Maple Leafs vs Flames Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 26, 2026)

Toronto Maple Leafs logo

Maple Leafs7-6 · 7-6 ATS8th in the East
FINAL2 – 5
Calgary Flames logo

Flames4-6 · 4-6 ATS11th in the West

NHL · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · Scotiabank Saddledome

Final score by period

Team 1 2 3 T
Maple Leafs 0 1 1 2
Flames 2 1 2 5

How the bets settled

MoneylineFlames wonClosed at +114
SpreadFlames coveredFlames +1.5, by 4.5
TotalOver 6.57 scored, 0.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Calgary beat Toronto 5-2 on October 26, taking control with a two-goal first period and sealing the game with two more in the third. Matvei Gridin led Calgary with two goals and three points, while Matt Coronato added two assists. William Nylander scored and led Toronto with a point, and Morgan Rielly had an assist.

Calgary’s 34-28 shot edge, 6-3 takeaway advantage and 1-for-5 power play helped explain the result. Toronto blocked 16 shots and won 59.6 percent of faceoffs, but the Flames’ finishing and special teams made the difference.

For bettors, Calgary covered the 1.5 closing spread by 4.5, and the 6.5 closing total went over by 0.5. StatsBench’s posted picks split: Easton Cowan and Jack Roslovic over 0.5 points won, while Auston Matthews over 1.5 points and William Nylander over 0.5 assists lost.

How our picks did

  • Auston Matthews OVER 1.5 POINTS (+166): LOST (1)
  • Easton Cowan OVER 0.5 POINTS (+100): WON (1)
  • Jack Roslovic OVER 0.5 POINTS (-105): WON (1)
  • William Nylander OVER 0.5 ASSISTS (-115): LOST (0)

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

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Against the spread, start to finish

FlamesMaple Leafs
The score margin against the closing spread (Flames +1.5). Blue: Flames covering. Orange: Maple Leafs covering.
+0Largest TOR cover
0%TOR covering
+4.5Largest CGY cover
100%CGY covering

Top performers

Maple Leafs

  • GoalsWilliam Nylander1
  • AssistsMorgan Rielly1
  • PointsWilliam Nylander1

Flames

  • GoalsMatvei Gridin2
  • AssistsMatt Coronato2
  • PointsMatvei Gridin3

Team stats

Maple LeafsFlames
28Shots34
59.6%Faceoffs won40.4%
0Power play goals1
23Hits24
16Blocked shots4
3Takeaways6
12Giveaways13
19Penalty minutes13

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Teddy Blueger C 0 0 0 3 -1 14:27 23 1 1 1 0 0 72.7
Easton Cowan RW 1 0 0 1 -1 15:30 19 2 0 0 2 4 0.0
Brandon Duhaime RW 0 0 0 2 -1 11:11 18 3 0 0 1 0 0.0
Vinni Lettieri C 0 0 0 1 -1 11:54 12 3 1 0 0 0 0.0
Zack MacEwen C 0 0 0 2 -2 10:12 14 3 1 0 0 5 100.0
Kirill Marchenko RW 0 0 0 1 0 7:05 8 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Auston Matthews C 0 1 0 1 -1 19:00 19 1 2 0 0 4 46.2
Gavin McKenna LW 0 0 0 1 0 14:50 16 0 0 1 3 0 0.0
William Nylander RW 1 0 0 4 0 19:14 23 1 0 0 0 2 0.0
Nick Paul LW 0 0 0 1 -1 17:35 21 1 0 1 1 0 58.8
Jack Roslovic C 0 1 0 1 -1 18:43 21 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Colton Sissons C 0 0 0 1 0 14:17 19 2 1 0 0 0 75.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D 0 0 0 3 -2 19:14 23 2 0 0 2 0 0.0
Jake McCabe D 0 0 0 0 -1 18:17 24 1 3 0 0 0 0.0
Dakota Mermis D 0 0 0 1 0 13:33 19 2 2 0 0 2 0.0
Darren Raddysh D 0 0 0 3 -2 23:49 22 1 2 0 2 0 0.0
Morgan Rielly D 0 1 0 1 1 19:27 24 0 2 0 0 0 0.0
Troy Stecher D 0 1 0 1 1 22:04 22 0 1 0 1 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Sergei Bobrovsky G 3 32 0 0 29 .906 23 6 0 58:55 0 2

Calgary Flames

Forwards

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Mikael Backlund C 1 0 0 1 1 18:32 22 0 1 1 2 2 52.9
Jonathan Castagna C 0 0 0 1 0 10:20 16 1 0 0 1 0 10.0
Matt Coronato RW 0 2 0 2 2 18:44 21 0 0 0 0 0 66.7
Joel Farabee LW 1 1 0 2 2 24:08 24 2 0 1 0 0 0.0
Morgan Frost C 0 0 0 2 -1 16:11 19 0 0 0 0 0 25.0
Matvei Gridin RW 2 1 0 5 2 16:11 21 0 1 0 1 0 0.0
Adam Klapka RW 0 0 0 0 0 11:48 17 5 0 0 0 0 0.0
Brennan Othmann LW 0 0 0 1 -1 9:22 16 4 0 0 1 2 0.0
Martin Pospisil C 1 1 0 2 2 12:20 21 4 0 0 0 2 33.3
Yegor Sharangovich C 0 0 0 1 -1 16:47 21 1 0 1 0 0 100.0
Ryan Strome C 0 0 0 5 1 13:48 20 0 0 0 0 0 75.0
Aydar Suniev LW 0 0 0 6 -1 14:25 17 2 0 0 0 0 0.0

Defenses

Player G A SOG S +/- TOI SHFT HT BS TK GV PIM FO%
Kevin Bahl D 0 0 0 0 3 21:46 24 0 0 0 2 0 0.0
Yan Kuznetsov D 0 1 0 0 -1 13:57 17 1 1 1 1 0 0.0
Jake Middleton D 0 0 0 0 0 16:14 18 2 0 1 0 5 0.0
Simon Nemec D 0 2 0 1 2 21:51 24 1 0 0 2 0 0.0
Zayne Parekh D 0 1 0 3 -1 20:11 19 0 0 1 3 0 0.0
Zach Whitecloud D 0 0 0 2 1 17:47 20 1 1 0 0 0 0.0

Goalies

Player GA SA SOS SOSA SV SV% ESSV PPSV SHSV TOI YTDG PIM
Devin Cooley G 2 28 0 0 26 .929 16 3 7 59:38 0 2

Attendance 18,476 · Officials: Frederick L’Ecuyer, Trent Knorr, CJ Murray, Stephen Hiff

Recap: Matvei Gridin scores twice as Flames beat Maple Leafs 5-2 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

Betting trends

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Maple Leafs vs Flames pre-game preview

Monday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames matchup has Toronto as the -155 moneyline favorite, with Calgary at +1.5 on the spread and the total at 6.5, unchanged from the DraftKings opener.

The last meeting was February 2, 2026, when Toronto won 4-2 on the road. Toronto is 7-6 straight up and 7-6 against the spread this season, 6-4 and 7-3 ATS over its last 10, and most recently won 7-2 at Edmonton on October 24. Calgary is 4-6 straight up and 4-6 ATS, also 4-6 and 4-6 ATS over its last 10, and most recently won 4-1 against Detroit on October 24. In the last six head-to-head meetings, Toronto is 6-0 straight up but 1-2 ATS.

The most useful angles are Calgary’s defensive ranks and pace. Calgary’s goals allowed (3.9, 30th), shots on goal allowed (30.5, 29th) and points allowed (10.3, 30th) are bottom-tier, while Toronto is 14th in goals allowed at 3.08 and first in power-play points allowed at 0.46. Pace ranks second for Toronto at 58.6 and first for Calgary at 59.2.

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Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Maple Leafs 7-6 7-6 8-5 4-4 3-2
Flames 4-6 4-6 4-6 3-3 1-3

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Maple Leafs vs Flames head-to-head

Maple Leafs are 6-0, 1-2 ATS, O/U 2-1 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Maple Leafs won 4-2 on February 2, 2026.

Date Venue Maple Leafs result ATS O/U
Feb 2, 26 Flames home W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 28, 25 Maple Leafs home W 4-3 – –
Mar 17, 25 Maple Leafs home W 6-2 – –
Feb 4, 25 Flames home W 6-3 – –
Jan 18, 24 Flames home W 4-3 L -1.5 O 5.5
Nov 10, 23 Maple Leafs home W 5-4 L -1.5 O 5.5

Recent form

Toronto Maple Leafs: last 10 (6-4, 7-3 ATS, O/U 8-2)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 24, 26 @ EDM W 7-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 22, 26 vs NYR W 5-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ CBJ W 6-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 19, 26 vs SJ W 3-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs NYI L 1-4 L -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 15, 26 vs BUF L 4-5 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 13, 26 @ UTA L 4-5 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 10, 26 @ COL W 6-3 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 8, 26 @ VGK L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 6, 26 vs NSH W 5-4 L -1.5 O 5.5

Calgary Flames: last 10 (4-6, 4-6 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 24, 26 vs DET W 4-1 W +1.5 U 5.5
Oct 22, 26 vs MIN W 2-1 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 18, 26 vs CAR W 3-2 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 15, 26 @ VGK L 2-6 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 13, 26 @ ANA W 4-2 W +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 10, 26 vs ANA L 2-4 L +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 8, 26 vs COL L 3-7 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 4, 26 @ SEA L 1-6 L +1.5 O 5.5
Oct 3, 26 @ VAN L 1-4 L +1.5 U 6.5
Oct 1, 26 vs SEA L 1-6 L -1.5 O 5.5

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 3:58 PM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Maple Leafs defense Flames defense
Goals allowed per game 3.25 (20th of 32) 3.53 (27th of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game 29.31 (25th of 32) 29.8 (28th of 32)
Points allowed per game 8.75 (20th of 32) 9.53 (27th of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game 0.88 (2nd of 32) 1.6 (10th of 32)

Venue and weather

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, ABIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Maple Leafs vs Flames odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Flames spread +1.5 +1.5 –
Total 6.5 6.5 –
Maple Leafs moneyline -135 -135 –
Flames moneyline +114 +114 –

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Flames spread +1.5 → +1.5
Total 6.5 → 6.5
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More on these teams: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken Oct 28 · Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers Oct 28 · Detroit Red Wings vs Calgary Flames Oct 24 · Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers Oct 24 · All NHL prop picks

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