per game
Date
Opp
CMP/ATT
YDS
TD
INT
RUSH
11/1
vs NE
21/32
211
2
1
2
10/25
@ NYJ
14/21
208
2
0
37
10/11
vs CIN
15/27
137
1
2
74
10/4
@ MIN
9/17
85
0
0
11
9/27
vs KC
20/36
210
0
1
56
Splits
Season
Home
2025
vs DET
Pass yds
181.1 (7)
186.0 (3)
105.5 (4)
–
Pass TD
0.9 (7)
1.0 (3)
0.8 (4)
–
De’Von Achane RB79.1 rush yds · 3.6 rec per game
Date
Opp
ATT
YDS
TD
REC
REC YDS
9/27
vs KC
3
17
0
0
0
9/20
@ SF
20
74
0
3
19
9/13
@ LV
11
36
0
4
30
Splits
Season
Home
2025
vs DET
Rush yds
42.3 (3)
17.0 (1)
84.4 (16)
–
Rec
2.3 (3)
0.0 (1)
4.2 (16)
–
Caleb Douglas WR3.3 rec · 56.5 yds per game
Date
Opp
TGT
REC
YDS
TD
11/1
vs NE
6
4
43
0
10/25
@ NYJ
3
2
70
2
9/20
@ SF
3
2
19
0
9/13
@ LV
7
5
94
0
Splits
Season
Home
2025
vs DET
Rec
3.3 (4)
4.0 (1)
–
–
Rec yds
56.5 (4)
43.0 (1)
–
–
Greg Dulcich TE2.9 rec · 35.0 yds per game
Date
Opp
TGT
REC
YDS
TD
11/1
vs NE
6
4
43
0
10/25
@ NYJ
5
5
86
0
10/11
vs CIN
5
4
37
0
10/4
@ MIN
0
0
0
0
9/27
vs KC
7
5
55
0
Splits
Season
Home
2025
vs DET
Rec
3.1 (7)
4.3 (3)
2.6 (10)
–
Rec yds
36.6 (7)
45.0 (3)
33.5 (10)
–
Records
Team
Record
ATS
O/U
Home
Away
Lions
5-2
2-4-1
5-2
4-0
1-2
Dolphins
1-6
4-3
4-3
0-3
1-3
This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.
Recent form
Detroit Lions: last 10 (6-4, 3-6-1 ATS, O/U 6-4)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 1, 26
vs MIN
W 19-15
W -3.5
U 45.5
Oct 25, 26
vs GB
W 20-17
L -3.5
U 55.5
Oct 11, 26
@ ARI
W 45-21
W -4.5
O 55.5
Oct 4, 26
@ CAR
L 26-32
L -3.5
O 52.5
Sep 27, 26
vs NYJ
W 31-24
P -7
O 49.5
Sep 17, 26
@ BUF
L 31-41
L +5.5
O 54.5
Sep 13, 26
vs NO
W 31-30
L -7
O 49.5
Jan 4, 26
@ CHI
W 19-16
W +3
U 51.5
Dec 25, 25
@ MIN
L 10-23
L -7.5
U 45.5
Dec 21, 25
vs PIT
L 24-29
L -7.5
O 52.5
Miami Dolphins: last 10 (2-8, 5-5 ATS, O/U 6-4)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 1, 26
vs NE
L 19-24
W +7
O 41.5
Oct 25, 26
@ NYJ
W 28-25
W +3.5
O 39.5
Oct 11, 26
vs CIN
L 24-31
W +7.5
O 45.5
Oct 4, 26
@ MIN
L 10-15
W +10
U 38.5
Sep 27, 26
vs KC
L 10-24
L +10
U 45.5
Sep 20, 26
@ SF
L 13-35
L +12.5
O 44.5
Sep 13, 26
@ LV
L 13-27
L +3
U 40.5
Jan 4, 26
@ NE
L 10-38
L +14.5
O 43.5
Dec 28, 25
vs TB
W 20-17
W +5.5
U 44.5
Dec 21, 25
vs CIN
L 21-45
L +3.5
O 48.5
Injury report
Detroit Lions
Giovanni Manu (OT): NFI-R, The Lions moved Manu
Kerby Joseph (S): PUP-R, Joseph
Kendrick Law (WR): IR
Isiah Pacheco (RB): IR, Lions coach Dan Campbell said Friday that Pacheco
Payton Turner (DE): IR, ir
Damone Clark (LB): IR, Detroit placed Clark
Avonte Maddox (CB): IR, The Lions placed Maddox
Ben Bartch (G): IR, The Lions placed Bartch
Thomas Harper (S): IR, The Lions placed Harper
Tom Kennedy (WR): IR, The Lions placed Kennedy
Devin White (LB): IR, The Lions placed White
Jacob Saylors (RB): Questionable, Saylors
DJ Wonnum (LB): Out, Wonnum
Cade Mays (C): Out, Mays
Jack Campbell (LB): Out, Campbell
D.J. Reed (CB): Out, Reed
Jimmy Rolder (LB): IR, Rolder
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): Questionable, St
Sione Vaki (RB): Questionable, Vaki
Miami Dolphins
Darrell Baker Jr. (CB): PUP-R, Baker
Rene Konga (DT): IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB): IR, The Dolphins placed Harrison
De’Von Achane (RB): IR, The Dolphins placed Achane
Kaytron Allen (RB): Questionable, Allen
Jaylen Wright (RB): Questionable, Wright
Trey Moore (LB): IR-R, ir
Cole Turner (TE): IR, Turner
Malik Herring (DE): Questionable, Herring
Matchup ranks
What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.
Lions defense
Dolphins defense
Points allowed per game
25.7 (22nd of 32)
25.9 (24th of 32)
Passing yards allowed per game
298.7 (32nd of 32)
230.9 (13th of 32)
Rushing yards allowed per game
96.6 (10th of 32)
113.1 (17th of 32)
Receptions allowed per game
27 (32nd of 32)
21.4 (15th of 32)
Venue and weather
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FLOutdoor
82°Fpartly cloudyWind 5 mphRain 3%
Forecast for the start time (Open-Meteo); it can change before the game.
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Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 10:32 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.
Line movement from the open
Line
Open
Now
Move
Dolphins spread
+6.5
+6.5
–
Total
47.5
49.5
+2
Lions moneyline
-270
-305
+2.3% win chance
Dolphins moneyline
+220
+245
-2.3% win chance
DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.
Line movement chart
Dolphins spread +6.5 → +6.5Total 50 → 50
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Cloudbet
BetMGM
prophetexchange
Greg DulcichTE, MIA
Chris BellWR, MIA
Malik WillisQB, MIA
Jared GoffQB, DET
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET
Jameson WilliamsWR, DET
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LEH